Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVI
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 23 2013 06:11 warbaby wrote: ![]() more than halfway full! Greetings SkaPunk, Sn0_Man, Acid~, and zarepath. I've enjoyed observing your play in Newbie XXXV (excepting SkaPunk of course). Hopefully this game won't have any smurf replacement/modkill drama! ![]() I now realize that all this time, we'd been playing in the spotlight. If I had known, I would've kept my pants on. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 26 2013 15:03 warbaby wrote: You're both right that aggression is useful for scumhunting when applied logically. It's also useful for crapping up the thread and distracting attention away from scumbuddies. We can deal with that when/if it happens. Acid~, your first post in XXXV was a lot more useful. I also had four or five pages of thread to analyze, it's illogical to expect the same kind of post when there's not even half a page yet. My original post said "being a jerk for no reason"; scumhunting is a good reason. Snoman already made this exact point. Is there a good reason you made this rather pointless post? Why would you assume I automatically agree with Snoman, especially without knowing either of our alignments? | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 26 2013 22:31 warbaby wrote: Why didn't you wait until there were 5 pages to review in this game before posting, then? Nobody forced you to make a 2 sentence post that sounds like a scum trying to blend in. Your assertion here is appears reasonable, but in fact this is a lame excuse. Because there was a discussion going on where two people had stated their opinion on an issue and I wanted to chime in with mine. I feel that's a perfectly valid reason to post. I assumed you agreed with snoman because you literally made the same point as snoman, just worded differently. Snoman also said some more stuff, which I feel contributed to the thread. What I think about your alignment is irrelevant to whether you made a quality first post, so I interpret this as a strawman. Are you dense or just vomiting words for the sake of it? You couldn't know my position until I mentioned it. If you think it's not valuable to know where people stand on issues, why the fuck would you make your first post specifically about issues? I'm still willing to believe I'm misinterpreting your posts. Please explain how you were contributing to the thread or why you felt the need to make such an effort-lacking first post (breaking with your recent town meta). If you were literally just being lazy, and felt the need to post something, then say so. If you felt you actually did contribute something that hadn't been said already, then I'll just have to take your world for it. And I'm not willing to believe you're doing anything but cluttering the thread with nonsense at this point, whether it's intentional or not. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 26 2013 11:16 warbaby wrote: I'd like to get this flawless town victory started by suggesting some ideas to promote a healthy town atmosphere:
GLHF everyone ![]() This reads a lot to me like a combination of Mocsta and Spag from XXXV: trying hard to look town ("flawless town victory"), pushing for LAL, and claiming a desire to promote a "healthy" town atmosphere, notably by discouraging agression. On January 27 2013 10:45 warbaby wrote: I don't agree. If someone pretends to scumhunt convincingly, they should appear to be the same as someone who is actually scumhunting. Just because Mocsta pretended effectively (for a while) in XXXV does not mean I'm doing the same thing. The way I see it, the only thing I can do to further address your other concerns is to play solid town, without being overly aggressive and feeding into your criticism. This seems reasonable so I'll give it a shot, unless you have a better suggestion, or some direct questions for me. Your point B is not possible for me to address further. You've made your point here, I gave my explanation before I realized I had broken the rules. Can we leave it at that? It seems like warbaby is trying really hard to be everybody's friend. He also claims he's trying to scumhunt, whereas Mocsta was only pretending, but where is the actual scumhunting? I see a lot of theoreticals, of talking about scumhunting and also a whole lot of defending his play trying to point out how he's not like Mocsta. If you are town and actually scumhuting, you don't need to claim it, it will show through your actions. And one of the ways it will show is you will not be afraid to pressure people. Warbaby has poked left and right at several different people, but it's been lukewarm. I don't see him inhabited by the righteous fire someone in his position should have. Except when he's talking about lurkers and urging people to post more. This is interesting because in a game where scum are active, targetting lurkers is a win-win strategy as you get to appear town while setting up a safe vote (you have plausible deniability - "hey sure he flipped town but he was a lurker, so essentially playing for scum!" On January 28 2013 00:28 warbaby wrote: Great point. I'm offering to cool my jets (for now) because I think sn0man has a legitimate complaint about controlling town. I totally don't agree with sn0man that scum hunting D1 is "rich", though. Would he prefer scum get a free pass D1? I would like others' take on this. Maybe there's someone else that sn0man would allow to scumhunt, without accusing them of being a Mocsta doppelganger? I didn't forget about you. You were manner enough to explain why your contributions were going to be thin D1. And the posts you are making are good. I don't like this because, again, it seems like trying too hard to be really friendly, on top of that he acts like he has a good excuse to stop being active and if anyone calls him on it, he can just say "weeell, snoman said I was too controlling so I'm just trying to be nice, you know, I'm a really nice guy really, I'm so nice I couldn't possibly be a scummy scum scum." On January 28 2013 00:39 warbaby wrote: Also, I'm with Glurio. ##Vote: SkaPunk SkaPunk has demonstrated that he is in fact capable of using the post box. Maybe if we pressure him some more, he'll actually contribute. But you're NOT pressuring him. Just making a vote is not pressure. You didn't ask him anything. You just parked your vote on a lurker. Safe play. On January 28 2013 04:53 warbaby wrote: I will certainly not be annoyed if we lynch a lurker and they flip scum. I don't think this will happen D1 though, due to the scum team's information advantage. Going by statistics it's most probable one of the 3 lurkers is scum, if one assumes lurkers are evenly distributed. There is a 1/3rd chance, if you assume scum is evenly distributed among the lurkers. I'm not sure this is a totally valid assumption, although it probably makes more sense than all of the lurkers being scum. This is wrong. In a 9 player setup with 2 scum and 3 lurkers, assuming even distribution, then we have 2/9 chances of lynching scum by choosing a player at random, whether we lynch a lurker or not. Lynching a lurker is only advantageous if you know that scum are more likely to lurk than to be active. But you can't know that. Well, not if you're town. If you're scum and you *know* that both scum are active, then it's statistically advantageous for you to lynch a lurker, obviously. Math warning:+ Show Spoiler + Assuming even distribution, there is a 6/9 chance of the first scum player being an active player, and then a 5/8 chance of the second scum also being active, this makes it 5/12 chance of both scum being active. Then you have a 6/9 chance of first scum being active, plus 3/8 chance of 2nd scum being lurker, coming down to 1/4 chance. Double it for the other way around, makes 1/2 chance (6/12) of having scum being split between actives and lurkers Finally, you have a 3/9 * 2/8 chance of both scum being lurker (1/12) Total 12/12 If you lynch a random active, you have the following chances of hitting scum: 2/6 out of 5/12 (case where both scum are active) 1/6 out of 1/4 (case one where scum are split) 1/6 out of 1/4 (case two where scum are split) 0 out of 1/12 (case where scum are both lurkers) 2/6 * 5/12 + 1/6 * 1/4 + 1/6 * 1/4 + 0 = 2/9 2/9 chances If you lynch a random lurker, I'll directly simplify but it comes basically to 1/3 * 1/2 + 2/3 * 1/12 which is also 2/9 Why do I insist on this? Because I think warbaby is deliberately misleading us and pushing us into a lurker lynch when he knows scum aren't lurking, trying to back it up with numbers that are wrong. Again, for the cheap seats: there is no statistical advantage to lynching a lurker, however if you make it seem like there is one and you direct your scumbuddies to not lurk, then you can fool town into a guaranteed mislynch while appearing perfectly reasonable. On January 28 2013 08:35 warbaby wrote: ##Unvote: SkaPunk ##Vote: abenson By glurio's metric, we should lynch scum, then scummy lurkers, then lurkers. If SkaPunk's single post was a scum trying to blend in then he's the worst scum ever. My (very weak) read on him is that he's town, but playing with extremely little effort so far. Pressure is apparently not getting a rise from him. Maybe he's not reading the thread, but one would really expect scum to put up some kind of defense when they're 2 hours (is that right?) from being lynched. So I'm going to vote for an actual 100% lurker. I like that Corazon didn't vote for SkaPunk. If Cora was scum, there's a chance he would have just bandwagoned SkaPunk right off the bat. So I'm voting with Cora. The same applies to Zarepath, but Zare's been less active than Cora so I feel it's a bit riskier voting with Zare (in case AFKing suddenly steps up his game). Speaking of pressuring people to get a rise from them, what the heck happened to Acid~? He defended himself from my bullshit aggression, then ignored Zare's question about LAL and peaced out. Now that the lynch on SkaPunk seems guaranteed, you hop off the wagon claiming a (small) townread but you don't push for your next target. You're perfectly content to let town lynch someone on which you have a town read. I'm going to stop the quotes here because there isn't much more to add. I still don't see you actually scumhunting like you claimed before. Just defending yourself, explaining your vote and discussing rules and theories and setups. No strong lead on who you think is scum, not even a FoS, just a vague notion that you "don't believe both scum are lurkers". A pretty easy assumption to make since now the probability of having 2 scum amongst 2 lurkers in an 8 player game is ~3.6% Anyway, I have to go back to work, will be back in >24hours but until then: ##FoS: warbaby | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 10:16 warbaby wrote: Oh well, I can't sleep. Acid making a hard analysis is not what's ridiculous. Failing to vote day 1, and then swooping in with an FoS is what I find slightly ridiculous. If Acid won't post his opinions about anybody else, then how are we supposed to get reads on him? And what's the point of making an FoS if you don't give other players enough content to make a read on you? Has Acid~ put in the effort to analyze anyone's play but my own? We don't have a single shred of evidence to the contrary. Why didn't Acid~ post a will before leaving N1? This makes it seem like he's very sure there's no chance of him being night killed. I encourage you guys to look at the case Acid~ and Sn0_man are making against me. But I also encourage you to look at their play objectively, with special attention at how much effort they've put into doing anything else. While it is my fault that I didn't warn about this, I don't think I can be blamed for my real-life job interfering with mafia. I analyzed only you because I didn't have time after I finished with you and I started with you because you were the first to attract my attention. I notice that you conveniently avoided to reply to what I think is your scummiest action so far: you took your vote off SkaPunk claiming you had a town read on him, yet despite your willingness to lead town you did not lead town away from a possible mislynch. Explain what happened with the stats on day 1. Option 1: you didn't check your math (it's retardedly simple math and you were way off), which makes you lazy, which as town is simply helping scum - aka treason. Option 2: you deliberately misled us in order to make a LAL vote more attractive than it should've been, so that we wouldn't lynch scum. Which is it? Also, you did not "scumhunt" by your interaction with Snoman and me. You talked and you were meek in your accusations. Explain the situations described above. Explain, or die. ##Vote: warbaby | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 10:57 cDgCorazon wrote: Now to the scumhunting part. The problem I'm having with Acid right now is that all he has done the whole game is tunneled Warbaby. I know he's going after his scum read, but most of his posts have been in his argument with WB and attacking WB. I made an argument against him asking for a reply, and it has completely ignored in his pursuit to have Warbaby lynched at all costs. Ignoring an argument is an automatic FoS for me. If he was town, why would he ignore an argument made against him. If he is truly innocent, he can explain his behavior, not ignore me and hope it blows over. FoS: Acid~ I didn't reply to your argument because it doesn't make any sense. Of course I automatically assume scumhunting is a good reason to be a jerk, that's exactly the point I was making. What is there to discuss? | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 11:02 warbaby wrote: Oh, hey Acid~, good of you to drop in. Thought you weren't going to be back for another ">24 hours". I'm not going to explain my D1 actions any more. I already explained them enough. Anyone who wants answers to Acid~'s questions are invited to review my filter. If anyone (other than Acid~ and Sn0man) are still not satisfied, I will answer their specific questions. If my was so meek, why did you get so pissed off at me in your second post of the thread, when I pressured you? ##Vote: Acid~ I still have my suspicions about Sn0man, but I can't see a town motivation in Acid~ voting me right now. Town is in good shape aftering dodging N1 kill, anyone throwing around votes right now should have put in enough effort to analyze D1 in it's totality, which Acid~ admits he has not even bothered to do. I managed to check the thread before going to bed, am I allowed to do this? Can I please have your permission to live my life how I see fit? My town motivation in voting you is because I think you are scum, I posted a big case against you and I want to see you talk and I want to see how other people respond to the case, because this gives me information on their and your alignment. This is pretty basic stuff, even for a newbie game. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 11:44 warbaby wrote: I criticize Acid~ for doing nothing but tunnel me and not even bothering to read the whole thread before voting. You seriously think it's good for a town to vote without reading the whole thread first? Making an FoS on me without reading the whole thread - OK fine. Voting for anybody before reading the whole thread - not OK. Your rejection of my response to Acid~ is valid. I'll review the thread and if I can find anything he's posted that I don't feel was already addressed in my filter, I'll explain it. I'm happy to answer questions, just not from Acid~ or Sn0man on their case against me, because I think it's a waste of time to defend myself further. Again, if anybody wants answers to the questions Acid~ is asking, they're right there in my filter. You just gotta take the time to read. I never said I didn't read the whole thread, you are lying again warbaby and it's not a good thing to do in your position. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
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Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 12:31 warbaby wrote: Gah, his case against me is such bullshit I want to break it down for you. Acid~ complains that I'm not actually scumhunting. This is an old complaint from his 3rd post in D1 that I've done my best to address. If he thinks my scumhunting is so bad, well, I'll just do my best to get better. Other than that, why is he trying to discourage me from scum hunting? What possible motive could that have? I'm not trying to discourage you from scumhunting, I'm asking you to cut the bullshit and scumhunt. This is not the first time that you misrepresent what I say. Acid~ rumbles about numbers that aren't even relevant anymore, since D1 was already over. This is what happened: I responded to Corazon's mistake and extrapolated on top of it. Corazon made a mistake, I didn't catch it and made some comments based on a false assumption. I believe Corazon shares the blame with me on this, so you can refer to his defense for more details. Maybe Acid~ with his amazing math skills could have helped clear things up AT THE TIME, but he didn't. There is no excuse is for this useless behavior. The numbers are relevant because they show that you (and corazon) made a "mistake". A mistake so bad that I caught it. I don't have "amazing" math skills, I'm a lit major. It was two Google searches to check the statistics claim: "calculating probabilities" and "how to multiply fractions". 15 minutes of work. Would take 5 for someone with a high school level in math. If you can't be assed to do that, then don't fucking call me useless. I was not around at the time because I was working and I'm not going to apologize to YOU for working. There's a reason I wasn't modkilled, so think about that for a second before bringing it up again. Acid~ says that he now has a strong scum read on me because using responding to someone else's faulty math is treason. I guess Corazon is a traitor too, then. Maybe he is and I'll look into that. Acid~ complains about my votes, but he didn't even vote D1, and then he voted D2 after admitting he hadn't read the thread. You're lying again. I never said I didn't read the thread. I did read the thread. In fact, you can see from the timestamps in my posts "re-reading the thread right now" (when you RE something, what does it mean, Einstein?) and then posting again 2 hours laters, after I finished RE-reading. Do you even logic? At all? Have you ever? I told myself I wasn't going to defend Acid~'s aggression any more. But his case is such horse crap that it makes him look scummy. He was already 3rd on my list of scum, but now he's #1. Sorry, but everything you say is bullshit from start to finish. You lie, you misrepresent and you attack me because you know that for a long time I'm not going to be able to defend myself. You're the most obvious scum there ever was, even worse than Spag last game. There is literally nothing you have ever said or done in this thread that was productive in any way. You still haven't responded to my case, btw. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 13:33 warbaby wrote: I don't accusing you of defending Acid~. I accuse you of not bothering to connect the dots and think for yourself. Of course I read your early posts because I've actually commented on them. In my filter. Which is there for you to read. I thought about it some more, and there is one town motivation Acid~ could have for voting me, which is to pressure me because he needs a better read. If that's his reasoning, I would have to rethink my case on him. I'm not saying I'll unvote him if, in 24 hours when he gets back from work (who works for 24 hours? isn't that illegal in germany?) he just says, "Yes warbaby I was pressuring you to get a better read." He needs think up some way to make actions that demonstrate this motive. He needs to literally make up for the fact that he blatantly broke the rules, and spat in town's face, by failing to vote D1. And so far he has not done that. Obviously in the last 24 hours I've slept for 8 of them, like a normal human being. I have work, and I have work-related obligations. This is not the place to discuss my personal life, I apologized for missing the vote and I won't do it again so just drop it. Also, you can try to goad me into a shitstorm but you're so transparent it's laughable. You can keep calling my country "Germany" if you want, it just makes me smile. I'm not 15. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 30 2013 07:57 cDgCorazon wrote: Alright, so after taking Acid's response into account, here is my action for D2 (barring something crazy). To me, this day has come down to "Should we lynch WB or Acid?". I believe that it has come down to this question for most others as it regards to the lynch. Warbaby's erratic behavior made me very suspicious at first, I must admit. However, his brashness and unwilling to unvote Acid (even though voting for him early is a terrible idea) actually gave me a better feeling that he was town. The biggest thing that a scum has to worry about is their reputation with the rest of the town. A scum knows that he has to make sure no one else thinks he is scum so he can push his agenda forward and not be under suspicion. A town player would not care how others think about them because he knows he is town and has nothing to hide. Warbaby's behavior has seemed to follow these ideals. If he was scum, he would've listened to me and halted his aggression way before he did. The FoS definitely would've been enough for him to listen to me. Scum are afraid of getting lynched, so even threatening a vote would be enough to shut a scum down. Since it didn't phase WB, I believe that he is town not being afraid of his image in order to get the scum lynched. On top of that, scum would not tunnel a town so hard because once the town flipped, the mislynch would be on the scum's head and the scum would be the next likely to go. On the other hand, Acid has been ridiculously dodgy the entire game. In a town where inactivity has been a problem, he has been part of the inactivity problem. He dodges my argument, and only after he is pressured about it does he say that it wasn't relevant. The timing of his defense is ridiculously shady, almost 2 days after the original pressure. If he wanted to call my argument out as BS, he should've done so at his first opportunity, not chosen to ignore it. Telling me that my idea is stupid is how town bounces ideas off of each other and becomes more efficient as a scumhunting machine. By ignoring it until pressured, it's basically him saying that he's dodging it still. The final straw is the voting history. Scum do not care who gets voted off as long as it's not one of them. WB voted, Acid didn't. There's no way Acid could not have spared 5 minutes to vote, even if he knew he was going to be working for a long shift. I don't buy the work stuff. At least jump on a wagon or vote no-lynch if you don't have time to vote. It's not being busy, it's disinterest in the vote. It's scummy. At the end of the day, would I rather vote for the town jester or the shady guy on the corner asking people if they want to have fun? For these reasons: ##Vote: Acid~ If anyone has any questions, feel free to let me know. This is getting ridiculous. First of all, I never said your argument wasn't relevant, I said it didn't make sense. And AGAIN, like I said, I didn't respond to it at first because I dismissed it. On the basis of it not making sense. I only replied to it just now because it seems you were about to use it as a justification for a vote and that was just silly. Second, I did not know I was going to be working that long when I got called and my work is more important than your mafia. That's just the way it is. If you really think inactivity is more of a scumtell than obviously scummy behavior, you're terrible at this game. And from I gather, you're not terrible at this game. Interesting. Just to sum it up: warbaby lies, twists my words in order to vote me AFTER I expose his scummy actions warbaby has a TOWN read on someone and lets that someone get lynched without a fight warbaby posts a LOT of posts with no content, only speculation and CLAIMS to scumhunt while never scumhunting Acid posts a case against warbaby explaining, WITH QUOTES AND PROOF, how warbaby is acting scummy Acid misses a vote because of work Can you, honestly, with a straight face, claim that you are town and believe Acid is the scummier player? | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 30 2013 07:43 Sn0_Man wrote: @Acid: There are 2 scum this game. Who is scum 2.0? we are well aware of your prime scum read, who is asleep atm anyways. Then where are we on the lynching of the first scum? I'm not going to get off warbaby's case until he flips or someone presents a stronger case on someone else. I have other scumreads but they're not as strong. There's no value in discussing them right now. IF I'm right about warbaby then I have a solid lead on the second one. If I'm wrong, then I have a different lead. Just going to leave this here for you: Corazon thinks warbaby's unwillingness to unvote me is a town tell. He also thinks the same thing from me is a scum tell. Why is that, in your opinion? | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 29 2013 13:42 warbaby wrote: Warbaby's case against Acid~ 1) He plays like shit day one If this is a scum tell, you really need to be the first to go. and fails to vote. 2) He comes back day 2, with a completely unacceptable excuse. If he has 24 hour work shifts, he should not be signing up for mafia games. Again, you are lying. That is not what I said, nor implied. Why are you lying so much? Who the fuck has 24 hour "shifts"? Do you not ever sleep? Or do you play mafia in your sleep? Actually, that would explain a lot. 3) He admits he didn't even read the whole thread, No, I didn't. Again, more lying. and pops a gigantic case (that largely echoes stuff Sn0man already said, so it's not like he even made that much effort -- mostly the math stuff is original, but I'm not even the one who fucked up the math in the first place). 4) The case is largely bullshit. I've also made a bullshit cases, to pressure people, but... 5) If he's trying to pressure me, it's a shitty way to do it, because he'll be gone for 24 hours. My goal was to get people talking about the case, that's what people do. But, I have to give you credit: your conveniently timed "argument" with Corazon managed to pull attention away from the case and bury it behind five pages of useless bullshit. | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 30 2013 02:04 warbaby wrote: I'd love to discuss what actually happened N1, which I see as a great win for town. Note that there is one variation of the setup that allows for both JK and Doc (if I'm not reading the wiki wrong here -- love to see our authority on math and statistics, Acid~, to contribute on this point, but he's probably won't bother responding to this post, assuming he ever reads it). If the blue is doc, should they claim? I don't think it was clairvoyant that nobody died N1 (and I think you sound like a sadscum by saying this), I think it was just damned lucky. Probably won't happen again, and there's a chance the Doc (if there is one) will be killed before they can do anything more useful. If the doc exists and claims, and scum kills them, we end up with a 100% confirmed town and a no kill on Night 1. Is this good for town? I'm not sure if this makes sense. I haven't put a lot of thought into reasons and possible results around town power role claims. Oh please stop with your incessant town-claiming bullshit. What is this post, aside from a feeble attempt to extract a blue claim so you have a target for tonight? | ||
Acid~
Thailand442 Posts
On January 30 2013 08:31 cDgCorazon wrote: Where in my case against you did I say you not unvoting for WB was a scum tell? The difference between your tunneling and WB's tunneling is that Warbaby has at least joined in the discussion about other players and other things. You've had two posts that did not have anything to deal with WB, and they are the two posts answering me. You also dodged my argument. If you thought it didn't make sense you would've said so. No one else said it was BS, so why didn't you say it? I told you both that if you were town, you would stop tunneling each other for the majority of D2. You insist on Warbaby being lynched, but how can we be sure of your town credibility if your scumhunting has only consisted of telling us why WB is so much scum? You both have been completely useless to us, and you guys tunneling each other 10 minutes into D2 is hurting the town. You've brought nothing to the table, and you dodged my argument. When it comes to you and WB being on the chopping block, I'd rather pick someone who has shown at least a slight flash of actual scum hunting more than one person, and is not afraid to call out BS on my arguments and does not act shady. I've already explained to you why I didn't respond to your argument. Why would I waste time on something that doesn't make sense? Why would any of the players? None of them said it was nonsense but none of them backed it up either, so...? I made a case against warbaby that was based on evidence. He made an OMGUS. Why should I be the one to establish town cred? Because I missed a vote? Like the lurker thing, this is hiding behind policy. If policy votes is all you care about, good for you. I want to actually play the game. If you can't see the value in my case, then fine. You go be clueless in your corner until I decide whether you're scum or retarded. | ||
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