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On August 25 2012 05:49 Toadesstern wrote: so we meet again mr BC. bets on who'll die first this time? Me, because I am terrible at mafia.
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On August 29 2012 02:09 Quatol wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2012 02:06 goodkarma wrote:ShiaoPi and I both /in on page 4... You missed us sorry cutie, fixed <3 I think you missed me as well I /in'd on page 1.
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Morning all. Just finished reading through the thread. I was thinking about whether Matt or BC were scum but Palmar answered that question for us. Obviously ##Vote:Mattchew.
So now we know Mattchew is scum we go onto his scumbuddies. BlackMamba is a fairly obvious target because he defended Matt pretty hard and went after BC who, barring a crazy scum tactic, is town. I'd like to hear from him now that we know Matt's claim was fake.
The other person I thought was really suspicious was Rewok because his one real post was the most useless shit I've ever seen. There is no point in posting reads on everyone if that read is, in all cases, null. He even goes out of his way to explain away the uselessness of his post:
A little about me: I like to be careful about my scumreads. I'll only give a scumread if I've got a VERY strong hunch. My goal isn't to lynch townies. It's to make sure we use each lynch to nail a mafia and get this game over with quickly. Also - with every townie left alive. I would like to see him say something actually substantial on someone.
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On September 04 2012 18:54 BlackMamba24 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 18:52 imallinson wrote:Morning all. Just finished reading through the thread. I was thinking about whether Matt or BC were scum but Palmar answered that question for us. Obviously ##Vote:Mattchew. So now we know Mattchew is scum we go onto his scumbuddies. BlackMamba is a fairly obvious target because he defended Matt pretty hard and went after BC who, barring a crazy scum tactic, is town. I'd like to hear from him now that we know Matt's claim was fake. The other person I thought was really suspicious was Rewok because his one real post was the most useless shit I've ever seen. There is no point in posting reads on everyone if that read is, in all cases, null. He even goes out of his way to explain away the uselessness of his post: A little about me: I like to be careful about my scumreads. I'll only give a scumread if I've got a VERY strong hunch. My goal isn't to lynch townies. It's to make sure we use each lynch to nail a mafia and get this game over with quickly. Also - with every townie left alive. I would like to see him say something actually substantial on someone. hear what? I rescinded my vote and was basically waiting for palmar to pm me back to let me know whether nosy neighbours know their role or not. i assume BC knew about it from asking palmar privately in the first place. i was never defending mattchew anyway, only saying that i had no reason to believe BC until he could prove mattchew was lying which didn't happen until just now anyway so it's nice of you to pop in after the fact and throw some suspicion on me for it don't be silly Ok, I guess I misread your intentions. I can see why, given the information available to you, you would be suspicious of BC's assertion that Matt was lying. Why do you think Maverick is scum if Matt is? He doesn't defend Matt just says he isn't comfortable lynching him given the current info which is pretty similar to what you did.
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On September 04 2012 19:40 Bill Murray wrote: @Milton another good catch. Notice the interaction with Doyouhas? Seems like scum coaching. "Hey, your vote on BM sucks"
We may have caught 4 scum on d1 that'd be remarkable Why would scum do their coaching in this thread where town could see it?
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On September 04 2012 22:46 Rewok wrote: @Hap - The reads where I say, "I'm leaning towards X for this player."
When I say Town Read or Mafia Read, it's gonna be a firm read as far as I can tell. I'm not looking to change or update my reads every 1/2 day. My goal is to make reads that stick, which simply requires more info than we're got so far. (Zero votes and lots of bickering.)
Why post a lot of them in the first place. Your read on everyone should start as a null read. If you have something to say about someone then fine but going through people who haven't posted yet or you have nothing to add on obscures what you actually have to say.
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On September 05 2012 02:15 Ottoxlol wrote: He not just fakeclaimed, he also asked everyone to do so He asked other millers to claim not for everyone to fake claim. You're making very little sense at the moment.
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On September 05 2012 02:40 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 02:19 Hapahauli wrote:
Don't get why this is suspicious. Did you read anything between those two posts? DarthPunk and BC addressed my question pretty well. Combined with sloOsh's post, I felt that BC's confidence in his read was enough to vote for mattchew (with BC essentially 1-for-1'ing himself and mattchew). So you voted Matt because of BC's confidence. ?! + Show Spoiler +On September 05 2012 02:31 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 02:15 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 05 2012 02:09 Toadesstern wrote:On September 05 2012 02:01 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 05 2012 01:50 Toadesstern wrote: People who know how to play post things, including fakeclaims as mafia all the time without checking with their buddies and they slip from time to time. If this was some random noob, fine but it's not, it's Mattchew. He most of the time knows what he's doing and certaintly doesn't need to check back with his buddies all the time.
Additionally in the most recent games I played as mafia I figured that a lot of mafia teams really only rely on the QT and really seldomly use other means of communication like IRC or skype which slows down communication A LOT. So in the most recent games I played as mafia pretty much everyone just did their own thing and you would only end up discussing things like who to kill at night or wether or not it's fine if you bus each other.
Again, if this was some random dude with 100 posts in his 3rd or 5th game of mafia fine, I'd agree he'd ask his buddies before doing something like this but Mattchew is not a random noob.
I could maaaaaaybe see him fakeclaim as tracker on purpose IF he knew millers are not self-aware to lure out additional fakeclaims but I don't really see that giving his answers. And if that really was the case it'd be the most stupid kind of play I've ever seen. That's literally the most retarded thing you could come up with but it's at least something I could come up with while the scenarios for a mafia who just slipped make a whole lot of sense My problem with this reasoning is why blue/assa bad play is more probable then scum bad play? Even if you think Matt is not likely to discuss it with his team, he can so why is it more likely? If he's scum he misread the rules then fakeclaimed without discussing it with his mates or they fucked up too. If he's a tracker/assa, he misread the rules then fakeclaimed. in hope of some probable targets (thinking the other assassin would likely claim or maybe even scum) Why is the first scenario is more likely by 19 people? :D I just don't see it. Tell me what I miss Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. He not just fakeclaimed, he also asked everyone to do so :D I wrote down my thoughts about the scenario where he is a tracker, or an assassin, why do you ignoring it? Does it go against your easy D1 lynch plan? sloOsh and your "I'm confident so I'm town lets keep arguing about nothing so everyone can see us active" then your selective answers put you right into my fos along with Hapahauli's strange voteswitch. Yeah, he blend in perfectly with everyone voting him 1) because, as already mentioned, that kind of play is the most stupid thing you could do as townie. It's like fakeclaiming a red check on someone because you think the guy is mafia. You just don't do that. Never. Ever. 2) Yeah and clearly I'm the guy trying to stop discussion. My filter just screams "don't talk about anything and just vote guys!"... 3) I'm not answering selective. I'm answering in a way that people have to think about what I'm posting. If they don't I'll realize that and frankly you're one of the people who are reading whithout thinking for at least a second what's actually in the post and you've just proven it again. So stop whining about answers and try to show the will to understand what's going on. 4) I said the fakeclaim has a purpose as mafia while it has none as town. The purpose as mafia would be to blend in if he assumes millers are self-aware. I never said it was successful. Another example of you not even thinking about what was posted and just answering in a hury. I don't like that. 5) I answered this with those 4 (now 5) bullet points to make it a little easier to understand from your point. Sorry, but you are still ignoring my question. I will make it easy on you: Why is it more probable to make a mistake as scum when you CAN have discussion about your actions with the other ones, then it is to make a mistake alone?
It isn't but you're assuming he did talk about it. Matt's the fake claim was the first post he made. Given that, there is a good chance that he decided to do it on his own without discussing it. There is also no reason for a townie to fake claim as his first post because there is no suspicion on him.
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People keep trying to save Matt by suggesting he is an assassin. It makes no sense for this to be the case. Sure he will be visiting people each night but barring being unlucky, they won't die. Even if that was the case he would be able to blue claim to save himself. Such an early claim is completely unnecessary as assassin. I would be more inclined to think he wasn't scum if he had actually tried to defend himself after Palmar's post but the fact he hasn't is the most damning thing of all. If he was an assassin there would be some worth in trying to explain the lie and save himself. As scum the silence is by far the best option because it gives town no info and lets them bicker amongst themselves while not actually doing anything. There has been a lot of time wasted on trying to figure out whether matt is scum even though the evidence strongly suggests he is. I think Ottox is scum and is using this bad situation for them to distract town with pointless discussion about whether Matt could be blue or could be an assassin. Gravan is most likely also scum because his only contributive posts are also trying to swing the discussion onto Matt possibly being an assassin. I think they both know they can't save Matt but are using it as a distraction. Gravan still voted Matt while arguing that he was an assassin so that he wouldn't stand out as having not voted for him. If Matt does flip scum (99% sure he will) we need to either vig shot or lynch (preferably the first one so we get rid of them as soon as possible) both Ottox and Gravan.
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On September 05 2012 20:51 Bill Murray wrote: i dont care what matt's role is at this point his original post is either a slip, or trolling
There seems to be a lot of people who do care. Even if he isn't scum his lynch gives us by far the most info.
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On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote: Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on.
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On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote: Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox?
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well this should be interesting
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On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote: [*]If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis. [/list] I can't see any town member being that paranoid. If that were the case surely they would have a good reason why they didn't think Matt was scum. Ottox's argument only needs a cursory glance to see its paper thin. I think because of how bad his argument is it's not aimed at saving Matt, I assume scum thinks it's impossible at this point, but to focus town's attention away from hunting any other scum members. Honestly unless Ottox has a very good reason for defending Matt he needs to die soon.
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On September 06 2012 03:34 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 01:18 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 01:01 imallinson wrote:On September 06 2012 00:47 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 00:36 imallinson wrote:On September 05 2012 21:40 Z-BosoN wrote: Allison, what kind of info do you think it gives? If he is scum it puts a lot of suspicion on the people who are still defending him, Ottox and Gravan are the ones I would be most suspicious of. If he isn't scum then it puts the people who were really pushing for his lynch under some suspicion Toad, BC possibly me and a couple others. Of course if he is scum BC is almost definitely town because there would be no reason to sell out your team mate so early on. I'd say it's the other way around lol. If Matt somehow manages to flip green or blue Ottox looks really bad. If Matt flips red, whatever, it's a null imo. I can see why you could think Matt flipping red wouldn't give info by assuming scum insta bussed Matt after Palmar's post. But how does him flipping town look bad for Ottox? well 24 out of 25 people agree that Matt needs to die. If that 1 guy telling us Matt is not mafia is right that looks awfully like someone having information he shouldn't have or how in the world is the guy supposed to come to the conclusion that Matt's got to be "not mafia" if everyone else agrees he is. - If Matt flips 3rd party Ottox needs to die 100% because he's a mafia who knew that Matt is "not Mafia" and tried to go for towncred.
- If Matt flips town Ottox probably needs to die because he's still most likely a mafia who thought he's getting towncred that way. I'm saying "probably" because it's possible that he really is the 1 out of 25 chance to be town but that's unlikely.
- If Matt flips mafia Ottox is either an incredible paranoid townie or an incredible ballsy mafia player. Both equally likely/unlikely (imo) and therefore the flip itself tells nothing so we have to resort to normal analysis.
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post. He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason, then looked at why a blue or assa would claim and found no good reason. So everyone condemned him as scum for some reason, I was amazed how can everyone let vote ppl without proper content and provide a possible easy wagon so I tried to get as much out of everyone why would they do that (lot of "he lied so hes scum"-> there is no content to discuss). If anything if he flips red every newb or scum will wagon on me, if he flips black/blue then we have at least a couple of ppl with content talking about him, I explained why I think he's more likely to be blue or black in my calculations but I never said that he is 100% not scum.
As quite a few people have said Matt isn't scum just because he lied. The fact that he disappeared for ages after Palmar's post without defending himself is much more damning than the actual fake claim.
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On September 06 2012 04:12 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 04:06 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 06 2012 03:34 Ottoxlol wrote:
I already told you my thought process, wtf is this post.
He claimed, I looked at why would a scum claim and found no good reason ---SNIP Stopped reading. Let's try again. You're telling me you couldn't find a benefit for scum to fake claim nosy neighbor? There is no good reason. It was dumb, I thought we already agreed on that. There can be if it were a self-aware miller game but if it would be there could be reason to claim it as blue or assa too.
OK
1) Yes it was dumb but that has no effect on his alignment. Scum can be just as dumb as town.
2) Matt obviously didn't know that millers were not self aware or he wouldn't have role claimed self aware miller. Whether the role actually exists or not is not relevant to this specific part of the argument.
3) As has been said countless fucking times already there is no reason for him to fake claim self aware miller as blue or assassin.
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On September 06 2012 06:36 Ottoxlol wrote: You did not answered why is it more probable to do this as scum then as assa or blue. You are still dodging it. You write a lot of spam but contribute negative, try to stop the discussion.
Seriously. For the last fucking time. That has been answered by toad and multiple other people in the thread. Just because you somehow have completely missed it doesn't stop it from being there. You are the one adding a shit ton of spam by not reading the responses to the questions you keep asking over and over again.
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On September 06 2012 06:45 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 06:44 grush57 wrote:On September 06 2012 06:34 Toadesstern wrote:On September 06 2012 06:28 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 06 2012 06:22 goodkarma wrote:@Ottox:First: On September 06 2012 04:53 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 06 2012 04:41 BroodKingEXE wrote:On September 06 2012 03:57 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 06 2012 03:49 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma Just because he is up on my suspicion bar does not mean that he is scum. He could very well be a bad townie. If he is, the only motivation he has for defending matt and attacking toad is that he actually thinks that toad is more suspicious than matt, and if so, he's doing a shitty job at explaining himself. Also, him being obnoxious doesn't contribute to his defense. At least I am not that retarded to attack someone on the ground of their first post that was clearly a joke. I already explained my motivation two post ago. If you need some help understanding it you can ask for it nicely You dont joke about scum reads. You're scum, because you are trying to derail a lynch and not trying to bring up another canidate. Real townie would create a case and present a new option, but scum dont want to give away to much and wont do that. They'll try to plug an easy lurker after a derail. You are wrong. A joke is fine when the game is just started and there is nothing. You say scum dont want to give away much. Thats my main concern too, no one has to add anything to why they vote Matt, thats why i am trying to get ppl to talk about it. The problem with joking is that when you say something and then go back and say "just kidding," people don't know if you're a scum trying to cover up a blunder, or a townie who really is joking. That's why "joke" posts really aren't a good idea, as they do nothing to scumhunt. And if you're town, it's a fast track to getting suspicion placed on you all game long... Second: On September 06 2012 03:54 Ottoxlol wrote: Toad, I asked about the vote on Matt and he told me a bunch of things but dodged the question for 8-9 times.
Those who started focusing on Gravan but ignored me.
Those who voted Matt with a one liner. I asked for your top scumread, and this doesn't cut it. Blanket accusing everyone who focused on Gravan but not you, as well as those who made one-line cases for Mattchew is not constructive. Like why is it that those who focused on Gravan alone are suspicious? You've never discussed this at all, and it requires further explanation. And if you're going to discuss Toad as a top scumread, then please take more than one line to elaborate on it. I was not the only one joking in the first half an hour, grush, Hapa, Toad made jokes too. So about Toad, he was active a lot but failed to make a case on why is he voting Matt. You can see our conversation in our filters, This is why I ask the same question again and again to get scum answer too. You guys are blinded by scum talking bs in the thread. Wtf. How is that: On September 05 2012 00:45 Toadesstern wrote:On September 05 2012 00:29 strongandbig wrote:On September 04 2012 23:52 Maverick32x wrote: I voted for Matt due to the lying- but I would be curious to hear if he has a defense of some kind?? lol. If matt was going to defend himself he would have said something by now other than "hey guys maybe I'm a VT trying to draw scum shots lol". I've played a bunch of games with Mattchew recently and based on those, I think this is him as scum. For example, if I were going to fakeclaim miller as scum, I would do it very differently. However, you have to remember a couple things about Mattchew: - he's lazy as fuck as scum, except in themed games - he's pretty aggressive as town a lot of the time. The example I was thinking about was from him in TL Mafia LV, where he and I were both town. He lied about taking a shot, and then when I suggested that it made no sense for him to take a scum shot and he might have been vigged, he attacked me like a moron for the rest of the game. Unlike that, in this game his lie doesn't have any follow-up. If it was a planned-out pro-town lie, which I imagine is what he'll pretend it is, he would have been all over the first few people to attack him. Instead he just disappeared. It seems much more likely that what he did was the same thing I did in deathnote - claimed miller without first asking the hosts whether millers are self-aware, and got caught for it. The difference is, I did it in a game with a closed setup. ##vote: mattchew yeah Matt really is someone who's really in your face both as a townie and a mafia. He's incredible aggressive and / or borderline insulting if people don't think the same way he does. As mafia he's telling people to shut up and that he doesn't need to explain his reads a bit because people are to retarded to understand it anyways when he knows he's right about something, e.g. when he's bussing a buddy, defending a townie to get towncred or geniunely meant something another way and people are misinterpreting what he said due to a type or something like that. As Town he does the same when he heavily think's he's right or when someone misunderstands him. His calm and almost not existing involvement here defenitly is not what matt does when somethings "wrong" according to him. That either means he acknowledges that he screwed up as a town or that he acknowledges that he screwed up as a mafia and doesn't think it's going to help anymore. As already mentioned I don't see a reason at all for a town to fakeclaim like this and combine that with him "giving up" and you're good to go. + On September 04 2012 23:21 Toadesstern wrote:On September 04 2012 22:55 Ottoxlol wrote: Why so many people jump to vote Matt?
Whatever is his alignment he fucked up. Does this makes him scum?
Matt thought Noisys are aware of themselves. He has some kind of role. This is all we know.
If he's blue he could have done it to protect himself from scum.
If a scum would fakeclaim I think he would discuss it with his team first and do you all think every scum missed this thing? I highly doubt it. If anything Matt is a blue or assa.
This just provides an easy wagon to jump onto and removes d1 discussion as a whole, no town benefit from that. Just because he did not play well it doesnt mean he's scum. a blue doctor, jailkeep, Tracker, Watcher or Vigi however has no reason to be afraid. Maybe a Mad Hatter would be hard to explain but I'd doubt someone would want to fakeclaim as miller like that as a Mad Hatter. Picture the situation you're in as a blue: We have trackers and Watchers. What happens is that at some time someone could say "Hey guys, Matt visited X at night Y". If he's a doctor, tracker or a watcher that's no problem at all because the target in question didn't die. We want to know who visited people who ended up being dead. If he's a doc there's actually a chance he ended up saving someone and that someone could even confirm that. If he is a tracker or a Watcher he is able to claim the results, something Mafia is not able to do. So a Doc, Tracker or a Watcher are all perfectly fine and there's no reason to fakeclaim like this. A Jailer can somewhat confirm himself as well as the target he visited ended up being roleblocked every single night. It's only "somewhat" because a mafia RB is possible as well but after all if he's a Jailer he's again only going to visit people who ended up surviving the night. A vig is somewhat tricky as it's an extremly easy fakeclaim for mafia to do but as long as you claim prior to the deadline everyone's going to be fine with that. A Mad Hatter is, like a vigi somewhat tricky but as everything else you visited people. That in itself is not a reason to be suspicious of someone and the Mad Hatter is most likely going to visit people who ended up surviving as well unless either the Hatter decides to go after townish looking people for whatever reason or mafia decides to go after bad looking townies for whatever reason. tl;dr: There's not a single scenario in which a fakeclaim as a blue makes sense. At least I can't think of one because you won't end up being tracked to a kill in pretty much all the cases. On top of that noone is going to be stupid enough to out someone who visited a guy who's still alive because that's basicly outing medics / tracker / watcher in most of the cases. However there are a bunch of good reasons to fakeclaim this as mafia if you forgot that millers / NN are usually not self-aware in 90% of the games and just did it because he recently played a game with self-aware millers. I think Bang-Bang mafia was one of those for example. So there's a shitton of explanations from a mafia point of view. The only possible explanation from a town point of view would probably be "reversed psychology" although you're making yourself a target doing so, which isn't what a blue wants to do either unless he's a Hatter d2 or later. + On September 05 2012 02:09 Toadesstern wrote:On September 05 2012 02:01 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 05 2012 01:50 Toadesstern wrote: People who know how to play post things, including fakeclaims as mafia all the time without checking with their buddies and they slip from time to time. If this was some random noob, fine but it's not, it's Mattchew. He most of the time knows what he's doing and certaintly doesn't need to check back with his buddies all the time.
Additionally in the most recent games I played as mafia I figured that a lot of mafia teams really only rely on the QT and really seldomly use other means of communication like IRC or skype which slows down communication A LOT. So in the most recent games I played as mafia pretty much everyone just did their own thing and you would only end up discussing things like who to kill at night or wether or not it's fine if you bus each other.
Again, if this was some random dude with 100 posts in his 3rd or 5th game of mafia fine, I'd agree he'd ask his buddies before doing something like this but Mattchew is not a random noob.
I could maaaaaaybe see him fakeclaim as tracker on purpose IF he knew millers are not self-aware to lure out additional fakeclaims but I don't really see that giving his answers. And if that really was the case it'd be the most stupid kind of play I've ever seen. That's literally the most retarded thing you could come up with but it's at least something I could come up with while the scenarios for a mafia who just slipped make a whole lot of sense My problem with this reasoning is why blue/assa bad play is more probable then scum bad play? Even if you think Matt is not likely to discuss it with his team, he can so why is it more likely? If he's scum he misread the rules then fakeclaimed without discussing it with his mates or they fucked up too. If he's a tracker/assa, he misread the rules then fakeclaimed. in hope of some probable targets (thinking the other assassin would likely claim or maybe even scum) Why is the first scenario is more likely by 19 people? :D I just don't see it. Tell me what I miss Because there's no reason to fakeclaim as tracker. As a mafia you blend in as a townie. not explaining why I'm voting Matt? Stop lying dude Ottox has no idea what he is doing or he is scum. I am trying to get ppl to talk about why they voted Matt. So far I got Toad as scum from that. What have you done mate?
Everyone knows why people voted Matt. He lied and never defended his lie when BC called him out on it and then disappeared when Pamlar posted that it was a lie. Asking everyone why exactly they voted for Matt is pointless because you get the same answer from everyone. So no, you didn't get that toad was scum and you have actually done nothing but shit up the thread.
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On September 06 2012 07:19 Z-BosoN wrote:Uh, bill, aren't you forgetting someone? For someone who said: You sure quickly forgot him when you were making your little list... Even if Ottox isn't scum (I'm pretty sure he is) he needs to die, preferably night 1.
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