Missed the last newbie mafia, time for another one :D
Newbie Mini Mafia XXII
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Missed the last newbie mafia, time for another one :D | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
Some questions:
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
]b]Questions: How do mason work? This is my guess: [A] Mason:Townie Pairs 1) Masons are selected at the start of the game. 2) They will be given a random townie, and the link for the QT. 3) The selected townie will also receive the link for the QT. 4) Mason and townie relationship is 1:1. 5) If there are 2 Masons, each of them has a separate QT, that allows each pair to chat with each other, but it is in isolation with other pairs. Mason Underground Society 1) Masons are selected at the start of the game 2) All selected masons will be given the same QT link 3) Selected masons can chat in private, and there can be n >= 2 masons. Which one more accurately describe the mason role? Or are they totally off? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
On July 25 2012 09:31 Promethelax wrote: Are Millers self aware?..wait...are there even Millers? I don't think we have Millers in this game. There are Masons tho. Regarding townie roleblocker. Normally the townie roleblocker is a jailer, and it does more than just role block: it also prevents the target from being targeted by other players. So our townie roleblcoker merely role blocks: it does not grant immunity to the blocked player? | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
GLHF all. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@My stance on Day 1 Lynch I am strongly against day 1 no lynch. Scums starts with an information advantage while townies starts without a clue. I believe by pushing a lynch can lead to more clues (e.g. vote pattern like Shady mentioned). The best outcome, of course, is to get a scum kill, but as long as we don't mislynch a blue, it would still fairly benefit town overall. @Blue role discussion There is no reason to talk about blue actions at this point of time. I suggest we drop it and focus on scum hunting instead. @Lurkers Lurkers are bad anti-town play. Also, based on circumstances, lynching a scummy lurker is the best outcome. Look at my previous game for correctly lynching a scum lurker in day 1. I partially blame town lurkers for causing town to lose in my previous game, especially when we got 2 mafias in the beginning of day 2. (Correct d1 lynch + correct n1 vigil kill). @My policy I think we should be careful not to base our cases on speculations and far fetched logic. I will look for both townie and scum motives that fits in a person's action and weight accordingly. Also, that also means unless I am certain of your alignment, I am going to doubt every single word you say. @Mordanis's case on Keirathi I think Mordanis reads too much into Keirathi's first post. From what I have read, he is merely suggesting roleblocker not to use its power just because they can, its like telling vigilante not to shoot night 1 without a good reason: there is nothing wrong with it, at least not in the light Mordanis put him in. Mordanis also put words into Keirathi's mouth, say he "soft claimed" roleblocker when I don't read it as such no matter what. While this is scummy, I could also interpret this as an over-sensitive town play, and both are as likely. Ninja'd I started writing this post at 9:30 a.m. and is currently it is 11:30 a.m. due to work, and it takes a long time for me to type things out. I refreshed to forum I see Mordanis is currently under fire for his post. After reading Darth's case I don't think he is a good day 1 lynch for the following reason.
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
After reading Darth's case I don't think | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Mordanis My argument for Mordanis is that he is the first person who throws out a case. Loosely quoting someone else in my previous game: the scum hunting starts when one person build a "meh" case against another player with "meh" reasoning. It would not make sense for scum Mordanis to trigger the scum hunt while putting himself in the spot light. That said, the problem I had with Mordanis is he is reluctant to give up on his case against Kei despite how other people has pointed out how weak it was. (Refer to his second case) It seems like he is trying to start a bandwagon on a random townie based on their first post. This part caught my attention: All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch Why would you want to find out who is blue or not? That is not the priority here. Are you suggesting it is okay to lynch Kei because he is not blue? What do townie possibly gain from trying to find out who is "not blue"? TL:DR Townie Mordanis characteristics
Scum Mordanis characteristics
I originally had a slight town read on Mordanis, but now I am inclining to think Mordanis is possible scum. ##FoS Mordanis However, I am still reluctant to jump on the bandwagon, mainly because I haven't gone through everyone else's filters, and there a handful people that have yet to produce anything of significance for any analysis whatsoever. I will do so when I'm off work a few hours later. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I was kinda thrown off when Golbat decides to unvote Mordanis because he started off having high confidence that he is scum. His "I am a newbie post" also contributes to my suspicions on him. I quickly dismissed them because I still have my FOS on Mordanis and he did a case on Golbat too. Now that Ange777 has mentioned it, I would like to ask Golbat, what makes you think that Mordanis is not scum anymore? To me, his only "townie points" is that he is the first player who built a case, but that's about it. Is there some "obvious" reason that I missed? Every time I re-read Mordanis's posts I am more convinced that he is scum. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Mordanis You said:- + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2012 19:07 Mordanis wrote: What is it that has changed your mind? You went from "Mordanis could go either way, started scumhunt but didn't agree with everyone" to "scum", without saying what changed your mind. In fact I just want to point out that if internal contradiction is grounds for lynching, I think pretty much everyone's dead D1. And I really do want to know why Alan is suspicious of me, because I see one mistake (over-pursuing my case on Keir), and I'd argue that this post is equally a mistake. So I wait patiently. What is it that has changed your mind? You went from "Mordanis could go either way, started scumhunt but didn't agree with everyone" to "scum", without saying what changed your mind Refer to the quote below. When I think you were slightly town it was before you posted your second case.I know that was posted AFTER your second case, but in all honesty I did not read it as I click on "post". I did another evaluation on you so you can see from my quote below. On July 27 2012 16:22 alan133 wrote: This is my read on Mordanis @Mordanis My argument for Mordanis is that he is the first person who throws out a case. Loosely quoting someone else in my previous game: It would not make sense for scum Mordanis to trigger the scum hunt while putting himself in the spot light. That said, the problem I had with Mordanis is he is reluctant to give up on his case against Kei despite how other people has pointed out how weak it was. (Refer to his second case) It seems like he is trying to start a bandwagon on a random townie based on their first post. This part caught my attention: Why would you want to find out who is blue or not? That is not the priority here. Are you suggesting it is okay to lynch Kei because he is not blue? What do townie possibly gain from trying to find out who is "not blue"? TL:DR Townie Mordanis characteristics
Scum Mordanis characteristics
I originally had a slight town read on Mordanis, but now I am inclining to think Mordanis is possible scum. ##FoS Mordanis However, I am still reluctant to jump on the bandwagon, mainly because I haven't gone through everyone else's filters, and there a handful people that have yet to produce anything of significance for any analysis whatsoever. I will do so when I'm off work a few hours later. [/spoiler] Also, unless I missed it, you have not address my accusation against you, correct? Especially this part: + Show Spoiler + All I said was that he isn't blue. Which leaves the two possibilities of him being scum or VT, which everyone seemed to interpret as pushing for a lynch Why would you want to find out who is blue or not? That is not the priority here. Are you suggesting it is okay to lynch Kei because he is not blue? What do townie possibly gain from trying to find out who is "not blue"? Can you explain a possible town motivation for this? Also, the reason why you were getting more and more suspicious to me. You wrote a counter-case against Golbet, and went so far as to counter-vote him. I thought it was actually decent if you were town. However, you failed to follow through, you did not apply any pressure on your target whatsoever. So yea, if you're asking what makes me think you're scum the more I reread the filter, there you have it. @Ange777 Mind you I am a paranoid person when it comes to playing Mafia, so if you're asking me what do I think, I would say Mordanis appears to be more scummy to me, but I also read Golbat's play as slightly scummy. However I did not go after Golbat lynch because Mordanis is after Golbat, and I don't see both Mordanis and Golbat being scums together. Hence I logically assume Golbat's is a townie playing badly. (Ignoring WIFOM/bussing) Since someone else (you) flashed Golbat out, I would also like take the opportunity pressure Golbat clearing my doubts. @Golbat As of now, I am letting you slide. I am not building a case on you, merely wanting you to convince me why Mordanis isn't what I think he is. I am heading home now, will be back within an hour. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady I skimmed through Shady's filter since other people has rise suspicion, and I found this: I think this is pretty important to parse through, because it makes me want to refrain from lynching Mordanis until day 2 or 3. I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa. I honestly dislike this. It seems like he is pushing to lynch Golbat if Mordanis flips town. Is there something I missed? How are you convinced that scum must be in one of them? For all I know it is possible that both could flip town. I have came out with 2 explanation: A town Shady could have just simply overlooked this possibility, while a scum Shady could be trying to get 2 mislynch knowing both are town.I think both scenarios are equally plausible. It also seems like he is advertising "lynching the other player if one flips town" all over his post. However, it also make me thinks that it is too careless for a scum Shady to do this. TL;DR I am indifferent about Shady's alignment @Golbat The thing that raised my brows is his sudden backing off Mordanis without a satisfying reason. He do stated that he stood back and realized he is rushing towards things. However, this does not automatically discredit the scummy traits we caught on Mordanis. That said, I believe that he is being honest about his feelings and it is reasonable for him to back off. TL;DR I am not comfortable with lynching Golbat @Mordanis I think you misunderstood me. I was asking why do you need to mention if someone is blue or not. I am not saying you're trying to lynch a "blue". I am suspicious of you because you actually care who is blue. I see this as mainly scum motivated. Also, this is a list of things I based my suspicion on you.
Like I mentioned, your first post actually gives me a slight town read on you despite it is based on a far fetched reason, and being the first to make a case that's actually a town favoured trait. However, your later posts shows that you are not ready to back down from your weak case, and go so far as to say something like "Kei must not be Blue", why would you even care if Kei is blue or not? Even in the Townie PoV I suggested in my list, you are trying to say it is okay to lynch Kei, which is anti-town at best. We lynch people because he acted scummy and is possible scum, not because you think it is "okay" to lynch him. You also mentioned you never wanted to lynch Kei. That totally took out the "Townie PoV" I suggested, which means you are trying to hunt for blue roles, unless you can provide me with another reason why Townie would want to go "Player X is not a Blue". I personally thinks it is a scum slip on your part. TL;DR I think Mordanis is the best lynch candidate right now Also, I would like to call out MrMedic, Obvs and aRyuujin. While I am not saying these three people must be scum, I hope they contribute more so we can hear more from them. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I disagree that we should focus on lynching lurkers at this point of time. We have better lynch targets out there, so I suggest we focus on them. The problem with lynching lurkers day 1 is that it is much harder to make the correct call this early on. Later into the game, townies get more information so we can make a better decision when it comes to low content poster. Also, when it comes to lurking, there are two types of them: 1) Those that post very little, and 2) those that post a lot of junk post. I suggest we drop the lynch lurker discussion and go on scumhunting. It is fine if you want to call out a lurker but with better evidence other than "he lurks". The first successful lynch we got in my last game was a lurker, and despite having very little post count they are all really scummy. The reason you voted aRyuujin also fits in a few other players, MrMedic, Keirathi and Zorkmid to name a few. You addressed one more point why you intend to lynch him instead of the others:
I don't think you should pursue a aRyuujin lynch as of now, a few players have argue that they are not in favor of a lurker lynch (That includes me). I skimmed through his post and the scummy thing I got off him is his poems, which he stopped doing. Current Situation That said, I am feeling very uncomfortable with how the game is progressing. Compare to my first game, the activity level is really poor, and the "active posts" were mostly about Mordanis, Golbat and Shady, based on what has been brought up since 24 hours ago. Also, I did not count, but the impression I got was that is set to be lynched. I feel discouraged because I read Golbat is the least scummy one, of all 3. So I did a re-read on all their filters. Shady I went through Shady's post. Skimming through his filter reminded me of this eerie feeling when I read about his policies and advices, which a few other players have highlighted, so I am not going to repeat after them. There are also one other post in his filter that I am not a big fan of: I'd go with Golbat right now as I think lynching him does one of two things: 1) He flips red, in which case we've gotten a D1 red lynch which puts us in the 75% win range 2) He flips green or blue, in which case Mordanis will be under quite a bit of pressure Like I said, our focus is to lynch a scum, not what happens if player x flips scum. This is the kind of post that got Scum killed in my first game. However, the severity aren't as bad as the one since it is not a list of "what if we kill this player". Also, although my last game has a successful day 1 lynch, I thought Shady just missed it since there are so many games out there. However, Mordanis' did a list of day 1 lynch and from there I saw day 1 scum lynch is not as uncommon as stated. I originally think Shady's willingness to do his research on other games is a townie trait, and I did not put my pressure on him because of this. However, with this new information, I believe Shady lied. TL:DR I am slightly inclined to believe he is Scum. Golbat After re-reading Golbat's filter, my stance on Golbat is townie remain unchanged. Here is my defence for him. Golbat reminds me of my first game. I basically was wishy-washy because I believe we shouldn't jump to conclusions and town is going after me because of that. I spent most of my entire day 1 defending myself. Someone mentioned Golbat spent most of his time explaining why he is town. I say this is a normal newbie townie reaction when people is after you. Golbat's pulling out of Mordanis' case is his biggest scum tell. However, follow this logic: Assuming scum Golbat. Why would he pull out? There are 3 more players after Mordanis if I am not wrong. Assuming Mordanis is town, he could have easily gotten a mislynch. Also, if Golbat is red, pulling out means he would not want to associate himself for pushing for a mislynch. Why would he blatantly say that? So that all of you would jump on him? Town sided Golbat would fit in this behaviour. However I also want to add that lynching aRyuujin could potentially be a boon to town because his writing in haiku is really really annoying and despite vomiting poems all over the thread, he has hardly said anything original or useful. I maintain my position that our focus is to lynch a scum, nothing else. However, reading through this thread I found quite a few players doing it, and obviously they all can't be scum. I suggest focus on scum hunting with what information we have now, instead of thinking what information we could get if we lynch the person TL:DR I am against lynching Golbat. Mordanis His post has improved after the ones that accuse Kei for being not blue. Also, he went so far as to check on other games just to find out if Shady is lying, suggested that he is willing to go through the trouble to scum hunt someone for what he said. There is also scum sided explanation: he could be a scum over-committed to twist every word to get a mislynch. However, I think the later is less plausible. With him being the first one to start the scum hunt game, I am willing to overlook the part where he "cares about who is not blue". TL:DR I am swayed to believe Mordanis is less of a scum, I am not a big fan of lynching him right now As the dead line is approaching, I suggest we narrow down the lynch targets. I believe we need at least 7 votes to lynch. I am strongly against no-lynch. That said, I would like to commit my vote to: ##vote: Shady_Sands based on the reasoning above. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
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alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady While your defence sounded solid, it comes to do whether if we believes if you are lying about the statistics or not. While I don't find it hard to believe, the problem I had with your post is that you believe random lynch would benefit the town better than actual scum-hunting-based lynch. + Show Spoiler + So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing: Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did. Proof check edit: I re-read and realized you could be saying that statistically speaking you should be able to find more successful case than none. With this explanation, given that you are not lying, it makes me feel very bad to leave my vote on you right now. Also, while I only noticed when Ange brought it up, he has pointed out that contradiction you made. Although I don't believe contradictions were scum tells, I would like you to explain why Golbat and Mordanis can't both be town? The only conclusion I could draw from this is that they (appears to) not trust each other. @Golbat Re-reading his filters makes me worry. While I still believe he has the least chance to flip scum as compare to Shady or Mordanis, the cases he writes were mainly already raised by a previous person. (Other than Mordanis, which he retracted) Also, there are little follow up to the cases he post. It seems like he thinks it is not important, especially when he kept reminding us that he is a newbie previously. (Which he stepped away from now) No matter what side he plays I must acknowledge that at best it is anti-town. However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Shady I believe you meant to say if Mordanis flips green then Golbat looks really scummy since he is the first to bring out a case on him, and Golbat looks scummy to me, too. but no vice versa. I am really sensitive to posts like this. "So you think [b]player X[b] is scum. We will lynch you, and if you are innocent, then we will believe you and lynch him later". I know this is off by a bit, since you actually have more argument that that, but such logic is so easy overlooked and scums love to make use of silly logic like these, and make a second easy mislynch. @Golbat Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely agreed upon. I hope I just suck and Golbat actually flips red. I am off to bed, later. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
I will address Ange and Kei. Post this so you guys know its coming. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
EBWOP: @Golbat Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
It's 3am right now so I am skimming through goodkarma's filter and give an general impression: hope you don't mind. Please do ask if you need me to elaborate on any particular detail: While I disagree with his lurker lynching policy, he is consistent with it and follow through with pressuring lurkers. One thing that raises my eyebrow is that he decided to go after aRyuujin and aRyuujin only, when there are several other players that is also lurking hard(There might be explanation that I missed). Also, I dislike how he lightly dismisses Mordanis' case, totally ignored Shady's (well, I guess shady's far from being a lurker) and most importantly, ignored Golbat's case right until the end. If Golbat flips scum I might have something to say about it, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. @Kei He could be lying about trying to look for the games, but I would be lying if I say I checked using the filter he suggested. However, my point is that he seems to assert the notion that random lynch is actually better than scum-hunting lynch, which during my proof read I realized he might have meant something entirely different. I added that after I concluded that Golbat is less likely to be scum, and decided not to change my vote. | ||
alan133
Malaysia159 Posts
@Golbat, + Show Spoiler + my advise to you is to do everything to stay alive as blue. Defend defend and DEFEND yourself. It is okay to continue your scumhunt too with minimum-defence, but don't make flip flop around making weak cases. Also, be confident in your defence. You know you are a townie, so every "Scummy" thing people pointed out can be interpreted to be town motivated. Don't just go "I am a newb so that is a newb mistake". Just state why you do what you do instead, honestly, and it is 100 times better than "I am a newb". GG Golbat, I hope you learn something and get something out of this. I looked through the night post and I think people should be careful of what they say during the night. I am not discouraging discussion here but in my last game, the person who got killed is always the one with the wrong case, and scum used that to push mislynch after mislynch. A couple blue advise @Medic should be on the person they think is less scummy/more helpful to town. @Cops should be checking on lurkers. I am in favor of Shady's logic about "loud scum". @Roleblocker - As discussed, random blocking could end up blocking a fellow blue, so it is advisable to not use your ability unless you are sure of the scum. @Vig - If there is another one, reserve your bullet unless you are 100% sure someone is scum. Please correct me if the advise given was wrong. I just woke up and I need to get some food. I will go through the day post again when I am back with the information we got now - Golbat flip blue. I hope everyone else do the same. | ||
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