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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 21 2011 02:22 GMT
#2
count me in my dear sir.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 04:29 GMT
#59
/confirm
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 05:20 GMT
#64
On June 25 2011 13:35 GMarshal wrote:
Why does no one comment on my post?

I take it from the silence that we are all ok with lynching Chez then, right? No one seems to be complaining...

And my policies are now accepted by all, right?

I will defend chezinu's right to live until the end of days.
Conversley, I will support any lynch initiative on bloody_c0bbler.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 05:20 GMT
#65
I don't know why I put that underscore in there.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 14:29 GMT
#89
You know after all the work I put into those games Jackal, I only got a B+ in that class. Although that probably had more to do with me never studying for quiz and averaing 10/15 then the work I did for that paper.

I am heading to bed now, but when I get back I will try to get my thoughts on no flips games out there.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 23:21 GMT
#118
On June 26 2011 05:02 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 03:57 GMarshal wrote:

We lynch the DT first as a deterrent to scum plans that revolve around getting one last lynch. We don't know what wonky powers the mafia might have this game, so the last thing we want is a situation where we are at lylo without knowing it an the mafia have to force a mislynch. If we maintain the policy of lynching the DT first then we deter any such situation. This is especially important because we have no way to confirm that what a coroner is telling us is true. It would be a ballsy move, but mafia could potentially claim DT and have a second member "confirm" them with a coroner check. Its different if the coroner has the results appear in the day post, but even so it might be manipulable.

Basically with no way to verify anyone's role we need to lynch claimed DTs first to stop power plays from the mafia.

Maybe its me being paranoid, but it seems to me that Ace's games are always punctuated by scum trying to carry off incredible plays. I'm trying to safeguard against situations like that. If we lynch the DT first we guarantee that nothing odd is going on.



This doesn't really make sense to me. Scum already have a deterent to false claiming dt, in that they will be trading 1 for 1. There is only potential upside to lynching the dt second, as we may be able to verify via a coroner. Yes it's possible/likely that we won't be able to verify the dt, but it's worth trying. Obviously at LYLO things change though. I can't see any potential upside to killing the dt first.

Do not play in trying to guess Ace's roles included int he game. I used that as a basis for an analysis in Toy Factory which resulted in me trusting Annul which contributed to the rape that occurred that game.

I actually completely agree with how any sort of detective type role should be used this game. If you find a scum, push them using an analysis. Claiming DT will result in us killing you out of safety, a fake DT claim in a no flip scenario is simply way too deadly. In that sense any claim of DT will be met with swift and decisive death. We have no way of confirming anything said by a DT and it has the potential to royally fuck up the town. We need to stick to this no matter what.

On a related note. Any type of detective role should stick to investigating less active individuals. I seriously doubt this will be an issue in this game due to the player base, but it is something worth stating. I am so disappointed with how XLII was basically thrown away by 1/5th if not more of the town lurking and it putting us in an impossible situation. It's another reason I am happy this game is small with known active players.

Off the top of my head, if we somehow have few/no inactive players, I would recommend checking any player significantly influential in town decision, that means any vocal townie who is leading lynches. The important thing is that when you find a scum, do NOT role claim. Create analysis on that person, constantly push their guilt, but under no circumstances do you claim. From a mafia perspective killing you would then just draw people to your analysis, so its a double edged sword. You protect yourself and push a mafia by one simple act of pushing your suspects without claiming.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 23:28 GMT
#119
On June 26 2011 05:07 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 05:03 GGQ wrote:
It's been brushed over, but I just want to stress real quick that a 'no lynch' is not nearly as damaging to town when it's no flip and scum has only 1kp. Obviously we can't get in the habit of doing it, but we shouldn't be treating it as taboo.

Also, on a personal note, let's make sure we are all engaging with the game right away rather than waiting until we are at 9 players left and wondering if it's lylo.


No lynch is bad for town. Town gains NOTHING from no-lynching. Period.

We have a 0% chance of lynching mafia if we don't lynch.
We have a slightly higher % chance of lynching mafia if we do.

Lynching is a town weapon. Don't disable it or suggest disabling it. I fail to see how no lynch at any point in the game is helpful in this setup.

Arguably, if a no lynch can extend the game by a cycle, the chances of hitting a mafia with a lynch later in the game increases drastically from day 1. I see the pros and cons to both sides of the argument.

Pro no lynch
-Mafia have an easier time influencing lynches earlier on, and it becomes harder later on.
-If a no lynch mathematically extends the game another cycle, we will inherently have more information to work off of, as well as fewer players remaining in the game.

Con no lynch
-We waste a day and don't gain any information on who was trying to lynch who, because a no lynch is inherently neutral.
-While it may extend the game mathematically, in a closed set up we can't predict possible vigilante or surprise mafia KP. So we might just toss away a lynch for absolutely no reason.

To the argument that a no lynch has a 0% chance of hitting a mafia, well it also has a 0% chance of hitting a town. Ignoring mafia influence on lynches, we are statistically fucked in that situation either way. Count in mafia who can influence the lynch, and that percentage drops substantially.

As i said earlier, I don't feel like betting on what lies in the darkness. I know that I can't get that lynch back if we no lynch, and I don't know for certain that it will extend the day cycle. In that sense I would rather kill someone which should generate more discussion than a neutral no lynch, and be sure to have used kill power properly.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 25 2011 23:43 GMT
#121
Hey fishball, have you ever been lynched in a game yet?
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 26 2011 00:27 GMT
#124
haha, I feel proud of that. I remember I looked at everyone above me and was like "fishball, that bastard" you were the only one in that list who was stupid/crazy enough to do that. Shame it got me killed. I don't recall you getting lynched in DrH's game, but I got subbed out halfway into Day 1 for that shit with aidnai.

Well, I guess I don't have to push your lynch just to make that statement not true anymore
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 26 2011 00:52 GMT
#126
I couldn't find the first trailer, but this was hilarious chezinu
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 26 2011 02:34 GMT
#132
While I disagree with your reasoning, I agree with your conclusion. Lynching every day is most beneficial.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 26 2011 03:58 GMT
#134
On June 26 2011 11:27 GMarshal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 11:14 Scamp wrote:
Essentially Radfield's post was just a bunch of analysis on typical behavior and the like. His only advice for lynching is to lynch lurkers.inactives, and to have only a few suspects day one. And if the town can't agree on the few suspects then "a no-lynch is probably ok". I mean seriously, did this sound like a plan that'll get a lynch?

And later he follows it up explaining that a no-lynch is not terrible sometimes. I mean, I guess that's true, but the only time that really is true is when the town is playing like complete crap. Only then is it a better alternative.

Speaking of this, ILJ's explanation of the same thing is boggling my mind. We should start with lynching but later in the game when we have more information we start applying no-lynches? Why the hell is someone put up for lynch that we decide is probably townie? And furthermore, why is the no-lynch applied there instead of, y'know, someone scummy put up for a lynch?


100% Agree, we should not ever not lynch. Its giving the mafia free nights, by the time the end of day 1 rolls around we'll have 72 hours of information on people. Thats more than enough to make an informed decision on who we are going to lynch. Not lynching leaves us with no chance of killing mafia, that is unacceptable. I'll take a high chance of screwing up and missing over no chance of hitting scum any day.

I agree with you fully on this one Scamp.

The bold part. I explained above that I don't believe we are going to hit a mafia Day 1, and that information builds over time, and if we could guarantee that it would add another day to the game (essentially pushing back the lynch) then it would be beneficial to not lynch. However we can't guarantee that, so I'd prefer we use the lynch.

The second part I disagreed with is your rationale of not lynching leaving us with no chance of killing a mafia so we should lynch. I think there is a disproportionately high chance that we will hit a townie Day 1, and I don't believe we have sufficient information to avoid fucking up after 72 hours. This goes back to my first point, If I knew a no lynch would add another day at the end of the game, I'd be for it since a hypothetical day 6/7 lynch has way more information than a day 1 lynch.

But since we can't guarantee that extra day, I would rather risk the lynch. At the same time I know a day 1 lynch is prone to heavy mafia manipulation, I know that if I focus hard and pick out the right target with good analysis I will hopefully be able to out argue mafia manipulation.

That is my rationale and it leads to the same conclusion you have, but for entirely different reasoning.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 04:11 GMT
#158
WAITING YO ACE
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 04:17 GMT
#163
o_O where did the second kill come from? Town KP day 1 is weird.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 04:18 GMT
#165
If you aren't some sort of compulsive role claim the hit so that we know who the mafia killed and who just died.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 07:38 GMT
#166
Where is everyone? Also, from the way the post was written murder seems like it would be mafia driven, while annihilated must be some sort of special power? Plus I think Gmarshal makes much more sense as a Day 1 hit compared to GGQ.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 07:53 GMT
#168
Scamp, What are YOU doing?
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 08:42 GMT
#170
Chezinu are we going back to those code names you devised literally like 20 games ago?
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 10:54 GMT
#178
I think as long as we don't see a claim we can probably assume it's a third party. Any town player would have no reason not to claim a kill, which leaves one of two options. Mafia having a power role with an extra KP or a serial killer/third party role.
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RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
June 27 2011 11:48 GMT
#180
Well yes, I know he said that. But sometimes mafia have other ways of killing, like a poisoner or something. I remember in merc mafia I was mafia with 1 KP and I had two explosive vests I could give out and detonate. I believe in DrH's ExMiMa mafia had some other sort of KP role, I think it involved giving out fake medicine pills that killed people.

The catch with those is that they temporarily raise mafia KP while not being a permanent asset to the mafia.
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