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Hello TL,
After seeing today's GSL results and the overall trend, I really feel like players have troubles being really consistent in SC2, and that hurts the game to my eyes.
SC2 has no randomness whatsoever, but it still FEELS random sometimes. The lack of information makes it based partly on bluff and luck, and sometimes don't you feel like a player just won out of luck ? Should that happen regularly in a potential spectator sport ?
To really create a regular fan/viewer base, you need stars, you need guys above the whole cast, guys who have a 90% win ratio and meet in finals, and whose losses are really huge upsets has it happens so rarely.
Seriously, seeing MVP and Boxer in Code A, Nestea, MKP, and FD in up and down matches, and Squirtle in Code B, I can't help but feeling players have trouble being at the place they ought to be. This really makes me lose interest in the Starcraft 2 scene, each match almost seems like a coinflip to me now.
This is something I almost never experienced when I was interested in other competitive circuit, be it soccer (in France), basketball (in the US), or even the VS fighting scene (worldwide).
Upset DO happen, which makes it interesting from an entertainment PoV, but as they are rare, they really have a great effect on the excitement and hype you can feel when watching a league/tourney.
To end this OP on a more positive note, I really like the shape of the upcoming GSL finals. MC and July both are awesome, know how to be solid, and offer good games. But never forget MC VS Rain.
What are you thoughts about this ? Do you feel like this too, do you think I'm really over analyzing things, or do you think I'm wrong when I feel like the game is "volatile" ?
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MVP is weak vs P, FD has always been insanely risky, BoxeR sadly isn't that good at star2, and so on. I think that at such an early stage in the game we're still figuring out who the real bonjwas will be and what the best builds will be. Once the game is more figured out we'll see things stablize imo, but i'm not convinced that its "too volatile" as of yet.
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I wasn't suprised by today's results at all. MVP needs to work on tvp on these new maps. I think the new maps are reall going to drastically change which players are dominating. I can see zenio doing really really well next season.
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I guess you could argue it is a little right now, but I think that is because people are nowhere near mastering the game yet IMO.
Give it at least another year before statements like this.
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the reason you think this is because there is only single elimination tournaments.
if you lose 1 bo3 your out for the complet month, you basically vanish from the scene (in korea at least, and i think you are referring to the korean scene).
imagine if you would have a team-league, that goes a whole season, like the bw proleague.
many more player would be able to show their potential, and i would imagine, the current top-players like mvp, mc, nestea etc. would stand WAY more out than other good players that get to ro 16/ ro8 in the GSL.
thats why i want a pro-league like teamleague for sc2, adds so much more rivalries.
BW Spoiler of KT vs SKT
+ Show Spoiler +KT VS SKT today is just an example, there were 12 pages of hype for a team clash, and there are at maximum only 7 games going to be played. Imagine what, stats, an average a-class gamer all-killed. osl champion fantasy and pro-league bonjwa bisu included
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Seeing Boxer in Code A doesn't surprise me at all and if you read the interviews with people in TSL they are all saying they don't expect Boxer to hit RO16. A lot of his hype comes from his BW days and he just doesn't have the mechanics down to compete with the SC2 pros.
As for MVP, he did some really bad desicions like engaging toss at aweful positions and losing everything. Not sure what's going on and I can only guess that he didn't practice or practiced the wrong thing
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Well Boxer being in Code A isn't that suprising, he hasn't been above the best in skill level since beta, even though he is still quite good, a lot of good players are in Code A too, although MVP in Code A is definitely an upset.
As for the others in group stage, at least they aren't in Code A yet, keeping a Code S spot means you have to be on top of your game all the time, the best player in the world may not win every GSL, but the best should still remain in Code S, as long as they stay there, I don't think there is any upset, at least not one you should stop following the sc2 scene over.
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yeah i don't know, either the game is in an amazing/perfect state where the skill cap is so high and the competition is so close that they're all rising at similar enough rates that nobody can dominate, or something else is a factor (luck, imbalance).
a little bit of both? hopefully moreso of the former.
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New maps is like changing balance. It takes a while for players to adjust and "figure" the game out.
The timings will be a bit off because of the new size of maps so the players need to adjust accordingly.
I don't expect SC2 to be stable until there is some kind of "final" map pool and all three expansions are out.
I think it's actually fun to see this "randomness". You see the game grow and change over the course of time which is really fun. I didn't get to experience it with BW unfortunately.
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Boxer has not done anything amazing in SC2. He had a good run in S2, where every match (Except one) that he played was TvT - his strongest matchup, and one that suits his playstyle best.
FruitDealer has not been performing since Season 1 at all. He also made it out of Code A, as did MKP, and Nestea.
The MVP matches were depressing to watch, though.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
The gap between the best players and the mediocre players is small, hence why it is volatile in my opinion. It does hurt he player fanbases right now, but there is hardly anything you can do about that outside of the game itself.
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I think its a large mixture of the way sc2 is still fairly young, new maps and the way the gsl tournament is laid out where you dont get too play a huge amount.
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On March 16 2011 20:12 schmutttt wrote:
I guess you could argue it is a little right now, but I think that is because people are nowhere near mastering the game yet IMO.
Give it at least another year before statements like this.
It has already been a year since beta. The meta game will evolve, but I don't see anything really evolving besides maps atm.
As for «MVP played poorly» : I agree. But does that mean you were thinking BEFORE the match he would play poorly ? He needs to work on his vP, but he is overall normally a very good gamer. I think nobody expected him to go 1-4 like that.
I'm really wondering how it will pan out in the long run. But atm, in season FIVE, I'm just not interested in watching the full league anymore...
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i thinnk 2 things might have changed:
1. the removal of small maps where terrans absolutely dominated
2. terrans are so used to going MMM and that has won them so many games, that they can't addapt
I'm not saying that there is imbalance or anything, but terrans need to do something different.
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On March 16 2011 20:15 Elefanto wrote:BW Spoiler of KT vs SKT + Show Spoiler +KT VS SKT today is just an example, there were 12 pages of hype for a team clash, and there are at maximum only 7 games going to be played. Imagine what, stats, an average a-class gamer all-killed. osl champion fantasy and pro-league bonjwa bisu
+ Show Spoiler +
1) Stats is not "an average a-class gamer".
2) Bisu's PvP has been shaky lately, so is Fantasy's if you don't count series in individual leagues where he has always special strategies prepared.
3) It was BO1
Whereas there's no discussion that variance in SC2 is much bigger than in BW because the game is simply easier, I don't think it's as tragic as some people make it seems after the MVP loss. Someone posted his sc2ranks graph in the "LR" thread and he seems to be going FruitDealer's way..
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As for me the game itself has nothing to do with that. Imagine BW had only MSL/OSL without PL, last individual leagues had quite similar problem as GSL now, some of players who were considered the best dropped quite fast, yet we were able to watch them still in PL. In SC2 we are missing real seasons, GSTL is again only a tournament, where instead of players dropping out we have teams. It's still quite similar concept to GSL. As long as there is only an individual league it will be like that, I think.
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Players are volatile. THAT'S easier to argue than what you're saying. And truer too.
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IMO the game is very young. We have no idea who the best are. Give it a few years and youll see the best rise and the second best fall. Right now everyone is still figuring everything out. Even the pro's.
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SC2 does have alot of random factors in it. Thats why pretty much everyone has a w/l ratio close to 50%. Its really hard to be consistent and to distinguish yourself from the rest of the pros.
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I have heard this argument about stability many times. Honestly it just comes across as a snipe at SC2 as an e-sport. The problem though, is that the argument is complete bullshit and relies on 'facts' such as Mvp or Fruitdealer or whoever being the best players (and then playing their best at every round) rather than just being good at certain stages of the meta-game. We can't actually determine whether that is factually correct until someone actually dominates for a long enough period of time to be called a bonjwa (one season is not enough, lol!). If mvp or FD were actually bonjwa/invincible status then they would've shown consistent results (mvp pre-GSL4 was all hype but no real results), rather than the other way around...
Don't look go into a GSL assuming that your guy is just going to crush face and if he doesn't it's cause the game is broken or 'not stable'. Sometimes there is far more logical explanations, 1) he isn't as good as you think at a particular matchup or overall, 2) he played poorly on the day, 3) he got unlucky.
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EPT
