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On April 02 2011 18:47 mr_tolkien wrote:
I allow myself to bump this topic, regarding recents results, more precisely :
TSL 3 results - No question, foreigners did better BOs. But we can't dismiss it was nearly pure BO wins, meaning, great deal of luck related with scouting
GSL WC results - Whita Ra VS San, Dimaga VS San
MLG - Kiwi VS IdrA
The more I'm watching SC2 recently, the more I see this game as «not serious», meaning you can't really say the usual good sportmanship phrase «Let the best win».
As well, Sen vs MKP is interesting dwelving into. Sen beat him one day and lost twice to him 2 days after. None of those games were real cheeses, neither 100% BO wins, it was just really small things that really made the difference. Things you seem to be allowed given the general leniancy of the game.
But definitly, it's hurting my SC2 watching experience. I would never miss a GSL match before, and the longer it goes, the less interesting the game seems.
I would really apppreciate more feedback from the community after those two weeks which have been really packed with offsets !!!
The TSL 3 results were heavily affected by lag.
The Koreans admitted that they, except July, weren't even trying in the show match, preferring to hide strategies for the real tournament with prize money.
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As for IdrA vs kiwi, IdrA is clearly in bad shape those day's it's not the game.
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I think it's more a case of many players being very good, and just a handful being able to seperate themselves from the pack.
Counters to specific builds are still being worked out and the game isn't completely figured out yet (obviously).
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Actually I think, as stupid it may sound the stupider the ai is the better it is for esports. It creates much higher skillcap like in bw. Battles are usually very simple even I could do most of them exactly the same. Ofc I can't do forcefields and marine split at all but other battles are very simple in sc2. The top players should be so good in my mind that no ordinary player should ever be able to come even near their skill level. If I trained 5-6 hours a day I'd be pretty close to the best players. But don't get stuck on this it's not my main point. (in before "why don't you then go to gsl?") I'm just saying that I'll never be close to Jaedong or Flash skill level in bw no matter how I train. I think sc2 has too hard counters and so you are required to scout well to have the exact unit composition you need.
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On April 02 2011 19:34 chenchen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2011 18:47 mr_tolkien wrote:
I allow myself to bump this topic, regarding recents results, more precisely :
TSL 3 results - No question, foreigners did better BOs. But we can't dismiss it was nearly pure BO wins, meaning, great deal of luck related with scouting
GSL WC results - Whita Ra VS San, Dimaga VS San
MLG - Kiwi VS IdrA
The more I'm watching SC2 recently, the more I see this game as «not serious», meaning you can't really say the usual good sportmanship phrase «Let the best win».
As well, Sen vs MKP is interesting dwelving into. Sen beat him one day and lost twice to him 2 days after. None of those games were real cheeses, neither 100% BO wins, it was just really small things that really made the difference. Things you seem to be allowed given the general leniancy of the game.
But definitly, it's hurting my SC2 watching experience. I would never miss a GSL match before, and the longer it goes, the less interesting the game seems.
I would really apppreciate more feedback from the community after those two weeks which have been really packed with offsets !!! The TSL 3 results were heavily affected by lag. The Koreans admitted that they, except July, weren't even trying in the show match, preferring to hide strategies for the real tournament with prize money.
First of all if you would have read Jinros thread he explains that it wasnt lagy as in choppy and jumpy, but rather latency, which you can prepare to, also it shouldnt be considered a major factor as Europeans too had latency albeit a slightly less so.
They probably were better prepared as they are more likely to play on NA server due to other tournaments, but again - that comes down to preparation not ''lag''
I havent read interviews after showmatch but I do doubt that everyone except July were hiding builds and only July managed to show good play.
Even if every single one of them choose not to bust out the best tailored builds they had prepared, each of them have at least few if not dozen different solid builds to choose from.
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On April 02 2011 19:34 chenchen wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2011 18:47 mr_tolkien wrote:
I allow myself to bump this topic, regarding recents results, more precisely :
TSL 3 results - No question, foreigners did better BOs. But we can't dismiss it was nearly pure BO wins, meaning, great deal of luck related with scouting
GSL WC results - Whita Ra VS San, Dimaga VS San
MLG - Kiwi VS IdrA
The more I'm watching SC2 recently, the more I see this game as «not serious», meaning you can't really say the usual good sportmanship phrase «Let the best win».
As well, Sen vs MKP is interesting dwelving into. Sen beat him one day and lost twice to him 2 days after. None of those games were real cheeses, neither 100% BO wins, it was just really small things that really made the difference. Things you seem to be allowed given the general leniancy of the game.
But definitly, it's hurting my SC2 watching experience. I would never miss a GSL match before, and the longer it goes, the less interesting the game seems.
I would really apppreciate more feedback from the community after those two weeks which have been really packed with offsets !!! The TSL 3 results were heavily affected by lag. The Koreans admitted that they, except July, weren't even trying in the show match, preferring to hide strategies for the real tournament with prize money.
I dont think its shocking at all that sen beats marineking in a showmatch one day, then loses in another, even the best players cant hope for much more than 60-70 percent win ratio vs other very good players. As for the TSL, its not that surprising to have many upsets when players have two weeks to tailor builds exactly to beat the opponent they are facing.
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On April 02 2011 20:15 epoc wrote:
Actually I think, as stupid it may sound the stupider the ai is the better it is for esports. It creates much higher skillcap like in bw. Battles are usually very simple even I could do most of them exactly the same. Ofc I can't do forcefields and marine split at all but other battles are very simple in sc2. The top players should be so good in my mind that no ordinary player should ever be able to come even near their skill level. If I trained 5-6 hours a day I'd be pretty close to the best players. But don't get stuck on this it's not my main point. (in before "why don't you then go to gsl?") I'm just saying that I'll never be close to Jaedong or Flash skill level in bw no matter how I train. I think sc2 has too hard counters and so you are required to scout well to have the exact unit composition you need.
this is a feeling i get often too. with overall way lower cap and need of mechanics so much of the ingame stuff just isnt as exciting for me.
in broodwar i know how sick hard like evrything they do is so its great to see how well they control.in sc2 i most of the time think " mmhh hes doing 1a... spamming some spell X.... mmhh battle over. that looked like evry other battle at platinum+ level".
and this also relates to the "randomness" of sc2.if mechanics dont matter that much (and in some situations can be almost completly ignored) then practice and "skill" matter less and more just comes down to "my build beats your build. ".
if you now consider how many allins and blindcounters exist in sc2, that the game infact will not be balanced for atleast most of the time in the next few years ( even IF suddenly it was balanced expansions will happen) then there just will not be much consistency.
inshort:mechanics and evolved balanced gameplay bring consistency. mechanics are not very important in sc2 and we wont have evolved balanced gameplay for years to come.
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On April 02 2011 22:29 BeMannerDuPenner wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2011 20:15 epoc wrote:
Actually I think, as stupid it may sound the stupider the ai is the better it is for esports. It creates much higher skillcap like in bw. Battles are usually very simple even I could do most of them exactly the same. Ofc I can't do forcefields and marine split at all but other battles are very simple in sc2. The top players should be so good in my mind that no ordinary player should ever be able to come even near their skill level. If I trained 5-6 hours a day I'd be pretty close to the best players. But don't get stuck on this it's not my main point. (in before "why don't you then go to gsl?") I'm just saying that I'll never be close to Jaedong or Flash skill level in bw no matter how I train. I think sc2 has too hard counters and so you are required to scout well to have the exact unit composition you need. this is a feeling i get often too. with overall way lower cap and need of mechanics so much of the ingame stuff just isnt as exciting for me. in broodwar i know how sick hard like evrything they do is so its great to see how well they control.in sc2 i most of the time think " mmhh hes doing 1a... spamming some spell X.... mmhh battle over. that looked like evry other battle at platinum+ level". and this also relates to the "randomness" of sc2.if mechanics dont matter that much (and in some situations can be almost completly ignored) then practice and "skill" matter less and more just comes down to "my build beats your build. ". if you now consider how many allins and blindcounters exist in sc2, that the game infact will not be balanced for atleast most of the time in the next few years ( even IF suddenly it was balanced expansions will happen) then there just will not be much consistency. inshort:mechanics and evolved balanced gameplay bring consistency. mechanics are not very important in sc2 and we wont have evolved balanced gameplay for years to come.
^^ I get that feeling too, mostly when I see protoss play. A lot of toss players against t and z just camp up until 200/200, get a huge colli death ball and then at most, throw up a couple of guardian shields and forcefields. Commentators go CRAZY at this point and I'm just thinking, well, no, all he did was use 1 hotkey, his zealots were behind his stalkers the entire time and he then pressed 1g,g, held f and then clicked a few times, but still demolished the other player.
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I think you are right, the game is volatile right now, but I don't think is a bad thing at all. SC2 is very young game and is evolving very fast. We just got new and bigger maps and a new patch for this season, so strategies and meta game is still evolving in a regular basis.
I am sure you didn't have consistent stars to follow when SC1 was 1 year old.
More maps, balance patches and new players are gonna keep coming so I expect this trend of evolution in strategies and meta game keep going for quite a bit.
As another poster said I would give SC2 another year before we see the true dominant stars to arise. Keep in mind we are still missing 2 expansions.
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On April 02 2011 20:25 Jakalo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2011 19:34 chenchen wrote:On April 02 2011 18:47 mr_tolkien wrote:
I allow myself to bump this topic, regarding recents results, more precisely :
TSL 3 results - No question, foreigners did better BOs. But we can't dismiss it was nearly pure BO wins, meaning, great deal of luck related with scouting
GSL WC results - Whita Ra VS San, Dimaga VS San
MLG - Kiwi VS IdrA
The more I'm watching SC2 recently, the more I see this game as «not serious», meaning you can't really say the usual good sportmanship phrase «Let the best win».
As well, Sen vs MKP is interesting dwelving into. Sen beat him one day and lost twice to him 2 days after. None of those games were real cheeses, neither 100% BO wins, it was just really small things that really made the difference. Things you seem to be allowed given the general leniancy of the game.
But definitly, it's hurting my SC2 watching experience. I would never miss a GSL match before, and the longer it goes, the less interesting the game seems.
I would really apppreciate more feedback from the community after those two weeks which have been really packed with offsets !!! The TSL 3 results were heavily affected by lag. The Koreans admitted that they, except July, weren't even trying in the show match, preferring to hide strategies for the real tournament with prize money. First of all if you would have read Jinros thread he explains that it wasnt lagy as in choppy and jumpy, but rather latency, which you can prepare to, also it shouldnt be considered a major factor as Europeans too had latency albeit a slightly less so. They probably were better prepared as they are more likely to play on NA server due to other tournaments, but again - that comes down to preparation not ''lag'' I havent read interviews after showmatch but I do doubt that everyone except July were hiding builds and only July managed to show good play. Even if every single one of them choose not to bust out the best tailored builds they had prepared, each of them have at least few if not dozen different solid builds to choose from.
Personally ive never understood why people treat it like the Europeans and Americans didnt lag too
lag doesnt exist in just one place in the world people
I very much respect Jinros explanation though
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someone recently posted MC's win stats vs. races in other threads, and he's well over 60% in all matchups (not ladder--actual pro matches), and if you only look at more recent results he's up around 70%.
The very best baseball teams *maybe* get up to 60% win percentages. These days in the NFL, maybe one or two teams will get over a 70% win percentage--between 60% and 70% (10-11 wins or so) is pretty common for a good team that makes the playoffs. The NBA occasionally sees more dominant teams, but if you look at this season, there are only a couple teams barely cracking 70%, and most of the great teams like Boston and Miami are in the high 60's.
In other words, MC during this run as the best player in the game, is winning about as much as the best teams in baseball, basketball and football do. Unless you would argue all those sports are "too volatile" as well, this clearly indicates that SC2 isn't as volatile as people might think.
So why doesn't it feel that way?
Well, because baseball, football and basketball play long, round robin-type regular seasons. If the Yankees drop a game to the Royals, nobody really notices, because they'll just play them again the next day and in all likelihood win. Its not like the Yankees have to keep winning, 100% of the time, and the first loss they get they're eliminated from the season. The postseason does work like that (well, kinda. its one and done in football, Bo5 turning into Bo7's in baseball, and Bo7's in basketball)...but the MLB and NFL postseasons are notoriously unpredictable, with top seeds going down all the time and wild cards frequently making long runs.
But SC2 uses a "playoff" format *all the time*. There is no SC2 "regular season", where players simply accumulate wins and play each other repeatedly in a non-elimination format.
Basically every single SC2 tournament uses some variation of one and done (or two and done, in the case of formats that send losers to a loser's bracket).
This means that even guys like MC, who do win far more often than they lose, will end up playing a *lot* of tournaments where they get an untimely, early loss an go home early.
If baseball ran a monthly "GBL" where all the teams played a one and done tournament, it would seem incredibly volatile as well.
In other words, its not the game itself, its the tournament structure.
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To use another comparison, look at the NCAA men's college basketball tournament (aka March Madness).
Once a year, all the top teams are seeded against each other in a one and done month-long tournament.
Typically, there will be several teams in the tournament that, during the regular season, looked incredibly dominant and had really high winning percentages.
And yet, these teams lose in the tournament all the time. This is why, in America, filling out one's "bracket predictions" (for non-Americans, these are basically liquibets for the NCAA tournament) is a big fad--the tournament is so unpredictable, anyone's bracket predictions could turn out to be right. Just picking all the top seeds never works.
Even the very best teams, the ones that recruit all the top players and have great coaches and programs...only win very rarely. Duke, for example, might be the most dominant team in modern history, yet they've only won 4 times in 30 years.
Does that mean basketball is "too volatile." No, of course not. During the regular season and long series, better teams will consistently perform better, and over time will accumulate high winning percentages.
But one and done is volatile.
Right now, the GSL is basically like a march madness that runs every month.
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I think this should be brought up again. This post has a lot of spoilers in it, so watch out.
+ Show Spoiler +First of all, the FXOpen invitational today. Kyhol beat both oGsHero and oGsWanT. Do you think Kyhol is a better player than both of those two? There's more than that but I want to cover other tourney's too. TSL3: ThorZaIN beat MC pretty convincingly. The score was 3-2 but the games ThorZaIN won were a one-sided stomping. Copenhagen games: Grubby got 3rd. Grubby is a good player, but he seriously beat TLO and MorroW, both considered to be top EU players. Grubby has only been playing for a few months, and he's already beating players of that caliber. IMMvp + BoxeR got sent down to Code A, while HuK, Lyn, and TSL_Killer got sent to code S Jinro, San, MC, MarineKing all fall down to the up/down matches in GSL. Leenock gets completely knocked out. . Starswar: Dimaga beats the code S player FOXLyn 2-0. IMNesTea, a GSL Champion, gets beaten 2-1 by an unknown chinese player, LoveCD. Liquid`TLO beats a Code S player, HongUnPrime.
As you can see, there's been a TON of upsets recently. You can say that they weren't really upsets, but there are still a lot of weird results. There still hasn't been a player that has been super consistent. Closest to that is MC, and even he has been losing a lot of games. This game does indeed feel too volatile, especially at the highest level.
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a lot of matchups seem to revolve around 1 huge decision or 1 huge battle, TvP especially because bad positioning will net you a 50 supply deficit and end the game
might also be because damage is a lot higher in sc2 than sc1
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The best players don' t have to win 100% of the time to still be the best.
Flash and Jaedong have similar win rates to MC, they also get eliminated from MSL/OSL early sometimes, it happens to everyone.
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I know a thousand people have already beat me to this but I think the game is still quite young. It's due for some big (although really I can only speculate how big) changes in the two planned expansions so it may still take some time to become less volatile. I think right all we can ask for is that the game is stable enough such that the better player wins.
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On April 24 2011 14:48 MechKing wrote:I think this should be brought up again. This post has a lot of spoilers in it, so watch out. + Show Spoiler +First of all, the FXOpen invitational today. Kyhol beat both oGsHero and oGsWanT. Do you think Kyhol is a better player than both of those two? There's more than that but I want to cover other tourney's too. TSL3: ThorZaIN beat MC pretty convincingly. The score was 3-2 but the games ThorZaIN won were a one-sided stomping. Copenhagen games: Grubby got 3rd. Grubby is a good player, but he seriously beat TLO and MorroW, both considered to be top EU players. Grubby has only been playing for a few months, and he's already beating players of that caliber. IMMvp + BoxeR got sent down to Code A, while HuK, Lyn, and TSL_Killer got sent to code S Jinro, San, MC, MarineKing all fall down to the up/down matches in GSL. Leenock gets completely knocked out. . Starswar: Dimaga beats the code S player FOXLyn 2-0. IMNesTea, a GSL Champion, gets beaten 2-1 by an unknown chinese player, LoveCD. Liquid`TLO beats a Code S player, HongUnPrime. As you can see, there's been a TON of upsets recently. You can say that they weren't really upsets, but there are still a lot of weird results. There still hasn't been a player that has been super consistent. Closest to that is MC, and even he has been losing a lot of games. This game does indeed feel too volatile, especially at the highest level.
IMO, the results may feel volatile, but not all the games themselves can be attributed to volatility.
Players are losing because they play poorly. Players are pulling off upsets and wins because they are outplaying their opponents. Although the results may show volatility, watching the games themselves reveals that favored players are making foolish mistakes and playing poorly despite their supposed superiority.
Favored players may not prepare properly against opponents who prepared their hearts out. Favored players get too overconfident and greedy while their opponents exploit this. Favored players go for too gimmicky or too stylistic strategies while their opponents completely figure this out and go for the proper counter strategy.
Each upset can easily be explained by an analysis of the games themselves instead of flat out attributing them to volatility. SC2 may be more volatile than BW, but that volatility is completely irrelevant at this point when top players are making major mistakes and not always playing in top form.
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On April 24 2011 14:48 MechKing wrote:I think this should be brought up again. This post has a lot of spoilers in it, so watch out. + Show Spoiler +First of all, the FXOpen invitational today. Kyhol beat both oGsHero and oGsWanT. Do you think Kyhol is a better player than both of those two? There's more than that but I want to cover other tourney's too. TSL3: ThorZaIN beat MC pretty convincingly. The score was 3-2 but the games ThorZaIN won were a one-sided stomping. Copenhagen games: Grubby got 3rd. Grubby is a good player, but he seriously beat TLO and MorroW, both considered to be top EU players. Grubby has only been playing for a few months, and he's already beating players of that caliber. IMMvp + BoxeR got sent down to Code A, while HuK, Lyn, and TSL_Killer got sent to code S Jinro, San, MC, MarineKing all fall down to the up/down matches in GSL. Leenock gets completely knocked out. . Starswar: Dimaga beats the code S player FOXLyn 2-0. IMNesTea, a GSL Champion, gets beaten 2-1 by an unknown chinese player, LoveCD. Liquid`TLO beats a Code S player, HongUnPrime. As you can see, there's been a TON of upsets recently. You can say that they weren't really upsets, but there are still a lot of weird results. There still hasn't been a player that has been super consistent. Closest to that is MC, and even he has been losing a lot of games. This game does indeed feel too volatile, especially at the highest level.
That's because the game isn't figured out yet. It really has little to do with randomness or mechanics not mattering.
I can and do upset players who are probably overall better than me in PvT, because I have some not very standard builds and people don't respond optimally (and not cheese, mind you). It's not that they can't scout what I am doing and adjust, it's just that they adjust poorly because it's unfamiliar territory for them, whereas I've played 200 games out of that opening.
Similarly, thorzain continues busting out non-standard strategies TvP and crushing. He didn't win with mech in game 5 because of a fluke, he won because MC had absolutely no clue how to respond properly. (note: I don't mean to downplay any mechanical prowess thorzain has, just that MC would have at least stood a chance if he had played against thorzain's build 50 times)
If you want a good analogy, look at chess during the second half of the ninteenth century. Even between top players, games ended in 15 moves or under just due to opening novelties that were mostly unknown. If Morphy spends hours and hours developing some new opening trap, what are the odds that some other top player is going to respond correctly over the board? Practically none, they're just going to get crushed. OTOH, any of his opponents could do the same to him.
But good luck pulling that off against super GMs of today who know all the classical lines, and have a huge breadth of knowledge about all sorts of playstyles, openings, position, theory, etc. At best your opening variation will get you half a pawn and let you draw easily with black.
And so it will probably be with SC2. In a few years people will understand how to deal with a wider variety of strategies, and they won't lose to players who are mechanically inferior very often.
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On April 02 2011 22:29 BeMannerDuPenner wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 02 2011 20:15 epoc wrote:
Actually I think, as stupid it may sound the stupider the ai is the better it is for esports. It creates much higher skillcap like in bw. Battles are usually very simple even I could do most of them exactly the same. Ofc I can't do forcefields and marine split at all but other battles are very simple in sc2. The top players should be so good in my mind that no ordinary player should ever be able to come even near their skill level. If I trained 5-6 hours a day I'd be pretty close to the best players. But don't get stuck on this it's not my main point. (in before "why don't you then go to gsl?") I'm just saying that I'll never be close to Jaedong or Flash skill level in bw no matter how I train. I think sc2 has too hard counters and so you are required to scout well to have the exact unit composition you need. this is a feeling i get often too. with overall way lower cap and need of mechanics so much of the ingame stuff just isnt as exciting for me. in broodwar i know how sick hard like evrything they do is so its great to see how well they control.in sc2 i most of the time think " mmhh hes doing 1a... spamming some spell X.... mmhh battle over. that looked like evry other battle at platinum+ level". and this also relates to the "randomness" of sc2.if mechanics dont matter that much (and in some situations can be almost completly ignored) then practice and "skill" matter less and more just comes down to "my build beats your build. ". if you now consider how many allins and blindcounters exist in sc2, that the game infact will not be balanced for atleast most of the time in the next few years ( even IF suddenly it was balanced expansions will happen) then there just will not be much consistency. inshort:mechanics and evolved balanced gameplay bring consistency. mechanics are not very important in sc2 and we wont have evolved balanced gameplay for years to come.
The general theme seems to be that the "skill cap" is low. Believe it or not, people thought sc1 skill cap was low until Slayers_Boxer came along. The early days of SC1 (early 2000) Protoss dominated due to "low skill cap". The ability to mass zealot and dragoon was all there was in the game. The first major tournament win of Slayers_Boxer, if I recall correctly, had 14 Protoss, 1 Terran (Boxer himself) and 1 Zerg (Yellow). I think the true skill cap of SC2 is yet to be realized.
One can argue that the early days of SC1 had many units and spells that were not being utilized. Thus it had more room to grow. People often comment that "the future is all about spell X" or the "later on Y composition will dominate." The game can grow towards a totally different direction.
We are in no position to call out skill caps, good for eSport and what not. People claim they find the games boring, yet the people watched the games, are fan of players and took the effort to be a part of this community by posting on threads.
The game is young. There are still million mechanics, strategies and map designs to be figured out.
P.S. You really think mechanics do not matter in SC2? Have you really played/watched enough to make that comment? Is it really the only difference between MC and any other pros in the world? MC just has a better build? Take any pro match. Watch it 20 times. You will find so many little details these players do beyond their "builds" that it will bring tears to your eyes.
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the pros havent mastered the game yet so we're bound to see these mistakes that players make. Perhaps two years from now we'll start seeing some really good play where no pro will be making mistakes.
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EPT
