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On March 16 2011 20:54 andrewwiggin wrote:
Players are volatile. THAT'S easier to argue than what you're saying. And truer too.
I think a lot of people who spend a lot of time watching these games tend to think of the players as robots who are wired to react optimally to every unforseen tech, every avenue of harassment, etc. The truth is that each player's performance varies - and just like a batter trying to get a hit off of a pitcher in baseball, sometimes they get a hit, sometimes they don't. The biggest difference is that if they have bad judgement, or if their execution is just a little off it's harder to tell in SC2 because so much is happening, and because the game is far more abstract. You can't really blame SC2 for that.
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I think most of the inconsistency results from those numerous changes in maps and balance.
Those fast changes arent bad for the game, I feel like most changes are needed. It takes some time.
Give it time.
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It's the GSL bracket setup that is volatile, not SC2. Probably to make it seem more exciting. Also there is some randomness in SC2, the most obvious being spawn positions, and it does have a big effect on who will win.
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On March 16 2011 22:38 mr_tolkien wrote:
A lot of people are not understanding the point of this thread.
It's not specifically related to MVP, it's a feeling I got since season 2 and FDs fall. Then Nestea vs Rain. Then MC vs Jinro (a HUGE upset).
Saying it's linked to the youth of the game is also false. One year after the professionalisation of BW, they WERE players standing out clearly. It's not the case here, there are "top players" all clumped up together.
There is no bonjwa and none have the remote shape of one.
MVP never looked like one to me. Neither did Mc or FD. The only one I really saw really standing out at a point was Nestea, but nothing happened.
This guys are PAID for doing this. There HAS to be a player more gifted than the others. But clearly SC2 isn't made to allow him to stand out from the crowd.
So.. if MC wins a second GSL in 3 seasons, will he stand out from the crowd? How much does a player have to do to stand out?
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the games still new, once the expansions are out and the games balanced.
then we'll see people like we did in broodwar
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Yes, I beleive that Starcraft 2 is so fragile. Take a look at the Huk game where I think he played against ChoyaFou... Choya outclassed huk in everyway in a match and huk DTS simply got Huk to cripple choyas base and army....
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On March 16 2011 20:15 Elefanto wrote:the reason you think this is because there is only single elimination tournaments. if you lose 1 bo3 your out for the complet month, you basically vanish from the scene (in korea at least, and i think you are referring to the korean scene). imagine if you would have a team-league, that goes a whole season, like the bw proleague. many more player would be able to show their potential, and i would imagine, the current top-players like mvp, mc, nestea etc. would stand WAY more out than other good players that get to ro 16/ ro8 in the GSL. thats why i want a pro-league like teamleague for sc2, adds so much more rivalries. BW Spoiler of KT vs SKT + Show Spoiler +KT VS SKT today is just an example, there were 12 pages of hype for a team clash, and there are at maximum only 7 games going to be played. Imagine what, stats, an average a-class gamer all-killed. osl champion fantasy and pro-league bonjwa bisu included
Stats is definitely not an "average a-class gamer", he's by far the best protoss right now who isn't called Bisu or Stork. Bisu's vP has been pretty bad lately, nothing close to bonjwa, and Fantasy is pretty infamous for his inconsistent play.
@OP
I think the game is too volatile. I remember ret talking about this in one of his interviews and idra touched on it too. A big reason is that the game is faster paced, and the macro mechanics add to that and let u get a large number of units quicker than you normally would. This makes all-ins stronger and makes the game quicker, making it easier for players to lose due to very small mistakes or unlucky scouting.
Another reason is of course the easier mechanics of the game, which I feel makes there be less of a difference between top players since almost any1 in the top 50 can macro nearly perfectly (esp. with toss  ). We see upsets in BW too but definitely not as much
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This has been written about extensively on TL.net that there are less factors in SC2 than BW that cause skill differential between opponents. Combine less of a skill gap with completely different maps than previously and you will get severe volatility.
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On March 16 2011 22:59 loveeholicce wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2011 20:15 Elefanto wrote:the reason you think this is because there is only single elimination tournaments. if you lose 1 bo3 your out for the complet month, you basically vanish from the scene (in korea at least, and i think you are referring to the korean scene). imagine if you would have a team-league, that goes a whole season, like the bw proleague. many more player would be able to show their potential, and i would imagine, the current top-players like mvp, mc, nestea etc. would stand WAY more out than other good players that get to ro 16/ ro8 in the GSL. thats why i want a pro-league like teamleague for sc2, adds so much more rivalries. BW Spoiler of KT vs SKT + Show Spoiler +KT VS SKT today is just an example, there were 12 pages of hype for a team clash, and there are at maximum only 7 games going to be played. Imagine what, stats, an average a-class gamer all-killed. osl champion fantasy and pro-league bonjwa bisu included Stats is definitely not an "average a-class gamer", he's by far the best protoss right now who isn't called Bisu or Stork. Bisu's vP has been pretty bad lately, nothing close to bonjwa, and Fantasy is pretty infamous for his inconsistent play. @OP I think the game is too volatile. I remember ret talking about this in one of his interviews and idra touched on it too. A big reason is that the game is faster paced, and the macro mechanics add to that and let u get a large number of units quicker than you normally would. This makes all-ins stronger and makes the game quicker, making it easier for players to lose due to very small mistakes or unlucky scouting. Another reason is of course the easier mechanics of the game, which I feel makes there be less of a difference between top players since almost any1 in the top 50 can macro nearly perfectly (esp. with toss ). We see upsets in BW too but definitely not as much
Perhaps volatility did play a role in MVP's demise, though from what I've heard in the LR thread (since I didn't watch the games), MVP just flat out didn't play well in his up and down matches. I need to watch the games for further confirmation, but I think many of the recent upsets are not due to volatility but instead due to players just not playing their best during the most volatile round of GSL. Volatility doesn't play a role in all upsets, so a close examination of the particular matches is required before discounting the upsets as proof of SC2 being too volatile.
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I completely disagree, I'd say losing the group stage and then losing 2 best of 3 series is pretty consistent.
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90% win ratio is a gross exaggeration. 60-70% winrate is a pretty good record.
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On March 16 2011 20:19 Kipsate wrote:
The gap between the best players and the mediocre players is small, hence why it is volatile in my opinion. It does hurt he player fanbases right now, but there is hardly anything you can do about that outside of the game itself.
Lol, that is a crazy way to use the word mediocre. I agree that we don't see a very big gap between the very best players and the second best players consistently yet, but come on.
I think a lot of the extra variance seen at the moment is due to a heavy influx of new maps compared to the the last period April to january.
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On March 16 2011 22:56 rushian wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2011 22:38 mr_tolkien wrote:
A lot of people are not understanding the point of this thread.
It's not specifically related to MVP, it's a feeling I got since season 2 and FDs fall. Then Nestea vs Rain. Then MC vs Jinro (a HUGE upset).
Saying it's linked to the youth of the game is also false. One year after the professionalisation of BW, they WERE players standing out clearly. It's not the case here, there are "top players" all clumped up together.
There is no bonjwa and none have the remote shape of one.
MVP never looked like one to me. Neither did Mc or FD. The only one I really saw really standing out at a point was Nestea, but nothing happened.
This guys are PAID for doing this. There HAS to be a player more gifted than the others. But clearly SC2 isn't made to allow him to stand out from the crowd. So.. if MC wins a second GSL in 3 seasons, will he stand out from the crowd? How much does a player have to do to stand out?
It's not linked to the results. It's linked to the level of play. Nobody seems to be just solid. Players fly across the leagues.
But consistent level should lead to consistent results, so in the end I think I wouldn't be saying that if a player did 3 or 4 back to back Ro4. But it just doesn't happen.
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On March 16 2011 23:20 mr_tolkien wrote:
It's not linked to the results. It's linked to the level of play. Nobody seems to be just solid. Players fly across the leagues.
But consistent level should lead to consistent results, so in the end I think I wouldn't be saying that if a player did 3 or 4 back to back Ro4. But it just doesn't happen.
And maybe it's just that. The players are not solid and do not have a consistent level of play.
Hell, even look at FD's interview for TSL. He even says that it's his fault that he hasn't been doing well and that he needs to work harder. I think MVP is pretty obviously in a slump right now. He'll rebound; or maybe he won't. Competition can be like that. People like Flash are not a dime a dozen; that's what makes them special. You say 'bonjwa' like it's free.
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I do feel that a good part of it comes down to how "figured out" the game is, and how comfortable players are with the mechanics of their race. For example, prior to MC's win in GSL3, Protosses have been whining about their perceived sub-par performance, and claiming that changes were needed. At the time, in one of the SotG episodes, Tyler remarked that Protoss has all the tools needed to win, and does very well when played near perfectly, but loses really easily to small mistakes. And you did see players losing because they misplaced 1 Forcefield, or didn't split their army perfectly when facing multi-pronged attacks, or didn't scout at the right timing and had their forge FE die to roaches.
Now, try to think, how many Protosses have you seen lose like this during the current GSL season? Not too many, right? That's because they got better - they became more comfortable with what their race required to be played well. Look at Marine micro vs Banelings, it's practically the standard in TvZ after the initial success of MKP. And you see Zergs experimenting with banelings in ZvP, both as drops as well as a straight up army unit - but it will take time before they actually become good at using them, and probably even more time before Protosses figure out how to deal with a new style.
All that being said, one thing SC2 seems to lack is the ability to come back from an unfavorable position. In a huge majority of games, one player gets a significant advantage at one point, and then comfortably rides it to a win. To reference today's MVP games, it's not too bad that MVP's failed attack put him way behind Genius in their first game. What I do feel is bad, is that there aren't many ways to turn a game like that around, either through skillful unit control, or some good strategic decision. Why that is, I don't really know.
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Agreed with the post saying the players are too volatile right now. MVP et FD won trophies but they still do not have what it takes to stay on top.
Players like Nada or July are, in the other hand, very consistent since the beiginning of their SC2 career. They are not bonjwas, but we can't argue that they are showing consistencies in their results.
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MVP really didn't play well today. I don't think we can blame the game for that. Maybe the real problem is overhype whenever a player has a good run ('OMG he's a legend, it's impossible for him to lose!' etc.). This game is far too unexplored to be dominated by anyone yet and there's nothing wrong with that.
edit- Also look at the BW OSL system vs GSL. In OSL the champion is seeded into the last 16 automatically and doesn't have to play and up/down matches. Plus there is more of a break between seasons which gives him more time to recoup and analyse the styles of those coming up to challenge him.
And even with this BW can be just as volatile sometimes. Last season we had an MSL between Hydra and Great with Flash going out in the early rounds of both leagues despite being the best player. Nobody could have predicted that.
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On March 16 2011 22:58 ilmman wrote:
Yes, I beleive that Starcraft 2 is so fragile. Take a look at the Huk game where I think he played against ChoyaFou... Choya outclassed huk in everyway in a match and huk DTS simply got Huk to cripple choyas base and army....
That's not fragility. It's Choya not taking into account something that ends the game if not taken into account, which is also something you should take into account when you're miles ahead.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Hmm, after viewing some statistics I must add something. The likes of IMMVP, MC have an impressive winrate. Having as much as 70% is quite a respectable winrate, is more of an upset or a ''slump''(if you will). So perhaps it is not as volatile as people might think.
On the other hand, Starcraft 2 is more unforgiving then BW in some terms, a single engagement can turn out to be GG for you, setting you back so far that you get basically lose already, but thats a discussion for elsewhere.
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On March 16 2011 23:44 Dalavita wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2011 22:58 ilmman wrote:
Yes, I beleive that Starcraft 2 is so fragile. Take a look at the Huk game where I think he played against ChoyaFou... Choya outclassed huk in everyway in a match and huk DTS simply got Huk to cripple choyas base and army.... That's not fragility. It's Choya not taking into account something that ends the game if not taken into account, which is also something you should take into account when you're miles ahead.
I've seen BW games where exactly the same thing has happened with DTs killing about 30 drones or probes.
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EPT
