EPTTL Mafia XXXI
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
1) You cannot assume that there is guaranteed to be a Village Idiot. I think this is self-explanatory. In any given game of TL Mafia, there are bound to be, at least early on, more townies than Mafia members that look 'suspicious' and thus would warrant attention. If there is no Village Idiot, then by mandating a lynch you are giving Mafia free reign to act for a cycle if you follow through with your plan, since they get to shoot who they want and then the Town lynches the "Village Idiot". 2) It is not just Mafia who lose if/when a Village Idiot is lynched. Assuming their is a Village Idiot, which I would say is still pretty probable, it still isn't a credible threat to say "well Mafia, if you don't shoot him we will lynch him, so what now?" Why? Because the Town loses as well. Too bad, so sad, it's a one-person parade at that point. As with point one, by agreeing to lynch on the second day you just give Mafia a VIP seat to the shooting ranges for that night. And don't even get me started on that WiFOM stuff. What if you don't lynch the "Village Idiot" since you are genuinely afraid that it's him? What if it's a Mafia member hiding in disguise? What if? 3) Vigilante Shooting does not guarantee a Village Idiot death. Well, I suppose to be technical I should say "clubbing". The Vigilante gets one chance to kill this 'suspicious' person. In a game with PMs, by some day long down the road people might trust each other, to whatever extent you can trust in this game. However, without PMs blue roles are powered down quite a bit. Medics pretty much play keepaway from the Mafia, protecting at night off hunches. There's no way to contact a medic, and it's ludicrous for a Medic to try to contact. Same thing with Detectives. Forget your "circles", since they have no place in this game. What it boils down to is since less people can be cleared than in conventional PM-laden games, there will be a higher number of suspicious people. While it is an okay idea to shoot somebody on the border between acting like the Village Idiot (but how does one define that?) and Mafia, more times than not the Vigilante will just shoot some random townsperson. And then we are out of a bullet, and the point of the game is to kill Mafia. If the Village Idiot is truly identified to the point where he/she is out in the open, why kill him or her? The Village Idiot's win condition can't be achieved if said person is simply left alive. Use the Vigilante bullet like it was meant to be: to kill Mafia. If there is overlap between "suspiciously Mafia" and "suspiciously Village Idiot" that's fine, but don't just fire away on the first person you see. On that note, double lynches need to be used with extreme caution this game. More on how to deal with this later once I stop being lazy. Oh, and Detectives, you are not sleuths in this game. You are suicide cops. There is no passing your knowledge on. If you strike gold, er, red, shout out. Don't keep it to yourself, since if you die you take your findings to the grave. Shout out the name of the Mafia, then the names of those you have cleared. If everything goes correctly and Mafia are out for revenge, you should die bloodied and lacerated at night. But at least you'll have done your job. Detectives, beware the Godfather. It doesn't deny in the Original Post that he can assume the mantle of the Village Idiot, which would make him close to unkillable, disregarding the Vigilante. More thoughts on this later, but if you are a Private Eye and you find the Town Fool, be wary if/when you choose to spill your secret findings to the world. Oh, and lastly, lynch an inactive. If they are town-aligned, they're not going to be contributing anyway. Might as well get them out of the game to save some trouble later on, since with a lack of Behavior Analysts reds shouldn't be expected to be caught day 1 anyway. Game on. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 04 2010 22:21 Amber[LighT] wrote: Detectives should not feel that they need to out themselves upon finding someone out. Their abilities are _REALLY_ powerful in this game and we need them to be cautious and analytical in their findings. There is a reason they can't act until NIGHT 2. Of course Detectives are “powerful”. However, there are no PMs, once again. You don’t get a circle, so Detectives are not as powerful in this game, and honestly, I don’t really see many Detectives being analytical or cautious to the point where they would be better off trying to subtly kill a red. That’s going to just lead to sniping. The one major reason NO Detective should out themselves is because of the miller role. There's no way to sift through posts to gather a reading on a player that could be green/blue and come up red on a check. This is like a reverse sanity check for the Detective. What's going to happen when a DT outs themselves claiming they found a red and then we lynch a blue/green?! Guess who's on the chopping block the next day? That's 2 DAY cycles we miss hitting mafia because of useless knowledge. Their abilities should be used to gather a town circle. Trust the players you check, and take risks in others you think are secure. In a 25 person game, how many Millers can you expect there to be? How many Mafia are there? If a Detective outs himself by finding a Miller and the Miller is lynched, then why wouldn’t you trust the Detective? Obviously if a “Detective” outs a blue/green by claiming they are Mafia, then you do lynch the Detective because it’s an obviously dumb move to make. I forget which game it is, but see the first game with Assassins. I believe what transpired was that an Assassin ousted a Miller as red, but because said lynched person flipped Miller, the Town did not lynch the “Detective”. Furthermore, there is no covert town circle. There are no PMs. Therefore, Detectives are not going to be able to tell people “hey I checked you” as in a normal game. Do not fear the Godfather. The chances of checking him are very slim. Regardless, his role only buys the mafia a day and he is in the same bucket as the millers. They will need extra attention. DT's once again: Trust your checks. We can go back and find out who's siphoning information out of your circles later. They can be caught, but it's up to you to play smart. If you think you checked someone and the check doesn't match up, then try to get the town to discuss it WITHOUT outing yourself. You're going to just accuse another player anyway, and we (the town) will try to protect you. Again, how can one siphon information out of a non-existent circle? Overall, your post would make sense given a game involving PMs. However, the guidelines you lay down and the assumptions you make are entirely fallacious given the thread-contained nature of the game. Also, ultimately how many times have RNGs actually worked to their desired effect? If it's feasible, go ahead and do it, since if you RNG somebody and they don't talk they count as inactive anyway. However, I've always just seen RNGs failing. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 09:19 Bill Murray wrote: I did pick up on that, but Pandain could just as easily be a Detective trying to defend someone, or a townie with a loud mouth. Why would a Detective defend on Day 1, especially since they can't start investigating till Night 2? Townie with loud mouth. Thoughts in a bit, busy now. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: Detectives typically defend people they find to be town. Combine that with his beating himself up over changing his vote to OpZ, your fishing for why I feel he's DT (when you know my actions are money as fuck), your DT fishing on your own earlier in the thread, and I present to you Bill Murray's first mafia catch of the game: Protactinium. Points: 1) as seen from the TL Mafia game I hosted, he is fitting in with his mafia meta. He makes huge "pro-town" posts as mafia. As town he is way more argumentative. I can provide the difference, but I would have to indicate who he is. 2) he is a fucking smurf who has another name on this site 3) He was fishing for the DT and "discussing" who the DT was, how to find him, and what he should do 4) He was curious as to how I knew Pandain was the DT when he knows I am a good player vote to lynch protactinium Point by point, ignoring some points. 1) Different meta. Too bad, so sad, go learn to be correct. 2) Of course I would make pro-town posts. Why don't you? 3) I'm "discussing" who the Detective is. Just like I'm "discussing" with the thread on how wrong you are. I'm also "discussing" how to find a Detective. Oh yes, yes I am. Learn to read, since the only thing you have correct about this statement is that I'm trying to tell Detective(s) what to do. 4) Pandain is the DT? You know this already? You must be such a good player! Oh wait... 5) Again, you're a good player? Since you're such a good player, you should concern yourself with less trivial matters than clogging up the thread, since that's what you're doing right now. Moving on. On October 06 2010 10:22 CynanMachae wrote: Wow, am I really leading in votes so far? Lynching me would really be a bad idea. I agree with all of you that Padain's posting is a bit weird on defending me, since he can't know that I'm not mafia from my 2 posts and saying I'm playing the same as usual is really not much cause I don't think I've even changed my playstyle much in games were I was mafia, and these two posts really don't say anything right now. So, since Padain can't know I'm not mafia (no detective play yet), the only way that he can be sure that I'm town is if he's mafia himself. He's probably hoping I do get lynched and can play the "told you so" card then. Not that I think it's a wise decision for a mafia but else I don't see why he would be defending me. The only reason I would see is if he believed we should lynch people that are more inactive, but he didn't seem to suggest that. Blue role, soft claim? Village Idiot, reverse psychology? Still though, Pandain's [un?]intentional tie-in is still something that can be remembered in the future. On October 06 2010 10:01 Pandain wrote: Also, wtf? I never told you if I am or am not DT. and if I was, it would be wise not to reveal it. But I'm willing to soak up hits, let the mafia hit me  Another one? Regardless, I'm not really worried with who is or isn't Mafia on Day 1. You guys can be, but don't ask me for my opinions. Seriously, kill the inactives at this point, and read over Day 1 again after everything's died down. I still see there's some discussion about what DTs should do when they find reds. As you know, my stance is that DTs should shout out as soon as they find a Mafia member. However, it seems that after that some people say things like "DTs should be creative" or "DTs should try to build a case first." However, let's look at this scenario: I am the Detective. During Night 2, I check player X on a whim, and it turns out X is Mafia. However, X has played a clean game up to this point and I have nothing on him, absolutely nothing. I don't have a circle I can trust since I'm not able to PM anybody, so I only have this information to myself. During Day 3, I focus hard (but not in thread, since I have nothing to build a case off of) on X. I die Night 3, and am unable to get my information out. The knowledge that X is Mafia dies with me, and I have not been able to spread it to anybody else. 1.While originally I was in support of DT claiming if he found red, I now believe we should not. With 5 mafia, DT's will be a very useful addition to regular scum hunting. In addition, if he does not claim but merely post up an analysis of that person and convince everyone he's mafia, then mafia don't even know that he is definitely DT. If said DT does get a mafia lynched, medics can/perhaps should protect him just in case. If you know someone's mafia while you haven't managed to convince people without saying "I'm DT and I checked him", then you should, as it will still mean we will be only one mafia away from lowering mafia (regular) kp to 1. So that's my input there. This is from Pandain. He pointed out that "Detectives are powerful since there are five Mafia, and they are useful for scum hunting? Of course they are. The faster a Detective outs a Mafia, the faster KP goes down to 1. If the Detective dies, then he's served a purpose--his job is to check Mafia. Before he goes, he can give out his innocent list, rat out the Mafia, die, and then his job is served. He forces the Mafia to use poison/KP as well to take him down. So if we were to kill the Detective(s) during a night, even if he/she/they found a Mafia, if they didn't start bringing it up pretty heavily in the thread then the Town has little to go off of. The Detective at that point simply becomes a person with a hunch, since his information died with him. Will vote shortly after flipping coins to decide on an inactive. Joking about the coins, of course. Most likely it'll be somebody that plays a lot but hasn't decided to talk. I'm thinking XeliN at this point, since I've watched enough games of his. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 11:10 infinitestory wrote: I say in order to neutralize the village idiot, village makes a "deal" with mafia. Once the VI is made obvious, the villagers will announce that they will all vote to lynch VI if he is not mafia-killed overnight. Since the mafia aren't going to sit back and watch themselves lose, VI will be neutralized. If VI is NOT neutralized, either mafia lose, OR the "VI" is actually Godfather posing as VI; in the latter case, the villagers stand to gain a huge amount. Now that this plan has been announced, VI must try get himself lynched subtly or risk the above plan being put into action. Be cautious, guys. EDIT: i voted for proactinium because BrownBear did too  its the cool thing to doNo editing. Also, as I've already stated town threatening to lynch VI doesn't scare the Mafia. If the VI is lynched, everybody (excluding the VI, of course) loses. Why would Mafia feel forced to have to kill him at night? BrownBear is the host. When did he vote for me? Also "its the cool thing to do" is such a nice statement to make, obvious implications | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 11:24 infinitestory wrote: Well, then can you offer a logical argument as to why mafia would abstain from night-killing village idiot if village idiot is exposed and town makes the threat I outlined above? I would be glad to hear any thoughtful criticism, as this plan needs to work perfectly to actually get rid of that idiotic nuisance. Right, there are two things I can think about, and sINiquity has addressed one of them. Only time threat would be credible is if the town was in a bad position, so Mafia wouldn't want to lose at that point. However, since VI counts amongst town numbers that gives the Mafia a free kill. Every death in the town is good for the Mafia, and this is a free kill for them without the thought of Medic protection. Also, you are assuming the Detective is genuine. If the VI doesn't die, is he necessarily Godfather? Or did a Mafia member posing as Detective call out some random person as VI? On October 06 2010 11:27 ghrur wrote: I voted for Protactinium because when I went back over the posts, he suggested that DTs out themselves as soon as they find a red... and then had a huge section where he didn't post. Now, I don't agree with that part because DT(s) have the threat of Millers and Godfather to deal with. These two alone could cause huge trouble for the DT(s). Sure, there might not be a high statistical probability of these two happening, but on the off chance that they do happen, sacrificing a DT for a mistake is extremely costly. Losing a townie as a miller or securing a godfather as a blue, and then losing a DT all in one turn? That's a huge loss to the town. Then, of course, there's this huge gap between him posting the idea and them him posting again, but this time it's more about the smurf. Now, I don't understand why he needs a smurf, but having that smurf has really caused some chaos. People lately have been worrying much more over the smurf than discussing lynches and such. Also, it gave the opportunity for someone like Pandain to claim to be Protactinium. I'm guessing that was a joke... but come on. Having the risk of someone being able to claim smurf? I don't like it. =/ Finally, Bill Murray seems to be sure that he's a red. Unfortunately, I couldn't read over the whole mafia link he posted (no time Dx), but he has to have some reason to make such a strong claim. =/ He also cited a behavioral difference for it, but with the claim that he knows the smurf. Idk how much I can trust it, but I do see the smurf getting in the way of clear analysis again. =/ Bill Murray is very good at catching reds. Please refer to his earlier games for proof of this. Also, I happen to have other commitments in life than TL Mafia, thus my time here is limited to certain times of the day. In the off chance that you do catch a Miller, which is 1/3 or 2/3 the chance of catching just somebody with the role "Mafia"... in a game with no certainties, I'd be willing to take that chance, since there are a guaranteed three people that are definitely Mafia and only 1 or 2 Millers. 75% and 60% are quite nice, and they would be darn good odds at Vegas. The Godfather is a trickier thing, but that's still 1/4 the chance of catching the Godfather as compared to other Mafia, and I'm assuming Poisioner and Roleblocker show up as Poisoner and Roleblocker. So therefore, if those two names show up you guaranteed. The reason I'm brining this up now is because I asked BrownBear about it, and yes those do show up as such. Confirmed with host that Poisioner and Roleblocker show up as such. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 12:07 NukeTheBunnys wrote: I think lynching the VI as a threat to the mafia, but its only really worth it if the mafia are really close to winning. Even then its a risk, but if the town is going to lose anyway, might as well go out with style. On that note, Im changing my vote to Protactinium. I don't want the mafia to be able to swing the vote away from a mafioso, and there certainly are enough no votes so far to swing the vote to just about anyone. so Im just going to put the leader further ahead. Also dealing with smurfs does not seem fun. Seriously? You're going to vote for me just because it "doesn't let the Mafia influence the vote"? And if you're Mafia, then voting for me is an influence, no? This is bad reasoning, and you know it. Crisis_, you too? What's your reason now... | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 12:19 NukeTheBunnys wrote: I think he is just as likely to be mafia as anyone else. Honestly I don't really have any strong feelings about who is mafia yet. Protact does seem suspicious, just like many others. I am also quite supicious of Bill Murray, but he will not get lynched based on current votes, and If Protact is a green/blue then I have a good argument vs Bill, since he is the one that started to get people to vote for Protact. This is also bad reasoning. Just because I flip green/blue doesn't make Bill red, since he's being regular Bill Murray in trying to catch somebody early on. Justifying your vote for Bill when I flip is a good way for Mafia to dodge out of having their vote looked at Day 2. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On October 06 2010 13:00 SiNiquity wrote: I getcha, heh. Also, Prot's headed to the gallows (bum just chimed in). Sorry buddy ~ could've thwarted this whole mess if you'd have fessed up. All is going exactly as I have planned. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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