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TL Mafia XXVIII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 08 2010 03:31 GMT
#63
/n
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 00:24 GMT
#321
I have arrived
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 00:30 GMT
#323
On July 18 2010 09:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
If we randomly pick someone, we have a better chance of getting a blue then a red. Why don't we try voting for who we think is red? It's not like the game will automatically get easier for us as it goes on, since there aren't any clues. Also, at this point everyone's votes are spread out so we are nearly guaranteed an innocent lynch. Getting everyone to agree to vote for the random could be awfully tough.

IF we wanted to do the random thing, we could tie it in advance to something numerical in one or both of the playoff games tonight. Like number of factories made by WeMade players, or that number divided by two, or taking the number of letters in each winning player's ID and looping back to 1 if it goes over 30. It wouldn't be random, but we could independently agree on it, and none of us could influence it in advance. We don't know the distribution of red/blue/green in the list so it is almost as good as random unless the reds get us to agree on a bad number (like maybe they get us to agree on something times 2, which would never land on the first person on the list).


We can take this step further by listing inactives in reverse order and numbering them from 1-X, use a number we obtain from the second paragraph and count through the list, looping when needed.

I'm getting carried away here...

I think lynching an inactive player is the best course of action.

I also think we should get a list of players who are new to this mafia game so we know who they are. A new player who's scum can easily hide under that mask; I think it's best we can monitor them from the get go.
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 00:33 GMT
#325
##Abstain in case I can't find it within myself to wake up early tomorrow to post (no other time >_>)
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 02:38 GMT
#350
On July 18 2010 10:40 youngminii wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2010 10:13 SiNiquity wrote:
On July 18 2010 09:59 youngminii wrote:
On July 18 2010 09:51 Bill Murray wrote:
EVERYONE abstaining? I guess it'd no lynch. Didn't expect that to happen!

Okay so everyone should abstain imo. If you have any objections to this idea, please raise it asap because we need everyone to switch their vote to abstaining. Even one vote = lynch and that will be very suspicious of the person who left their vote by 'accident'.

##Unvote Pyrr
##Vote Abstain

I'm not sure I like it. The inactives will get modkilled, no one gets lynched, the mafia kills 2 more people, and then we're back at square one, no?


Show nested quote +
On July 18 2010 10:16 Jayme wrote:
No-Lynch?

Oh hell no absolutely not.

I don't understand how a no-lynch is beneficial to the town if you're going to kill an inactive anyway. You learn absolutely nothing from it, you don't even have a CHANCE at hitting a red, and you're basically wasting a whole day on nothing.

No lynch is a terrible idea.

If we lynch someone on the first day without any good reason there's a solid chance (12/15) that we'll hit a townie. That's 80%. There's also a better chance of lynching a blue than there is of scum. A no lynch is a gift that we should utilize instead of RVS.


Bad idea, there's no incentive for town to post -> silent town = dead town
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 04:51 GMT
#369
On July 18 2010 13:45 tree.hugger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2010 13:09 Divinek wrote:
On July 18 2010 12:30 tree.hugger wrote:
And this bandwagon against Hyperbola is just dumb.

## Vote Laxercannon


why is it dumb

The reason it was introduced in the first place what completely ridiculous. Nothing smart about any of it. We should lynch people for good reasons, not dumb ones.

I'm still looking for more nominations for people to lynch. I think those three are a good start. Time to pick one, yes? How about I PM five people a list of the candidates in order, and then someone in the thread will choose a number from 1-3?


or

On July 18 2010 09:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:

IF we wanted to do the random thing, we could tie it in advance to something numerical in one or both of the playoff games tonight. Like number of factories made by WeMade players, or that number divided by two, or taking the number of letters in each winning player's ID and looping back to 1 if it goes over 30. It wouldn't be random, but we could independently agree on it, and none of us could influence it in advance. We don't know the distribution of red/blue/green in the list so it is almost as good as random unless the reds get us to agree on a bad number (like maybe they get us to agree on something times 2, which would never land on the first person on the list).
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 04:52 GMT
#370
Though I guess there's not much time left >.O
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 18 2010 07:13 GMT
#391
playoffs are done for today! my next post will be in....around 16-18 hours.
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 19 2010 17:13 GMT
#523
luckily I have this as my homepage or I would've missed the fact that talking was allowed again :X
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 19 2010 20:41 GMT
#534
On July 20 2010 04:50 Protactinium wrote:
I kind of want to draw focus to the "Abstain" list.
Show nested quote +
Abstain: (LaXerCannon, tricode, SouthRawrea, Chaoser, protactinium, zeks)

I haven't seen or read too many Mafia games with the "Abstain" voting option; normally I just see people voting for themselves but that is not allowed in this game. Regardless, the six people on this list are all fairly inactive or haven't been contributing much, myself included. Though tree.hugger has brought up that Mafia will spread their votes amongst other people, I do think he's right in assuming that at least one Mafia member is abstaining, since it's the easiest way out.

When I went back and searched for the relevant posts people had made, I found that most of the above-mentioned do not have really any substantial or substantiating posts. Luckily, chaoser has saved me some time by notating the abstain votes here. Interestingly, or not-really-so-, enough, abstainers have a pretty low level of useful activity.

Let's start with Laxercannon. He doesn't really seem to make an effort in the game, and only has one post in which he types more than a line of text. He abstains but then doesn't make any effort to change it over the course of the next four or so hours. Also, his lack of attentiveness can be seen in his latest comment, stating that he wasn't following the thread enough. From reading a few past games he's been in, he seems to normally be more active. It's really too early, in my opinion, to draw some sort of conclusive read but I think it can be conclusively said that from the evidence given so far, Laxercannon is not playing very pro-town.

I've never seen tricode play a game before, but I think he's one of the older players, judging by his posting attitude. Out of the people on the abstain list, he seems to be the only one who isn't just posting spam (besides myself, since I only have two posts... though even those two don't add anything!). He votes for an abstain because he has to see his dad off, and then says that lynches have to be used, since saying "what if" loses the game. This is a good idea. tricode reads pretty town in my eyes.

chaoser doesn't really seem to be saying too much, looking through his posts, though he did compile the voting list afterward for the final few hours of the first day. He reiterates some old points beforehand, but I do like the list afterward. Will have to beware of 'paraphrased wording,' of course. chaoser seems to be playing pro-town, but he doesn't do the analysis himself, saying that "others can make use of [this information] however they want." Undecided.

Southrawrea has almost nothing of value posted, and he seems like a new player, in part because of the editing. He wants to 'take it easy' day 1 since there's nothing to go off of, but isn't it beneficial to the Mafia to have the town discuss nothing? Once again I can't say anything conclusively (even to myself) at this point, but Southrawrea isn't playing very pro-town.

Me... I don't feel like I should speak about myself. I just replaced in this game yesterday, caught up at the end of last night, and am making an attempt to PM and post now. I don't want to be an inactive bum, since that just benefits the Mafia. The less inactives there are, the fewer hiding spots the Mafia will have.

And finally, zeks. Votes for Hyperbola as a placeholder (why not abstain?) but then removes his vote after the rest of the votes for Hyperbola, disregarding Subversion's, have been cast. Doesn't really say anything of value, at most just reiterates some known things. Not very pro-town.

Will attempt to comment on other people later as I go along.


Well he did say that there would be no talking for the next 24 hours and I took that as law. Why would there be any reason to be checking the thread at all. Expect less activity that normal for this night.
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 19 2010 21:21 GMT
#537
Anyway, for the lazy here's the voting stuff:
Jayme -> Amber[light]
Pandain -> Pandain (abstain)
DTA -> Abstain -> d3_crescentia
d3_crescentia -> DTA
DTA -> Unabstain
citi.zen -> DTA
rastaban -> citi.zen
youngminii -> Pyrrhuloxia
Pandain -> Incognito [what? he's not playing]
SouthRawrea -> Abstain
~OpZ~ -> Chaoser
BloodyC0bbler -> Abstain
bumatlarge -> Divinek
Pandain -> BloodyC0bbler
LaXercannon -> Abstain
Youngminii -> Abstain
Divinek -> Abstain
Tricode -> Abstain
Misder -> Hyperbola
Divinek -> Hyperbola
Pandain -> Pandain
Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain
zeks -> Hyperbola
SiNiquity -> Hyperbola
Roffles -> Abstain
tree.hugger ->LaXercannon
Foolishness -> Abstain
lakrismamma -> LaXercannon
lakrismamma -> Subversion
BloodyC0bbler -> Pandain
~OpZ~ -> BloodyC0bbler
Pyrrhuloxia -> DTA
XeliN -> Brownbear
iNfuNdiBuLuM -> youngminii
youngminii -> iNfuNdiBuLuM
citi.zen -> ketomai
XeliN -> youngminii
chaoser -> abstain
Amber[LighT] -> abstain
treehugger -> DTA
Amber[LighT] -> youngminii
Roffles -> youngminii
lakrismamma -> ketomai
DTA -> Amber[LighT]
bumatlarge -> Hyperbola
BrownBear -> Hyperbola
Jayme -> Youngminii
Foolishness -> BloodyC0bbler
Misder -> LaXerCannon
zeks -> Hyperbola
Subversion -> Hyperbola

I tried to make this look nice for a couple hours but this is probably the cleanest I can get it. Analysis on this coming up later
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 19 2010 21:39 GMT
#541
Lol oh I found one mistake as well yeah
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 19 2010 21:39 GMT
#542
fml, refresh
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 19 2010 22:15 GMT
#543
Resources (fixed)
+ Show Spoiler +
Jayme -> Amber[light]
Pandain -> abstain
DTA -> Abstain -> d3_crescentia
d3_crescentia -> DTA
DTA -> Unabstain
citi.zen -> DTA
rastaban -> citi.zen
youngminii -> Pyrrhuloxia
Pandain -> Incognito
SouthRawrea -> Abstain
~OpZ~ -> Chaoser
BloodyC0bbler -> Abstain
bumatlarge -> Divinek
Pandain -> BloodyC0bbler
Hyperbola -> SiNiquity
LaXercannon -> Abstain
Youngminii -> Abstain
Divinek -> Abstain
Tricode -> Abstain
Misder -> Hyperbola
Divinek -> Hyperbola
Pandain -> Hyperbola
Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain
zeks -> Hyperbola
SiNiquity -> Hyperbola
Roffles -> Abstain
tree.hugger -> LaXercannon
Foolishness -> Abstain
lakrismamma -> LaXercannon
lakrismamma -> Subversion
BloodyC0bbler -> Pandain
~OpZ~ -> BloodyC0bbler
Pyrrhuloxia -> DTA
XeliN -> Brownbear
iNfuNdiBuLuM -> youngminii
youngminii -> iNfuNdiBuLuM
citi.zen -> ketomai
XeliN -> youngminii
chaoser -> abstain
Amber[LighT] -> abstain
treehugger -> DTA
Amber[LighT] -> youngminii
Roffles -> youngminii
lakrismamma -> ketomai
DTA -> Amber[LighT]
bumatlarge -> Hyperbola
BrownBear -> Hyperbola
Jayme -> Youngminii
Foolishness -> BloodyC0bbler
Misder -> LaXerCannon
zeks -> abstain
Subversion -> Hyperbola


BloodyC0bbler -> Abstain -> Pandain
bumatlarge -> Divinek -> Hyperbola*
BrownBear -> Hyperbola*
Chaoser -> Abstain
citi.zen -> ketomai
d3_crescentia -> DTA
Divinek -> Abstain -> Hyperbola*
DTA -> Abstain -> Amber[LighT]
Foolishness -> Abstain -> BloodyC0bbler
Hyperbola -> SiNiquity
iNfuNdiBuLuM -> youngminii
Jayme -> Amber[Light] -> youngminii
lakrismamma -> LaXerCannon -> Subversion -> ketomai
LaXercannon -> Abstain
Misder -> Hyperbola* -> LaXercannon
~OpZ~ -> Chaoser -> BloodyC0bbler
Pandain -> Abstain -> Incognito (?) -> BloodyC0bbler -> Hyperbola*
Protactinium -> Abstain
Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain -> DTA
rastaban -> citi.zen
Roffles -> Abstain
SiNiquity -> Hyperbola*
SouthRawrea -> Abstain
Subversion -> Hyperbola
Tricode -> Abstain
tree.hugger -> LaXerCannon
XeliN -> Brownbear -> youngminii
youngminii -> Pyrrhuloxia -> abstain -> iNfuNdiBuLuM
zeks -> Hyperbola* -> abstain


What interests me is this block of voting:
Misder -> Hyperbola
Divinek -> Hyperbola
Pandain -> Hyperbola
Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain
zeks -> Hyperbola
SiNiquity -> Hyperbola

and these people:
Misder -> Hyperbola* -> LaXercannon
zeks -> Hyperbola* -> abstain

My head hurts so I'll just give a couple one liners for now (I've been digging through this damned thread for like an eternity)

The Hyperbola bandwagon
Misder @ 10:43
Divinek @ 10:51
Pandain @ 10:56
zeks @ 11:22
SiNiquity @ 11:37

Within an hour, Hyperbola gets bandwagonned and is in first place:
5] Hyperbola (Misder, Divinek, Pandain, Zeks, SiNiquity)
2] DarthThienAn (d3_crescentia, citi.zen)
1] Amber[LighT] (jayme),
1] d3_crescentia (darthThienAn),
1] citi.zen (rastaban)
1] chaoser (~opz~)
1] Divinek (bumatlarge)
1] SiNiquity (Hyperbola)
6] abstain (BloodyC0bbler, LaXerCannon, youngminii, tricode, Pyrrhuloxia, Roffles)
@ 11:37 (after roffles' vote)

Definitely suspicious considering how fast and compact the votes were together

Misder -> Hyperbola* -> LaXercannon
zeks -> Hyperbola*
-> abstain

Misder -> starts bandwagon, jumps off when Hyperbola's screwed
zeks -> fourth voter for bandwagon, jumps off when Hyperbola's screwed

attempts at lowering suspicion?
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 20 2010 03:33 GMT
#596
On July 20 2010 10:27 Misder wrote:
Also, as many people already stated, Hyperbola was not screwed all the way. It was 6-5 for Hyperbola, a very close vote.

Anyways... ITS 9:27!!!!!! WHERE IS THE DAY POST!!!!


Of course, wouldn't that be the best case scenario for mafia? Make it a close lynch and save some of your own people from being suspected.

Don't be in such a rush for the day post It gives town more time to think


On July 20 2010 08:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
When this supposed bandwagon started, I believe no one had more than one vote. I can't see more than one or two reds organizing a vote against youngminii in this situation. Reds bandwagon to save their own and no one was in mortal danger. Even if they thought youngminii was blue (I didn't see any reason to think that), they could kill him at night. Herd mentality isn't suspicious, it's par for the course.


I agree. There are a couple scenarios that could've taken place. Myself, I believe that misder (green) started the bandwagon and then mafia noticed that this could be an easy bandwagon and sent some of their own in to help. There's also the case that misder himself is mafia and the third or fourth voter is as well and they just pushed a standard bandwagon to fuck with us...not very convincing which is why I maintain that misder has a better chance of being green.

Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 20 2010 04:16 GMT
#606
On July 20 2010 13:11 Bill Murray wrote:
the day technically started at 9 pm est/10 kst
my girlfriend and i have been fighting, and i'm sorry that that inhibited my ability to resolve the night's action on time, but we really needed a night out together, and went to see the movie inception. i would like to add that i am now engaged to be married. i will make the day start from midnight tonight as a result. let me go through the actions and see who was to be killed/protected/etc.


congratz
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 00:27 GMT
#782
On July 21 2010 09:09 Subversion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 06:09 citi.zen wrote:
On July 21 2010 05:56 DarthThienAn wrote:
On July 21 2010 05:51 Pandain wrote:
On July 21 2010 05:46 DarthThienAn wrote:

Actually, the mafia made a huge mistake - one of their hits failed, or they stacked their hits on Foolishness, a townie. A smart/good player, but only 1 townie nonetheless. The less people there are, the greater their voting power, it's stupid to stack on night 1. So to me, the statement IS false, but the reason why it's suspicious is that no one would ever genuinely say that -> mafia.



Haha, you're right about that mistake. However, I thought it had been determined that D3 was also hit but protected by a medic. So they didn't stack their hits, one of their hits simply failed. And the more important thing is why would no one say that? Heck, I might say that. "Hey the mafia are doing pretty good." Just to be sure when I'm voting, please explain more.

+ Show Spoiler +
If Subversion IS mafia, i'm so going to kill myself.


There's the possibility that d3 is a mafia faking taking a hit. It's low chance, but not 0% so I didn't leave it out.

Other than that, he's either a veteran and/or got medic protection.

What do you mean? My thoughts: Mafia FAILED last night strategically. Subversion was NOT being sarcastic/joking (look at his post). So why would he say that? Furthermore, even if the mafia HAD failed, saying that "mafia aren't making too many mistakes" is an extremely odd statement to make. Sure, it's not the best lead, but it's better than me, and I'm willing to let BB redeem himself if he happens to be a terrible townie. Subversion, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be on the path to correction at all.

I don't know... I am leaning with Pandain here. Subversion is a brand new player who does not know what to expect in these games. I can see him think... "How do you catch mafia? You watch for mistakes! Have we caught any? Nope. Ah - so thus far they aren't making too many mistakes."

I see no huge red flag. That said, he does not strike me as someone useful for the town so I am OK losing him if there are no better candidates.


THANK YOU fucking hell. I played in ONE NIGHT of harry potter mafia, I got temp banned for some stupid joke and got replaced

This is my first game ffs, I didn't realise what I said would make it "oh gg, he's mafia lol, what a fkn moron". I was trying to be useful

Seems like everyone is jumping on my voting bandwagon, I get what I said was stupid now, although I still don't really understand why its a fucknormous mistake. I was simply stating what to me, was a fairly obvious fact. It was kind of a justification for my vote to be honest. I didn't see any major mistakes, I didn't have anyone I felt REALLY deserved a vote, but I didn't wanna abstain and I thought Hyperbola was fucked anyway. So I read what he said and what others said, there didn't really seem like any better choice, so I just voted for him. Like I said, I didn't really think my vote mattered much anyway. I also had Bill up my ass saying I was gonna be modkilled if I didn't vote!

I really don't want to be voted out here, I don't want to roleclaim either, but I can if necessary??


Really bad idea.

Looking through the perspective of you being green/blue
- the last tally was before the two unvotes so the fact that you thought he was fucked _might_ be true.

Looking through the perspective of you being red
-it's your first game, and you're dropping the ball hard
-you can't hide your scummy side properly
-the "I'm new" card is a good way to stay out of trouble and has been used before by mafia. [After reading DTA's forum when he was red, I noticed that generally the newer players take orders from experienced players to the point.]


That being said, I still suck at behavioral analysis (see my past games) so I'll remain neutral on this matter for a little longer.
##Vote: Abstain
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 00:31 GMT
#785
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 01:04 GMT
#788
On July 21 2010 09:42 Subversion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 21 2010 09:31 LaXerCannon wrote:
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote:
Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes.

Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see.

My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/


You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning.


I've already defended this a million times now I told you, there was noone else that looked better, and I didn't want to abstain. Sure, maybe I should've just abstained, but everyone was saying abstaining is stupid and I'm new and I didn't want to fuck up. Lol, that's gone great so far

Also, why the fuck all the attention on my vote? Someone made a great post about how Hyperbola's fate was sealed in a block of 4 or 5 votes within an hour. Why is noone looking at those people? My vote came hours afterwards, when he was already circling the drain. It seems pretty clear to me that I'm just a n00b townie jumping on a bandwagon.

Why has everyone forgotten about the big group of people that STARTED the bandwagon in the 1st place?


I didn't say that that wasn't the case. I merely said why it's a bad idea. If you look, I didn't even vote for you.

To answer your questions:
1. It was 5-5 with hyperbola going to die. two people unvoted near the end -> mafia thinks that another might bail making it 4-5 so by adding one more vote, you're putting the nail on the coffin.

2. Mafia has no reason to start a bandwagon on the very first day.
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 01:37 GMT
#797
On July 21 2010 10:12 Subversion wrote:
Your two reasons contradict each other imo.

You're saying that Hyperbola was a mafia vote - but you're also saying the people who started the bandwagon with 5 votes are likely not mafia?

That makes no sense =/


can you not think of a scenario that involves both? dumb people start the vote then the mafia sees a chance and helps it in anyway possible.

of course, it's just a scenario and is not fact
Just keep swimming
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