TL Mafia XXVIII
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 18 2010 09:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: If we randomly pick someone, we have a better chance of getting a blue then a red. Why don't we try voting for who we think is red? It's not like the game will automatically get easier for us as it goes on, since there aren't any clues. Also, at this point everyone's votes are spread out so we are nearly guaranteed an innocent lynch. Getting everyone to agree to vote for the random could be awfully tough. IF we wanted to do the random thing, we could tie it in advance to something numerical in one or both of the playoff games tonight. Like number of factories made by WeMade players, or that number divided by two, or taking the number of letters in each winning player's ID and looping back to 1 if it goes over 30. It wouldn't be random, but we could independently agree on it, and none of us could influence it in advance. We don't know the distribution of red/blue/green in the list so it is almost as good as random unless the reds get us to agree on a bad number (like maybe they get us to agree on something times 2, which would never land on the first person on the list). We can take this step further by listing inactives in reverse order and numbering them from 1-X, use a number we obtain from the second paragraph and count through the list, looping when needed. I'm getting carried away here... I think lynching an inactive player is the best course of action. I also think we should get a list of players who are new to this mafia game so we know who they are. A new player who's scum can easily hide under that mask; I think it's best we can monitor them from the get go. | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 18 2010 10:40 youngminii wrote: If we lynch someone on the first day without any good reason there's a solid chance (12/15) that we'll hit a townie. That's 80%. There's also a better chance of lynching a blue than there is of scum. A no lynch is a gift that we should utilize instead of RVS. Bad idea, there's no incentive for town to post -> silent town = dead town | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 18 2010 13:45 tree.hugger wrote: The reason it was introduced in the first place what completely ridiculous. Nothing smart about any of it. We should lynch people for good reasons, not dumb ones. I'm still looking for more nominations for people to lynch. I think those three are a good start. Time to pick one, yes? How about I PM five people a list of the candidates in order, and then someone in the thread will choose a number from 1-3? or On July 18 2010 09:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: IF we wanted to do the random thing, we could tie it in advance to something numerical in one or both of the playoff games tonight. Like number of factories made by WeMade players, or that number divided by two, or taking the number of letters in each winning player's ID and looping back to 1 if it goes over 30. It wouldn't be random, but we could independently agree on it, and none of us could influence it in advance. We don't know the distribution of red/blue/green in the list so it is almost as good as random unless the reds get us to agree on a bad number (like maybe they get us to agree on something times 2, which would never land on the first person on the list). | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 20 2010 04:50 Protactinium wrote: I kind of want to draw focus to the "Abstain" list. I haven't seen or read too many Mafia games with the "Abstain" voting option; normally I just see people voting for themselves but that is not allowed in this game. Regardless, the six people on this list are all fairly inactive or haven't been contributing much, myself included. Though tree.hugger has brought up that Mafia will spread their votes amongst other people, I do think he's right in assuming that at least one Mafia member is abstaining, since it's the easiest way out. When I went back and searched for the relevant posts people had made, I found that most of the above-mentioned do not have really any substantial or substantiating posts. Luckily, chaoser has saved me some time by notating the abstain votes here. Interestingly, or not-really-so-, enough, abstainers have a pretty low level of useful activity. Let's start with Laxercannon. He doesn't really seem to make an effort in the game, and only has one post in which he types more than a line of text. He abstains but then doesn't make any effort to change it over the course of the next four or so hours. Also, his lack of attentiveness can be seen in his latest comment, stating that he wasn't following the thread enough. From reading a few past games he's been in, he seems to normally be more active. It's really too early, in my opinion, to draw some sort of conclusive read but I think it can be conclusively said that from the evidence given so far, Laxercannon is not playing very pro-town. I've never seen tricode play a game before, but I think he's one of the older players, judging by his posting attitude. Out of the people on the abstain list, he seems to be the only one who isn't just posting spam (besides myself, since I only have two posts... though even those two don't add anything!). He votes for an abstain because he has to see his dad off, and then says that lynches have to be used, since saying "what if" loses the game. This is a good idea. tricode reads pretty town in my eyes. chaoser doesn't really seem to be saying too much, looking through his posts, though he did compile the voting list afterward for the final few hours of the first day. He reiterates some old points beforehand, but I do like the list afterward. Will have to beware of 'paraphrased wording,' of course. chaoser seems to be playing pro-town, but he doesn't do the analysis himself, saying that "others can make use of [this information] however they want." Undecided. Southrawrea has almost nothing of value posted, and he seems like a new player, in part because of the editing. He wants to 'take it easy' day 1 since there's nothing to go off of, but isn't it beneficial to the Mafia to have the town discuss nothing? Once again I can't say anything conclusively (even to myself) at this point, but Southrawrea isn't playing very pro-town. Me... I don't feel like I should speak about myself. I just replaced in this game yesterday, caught up at the end of last night, and am making an attempt to PM and post now. I don't want to be an inactive bum, since that just benefits the Mafia. The less inactives there are, the fewer hiding spots the Mafia will have. And finally, zeks. Votes for Hyperbola as a placeholder (why not abstain?) but then removes his vote after the rest of the votes for Hyperbola, disregarding Subversion's, have been cast. Doesn't really say anything of value, at most just reiterates some known things. Not very pro-town. Will attempt to comment on other people later as I go along. Well he did say that there would be no talking for the next 24 hours and I took that as law. Why would there be any reason to be checking the thread at all. Expect less activity that normal for this night. | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
Jayme -> Amber[light] Pandain -> Pandain (abstain) DTA -> Abstain -> d3_crescentia d3_crescentia -> DTA DTA -> Unabstain citi.zen -> DTA rastaban -> citi.zen youngminii -> Pyrrhuloxia Pandain -> Incognito [what? he's not playing] SouthRawrea -> Abstain ~OpZ~ -> Chaoser BloodyC0bbler -> Abstain bumatlarge -> Divinek Pandain -> BloodyC0bbler LaXercannon -> Abstain Youngminii -> Abstain Divinek -> Abstain Tricode -> Abstain Misder -> Hyperbola Divinek -> Hyperbola Pandain -> Pandain Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain zeks -> Hyperbola SiNiquity -> Hyperbola Roffles -> Abstain tree.hugger ->LaXercannon Foolishness -> Abstain lakrismamma -> LaXercannon lakrismamma -> Subversion BloodyC0bbler -> Pandain ~OpZ~ -> BloodyC0bbler Pyrrhuloxia -> DTA XeliN -> Brownbear iNfuNdiBuLuM -> youngminii youngminii -> iNfuNdiBuLuM citi.zen -> ketomai XeliN -> youngminii chaoser -> abstain Amber[LighT] -> abstain treehugger -> DTA Amber[LighT] -> youngminii Roffles -> youngminii lakrismamma -> ketomai DTA -> Amber[LighT] bumatlarge -> Hyperbola BrownBear -> Hyperbola Jayme -> Youngminii Foolishness -> BloodyC0bbler Misder -> LaXerCannon zeks -> Hyperbola Subversion -> Hyperbola I tried to make this look nice for a couple hours but this is probably the cleanest I can get it. Analysis on this coming up later | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
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LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Jayme -> Amber[light] Pandain -> abstain DTA -> Abstain -> d3_crescentia d3_crescentia -> DTA DTA -> Unabstain citi.zen -> DTA rastaban -> citi.zen youngminii -> Pyrrhuloxia Pandain -> Incognito SouthRawrea -> Abstain ~OpZ~ -> Chaoser BloodyC0bbler -> Abstain bumatlarge -> Divinek Pandain -> BloodyC0bbler Hyperbola -> SiNiquity LaXercannon -> Abstain Youngminii -> Abstain Divinek -> Abstain Tricode -> Abstain Misder -> Hyperbola Divinek -> Hyperbola Pandain -> Hyperbola Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain zeks -> Hyperbola SiNiquity -> Hyperbola Roffles -> Abstain tree.hugger -> LaXercannon Foolishness -> Abstain lakrismamma -> LaXercannon lakrismamma -> Subversion BloodyC0bbler -> Pandain ~OpZ~ -> BloodyC0bbler Pyrrhuloxia -> DTA XeliN -> Brownbear iNfuNdiBuLuM -> youngminii youngminii -> iNfuNdiBuLuM citi.zen -> ketomai XeliN -> youngminii chaoser -> abstain Amber[LighT] -> abstain treehugger -> DTA Amber[LighT] -> youngminii Roffles -> youngminii lakrismamma -> ketomai DTA -> Amber[LighT] bumatlarge -> Hyperbola BrownBear -> Hyperbola Jayme -> Youngminii Foolishness -> BloodyC0bbler Misder -> LaXerCannon zeks -> abstain Subversion -> Hyperbola BloodyC0bbler -> Abstain -> Pandain bumatlarge -> Divinek -> Hyperbola* BrownBear -> Hyperbola* Chaoser -> Abstain citi.zen -> ketomai d3_crescentia -> DTA Divinek -> Abstain -> Hyperbola* DTA -> Abstain -> Amber[LighT] Foolishness -> Abstain -> BloodyC0bbler Hyperbola -> SiNiquity iNfuNdiBuLuM -> youngminii Jayme -> Amber[Light] -> youngminii lakrismamma -> LaXerCannon -> Subversion -> ketomai LaXercannon -> Abstain Misder -> Hyperbola* -> LaXercannon ~OpZ~ -> Chaoser -> BloodyC0bbler Pandain -> Abstain -> Incognito (?) -> BloodyC0bbler -> Hyperbola* Protactinium -> Abstain Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain -> DTA rastaban -> citi.zen Roffles -> Abstain SiNiquity -> Hyperbola* SouthRawrea -> Abstain Subversion -> Hyperbola Tricode -> Abstain tree.hugger -> LaXerCannon XeliN -> Brownbear -> youngminii youngminii -> Pyrrhuloxia -> abstain -> iNfuNdiBuLuM zeks -> Hyperbola* -> abstain What interests me is this block of voting: Misder -> Hyperbola Divinek -> Hyperbola Pandain -> Hyperbola Pyrrhuloxia -> Abstain zeks -> Hyperbola SiNiquity -> Hyperbola and these people: Misder -> Hyperbola* -> LaXercannon zeks -> Hyperbola* -> abstain My head hurts so I'll just give a couple one liners for now (I've been digging through this damned thread for like an eternity) The Hyperbola bandwagon Misder @ 10:43 Divinek @ 10:51 Pandain @ 10:56 zeks @ 11:22 SiNiquity @ 11:37 Within an hour, Hyperbola gets bandwagonned and is in first place: 5] Hyperbola (Misder, Divinek, Pandain, Zeks, SiNiquity) @ 11:37 (after roffles' vote)2] DarthThienAn (d3_crescentia, citi.zen) 1] Amber[LighT] (jayme), 1] d3_crescentia (darthThienAn), 1] citi.zen (rastaban) 1] chaoser (~opz~) 1] Divinek (bumatlarge) 1] SiNiquity (Hyperbola) 6] abstain (BloodyC0bbler, LaXerCannon, youngminii, tricode, Pyrrhuloxia, Roffles) Definitely suspicious considering how fast and compact the votes were together Misder -> Hyperbola* -> LaXercannon zeks -> Hyperbola* -> abstain Misder -> starts bandwagon, jumps off when Hyperbola's screwed zeks -> fourth voter for bandwagon, jumps off when Hyperbola's screwed attempts at lowering suspicion? | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 20 2010 10:27 Misder wrote: Also, as many people already stated, Hyperbola was not screwed all the way. It was 6-5 for Hyperbola, a very close vote. Anyways... ITS 9:27!!!!!! WHERE IS THE DAY POST!!!! Of course, wouldn't that be the best case scenario for mafia? Make it a close lynch and save some of your own people from being suspected. Don't be in such a rush for the day post It gives town more time to think On July 20 2010 08:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: When this supposed bandwagon started, I believe no one had more than one vote. I can't see more than one or two reds organizing a vote against youngminii in this situation. Reds bandwagon to save their own and no one was in mortal danger. Even if they thought youngminii was blue (I didn't see any reason to think that), they could kill him at night. Herd mentality isn't suspicious, it's par for the course. I agree. There are a couple scenarios that could've taken place. Myself, I believe that misder (green) started the bandwagon and then mafia noticed that this could be an easy bandwagon and sent some of their own in to help. There's also the case that misder himself is mafia and the third or fourth voter is as well and they just pushed a standard bandwagon to fuck with us...not very convincing which is why I maintain that misder has a better chance of being green. | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 20 2010 13:11 Bill Murray wrote: the day technically started at 9 pm est/10 kst my girlfriend and i have been fighting, and i'm sorry that that inhibited my ability to resolve the night's action on time, but we really needed a night out together, and went to see the movie inception. i would like to add that i am now engaged to be married. i will make the day start from midnight tonight as a result. let me go through the actions and see who was to be killed/protected/etc. congratz | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 21 2010 09:09 Subversion wrote: THANK YOU fucking hell. I played in ONE NIGHT of harry potter mafia, I got temp banned for some stupid joke and got replaced This is my first game ffs, I didn't realise what I said would make it "oh gg, he's mafia lol, what a fkn moron". I was trying to be useful Seems like everyone is jumping on my voting bandwagon, I get what I said was stupid now, although I still don't really understand why its a fucknormous mistake. I was simply stating what to me, was a fairly obvious fact. It was kind of a justification for my vote to be honest. I didn't see any major mistakes, I didn't have anyone I felt REALLY deserved a vote, but I didn't wanna abstain and I thought Hyperbola was fucked anyway. So I read what he said and what others said, there didn't really seem like any better choice, so I just voted for him. Like I said, I didn't really think my vote mattered much anyway. I also had Bill up my ass saying I was gonna be modkilled if I didn't vote! I really don't want to be voted out here, I don't want to roleclaim either, but I can if necessary?? Really bad idea. Looking through the perspective of you being green/blue - the last tally was before the two unvotes so the fact that you thought he was fucked _might_ be true. Looking through the perspective of you being red -it's your first game, and you're dropping the ball hard -you can't hide your scummy side properly -the "I'm new" card is a good way to stay out of trouble and has been used before by mafia. [After reading DTA's forum when he was red, I noticed that generally the newer players take orders from experienced players to the point.] That being said, I still suck at behavioral analysis (see my past games) so I'll remain neutral on this matter for a little longer. ##Vote: Abstain | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 21 2010 09:29 Subversion wrote: Go back and look. There's a tally by someone saying 7-4, then after that my vote comes. Someone stated afterwards that their was an error in counting somewhere, and there were 2 unvotes after that I didn't see. My vote only looks suspicious due to really poor timing =/ You don't vote for someone just because "they're fucked anyways". That's how bandwagons form. If we have a mafia starting a bandwagon, we _should_not_ just jump on it even if it's winning. | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 21 2010 09:42 Subversion wrote: I've already defended this a million times now I told you, there was noone else that looked better, and I didn't want to abstain. Sure, maybe I should've just abstained, but everyone was saying abstaining is stupid and I'm new and I didn't want to fuck up. Lol, that's gone great so far Also, why the fuck all the attention on my vote? Someone made a great post about how Hyperbola's fate was sealed in a block of 4 or 5 votes within an hour. Why is noone looking at those people? My vote came hours afterwards, when he was already circling the drain. It seems pretty clear to me that I'm just a n00b townie jumping on a bandwagon. Why has everyone forgotten about the big group of people that STARTED the bandwagon in the 1st place? I didn't say that that wasn't the case. I merely said why it's a bad idea. If you look, I didn't even vote for you. To answer your questions: 1. It was 5-5 with hyperbola going to die. two people unvoted near the end -> mafia thinks that another might bail making it 4-5 so by adding one more vote, you're putting the nail on the coffin. 2. Mafia has no reason to start a bandwagon on the very first day. | ||
LaXerCannon
Canada558 Posts
On July 21 2010 10:12 Subversion wrote: Your two reasons contradict each other imo. You're saying that Hyperbola was a mafia vote - but you're also saying the people who started the bandwagon with 5 votes are likely not mafia? That makes no sense =/ can you not think of a scenario that involves both? dumb people start the vote then the mafia sees a chance and helps it in anyway possible. of course, it's just a scenario and is not fact | ||
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