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Whoa, 28 pages o.O
If there's anything I've learned from the previous mafia game I was in, it's that clues are always right. Even if you interpret them incorrectly, they still are pointing to someone, and it's likely that your wrong interpretation is right. That's why this whole Ace vs L thing seems so bogus. I have to admit that I agree with L's argument towards using clues from the get-go, since with 20 mafia in the game, clues aren't likely to reappear in the foreseeable future and they won't be any stronger on Day 3 than they are on Day 1, there would just be more of them to talk about, and if we've skipped any analysis, it would be way easier for clues to get bogged down by a third party. This would be disastrous as it would allow a mafia family to avoid being linked to clues, essentially giving them the victory nearly for free.
You have to understand that the dynamics brought in by having two opposed mafia families make analysing clues so much more important, as those families will be looking to kill eachother, hence becoming unwilling accomplices in the town's plight. Moreover, the activity it would presumably spur would be invaluable, if not today, then tomorrow. It's also worthy to note that lynching anyone in the first couple of days is not in the town's best interest, we need to be able to discern between the different mafia camps, lest we tip the scale too far in one direction. Remeber - mafia families have 3 KP right now, but their KP will only go down if they lose 4 people. Hence, lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. Even if we do not lynch a mafia, it still works heavily against the town's favour, since it diminishes our strength as a whole.
Another thing to note is that there will be mafia running for office. A more intricate result from that is that they're unlikely to substitute bodyguards with their members if their candidate wins. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, I'd expect attempts on elected positions as soon as night one, since no one really has any substantial information this far.
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On February 14 2010 22:55 Ace wrote:
"let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are.
I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too.
Clues are always right. It's just that sometimes our interpretation of them isn't.
On February 15 2010 05:02 redtooth wrote:
i haven't finished reading but i had to ask: who are you again? i don't remember you in any mafia games before and you sure didn't play a lot if you think clue analysis is "usually right" lol. seriously 90% of early accusations based on clue analysis are wrong. go check the other games, there are those good at clue analysis (camlito, BC and i guess pyrr) but most of the other clue analysis from random people are trash and just distractions. like Ver said, it's the behavior analysis and roleclaiming traps that will win games.
Where did I state that clue analysis is "usually right" lol. Don't put words in my mouth. I believe that I said that clues incite posting, at least in the start, which directly increases material to analyse behaviour on. L even kindly took it upon himself to repeat that in a more eloquent manner.
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On February 15 2010 08:21 redtooth wrote:
and congrats, clue analysis incited posting. we have ~20 pages of day one clue analysis. now time to stop looking at day one clues and start looking at behaviors and getting the correct people elected and lynched. let me lay it out once more: day one clue analysis doesn't work unless you are a certified expert at it. and even then it doesn't work most of the time.
We're almost at the same wavelength now. I've been looking at behavious more than at clues to be honest, in fact, I can't say I've done any clue analysis so far. Although, I forgot to say that clue analysis is stronger for the mafia members since they can rule some people out, or make obvious connections to their members and rule it out. But I digress.
Man, the whole election and lynching thing pushing bothers me a little. The whole dynamic of having two mafia families changes that whole process so much, that it's not even funny. Lynching is kinda dangerous to the town as well, if we lynch a mafia, and the other family kills enough to lower their KP, we've set up quite a nice handicap for a family right there. The other option is to lynch a townie, which is the most neutral option I suppose, but it still hurts us as it removes bodies to absorb stray night kills, and if we lynch a blue role... well, that sucks.
As far as the mayoral election goes, I'll just say that I wouldn't want to be elected.
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Also, before I go to sleep, Phrujbaz is mafia.
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On February 15 2010 13:26 CynanMachae wrote:
First, I don't understand how Ver is getting that many votes...
Secondly, from the previous pages I've just read (well, more like the 20 previous pages), people came with the argument that people weren't playing the same way than in another game (Ver, BC), or that they were doing this that way each game (Ace vs L), etc, and based mafia accusations on that (among other things). While I agree that a slight change can be a lead, wouldn't it be exactly a mafia would play, not changing anything? Those are good players we are talking about, I wouldn't say that playing the same way is red, but changing a lot seems much less red to me.
I'm sorry, but what are you basing this assumption on? It's plain wrong.
On February 15 2010 13:46 meeple wrote:
I'm curious as to why so many people are abstaining... is it just because you can't decide?
None of the candidates have brought forth a decent platform that I agree with.
On February 15 2010 14:37 redtooth wrote:
the alternative is Ace and i aren't aligned but i am mafia. then reason out why mafia would go out of his way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family). lol i could have done that to earn ace's trust but that's quite a difficult target to trick. that scenario doesn't make any sense at all either.
Your post doesn't make any sense at all either. You're omitting possibly explanations as to why you'd go out of your way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family), but you don't need to include them cause you're not red, everyone can see that, right?
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On February 15 2010 15:16 redtooth wrote:
now that i've explained everything and come clean, will you vote me mayor?
Why are you pushing for office so hard? It's not as if a town role getting elected would suddenly have these super amazing benefits, in fact, the game is structured in such a way that getting elected benefits a mafia way more than a townie, even if the person elected is town-aligned.
On February 15 2010 15:45 redtooth wrote:
and goddamit this is day 1. you won't get a mafia the majority of the time. guys lets just relax and vote me as mayor and L as pardoner. if you don't you are being illogical... really...
Really? Telling people that they're illogical if they don't vote for you? That's really poor, especially considering how inadequate your election platform is.
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On February 15 2010 19:38 redtooth wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 15 2010 19:02 Nikoner wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 14:37 redtooth wrote:
the alternative is Ace and i aren't aligned but i am mafia. then reason out why mafia would go out of his way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family). lol i could have done that to earn ace's trust but that's quite a difficult target to trick. that scenario doesn't make any sense at all either. Your post doesn't make any sense at all either. You're omitting possibly explanations as to why you'd go out of your way to defend a random townie (or even worse a mafia of the other family), but you don't need to include them cause you're not red, everyone can see that, right? i'm sorry. i really am. i made the incorrect presumption that people would think for themselves this game. will make sure to explicitly lay out every though process i have from now on, no matter how obvious. first off, mafia can only distinguish an individual as either in their family or not in their family. they have to analyze the same clues, the same behavior that we do. but for the sake of laying it out in ridiculously simple terms, we'll go through each scenario individually. red would not defend other family red. there's no sneaking into the 'mafia family circle' or 'earning the trust' of a mafia. a mafia family knows every other member in the family so you can't trick a mafia member into thinking you are their ally. since the goal of one mafia family is to kill the other, there is absolutely no merit for a mafia to defend another mafia. scenario 1 doesn't make sense in that regard. SCENARIO 1
redtooth is from mafia family 1
Ace is from mafia family 2
redtooth defends Ace
mafia family 2 maintains full KP and uses it to target mafia family 1 red would not defend blue. first off, blues are indistinguishable from green so far. blues are also either actively trying to find and kill of reds (DTs), are actively stopping reds from doing their jobs (medics) or waste precious red KP (veteran). only one red may want to actively stop from dying is hatter because hatter dying may backfire on red. let's look at the scenario where Ace is blue. doesn't make sense that i would protect him were i mafia, would it? SCENARIO 2
redtooth is mafia
Ace is blue
redtooth defends Ace
Ace's actions end up proving detrimental to redtooth through one of the reasons listed above red would also not defend green. the reason is because there is so much risk involved in defending an individual - the attention shifts to you so quickly. the only foreseeable benefits are that the green trusts you and you can use that trust to sneak into town circles or get him to vouch you. but that only works against really gullible players and is a rookie mistake. SCENARIO 2
redtooth is mafia
Ace is green
redtooth defends Ace
town shifts attention to why redtooth defended Ace
Ace fails to get into a town circle because of the suspicions surrounding him
redtooth fails to get any meaningful information or trust combine that with my posting behavior, zero clues associated with me, and consistent (though sometimes adjusted) arguments and you have yourself a TOWNIE. any more questions?
What about the case where you and Ace are in the same family? If you are, what you're getting from this whole ordeal is people to look over it, AND you're pushing for mayor. Combine that with the horrendous platform that seems like it's crafted for a single mafia game and uh... doesn't look very solid.
Also, having no clues associated to you on day 1 doesn't mean shit, I have no clues assiociated to me either but it doesn't mean I'm the zombie-Jesus-townie-miller.
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On February 15 2010 19:42 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 19:27 Nikoner wrote:On February 15 2010 15:16 redtooth wrote:
now that i've explained everything and come clean, will you vote me mayor? Why are you pushing for office so hard? It's not as if a town role getting elected would suddenly have these super amazing benefits, in fact, the game is structured in such a way that getting elected benefits a mafia way more than a townie, even if the person elected is town-aligned. On February 15 2010 15:45 redtooth wrote:
and goddamit this is day 1. you won't get a mafia the majority of the time. guys lets just relax and vote me as mayor and L as pardoner. if you don't you are being illogical... really... Really? Telling people that they're illogical if they don't vote for you? That's really poor, especially considering how inadequate your election platform is. how is it logical to vote for anyone other than me and BM? all other candidates are either surrounded with suspicion or have zero information to make an accurate judgement on. you're right about it benefiting a mafia way more than townie... SO WHY WOULD YOU RISK GIVING IT TO A CANDIDATE YOU HAVE NO CLUE OR ARE SUSPICIOUS ABOUT? BM has shown his irrationality thus far so i am the most logical pick. man direct your suspicions at the correct place. seriously.
If you and Bill Murray are the only logical candidates, why are you telling me to vote for you and L?
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If you're a townie and get elected mayor, you're a dead man. I don't see why you push so hard for that post.
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L, don't lynch anyone if you have that option.
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How do you expect DTs to come forward, they haven't even had the chance to do anything during the night yet. Only reason to come forward as a DT today would be if you're the godfather of a mafia so you could potentially infiltrate townie circles, and even then, it's way risky.
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On February 16 2010 06:26 Caller wrote:
I already stated very clearly that there is absolutely no incentive for mafia to kill DTs right now, or as long as the balance of power between the two mafias is maintained. None at all. Mafia have no method of identifying other mafia at this stage this early in the game. They want DTs to clear up suspects on their lists. Mafia don't have to kill a single townie this game in order to win, either.
And I doubt a godfather would expose themselves this early. Why would they care about townie circles? Again, I stated multiple times that all mafia has to do is kill the other mafia. Infiltrating townie circles is a lot less useful than it is in games with just one mafia.
We can't just blindly post lists of confirmed mafia, what if we discover 8 members of the same family? If we post that, it's pretty much an auto-loss. Suddenly, being able to derive information from a somewhat private discussion becomes much more powerful. Couple that with the fact that mafia wouldn't typically want to kill DTs as you and it's not that bad of an idea.
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On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote:
Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot.
Fair enough, but I'm wary of the possibility that lynching a mafia will lower one family's KP. If that situation persists for a decent amount of time, it could be bad for the town. I'd also like to point out that if Empyrean flips green, you really don't have that much regarding associations to work with. Neither you do if he flips red, to be honest, seeing as he hasn't posted much, unless I've missed something.
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Bill Murray is right.
Vote for Nikoner.
Vote for change.
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On February 16 2010 09:53 SugiuraMidori wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Ver - Always a town suspicion
BloodyC0bbler - Early town suspicion
DoctorHelvetica - Town suspicion
MasterDana
johnnyspazz
Ace - Swing Voter
citi.zen
Vivi57
Empyrean
LucasWoJ
XeliN
Amber[Light]
Fishball
QuickStriker
789 - Admitted to profile-clue matches.
dozko
Nikoner - Swing Voter
tree.hugger
ShoCkeyy
Zato-1 - I still think he's red
Fulgrim
meeple - Swing Voter
Chezinu - Has claimed DT for what his word is worth
Scamp
d3_crescentia - Swing Voter
L - Pardoner
Zona - Odd behavior
Iaaan
~OpZ~
sidesprang
Shikyo
Caller
ohN
Abenson
nemY
Mystlord - Profile clue match?
redtooth - Mayor (Claimed Medic)
CynanMachae
Phrujbaz
tredmasta - Swing Voter
SugiuraMidori
Bill Murray - Swing Voter
iNfuNdiBuLuM
[NyC]HoBbes
Versatile
Faronel
Malongo
decafchicken
l10f
Foolishness - Acted red to me.
madnessman
_________________________________________________
I'll save Italics for potential lynch candidates.
If anyone would like a medic list, I can use underline for that.
Up for suggestions, updates, and fixes. I'd love if we could keep this updated and have it act as a summary.
Jesus Christ on a motorbike, how can you post that. How sure are you that the info you posted is 100% correct? You can't be. This is what I meant by "don't blindly post lists of mafia".
On February 16 2010 20:02 Ver wrote:+ Show Spoiler +A few things to address:
-Quit spamming the thread. This is the most active game ever and it's seriously hindering the ability of a) reading important posts (they get buried) and b) forcing people to be accountable (accusations get buried). We seriously should start enforcing a rule (as players, not as host at least for this game) to ban 1 liners and any low content posts.
-My accusation of Empyrean was not final, it was a setup. He messed up but he had a chance to prove himself, which was not really granted given his and my inactivity. Rarely is it feasible to be able to declare someone mafia by analysis without any kind of response. This is why it is critical that when someone is accused with serious evidence backing it that we make them accountable and not just let them brush it off and ignore it.
It's astonishing despite how enormous this thread is, a large number of people have said virtually nothing or nothing of importance. More attention needs to be brought to light on this, as these people are seriously crippling our ability to gather information. I'm sure some of them are simply put off by how large this thread is since some people insist on spamming useless posts over and over again. We need to force these people to start talking and get real information out there.
I went through the thread and compiled a 'useless list' of people who haven't made any serious contribution this game. A certain few are not there for various reasons, though it is possible I may have forgotten some. If you're on this list, better start posting and giving the best contribution you can if you want to help the town win.
Phrujbaz
quickstriker
shikyo
Opz
Decaf
amber
Xelin
Nikoner
tree.hugger
MasterDana
JohnnySpazz
Ohn
Tredmasta
l10f
Faronel
Nemy
Shockeyy
Scamp
Cynanmachae
Sidesprang
Fishball
Abenson
If you feel you are on this list unjustly, prove me wrong about your uselessness.
Why aren't you on your list? Or SuguiraMidori? I guess posting random lists of people is useful, I better start doing it then.
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Well... Chezinu publicly asked for stacked medic protection. Since we don't actually know how many medics the town actually has, this probably would only save him if only one family makes its move. Or if none do. Basically, protecting him is kinda a poor decision seeing as how he might be a Godfather for all we know, but it's not like we can verify that you're a medic through role checks any more, can we?
And if you didn't want to be in office why did you bother running in the first place?
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I'm red based on what? For all I know you're working together with Phrujbaz, trying to get me killed.
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^This post targeted at SuguiraMidori.
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Wow, can't believe both Phrujbaz and Midori were mafia -.-;;
On February 20 2010 10:31 L wrote:
On that note, I just went and updated foolishnesses old post with the new information we have because of the fact that uh... its a secret.
Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results
5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes
5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes
7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:46------------Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:53------------d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:58----------BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes
updated.
Nikoner stands out even more now; with so much green, and now a confirmed red voting for ver, why would he throw down the deciding vote after having voted for ver only an hour before? He also voted within a minute of a known red. His profile has graffitti.
Which brings me to another point; It seems the herrings that are listed in the clues are valid clues, but they aren't linked to the particular killer. We may have been very, very wrong about how we assumed bombs would be declared, as well as how double hits would be declared in the clueset.
We just lost 2 hatters. That's 4 bombs. There should be TEN people dead. We're missing 3. The clues dont' account for 3 overlapping hits.
This is pretty bad news.
I wasn't hopping on that particular bandwagon. Might wanna ask Tredmasta a thing or two as well.
Also, the
Shikyo did not move a muscle as a dull fork flew toward his face and plunged into his left temple. However, the killer was shocked to see two bombs explode in the field nearby, and warily began to sneak away from the crime scene as the debris crunched below his feet. When he was but fifty yards away, he heard a large tree fall overhead, smashing the Shikyo’s shack to pieces and turning Shikyo to pulp.
accounts for exactly 3 missing kills - two bombs exploding in a field and presumably doing nothing, since the other bomb hits were depicted in a way that rules them out from happening in a field, and it hints at Shikyo taking two hits, one with a dull fork and the other one with someone cutting the tree so it'd wreck his shack.
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the killer was shocked to see two bombs explode in the field nearby
Pleased to see two Gambinos gone for good, DoctorHelvetica sensed that things would naturally come to good order. Unfortunately for him, however, his peaceful thoughts were interrupted as a bomb exploded under the foundation of his house, which came crashing down on top of him.
Those are three bombs right here. Bill Murray's death was somewhat unclear, I admit, so maybe he had two bombs on him, but after reading the examples above, I'm not entirely certain.
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EPT
