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The MSL kicked off with three terrific groups and some entertaining games. It was even more special if you like watching favorites triumph, as the only true favorites not to make it through were
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Finally we get into the thick of things, though, and the real drama begins. Before we get to excited about the future, however, we ought to take a look at the past...
MSL Groups A, B, & E Recap
Group A
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+ Show Spoiler +
Fast fact: BeSt had only beaten Calm once before this game. Granted, their meetings have been few, but Calm had decisively beaten BeSt multiple times. Overall, I’ve been impressed by the improvement in BeSt’s PvZ since his last season, but beating Calm was something I didn’t expect.
The game was fairly standard, with BeSt doing standard FE into some sair-heavy harass in response to Calm’s 9 pool into five hatch hydra. Calm snatched the advantage when he delayed BeSt’s third with his hydras at a soft time in BeSt’s build, but the real turning point was when Calm chose to counterattack BeSt’s third instead of defend his own. With some brilliant storms and good army composition, Calm was beaten in the battles and just plain outmacroed, a constant problem when you’re playing against perhaps the best macro Protoss in the game.
Although Calm made some subtle blunders, give BeSt credit. He didn’t panic when he lost his third, both the first and second times, instead he took the fight to Calm where and when he was vulnerable, and because of that, was rewarded with a GG.
The game was fairly standard, with BeSt doing standard FE into some sair-heavy harass in response to Calm’s 9 pool into five hatch hydra. Calm snatched the advantage when he delayed BeSt’s third with his hydras at a soft time in BeSt’s build, but the real turning point was when Calm chose to counterattack BeSt’s third instead of defend his own. With some brilliant storms and good army composition, Calm was beaten in the battles and just plain outmacroed, a constant problem when you’re playing against perhaps the best macro Protoss in the game.
Although Calm made some subtle blunders, give BeSt credit. He didn’t panic when he lost his third, both the first and second times, instead he took the fight to Calm where and when he was vulnerable, and because of that, was rewarded with a GG.
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+ Show Spoiler +
Is it just me, or have there been a lot of wraiths in TvT’s lately? If that’s true, then this one is no different. Light chose a rather gutsy 14 CC against fOrGG, who chose 2 factory play. fOrGG played this textbook. He set up a contain at Light’s natural and did not let up, constantly sending in tanks and vultures, and eventually depleting Light’s natural of SCVs. Light battled back with a pair of annoying wraiths and good tank positioning, and eventually broke the contain altogether, but by that point fOrGG had an expansion of his own and an additional factory.
Things only got worse for Light when his third was scouted by an extremely well-timed SCV and thus delayed by a handful of vultures and a tank and then having the command center hunted down and killed by fOrGG’s goliaths. Even though shortly thereafter Light did get a third running, fOrGG was finishing his fourth, and, more importantly, fOrGG had re-established a contain and held map control, denying Light’s fourth and shutting down his dropship play. A halfhearted break out attempt was Light’s final move, and fOrGG just had too much.
Things only got worse for Light when his third was scouted by an extremely well-timed SCV and thus delayed by a handful of vultures and a tank and then having the command center hunted down and killed by fOrGG’s goliaths. Even though shortly thereafter Light did get a third running, fOrGG was finishing his fourth, and, more importantly, fOrGG had re-established a contain and held map control, denying Light’s fourth and shutting down his dropship play. A halfhearted break out attempt was Light’s final move, and fOrGG just had too much.
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+ Show Spoiler +
As it began, I expected this game to be 40 minutes long, courtesy of fOrGG and BeSt’s macro, but as I watched the 1 gate tech from BeSt and the FE from fOrGG, something told me it was going to be a quick game. I expected the tactic that would reduce the game life to come from BeSt, perhaps a reaver gone wild or some DT magic, but I must apologize to fOrGG. I misjudged him. Instead of his typical boring style, fOrGG went for something like a Deep Five, because, I’m guessing, fOrGG feels like he’s just too good for that sixth barracks.
It would not have mattered in any universe with BeSt as his opponent however. The real weakness in the Deep Six, aside from if you don’t know what you’re doing, is that the Protoss will get tech that blankets or splashes damage quickly to dispatch large clumps of m&m. Reavers can be weak against m&m because stimmed (and unstimmed, for that matter) marines take down shuttles with ease. BeSt was too good to go down to simple shuttle sniping, however, deftly pulling off impeccable reaver popping to completely decimate fOrGG. It wasn’t a contest. It wasn’t a game. BeSt sent a message that if he loses, he’s losing on his own terms, through his own shortcomings. BeSt, you impressed.
It would not have mattered in any universe with BeSt as his opponent however. The real weakness in the Deep Six, aside from if you don’t know what you’re doing, is that the Protoss will get tech that blankets or splashes damage quickly to dispatch large clumps of m&m. Reavers can be weak against m&m because stimmed (and unstimmed, for that matter) marines take down shuttles with ease. BeSt was too good to go down to simple shuttle sniping, however, deftly pulling off impeccable reaver popping to completely decimate fOrGG. It wasn’t a contest. It wasn’t a game. BeSt sent a message that if he loses, he’s losing on his own terms, through his own shortcomings. BeSt, you impressed.
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Light showed something that you don't see often. You can scour Liquipedia, but you won't see anything about triple port wraith in there. Calm may have known something was up, but he continued full steam ahead with three hatch muta as his opening, which, if he had planned to do any harassing with them, did not work out. Calm, perhaps because Light was playing rather passively with his wraiths to start the game, played gutsy and started his third. As soon as Light scouted it, he zeroed in on it and brought some m&m out too. Calm's defense was valiant, however, and Light walked away empty handed. At this point, Calm seemed to have the advantage. Light had lost a bunch of his wraiths and an m&m army, Calm had an extra base and was at hive tech.
The turning point came not from the wraiths but from the starports, which, having three, allowed Light to use two to pump vessels, the bane of Zerg, and dropships. Although Calm defended the dropships with almost supernatural foresight for the first couple attempts, they just kept coming, and Calm had to split his forces to defend both drops and the ball pounding away at his front, and even had to do this with his defilers constantly being irradiated. Calm fought hard, but Light showed some flashy play and unrelenting aggression that earned him the victory.
The turning point came not from the wraiths but from the starports, which, having three, allowed Light to use two to pump vessels, the bane of Zerg, and dropships. Although Calm defended the dropships with almost supernatural foresight for the first couple attempts, they just kept coming, and Calm had to split his forces to defend both drops and the ball pounding away at his front, and even had to do this with his defilers constantly being irradiated. Calm fought hard, but Light showed some flashy play and unrelenting aggression that earned him the victory.
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Light clearly had an idea about what his proxy barracks was supposed to accomplish, but whatever it was, it didn't happen unless it was to get a scout in on fOrGG's base. This time, both went for practically identical openings (minus the proxy), except this time it was fOrGG who made the wraiths, and Light who had the two factories. Then, with neither player threatening aside from some minor harassment from fOrGG's wraiths, both opted for quick thirds and early tank-heavy army composition. What ensued was a macro war, with an undermanned contain by fOrGG being broken and then superior dropship play by Light swinging it in his favor for the win.
Advanced from Group A:
BeSt and
Light
Advanced from Group A:
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Group B
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Don't underestimate the Pikachu Zerg's sneakiness. His hidden hatchery was just the kind of play you pull out of your back pocket when you're very confident and you're willing to take a risk, and it paid off. HoGiL almost certainly suspected something, what with the general timings being off for the first zergling spawn, which he scouted with a fortuitous overlord positioning, but he was unable to capitalize on it. Kwanro's hatchery advantage translated to a ling advantage, which he used with good timing to disrupt HoGiL during his larva saving stage for the mutalisks, and from there Kwanro didn't have to build a single mutalisk himself, as HoGiL clearly needs to work on his muta micro in general, or perhaps just his attentiveness. Kwanro sent scourge in and a trickle of lings to keep HoGiL defending with his mutalisks and they couldn't both defend the drones and keep themselves safe from scourge at the same time, leaving unlucky HoGiL decidedly Kwanrolled.
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I've always been impressed by Hwasin's TvZ. I know, it's fairly obvious that it's his best matchup but it's also his most elegant matchup. I find that Hwasin plays the most solid, analytical, and unrelenting TvZ around. I knew Shine had an uphill battle against Hwasin, but I didn't think it was impossible. Still, Hwasin was a heavy favorite and he played like it. Shine's three hatch mutas were fairly decent at harassing, though throwing lings away didn't help him. Hwasin looked very comfortable the whole time, while Shine played like he was behind the entire game.
Many Terrans try to put the Zerg in bad positions before defilers come out, but Hwasin didn't make a push until the defiler mound had almost finished, showing how confident he is in all stages of the matchup. Even after his entire army, vessels included, was destroyed in a completely ineffective attack on Shine's fourth, Hwasin did not panic. After grappling with some lurkers in the field, Hwasin rallied and went again at the fourth; once again he was turned back. Something can be said for Shine's defense for sure, and some timely swarms and plagues helped keep him in the game until he got ultralisks. Eventually, Hwasin's game plan kicked in, manifesting itself in a Terran ball of epic proportions supported by a strong vessel count and his above average micro. The game was effectively over once Hwasin streamrolled Shine's natural.
Many Terrans try to put the Zerg in bad positions before defilers come out, but Hwasin didn't make a push until the defiler mound had almost finished, showing how confident he is in all stages of the matchup. Even after his entire army, vessels included, was destroyed in a completely ineffective attack on Shine's fourth, Hwasin did not panic. After grappling with some lurkers in the field, Hwasin rallied and went again at the fourth; once again he was turned back. Something can be said for Shine's defense for sure, and some timely swarms and plagues helped keep him in the game until he got ultralisks. Eventually, Hwasin's game plan kicked in, manifesting itself in a Terran ball of epic proportions supported by a strong vessel count and his above average micro. The game was effectively over once Hwasin streamrolled Shine's natural.
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In my opinion, Hwasin should have stuck with what works. After extolling his TvZ against Shine, I have to be critical about his decision making in this game. There wasn't anything really wrong with the bunker rush; I think Hwasin may have come out a little behind but not anything significant either way, but this game was still one Hwasin should have had. Kwanro's ZvT has never been particularly impressive, but it is still solid, and mech has been mostly unraveled by this point. Hwasin's bio play is far and away superior to his mech play, so I did not see any need for him to play mech in this situation. Even though he took care of Kwanro's mutas and generally looked good throughout the midgame, I think perhaps a lack of focus did him in. Kwanro isn't the brightest player, and he doesn't overwhelm with his late game play or macro, so throughout the game I was scratching my head trying to figure out how Hwasin thought what he was doing was to his advantage.
Kwanro overall defended very well and took advantage of Hwasin's occasional carelessness with his vultures and his big carelessness in not defending the muta harassment at his natural better. Kwanro basically sacrificed his mutalisks to the mass of goliaths several times without inflicting sizable damage whatsoever. At that point in rewatching the games I was seriously wondering how Hwasin tossed it away, and the answer was in positioning and in Hwasin's decision to move out and attack the third. Kwanro wasn't playing possessed, or even better. He was single minded in his unit selection and tactics, but Hwasin enabled him to not have to change his tactics and so Kwanro won the game as much as Hwasin lost it.
Kwanro overall defended very well and took advantage of Hwasin's occasional carelessness with his vultures and his big carelessness in not defending the muta harassment at his natural better. Kwanro basically sacrificed his mutalisks to the mass of goliaths several times without inflicting sizable damage whatsoever. At that point in rewatching the games I was seriously wondering how Hwasin tossed it away, and the answer was in positioning and in Hwasin's decision to move out and attack the third. Kwanro wasn't playing possessed, or even better. He was single minded in his unit selection and tactics, but Hwasin enabled him to not have to change his tactics and so Kwanro won the game as much as Hwasin lost it.
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Two seasons ago HoGiL headlined my fantasy anti-team, and oh, how he delivered. I have thus far interpreted every advancement in his career as a fluke, and operating under that assumption has paid dividends both liquibetting and in fantasy. Fortunately for me once again, he delivered. Shine went for a 12 hatch, which I normally criticize heavily on 2 player maps in ZvZ, but I think the rush distance on Odd-Eye is at that critical point which allows you to get away with it in some circumstances, among them your opponent being either incompetent or overly passive. I'm sure HoGiL felt oh-so-sneaky with his hidden second hatchery, but with the ling wars having been won by Shine, the hatchery met a most grim fate, followed by HoGiL's spire.
By that point, all Shine had to do was not lose 6 or 7 drones to three mutalisks and a handful of lings for the win. I feel kind of bad for HoGiL because he did just get out-linged, which is never any fun, but then again, he probably wouldn't have gotten past Hwasin anyway.
By that point, all Shine had to do was not lose 6 or 7 drones to three mutalisks and a handful of lings for the win. I feel kind of bad for HoGiL because he did just get out-linged, which is never any fun, but then again, he probably wouldn't have gotten past Hwasin anyway.
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I love rematches because they allow for the comparison of map balances and a variety of other factors, both mental and otherwise. This time Hwasin actually looked somewhat vulnerable, and Shine appeared to have gained some confidence despite having lost to Hwasin already. That confidence didn't mean that Shine made the right decisions, especially canceling his spawning pool and expanding instead, delaying them both, but some heads-up scouting found Hwasin's proxy factory in time to know that he was going to pull something funky. Of course, that funkiness happened a lot sooner than Shine wanted or expected, but Shine bravely deflected a handful of marines and SCVs and 3 vultures with only a few lings and a building sunken colony. Shine then teched safely and happily to his spire and droned up, while Hwasin himself expanded and transitioned to bio play. Because of his factory opening, at the time that Shine's mutas began their harassment Hwasin's m&m numbers were uncomfortably low, but his micro kept them back until they had to be moved forward to deal with the threat of lurkers. Shine got his punches in while Hwasin's army stalled in the middle of the map before moving against Shine's third, an inadvisable move which had the effect of drawing Shine's mutas away but also exposing his army allowing it to be killed.
Things looked pretty much over for Hwasin when he failed to kill the third and Shine began his defiler mound, but Hwasin does have some of the best TvZ around, and his all around strength in the matchup was too much for Shine to handle once again. Using the mobility of the SK Terran as best he could, Hwasin maneuvered in ways that kept out-positioning his opponent, taking out Shine's morphing fourth and keeping the lurkers at bay with irradiate. Then, in the death blow, Hwasin leveled the third, putting Shine in a late game scenario on only two bases. From his flawless sense to his like-clockwork macro, Hwasin battled back to demonstrate that he was the better player.
Advanced from Group B:
Kwanro and
Hwasin
Things looked pretty much over for Hwasin when he failed to kill the third and Shine began his defiler mound, but Hwasin does have some of the best TvZ around, and his all around strength in the matchup was too much for Shine to handle once again. Using the mobility of the SK Terran as best he could, Hwasin maneuvered in ways that kept out-positioning his opponent, taking out Shine's morphing fourth and keeping the lurkers at bay with irradiate. Then, in the death blow, Hwasin leveled the third, putting Shine in a late game scenario on only two bases. From his flawless sense to his like-clockwork macro, Hwasin battled back to demonstrate that he was the better player.
Advanced from Group B:
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Group E
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From the openings everything looked pretty typical to me in this game. Canata went 14 CC, swiftly adding 2 rax as soon as minerals allowed, which, in all fairness, is a little atypical for a player, as far as I can remember, who has much more success with mech play than bio play, and hero clearly dug deep into his bag of tricks to find his 2 hatch muta build. Thus, the m&m&muta dance that so often accompanies these choices of strategy ensued, and depending on how you count success, either could have been considered to have 'won' it in that hero saved his third (and fourth) from destruction but Canata killed his share of mutas. The number of m&m only seemed to increase, however, even as the muta numbers remained the same.
Even so, hero's tactics worked and allowed him to secure a strong economy, and by the time Canata's vessels were revealed, hero had lurkers to handle the growing ball. Hero's tactic from then on was just to overpower Canata, whose macro appeared to be a little laggy in the game, because hero was able to constantly surround, flank, and swarm with ease. Perhaps Canata would have been better served to go with mech play, because it appears as though his bio is still weak.
Even so, hero's tactics worked and allowed him to secure a strong economy, and by the time Canata's vessels were revealed, hero had lurkers to handle the growing ball. Hero's tactic from then on was just to overpower Canata, whose macro appeared to be a little laggy in the game, because hero was able to constantly surround, flank, and swarm with ease. Perhaps Canata would have been better served to go with mech play, because it appears as though his bio is still weak.
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I do sometimes wonder about a player like Movie when he's playing a big game against a great player. Having watching Movie for some time, I have realized this: Movie likes reavers. In fact, Movie likes reavers so much, he opts for reaver strategies with a frequency that probably serves to his detriment overall, especially against a player like Stork who has probably seen reavers, and reavers controlled better than Movie does, and to give Stork a very good idea of what build he's going to see is to sacrifice an advantage. Unsurprisingly, it was reavers that Movie teched to. Movie's somewhat risky move to expand without got him punished by the far more experienced Stork, who then proceeded to expand himself and set up a contain.
Despite being backed into a corner by the contain, and having his shuttle sniped with the reaver inside, Movie battled back. On this day, I would have to say that Stork let Movie come back, and that Stork didn't anticipate reavers. Stork appeared to have had this game in hand, but slowly let his opponent come back with bad micro. All in all, it was a loss that Stork deserved.
Despite being backed into a corner by the contain, and having his shuttle sniped with the reaver inside, Movie battled back. On this day, I would have to say that Stork let Movie come back, and that Stork didn't anticipate reavers. Stork appeared to have had this game in hand, but slowly let his opponent come back with bad micro. All in all, it was a loss that Stork deserved.
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+ Show Spoiler +
There are few things more uninspiring in Starcraft than watching cheese fail. On the flipside, watching cheese getting rebuffed isn't necessarily inspiring, but this time I think is an exception. Hero played well, turning back the proxy two gates despite 12 hatching to start, which just had to injure Movie's confidence. Hero took care of the constant stream of zealots, and then teched to hydras for a simple win. I'm certain this would have been more of a game if Movie had, as I said with Hwasin, stuck with what works and played a straight-up game. Hero has good ZvP, but Movie's beaten Jaedong before, so I had to think this would have been a much more entertaining game if Movie had stuck with what works.
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+ Show Spoiler +
I was actually rather excited for this matchup, as Canata's much-maligned TvP (but its considerable improvement has gone rather unnoticed, I think) squared off against Stork's historically extremely solid PvT. The game opened with traditional 1 gate tech from Stork and 1 fac expand from Canata. Stork teched to robotics facility, which he used for a shuttle to secure the island, which Canata's dropship found, prompting an expansion of his own. Not to be outdone, Stork took a fourth. Canata used some dropships to seige a cliff above one of Stork's expansions, which killed far more dragoons than should have died, but in the end didn't bring the nexus down.
Stork's passiveness allowed Canata to move boldly around the map and I think it really gave Canata more ground that Stork should have let him have. Yes, Stork had the econ advantage but I think he was letting Canata get far too comfortable. Stork just let the Terran ball get to critical mass, which ended up costing him his mineral only, though this also had to do with the soft part of Stork's build during the transition to carriers. Canata's timely push from the mineral only to the natural forced Stork to reveal his carriers when he only had four which were not completely full of interceptors. As Canata brought down Stork's natural, he also built his own island expansion, which Stork harassed with drops but Canata eventually secured. Things got even worse for Stork when he failed to defend his isolated expansion from just a handful of tanks, putting him at only three bases. Canata continued to defend against Stork's carriers very well, with Stork attempting to break out of Canata's contain, and eventually Stork realized his condition and tapped out.
Stork's passiveness allowed Canata to move boldly around the map and I think it really gave Canata more ground that Stork should have let him have. Yes, Stork had the econ advantage but I think he was letting Canata get far too comfortable. Stork just let the Terran ball get to critical mass, which ended up costing him his mineral only, though this also had to do with the soft part of Stork's build during the transition to carriers. Canata's timely push from the mineral only to the natural forced Stork to reveal his carriers when he only had four which were not completely full of interceptors. As Canata brought down Stork's natural, he also built his own island expansion, which Stork harassed with drops but Canata eventually secured. Things got even worse for Stork when he failed to defend his isolated expansion from just a handful of tanks, putting him at only three bases. Canata continued to defend against Stork's carriers very well, with Stork attempting to break out of Canata's contain, and eventually Stork realized his condition and tapped out.
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+ Show Spoiler +
Unlike his successes in PvZ, Movie has not had the same successes in his PvT. This would have contrasted well with Canata's TvP, except he had just beaten Stork and eliminated him from the MSL. At this point, Canata's new TvP and probably some new confidence would prove a difficult obstacle for Movie, whose confidence probably had taken a hit after failing brilliantly against hero. Canata once again went 1 fac expand, which Movie delayed with a handful of dragoons from his 1 gate tech. I was honestly surprised not to see reavers from Movie this game, who instead took his natural and dropped his templar archives.
Things started to go wrong for Movie when he lost his shuttle to two well placed goliaths and both his DTs were killed while doing practically no damage whatsoever. Both players took their third while Canata added factories and Movie got his arbiter tribunal down. Movie proceeded to expand and employ recall repeatedly, much to Canata's annoyance, but they didn't seem to do much damage.
As Movie depleted his supply with constant recalls that went nowhere, the Terran ball continued to swell. After some back and forth fighting, even with Movie being positively brutal with his arbiters, Canata gradually gained ground that Movie could not get back, having lost so many units, and it was not long before he surrendered.
Advanced from Group E:
by.hero and
Canata
Things started to go wrong for Movie when he lost his shuttle to two well placed goliaths and both his DTs were killed while doing practically no damage whatsoever. Both players took their third while Canata added factories and Movie got his arbiter tribunal down. Movie proceeded to expand and employ recall repeatedly, much to Canata's annoyance, but they didn't seem to do much damage.
As Movie depleted his supply with constant recalls that went nowhere, the Terran ball continued to swell. After some back and forth fighting, even with Movie being positively brutal with his arbiters, Canata gradually gained ground that Movie could not get back, having lost so many units, and it was not long before he surrendered.
Advanced from Group E:
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MSL Groups C, D, & F Preview
Group C
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Winner's < Match Point >
Loser's < Match Point >
Final < Fighting Spirit >
There was a time when I would have taken Saint, hands down, to win this first game. That's because there was a time when Saint was showing promise. Basically since I proclaimed his ascent in a five up, five down of Zerg noobies, he returned to the giant heap of mediocre Zergs. Make no mistake, he can still play inspired Starcraft at times, but coincidentally at about the same time as Saint was on the decline, Iris was on the rise. Iris definitely impressed last season, on every front, proving that he is the most solid CJ Terran, and that he can still lead a team. Lately he's been on something of a slide, but I'm picking this game for him to get hot again. He hasn't had a big Proleague load, and I think Saint is the perfect opponent for him to gain some of his old form back against.
We've seen this matchup of hyvaa and Flash before, twice now in fact, and both times, it's been very clear that hyvaa is outclassed--significantly. I don't see hyvaa pulling this one off, as good as he can sometimes be, because, plainly put, Flash is just on another level entirely. Hyvaa has shown a lot of promise in the past, and usually when it's not expected, but showing promise won't be enough against an opponent as brutal as Flash. Fun fact: Flash is 18-2 in his last 20 TvZ's, and has won 8 straight. Before picking this game, do you really think a streak like that is going to meet its end with hyvaa?
So, I hope to see Iris and Flash playing in the Winner's game, and I'll be quite happy to see it. This would be a rematch of the season 3 GOM Finals. All bets have to be on Flash if they meet here, as Iris historically has struggled against Flash (and there's no shame in that) but they typically produce good games. Fun fact: Flash is 21-3 in his last 24 TvTs. Iris is 7-1 in his last 8. The good money is on Flash. Of course, Saint also has a shot to get here, but it's basically the same story as above with hyvaa. Nothing is going to stop Flash from taking this group 2-0, the way I see it.
The Loser's match will likely be another forgettable ZvZ. Both of these players are historically, well, bad, at the matchup, although I give a slight edge to hyvaa, whose muta micro I think is measurably better than Saint's, despite Saint's record being better. If this game gets to mutalisks, I give the edge to hyvaa, but really, all bets are off. If we see Iris and hyvaa here, I'm afraid Iris is going to be the first one out of this group. Why? Because if he can lose to Saint, barring cheese or somesuch, he can lose to hyvaa, and hyvaa's ZvT is better than Saint's.
What's likely in the Final set is hyvaa and Iris, though Saint and Iris is possible, both of which have already been covered above. This group doesn't have many likely upsets as I see it, but if Iris' weak play continues, it is likely that the better of the two mediocre Zergs (hyvaa) will take a spot here. I don't think the maps will be particularly helpful overall to the point of getting one of the Zergs out of the group (Zergs are 3-13 combined against Terran on these maps, and although they are quite young the stats certainly don't look like they'll serve as an advantage) but then again, this is Starcraft, and the unexpected has a tendency of happening.
Group D
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Winner's < Fighting Spirit >
Loser's < Fighting Spirit >
Final < Match Point >
I expect Crazy-Hydra to take a look around himself on the stage and ask himself how he got there. He's played fewer than 20 recorded games, and he's been paired against Jaedong. Now, Jaedong's ZvZ has been rather bad of late, in fact, very bad of late, but I don't think that's enough to stop him against Crazy-Hydra. Still, I have a nagging feeling that Jaedong's bad luck is going to continue. He is playing in a group against 2 Zergs, which normally couldn't be a better draw for him, but he's looked less than dominant since his OSL victory. Still, I think I'd look more the fool if I picked against Jaedong, even with everything considered, and I don't think I'd let myself either. Jaedong should take this set.
I want to make something very clear here in the second set. I want to let it be known that Stats has no chance here. None. Zip. Nada. Zero. Nulla. Stats has had some good games, I know, I've seen them, but this is July. Every time I've bet against July in ZvP he's absolutely stomped the competition. He's 30-9 in his last 39, and he's so dominant in the matchup that I would advise Stats to 'ppp' into the chat to save himself the embarrassment (which is nothing compared to my own embarrassment should Stats in fact win, I might add) of losing this game. July did lose a game to Pure, but he redeemed himself, so I'm extending this analysis thusly: I am predicting a Stats-July rematch in the final match, so even if July loses here, he'll win the final match just like he did against Pure. Stats may have a chance in this game, but he won't get out of the group if the last thing between him and victory is July.
July and Jaedong, in a perfect world, meet in the Winner's game. This is an intriguing game because both are underperforming in ZvZ. July has never had a knack for the matchup, and to see his already middling ZvZ cool off is a sign, I think, of his aging. Jaedong's decline, on the other hand, is somewhat inexplicable, despite the various explanations I've heard about parity of technique and transparency of tactics, and while I buy them, I still think most of it is mental on Jaedong's part. And it's not a broken or shattered confidence that's spurred the losses; it is, I am convinced, overconfidence. July could take this, it's certainly possible, but I still think Jaedong has it all together when it really counts, and July, at least with his ZvZ, doesn't. A month ago this wouldn't have even been a question. Let's see if it stays that way.
Crazy-Hydra and Stats will likely find themselves at the bottom in the Loser's game. I honestly had no idea about how these two would match up, even with their meeting in the preseason match, but thankfully the TLPD provided some insight. Turns out these two have met 5 times, and of those five, Crazy-Hydra's only victory was in the preseason match. In this case, I am more confident in the overall record than how recent the games were. I have seen Stats rise to the occasion before, a little of that KT flair and inconsistency, which I think gives him an edge against his opponent. The question here is really who decides to show up to play, and my guess is that the force will be with Stats because I have hardly any confidence in Crazy-Hydra's ZvP.
In the Final should be Stats and July again. I think I made myself pretty clear about this matchup above. Stats may make it past July once, but he won't twice. July is too good, and Stats too inconsistent. I know my picks have been very safe, but these groups legitimately look like they will favor the favorites. Despite only getting one Protoss in his group, fortune will smile on July and deliver Stats for his advancement.
Group F
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Winner's < Odd-Eye >
Loser's < Odd-Eye >
Final < Match Point >
Now, starting with the first game, as far as my knowledge of the game goes, PvP is probably my weakest matchup, but I know enough to say this: Bisu is good at it, and GuemChi isn't. GuemChi came roaring into this season very hot; he looked like a danger to make some upsets and have the run that might affirm his career, but alas, the magic is gone. Where'd it go? Not to Bisu, that's for sure, but who needs magic when you have skill? Bisu has been inconsistent (surprise, surprise!) but one place where he has been solid, in fact, where he's been most solid, has been his PvP. I don't anticipate a whole lot of trouble for him here, barring some unpredictable inspiration on the part of GuemChi or a wrist injury on the part of Bisu.
The pairing of Bogus and sAviOr makes me sad. I am loath to pick against sAviOr. He is the guy who got me into Starcraft, and this one is especially hurtful because we all want to see sAviOr/Bisu. But here's the truth: even though Bogus' TvZ isn't great, he beat sAviOr in the OSL prelims. He has occasionally very good TvZ, and sAviOr's ZvT is the matchup that has suffered most in his decline. The thing I think that could pull sAviOr through is the chance to play Bisu again. If sAviOr comes in motivated, ready to play and with a good plan, he could get past Bogus. But I think that since Bogus owns the head-to-head advantage, he should have the edge in this one. I know I've put my eggs in Bogus' bucket too many times and been disappointed, but sAviOr's ZvT has not accomplished anything greater than Bogus excepting UpMaGiC for some time. Bogus should take this game, but sAviOr still has a chance.
Bisu and Bogus, then, should meet in the Winner's game. And if they do, Bogus will get steamrolled. There really isn't much more to discuss than that. Although Bogus has shown that he can play good TvZ, the same is not true of his TvP. Bisu's PvT is S class, and Bogus will fight bravely, perhaps make it closer than all of us think, but this spot will go to Bisu.
sAviOr and GuemChi will end up in the Loser's match, and once again, I don't have much confidence in GuemChi, whose PvZ is worse than his PvP. On the other hand, sAviOr's ZvP is still competitive. GuemChi has fallen quite far since his form during the offlines and early season, and sAviOr has remained at about the same level, so the edge even in present form goes to sAviOr, as well as the matchup. I have more faith in the influence of those two factors than in a strong game coming from GuemChi and challenging sAviOr. While I readily admit that it is possible, I think even a strong game from GuemChi won't be enough to cut it. Also consider that sAviOr beat GuemChi in the survivor tournament, and there shouldn't be much of a question that a repeat will be on hand.
If everything goes as I have laid it out, and that's a big assumption, a Bogus-sAviOr rematch will happen in the final game. Now, I've been thinking about my comments from above and I realize that maybe I have overestimated Bogus. I don't think I've overestimated him so much that it will change the outcome of that game, but when I consider also sAviOr's historic success in the MSL, and that perhaps I have misjudged his improvement in the past couple weeks, I think that sAviOr might have it all together to take this game. It won't be easy, and Match Point will be no friend to sAviOr, but I think we can expect a little flair from sAviOr, a little sparkle in the way he used to shine. I don't have much in the way of numbers or facts or perhaps even sound analysis to back up my pick. Perhaps it's guilt that I've betrayed my champion, and that when it comes down to him, I'll always come back, but I think sAviOr will win this game.
So that's that. Recaps, predictions, and anticipation. The NATE MSL is going to come into its own this week, and hopefully bringing us some sAviOr/Bisu while it's at it. So tune in, and follow along to see if the favorites prevail, or if we have a round of upsets coming on the road to the Grand Final!