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Haunted Mafia - Page 80

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spydR
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Australia243 Posts
October 14 2010 10:21 GMT
#1581
Bedtime: Juicy discussion plz, no off topic crap that makes my 20 page readathon more time consuming.

When I get off work tomorrow, I'll be sinking into some more clues and posts. gl
#1 Eric Marienthal fanboy. Dropped engineering for this >.<
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 14 2010 10:42 GMT
#1582
I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.

Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.

Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.

Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.

If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?

As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.

As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
Hittegods
Profile Joined April 2007
Stockholm4640 Posts
October 14 2010 11:56 GMT
#1583
On October 14 2010 18:38 CubEdIn wrote:
I want to vote for BM's replacement, but I can't help thinking it's sort-of unfair.

Why? Well, if you read the mafia ban list thread, you'll see that:

1. BM threatened to reveal ALL his PMs
2. DrH was "shocked" about him doing this.

Now, of course, I know that DrH could be shocked because BM is a veteran, and he shouldn't have acted like that, sure, but also, he could have been surprised because revealing his PMs would ruin the game.

And it would only ruin the game if he were M/V, and he got a lot of PMs from the other team members.
Also, BM claimed to have >70 PMs, why would a townie have so many PMs?

I don't know. I'd like NOT to vote for him, for the sake of the "good-game-spirit", but in my head, I'm 90% sure he is M/V.

He messaged more or less everyone who posted about who their top suspects were. This would no doubt generate a lot of messages.
This neo violence, pure self defiance
AirbladeOrange
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States2573 Posts
October 14 2010 11:57 GMT
#1584
I generally agree with KhrisKruel. Some people are talking about what the blue action people should do and trying to manipulate them into playing the game their way. Even if KhrisKruel is a mafia or vampire trying to manipulate the town more, it is still pretty good advice.
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
October 14 2010 12:25 GMT
#1585
On October 14 2010 19:42 KhrisKruel wrote:
I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.

Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.

Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.

Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.

If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?

As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.

As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly.


This is highly cynical and I'm going to argue that it is just a stupid idea entirely.

There needs to be structure in this game. It is inherently hard to build that town structure in this game because you can't trust ANYONE. However, that does not mean everyone should keep secrets. PMs should be had between people, and trust should be -tried- to be gained. If everyone just does their own thing, it will be the most chaotic game ever.

If you honestly suspect people just for suggesting blue actions, then you would already know that I was theorycrafting what blues could do for Night 1 (unless everyone just ignores my posts, in which case *sadface*). If you are going to suspect me for that, then go ahead, it will be a waste.

Blues shouldn't blindly declare, and certainly shouldn't publicly declare, but that's not to say that there shouldn't be an attempt to make some structure.
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
seRapH
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9756 Posts
October 14 2010 13:28 GMT
#1586
On October 14 2010 19:42 KhrisKruel wrote:
I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.

Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.

Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.

Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.

If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?

As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.

As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly.

Huh, this is the perfect way to play IF YOU WANT SCUM TO WIN. FoS

Why? Well then town is COMPLETELY disorganized, while scum is still perfectly intact. It'll take forever to confirm townies and even longer to confirm reds. You're highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions? Well I'm highly suspicious of you.

Your posts:
On October 14 2010 10:02 KhrisKruel wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

Hey guys sorry I missed out on day 1. I didn't have access to the thread. I'm quite amazed we got a scum on day 1, but then again I'm not used to clue dynamics.

I'm catching up now and I'm on page 13. I thought I'd share this nice gem with you guys that I noticed.

On October 11 2010 15:48 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:
Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it.

LOL. YOU JUST ADMITTED YOU'D BUDDY WHEN MAFIA, AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH MASQ. I DON'T MEAN TO BE FUNNY WITH HALLOWEEN-REFERENCES, BUT THAT WAS REALLY THE NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL


Let me clarify:

NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL


Let me clarify more:

MR VAMPIRE


Let me clarify 3 more times:

VAMPIRE

VAMPIRE

VAMPIRE


I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm looking for vampires AND mafia...anyone have thoughts on this?


An incredibly stupid post that concentrates more on the fact that BM was making a joke than anything else (he mentions the possibility of both mafia AND vampire). I thought I'd let it slide since you weren't pushing that hard, and at least held a sliver of truth.

The other thing you were doing that annoyed me was your claim of having "experience" by telling people how they should play the game when you're clearly wrong.
On October 14 2010 12:24 KhrisKruel wrote:
how someone plays a game is not a reason to vote for them, even if they're annoying. Any green/blue lynches are bad for the town.

Voting for information is stupid too.

Say we have a dumbass greenie who's charismatic and pushes extremely hard for whoever his suspicions first land on, and people actually bandwagon. Way more townies would get lynched. Suppose a dumbass greenie is bored with his role and just reads the threads to make dumb jokes and poke fun at people. Suppose a lot of dumbass greenies are inactive because their role sucks and so they don't want to play, helping to hide scum. Voting for information is stupid? That is retarded, day 1 how the fuck else are you going to get information? You want us to rely on clues, Mr I've-Got-Tons-Of-Mafia-Experience?

The rest of your posts go on attacking Veldril who's already vampire in most people's eyes. Sure, that's safe, even beneficial if you're mafia. You're getting really scummy in my eyes.
boomer hands
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 14 2010 13:55 GMT
#1587
On October 14 2010 21:25 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2010 19:42 KhrisKruel wrote:
I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.

Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.

Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.

Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.

If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?

As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.

As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly.


This is highly cynical and I'm going to argue that it is just a stupid idea entirely.

There needs to be structure in this game. It is inherently hard to build that town structure in this game because you can't trust ANYONE. However, that does not mean everyone should keep secrets. PMs should be had between people, and trust should be -tried- to be gained. If everyone just does their own thing, it will be the most chaotic game ever.

If you honestly suspect people just for suggesting blue actions, then you would already know that I was theorycrafting what blues could do for Night 1 (unless everyone just ignores my posts, in which case *sadface*). If you are going to suspect me for that, then go ahead, it will be a waste.

Blues shouldn't blindly declare, and certainly shouldn't publicly declare, but that's not to say that there shouldn't be an attempt to make some structure.



Yes I suspect you. I Don't trust anyone trying to control blue actions. The town doesn't need structure until late in the game when roles are pretty much confirmed. At that point a mass claim is correct. Early in the game its better just to let blues do what they want.

Besides, who is going to control the structure? Why would anyone trust anyone? If you claim to a mafia, you'll just die the next night.

Any blue claiming to an unknown person has got to be completely retarded. Players that are new to the game might fall for these dumb tactics.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
KhrisKruel
Profile Joined August 2010
United States146 Posts
October 14 2010 14:07 GMT
#1588
On October 14 2010 22:28 seRapH wrote:
Huh, this is the perfect way to play IF YOU WANT SCUM TO WIN. FoS


No, scum influencing blue actions is the way for scum to win.


On October 14 2010 22:28 seRapH wrote:

Why? Well then town is COMPLETELY disorganized, while scum is still perfectly intact. It'll take forever to confirm townies and even longer to confirm reds. You're highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions? Well I'm highly suspicious of you.


Having publicly confirmed townies is not a good thing. They'll just die. Secondly, how do you know that the person you're talking to isn't scum? If a blue privately discloses a role to a scum, and then that role gets confirmed, why would the scum keep that blue around?

There's absolutely no way to confirm someone as a townie through private PM's. There's no way to control blue's actions without letting the scum know. Therefore, best policy is to let the blue's do what they want, and the scum have less information.

This is so weird arguing about this because this is the first game I've ever run across where this was an issue. I thought it was common knowledge not to do this.

On October 14 2010 10:02 KhrisKruel wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

Hey guys sorry I missed out on day 1. I didn't have access to the thread. I'm quite amazed we got a scum on day 1, but then again I'm not used to clue dynamics.

I'm catching up now and I'm on page 13. I thought I'd share this nice gem with you guys that I noticed.

On October 11 2010 15:48 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 15:33 Veldril wrote:
Secondly, I believe that there's old-school player here so we might be able to check their previous post first before making an accusation. Analyzing the old posts in previous games might become useful if you have time to do it.

LOL. YOU JUST ADMITTED YOU'D BUDDY WHEN MAFIA, AND YOU'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH MASQ. I DON'T MEAN TO BE FUNNY WITH HALLOWEEN-REFERENCES, BUT THAT WAS REALLY THE NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL


Let me clarify:

NAIL IN YOUR COFFIN MR VAMPIRE LOL


Let me clarify more:

MR VAMPIRE


Let me clarify 3 more times:

VAMPIRE

VAMPIRE

VAMPIRE


I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm looking for vampires AND mafia...anyone have thoughts on this?



On October 14 2010 22:28 seRapH wrote:
An incredibly stupid post that concentrates more on the fact that BM was making a joke than anything else (he mentions the possibility of both mafia AND vampire). I thought I'd let it slide since you weren't pushing that hard, and at least held a sliver of truth.

The other thing you were doing that annoyed me was your claim of having "experience" by telling people how they should play the game when you're clearly wrong.


He wasn't making a joke, he said vampires. He mentioned it multiple times throughout his posts. He called Veldril a vampire multiple times and never mentioned the possibility of him being mafia. This is a slip. BM is almost certainly a mafia because of this.

I like how you say I'm annoying for telling others how to play the game, yet you're arguing with me how to play the game. Hypocratic much? And I'm not wrong. Blues need to do what they want to do and shouldn't be influenced by anyone else but themselves. It's suspicious to try and control blue actions.

On October 14 2010 22:28 seRapH wrote:

Show nested quote +
On October 14 2010 12:24 KhrisKruel wrote:
how someone plays a game is not a reason to vote for them, even if they're annoying. Any green/blue lynches are bad for the town.

Voting for information is stupid too.

Say we have a dumbass greenie who's charismatic and pushes extremely hard for whoever his suspicions first land on, and people actually bandwagon. Way more townies would get lynched. Suppose a dumbass greenie is bored with his role and just reads the threads to make dumb jokes and poke fun at people. Suppose a lot of dumbass greenies are inactive because their role sucks and so they don't want to play, helping to hide scum. Voting for information is stupid? That is retarded, day 1 how the fuck else are you going to get information? You want us to rely on clues, Mr I've-Got-Tons-Of-Mafia-Experience?

The rest of your posts go on attacking Veldril who's already vampire in most people's eyes. Sure, that's safe, even beneficial if you're mafia. You're getting really scummy in my eyes.


Dumbass greens need to be exposed for what they are...dumbass greens. Lynching a townie is always detrimental to the town, period.

All those scenarios though the "green" person would be scummy, and would get lynched for being scummy, not because people want information.

As for how to lynch day 1, connections and clues and people using logic fallacies are the way to lynch people.

Veldril actively defended masq when there was no reason to. Masq flipped vampire. Easy connection.
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~Buddha
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
October 14 2010 14:30 GMT
#1589
On October 14 2010 22:55 KhrisKruel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2010 21:25 jcarlsoniv wrote:
On October 14 2010 19:42 KhrisKruel wrote:
I want to put my two cents in about blue roles.

Firstly, if you have a blue role, for the love of god don't claim unless you have a good reason. Don't even hint at them. You are giving the scum more information to easily make their nightkills.

Secondly, don't discuss what blue roles need to do. NB did this during day 1, and he was the mafia godfather. Blue roles will do what blue roles do, and they will give us information when they want us to.

Thirdly, don't claim to people in PM's. Don't listen to them when they say others have already claimed. You have no idea if they are townie or not, and knowing who you are you will die and the town will lose a blue role.

If that person tries to gain your trust by showing you a PM of them from DrH, they're cheating. They can tell you any role they have. All role PMs are public. Also, we were given two role pms, one of which has been changed. How do you know he isn't showing you the one given before?

As a rule, people discussing blue actions and asking people to PM them are never trustworthy. I hope the newbies to mafia don't fall into this. If you are a blue role, do what you think is best and don't listen to what anyone else tells you. Don't play WIFOM games of "well if we talk abou tit, then it won't happen." Just do what you believe is best. Don't worry about failing. Failing would be letting the mafia influence your night action for their benefit.

As a rule I'm highly suspicious of anyone discussing blue actions publicly.


This is highly cynical and I'm going to argue that it is just a stupid idea entirely.

There needs to be structure in this game. It is inherently hard to build that town structure in this game because you can't trust ANYONE. However, that does not mean everyone should keep secrets. PMs should be had between people, and trust should be -tried- to be gained. If everyone just does their own thing, it will be the most chaotic game ever.

If you honestly suspect people just for suggesting blue actions, then you would already know that I was theorycrafting what blues could do for Night 1 (unless everyone just ignores my posts, in which case *sadface*). If you are going to suspect me for that, then go ahead, it will be a waste.

Blues shouldn't blindly declare, and certainly shouldn't publicly declare, but that's not to say that there shouldn't be an attempt to make some structure.



Yes I suspect you. I Don't trust anyone trying to control blue actions. The town doesn't need structure until late in the game when roles are pretty much confirmed. At that point a mass claim is correct. Early in the game its better just to let blues do what they want.

Besides, who is going to control the structure? Why would anyone trust anyone? If you claim to a mafia, you'll just die the next night.

Any blue claiming to an unknown person has got to be completely retarded. Players that are new to the game might fall for these dumb tactics.


I have not been trying to control the blues. I have merely made suggestions about possible targets, and put in my opinions of where blues could go.

I never said that I was the person to trust. If people were to claim to me, they would have my trust, but there is no way for anyone to know that unless I am role checked. I am not TRYING to control the blues, I am only saying that having no structure is futile.

The Mafia/Vampire win conditions are to kill all of the enemy faction. They do not win by killing townies. Townies will die, sure. But us dying won't get the M/V any closer to a win. The mafia and vampires are already structured, they know their allies and who they can target. The town is set back extremely by not knowing anything. We are fortunate that we have had this many scum die thus far, but that does not mean we can sit on our asses and hope that a chaotic bumblefuck of townies will win in the end. Even if, as you claim, a structure is not needed until late game, it is difficult to set one up at the blink of an eye. We need to start now.
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
Veldril
Profile Joined August 2010
Thailand1817 Posts
October 14 2010 14:55 GMT
#1590
Whether I'm a vampire or not is not a problem right now. The issue is that by lynching me today, Mafias would gain advantages over Town and Vampire.

If I flip green, they use previous vote to trace back who is vampire. Even if they miss on night 2, there would still have suspects list that could be used later to fish out vampire. It could also put a townie who vote for me on day 1 in danger.

If I flip blue, well... I think I don't have to explain how this would affect town.

If I flip vampire, they gain a lot of advantage as I explained in the previous post.

Right now, town's best interest should be thinning down the number of mafias first. And when vampire and mafia number are approximately equal, then town can choose the course of action at that point, be it lynching me, other known/suspected vampires or known/suspected mafia.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now let me presented a possible Mafia player that we should vote for today: Yogy

The reasons that we should lynch this person are:

1. He voted Masq without posting anything before. If he's Mafia, then he would know that Masq is not on his team. Voting Masq, whom the clue implied to be a killer, would be the best vote to get rid of a vampire.

The date and time he voted Masq is

On October 11 2010 16:37 Yogy wrote:
Vote Masq

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6559376

2. Later, he came up with this post:

On October 13 2010 01:41 Yogy wrote:
I've been pretty inactive in posting I confess, new to this and trying to get the hang of it. No one has been telling me what to do or who to vote to lynch, I've come to that decision myself.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=6572368

Why would someone tell that there's no one telling him what to do or vote if he acted independently? If he indeed acted independently, he should have a reason why he voted for Masq, may it be he is so sure about the clue or else. Moreover, he posted this after someone compile the number of posts each player made. For me, it is very suspicious.

3. He is always inactive. Except the post I quote above, he make no other posts at all. By voting him right now would force him to be more active and we could get more information out of him that would benefit town.

Therefore, with these three reasons above, I placed my vote on Yogy.
Without love, we can't see anything. Without love, the truth can't be seen. - Umineko no Naku Koro Ni
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12968 Posts
October 14 2010 15:15 GMT
#1591
Since I'm not much of a clue analyzer an don't think they can be very reliable due to clues oftentimes being accidental or even a red herring, I'm going to focus on behavior analysis. CubEdIn is up first. I took a gist from his posts because a lot of them are in the same spirit.
+ Show Spoiler +
On October 11 2010 14:57 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 11 2010 14:54 aztrorisk wrote:
I think ShmotZ is a longer shot than Masq. Sure, it is suggestive, but Masq fits it a bit better. There are also a couple other people who have shadowy figures as their picture.


LOL, a pear indicates a pyscho?!?!? I been looking at other people profile and his is the only one that has a shadowy figure (without a sword and looks immune to bullets) and his picture looks like it can only strangle.



..."carved like a Jack O' Lantern"
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Look at this. Now look at his pear. Then back to this. No connection?

This is the trend of his first posts. Mostly just humoring people though he also tried to get some useful analysis going on the first day post.

On October 11 2010 22:29 CubEdIn wrote:
Right. I woke up from my morning 8-hour nap.

Now, I've read through the pages but it seemed to go downhill rather than closing in on suspects.
I realize that this is hard to do, especially on day 1, but we should be very methodical about this.

What we have so far are clues, activity level, reaction to being voted, and that's about it.
Now, the jack-o-lantern clue just MAY be too obvious, but I'm not convinced I should change my vote yet. If that wasn't a clue then I don't know what was. Too obvious? Maybe. But what else could it mean? I would like to hear a second suspect that would fit into that profile. I failed to find any.

Also, at first I thought that votes against coagulation were silly, but after seeing how much he fretted about it, I'm not so sure. I would probably be displeased as well, and certainly wouldn't want to get lynched in day1, but he does seem rather suspicious.

Come on people, time is slowing running out, let's come up with some solid arguments.

Seems to try to take the role of town leader. The things he says are useful, but quite obvious for the most part. It could definitely help the new people though. Raises doubt about Coagulation whom seems to be posting a lot.

On October 12 2010 03:09 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 02:12 Veldril wrote:
On October 12 2010 02:02 Flicky wrote:
My general opinion on the Whole Masq thing is that he's not doing a great job of defending himself despite it only being day 1.

While it's possible it's "too obvious" to some, as soon as I realised it can't have been a Jack O'Lantern framing, the more it seems that's the only lead.

Seems likely to me and that a possible miss-lynch wouldn't be too much of an issue.


After spending time reading rules, I do agree that miss-lynch on the first day is not a big issue. We have 61 players here, with 22 reds. That we have 39 greens/blues. Considering that mafias and vampires each can kill up to 3 people (or have to kill three people I'm not sure, might need clarification on this), we can say that on the first day plus first night, there will be up to 7 people dead. If all dead are hit at townie, then townie will have 32 player left. And worst case would be 7 of either vampire or mafia are killed (only single side), which I believe is very unlikely.


Not that it's very relevant, but you couldn't get 7 kills on vampire or mafia since they know who they are and would not use their 3 kills on their own team. So tops would be 4 kills on one side and 3 kills on the other, which wouldn't be TOO bad. It would make the game fairly interesting, since all sides gain from killing the other sides, so it would still be fairly even in terms of Mafia vs Vampires, but the Townies would have the advantage.

As for masq, as I said in the beginning, it may not be the smartest thing to go on with such an obvious clue, but then again what other options do we have?
Really, no other clues come close to this in my opinion. If we find someone who's more likely, then I'd gladly change my vote.

Weakly supports the masq bandwagon, though I think from this information we can gather that he most likely is not a vampire, given that masq turned out to be one and the bandwagon wasn't as big as to make it inevitable to stop yet.

On October 12 2010 03:37 CubEdIn wrote:
^ Interesting points off NB.

I also noticed that jodogohoo changed votes constantly, was wondering why that is, I didn't really think about the fact that it's ok to go with the flow if you know who NOT to vote for, but if that's the case, it means that everyone he voted for are not from his 'family' (assuming he's either M or V), which brings us back to square one, sort-of.
It could also mean that, if all NB saying proves to be true, if Veldril and Masq are in the same team, then jodogohoo is on the other (example: if vel and masq are mafia, jodogohoo is vamp).

Basically, as time progresses, I think I'll change my vote not to who I think is more likely to be Mafia or Vampire, but to whom seems to "drag us down" the most. Someone who constantly changes his mind with every few posts may not be so helpful later on.

...I'm still not changing my vote though, not yet.

Seems to be agreeing with NB. If he's red, he's likely to be mafia rather than vampire. Calls out jodogohoo for consistently changing his opinion and calls this negatory to the town, which is true. Confusion is always bad. I'm not too sure about the whole voting for who's dragging us down the most instead of Mafia or Vampire though.

On October 12 2010 03:43 CubEdIn wrote:
I don't agree with the "we won't be able to gather enough votes on Veldril" thing.

It only takes 3 people to change their vote to tip the scales in Veldril's favor. And those who voted for Masq are probably suspicious of Veldril now as well.

Seems to still be suspicious of Veldril, making it likelier that if Veldril is red, he's a vampire.

On October 12 2010 08:48 CubEdIn wrote:
After a lot of thinking, offline, I decided I will not change my vote from Masq.
This is why: (and most of this post is directed at Bill Murray, for he is the one that thinks lynching Veldril is better for now)
I don't see any reason in killing Veldril first. For Masq:
Scenario A: Masq IS Mafia/Vamp. The next day, Veldril dies anyway, since he was so quick to defend him. People won't pay attention to what he says in Day 2 anyway, since we will be almost certain he needs to be lynched. Correct?
Scenario B: Masq IS NOT Mafia/Vamp. Then Veldril was defending him for nothing, or just to cause confusion, or just because he's being a bit of a newbie. Faith of Veldril is to be determined in Day 2.
For Veldril
Scenario A: We kill Veldril, he is Mafia/Vamp. Masq will probably die as well, but we still can't be 100% sure he is also M/V. Maybe Veldril was just trying to cause chaos
Scenario B: We kill Veldril, he is not M/V. Everyone is confused, Masq will probably not be killed, we accomplished nothing.

So I don't see why going for Veldril first is better, since it would not give us any info about Masq. Instead, if Masq is M/V and we lynch him, we will know (90% sure) that Veldril is also M/V.
To me, if we go for Veldril first, and he is M/V, the chances of him just trying to stir stuff up are pretty high, so I'd only be 75% sure that Masq is also M/V

So, as a bottom line, I think that going for Masq will bring more clarity to me than going for Veldril. This is somewhat related to me relying on the clues a bit too much. I understand they are not damning, but I just can't let something this huge slide.

If I'm missing a reason why Veldril should be killed first, feel free to enlighten me.

I'm not sure for his logic why Veldril would have to be M/V if Masq is, but not the other way around. I feel the link is equally strong either way so I'm not convinced by this one at all. However, he did get a vampire lynched this way so we can exclude CubE from being a possible vampire.

On October 12 2010 11:27 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 11:15 aztrorisk wrote:
Can you idiots stop trying to make a town circle? There's 61 people. It's the first day. There's 22 non-townies.

Stop confusing yourselves and focus on the only matter at hand: Veldril or Masq.


Ok, I will not say anything else if NOBODY and that means NOBODY replies to this remark. My final remark about the jack-o-latern in an attempt to not let my upcoming death go to waste.

The ghost whoever you are. You have a decision that could greatly disadvantage or help the town. If you make the wrong decision, I assure you that you will regret it, dearly. I want you to make your decision to save me base on these to factors:

1. does the mafia think that your going to save me that they are willing to send a brute?
2. does the mafia think that your not coming that they will send a mere killer.

please consider these two factors and hopefully, based on the tone of everyone, you'll be able to find the right answer.



I'm not replying to your remark, but to you in general.

I don't understand why you would go and do this, unless you're Frankie and want the Vamps to waste brute, OR unless you're a mafia/vamp who is planning to rid the town of their ghost by sacrificing themselves.

Either of these scenarios is more plausible than you being the JoL and deciding to stand up and screw yourself for no apparent good reason.

If you are, indeed, the JoL, I believe it was a poor decision, and the town probably won't suffer much of a loss by not having you around.

Just my 2 cents.

Also, I'm quite seriously considering lynching you.

Calls out aztro for being detrimental to town by him asking for protection despite not being very useful to town. This post solidifies CubE as being a townie to me.

On October 12 2010 11:37 CubEdIn wrote:
So, back to the question at hand:

1. We kill Masq.
- he was M/V then we know for sure if Veldril is M/V, we molest him too, end of story
- he was not M/V, then Veldril was just being overly enthusiastic, or trying to stir stuff up, Veldril chances of survival: 50/50

2. We kill Veldril.
- he was M/V then we know that Masq ---> MIGHT <--- also be M/V, we will prolly kill him too
- he was not M/V, everyone is confused, Masq might survive later in the game.

To me, it seems that I will get a more clear view of the game by killing Masq. Almost 24h in, still not changing my vote. Time for sleep. XoXo.

I really don't see why Veldril would have to be a vamp too just because Masq is one when if it turns out Masq isn't one he's just an overzealous townie? This logic seems very backwards to me. Same goes for the case if he kills Veldril. Using the same logic, Veldril would not vehemently support someone unless he was absolutely sure of his alignment, so Masq would be criminalized by a possible vamp flip as well.

On October 12 2010 22:42 CubEdIn wrote:
I don't get this bandwaggoning that's going on.

WHY is Veldril more important than Masq? We are only voting for him BECAUSE he tried to defend Masq, so if we're voting for him, then we just assume that Masq is also M/V. Correct?

So why not be methodical about it, and start with Masq? If he proves to be a Mafia/Vamp, then we'll know for sure that so is Veldril. If not, then our whole premise was wrong and we should rethink our steps.

How is this an issue? WHY VELDRIL FIRST?

I don't get the reasoning here.

Seems very passionate about getting Masq offed.

On October 13 2010 08:58 CubEdIn wrote:
So he might be a veteran but not very good at being sneaky.

I suggest we trust DrH that he wouldn't let things like 2 accounts per player slide, and just play the game.

Also, I understand why people would prefer Veldril dead as well, not going to hang anyone for that, but I just don't see it as clear as I see masq. It might be my noobness to the game smudging my vision, but hey, at least I'll be proven wrong and know not to judge people by clues and the fact that they're acting fishy as heck.

In general mafia games with just one team, this is generally a very scummish thing to say as you already know he won't be mafia, so you have your excuse ready. In this game with three teams however it doesn't ring true as much, and this makes me more hesitant to call CubE out on just this.

On October 13 2010 18:21 CubEdIn wrote:
Just woke up.

And FUCK YEAH. I got a correct lynch in the first day of my first game. Too bad all this shit-talking took away my glory.

So, I'm gonna lay down and be quiet(er) until day 2 arrives. No point in all this speculation without new clues, and the whole BM spamming threw this thread way off track.

Only question is: should we lynch Veldril as well? I'm really 50-50 on that decision. My initial feeling was that Masq is M/V and Veldril is a bit of a newbie who was over-zealous with his opinion, and got the public's attention.
Now do I go with that and try to broaden my horizons, or do I just say "fuck it" and vote for Veldril? Decisions decisions.

Pushed his lynch of Masq really hard in day one, but now he's questioning a Veldril lynch after Masq turned up red even though he said he wanted to immediately after day 1? This is very suspicious to me and the most criminalizing post I have found of CubE.

On October 13 2010 23:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Tell me about it. Next time, use underscores or dots, and preview posts.

But as a general idea, I understand what you mean.
That's why I think we need to wait till day 2 to see who gets killed, we can just go from there with clues, whoever is left, etc.

Continues to want to wait for the day post which to me is not a good idea since you can get a ton of good behavior analysis done in the night and you may be dead before the next day. Could just be a newbie mistake though.

On October 14 2010 18:38 CubEdIn wrote:
I want to vote for BM's replacement, but I can't help thinking it's sort-of unfair.

Why? Well, if you read the mafia ban list thread, you'll see that:

1. BM threatened to reveal ALL his PMs
2. DrH was "shocked" about him doing this.

Now, of course, I know that DrH could be shocked because BM is a veteran, and he shouldn't have acted like that, sure, but also, he could have been surprised because revealing his PMs would ruin the game.

And it would only ruin the game if he were M/V, and he got a lot of PMs from the other team members.
Also, BM claimed to have >70 PMs, why would a townie have so many PMs?

I don't know. I'd like NOT to vote for him, for the sake of the "good-game-spirit", but in my head, I'm 90% sure he is M/V.

This is just drawing straws. BM PMs everyone during every game to try and get as much info out like a lunatic, which is something he does in every game. For BM, this is nothing out of the ordinary and I wouldn't see it as a scum tell. Definitely far from enough to say 90% M/V.
In conclusion: CubE has a very reasonable chance of being Mafia, and near 0% chance of being Vampire. Townie is most likely, but he is definitely not cleared from charges yet.
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
October 14 2010 15:15 GMT
#1592
I'm suspicious of why did Heaven On Earth slip away from everyone's radar.

I understand that focus is lost easily in this game, as it has been proven over and over again, but come on!
I'm not making accusations just yet, as I didn't really have time to read the entire thread (shit moves fast yo!), but as soon as I'm done reading the clues 100 times more and checking everyone's profile, I'll come up with a vote.

Yes, I'm a sucker for clues. So far it worked 100% of the times I voted based on clues! (1/1)
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
October 14 2010 15:26 GMT
#1593
On October 14 2010 20:56 Hittegods wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2010 18:38 CubEdIn wrote:
I want to vote for BM's replacement, but I can't help thinking it's sort-of unfair.

Why? Well, if you read the mafia ban list thread, you'll see that:

1. BM threatened to reveal ALL his PMs
2. DrH was "shocked" about him doing this.

Now, of course, I know that DrH could be shocked because BM is a veteran, and he shouldn't have acted like that, sure, but also, he could have been surprised because revealing his PMs would ruin the game.

And it would only ruin the game if he were M/V, and he got a lot of PMs from the other team members.
Also, BM claimed to have >70 PMs, why would a townie have so many PMs?

I don't know. I'd like NOT to vote for him, for the sake of the "good-game-spirit", but in my head, I'm 90% sure he is M/V.

He messaged more or less everyone who posted about who their top suspects were. This would no doubt generate a lot of messages.


Yes, it -somewhat- explains the number of messages, but then again, it's the kind of thing a red would do. Pick-up clues.
Also, the thing that urges me on is DrH's reaction to BM's threat. It's not damning, but it's sure suspicious. I explained why. He's not off my radar.

And thirdly, does't it strike you as odd that all but one kills were on target?
I mean sure, M/V have more information, but this was A LOT of information. Basically, only one or two of the kills tonight even came up in our suspects list, how did the others know who to go for?
I'm intrigued.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
seRapH
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9756 Posts
October 14 2010 15:30 GMT
#1594
On October 15 2010 00:26 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2010 20:56 Hittegods wrote:
On October 14 2010 18:38 CubEdIn wrote:
I want to vote for BM's replacement, but I can't help thinking it's sort-of unfair.

Why? Well, if you read the mafia ban list thread, you'll see that:

1. BM threatened to reveal ALL his PMs
2. DrH was "shocked" about him doing this.

Now, of course, I know that DrH could be shocked because BM is a veteran, and he shouldn't have acted like that, sure, but also, he could have been surprised because revealing his PMs would ruin the game.

And it would only ruin the game if he were M/V, and he got a lot of PMs from the other team members.
Also, BM claimed to have >70 PMs, why would a townie have so many PMs?

I don't know. I'd like NOT to vote for him, for the sake of the "good-game-spirit", but in my head, I'm 90% sure he is M/V.

He messaged more or less everyone who posted about who their top suspects were. This would no doubt generate a lot of messages.


Yes, it -somewhat- explains the number of messages, but then again, it's the kind of thing a red would do. Pick-up clues.
Also, the thing that urges me on is DrH's reaction to BM's threat. It's not damning, but it's sure suspicious. I explained why. He's not off my radar.

And thirdly, does't it strike you as odd that all but one kills were on target?
I mean sure, M/V have more information, but this was A LOT of information. Basically, only one or two of the kills tonight even came up in our suspects list, how did the others know who to go for?
I'm intrigued.

The high accuracy rate surprises me too. Either I suck more at this game than I thought or something big is happening in PM land.

I doubt the mafia was looking to kill vamp brute, or vamps looked for GF, and both sides just got lucky. All in all its still really really surprising.
boomer hands
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
October 14 2010 15:40 GMT
#1595
On October 15 2010 00:30 seRapH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2010 00:26 CubEdIn wrote:
On October 14 2010 20:56 Hittegods wrote:
On October 14 2010 18:38 CubEdIn wrote:
I want to vote for BM's replacement, but I can't help thinking it's sort-of unfair.

Why? Well, if you read the mafia ban list thread, you'll see that:

1. BM threatened to reveal ALL his PMs
2. DrH was "shocked" about him doing this.

Now, of course, I know that DrH could be shocked because BM is a veteran, and he shouldn't have acted like that, sure, but also, he could have been surprised because revealing his PMs would ruin the game.

And it would only ruin the game if he were M/V, and he got a lot of PMs from the other team members.
Also, BM claimed to have >70 PMs, why would a townie have so many PMs?

I don't know. I'd like NOT to vote for him, for the sake of the "good-game-spirit", but in my head, I'm 90% sure he is M/V.

He messaged more or less everyone who posted about who their top suspects were. This would no doubt generate a lot of messages.


Yes, it -somewhat- explains the number of messages, but then again, it's the kind of thing a red would do. Pick-up clues.
Also, the thing that urges me on is DrH's reaction to BM's threat. It's not damning, but it's sure suspicious. I explained why. He's not off my radar.

And thirdly, does't it strike you as odd that all but one kills were on target?
I mean sure, M/V have more information, but this was A LOT of information. Basically, only one or two of the kills tonight even came up in our suspects list, how did the others know who to go for?
I'm intrigued.

The high accuracy rate surprises me too. Either I suck more at this game than I thought or something big is happening in PM land.

I doubt the mafia was looking to kill vamp brute, or vamps looked for GF, and both sides just got lucky. All in all its still really really surprising.


Or both, haha... =P

It is tough to fathom how BM had so many PMs, but judging from the amount of people who posted their PMs with him, I suppose it is possible. If he PMd everyone in the game, he most likely got at least one response. Most of these probably evolved into at least small conversations, so it is feasible. Regardless, it doesn't make me not-suspicious (god these double negatives are killing me).
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
October 14 2010 15:41 GMT
#1596
A thing to think about - normally in mafia games if you get saved by a ghost, it's in your best interest to claim ASAP and say "I took a hit last night". Same deal for veterans (Frankensteins in this case).

In this game, when Frankensteins are hit, they should claim. However, it's a very bad idea to assume that someone who gets ghost-protted is automatically town. If anything, anyone who claims they took a hit but got protected warrants a ton of investigation, because mafia and vampires aren't trying to kill town - they're trying to kill each other. Thus, instead of trying to bluesnipe, they're trying to redsnipe.

Just something to think about. I don't think anyone has claimed yet, but it's something y'all should remember.

Now, onto today's lynch... right now I'm a fan of lynching the chainsaw-defending Veldril, for two reasons:

1: I really can't see any logical explanation for his defense of Masq other than "vampire buddy who didn't know what bussing was"

2: We drop a vampire today, we lower their KP to two, which means one less death per night.

After today, though, we really should be focusing on hunting down mafia, to bring the numbers back to equal. As town, we're trying to maintain balance between the two scum factions - we don't want mafia to get too much of an upper hand here.
SUNSFANNED
Flicky
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
England2659 Posts
October 14 2010 15:50 GMT
#1597
Convenience post for finding my place in the thread.
Liquipedia"I was seriously looking for a black guy" - MrHoon
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
October 14 2010 16:14 GMT
#1598
As far as I can tell, and this is maybe the most damning evidence against him there is, Veldril has done absolutely zero to actually defend himself. All that he has done, or at least, all he is doing now is attempting to misdirect towards other people.

I can't think of anything more foolish than letting a red get away when he's square in our crosshairs. And please, please don't believe his BS about how it's bad for us if he turns up vampire. Reducing their KP is huge so early in the game. Does it give the mafia an advantage? Yes -- over the vampires. Less people turning up dead isn't going to hurt the town.
whole lies with a half smile
Glasse
Profile Joined July 2010
Canada1237 Posts
October 14 2010 16:19 GMT
#1599
I just want to say one thing about BM's pms. Yes, drh did not want them revealed but that doesnt mean he is red or not. Just the fact that he could reveal any information after being dead is enough to make someone panic or w/e. You have to understand him, getting his game ruined would suck.

note: this was a post to clarify those things, i still think hes a bad guy but for the other reasons, this one should not be considered.
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
October 14 2010 16:37 GMT
#1600
Don't forget that the vamps might have more than one brute.
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