EPTHaunted Mafia - Page 82
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Nemesis
Canada2568 Posts
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Nemesis
Canada2568 Posts
On October 15 2010 00:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Since I'm not much of a clue analyzer an don't think they can be very reliable due to clues oftentimes being accidental or even a red herring, I'm going to focus on behavior analysis. CubEdIn is up first. I took a gist from his posts because a lot of them are in the same spirit. Seems to be agreeing with NB. If he's red, he's likely to be mafia rather than vampire. Calls out jodogohoo for consistently changing his opinion and calls this negatory to the town, which is true. Confusion is always bad. I'm not too sure about the whole voting for who's dragging us down the most instead of Mafia or Vampire though. I am highly suspicious of you after this post. You seem to be nitpicking at Cube's post, but leaving out post which contradicts what you are trying to convey to everyone. He seems to have left out this post purposely. On October 13 2010 07:08 CubEdIn wrote: Yes, I thought about that, but it's a bit of a long shot. I don't think you'll convince many people to vote for Masq on day 2 if Veldril is green. Especially if he's Count/GF and he fakes his role for detective, he might live for the rest of the game. Instead, given Veldril's posts, he would still be suspected even if Masq turns out to be green. More so than vice-versa. My 2 cents. + Show Spoiler + Calls out aztro for being detrimental to town by him asking for protection despite not being very useful to town. This post solidifies CubE as being a townie to me. I really don't see why Veldril would have to be a vamp too just because Masq is one when if it turns out Masq isn't one he's just an overzealous townie? This logic seems very backwards to me. Same goes for the case if he kills Veldril. Using the same logic, Veldril would not vehemently support someone unless he was absolutely sure of his alignment, so Masq would be criminalized by a possible vamp flip as well. Seems very passionate about getting Masq offed. In general mafia games with just one team, this is generally a very scummish thing to say as you already know he won't be mafia, so you have your excuse ready. In this game with three teams however it doesn't ring true as much, and this makes me more hesitant to call CubE out on just this. Pushed his lynch of Masq really hard in day one, but now he's questioning a Veldril lynch after Masq turned up red even though he said he wanted to immediately after day 1? This is very suspicious to me and the most criminalizing post I have found of CubE. Continues to want to wait for the day post which to me is not a good idea since you can get a ton of good behavior analysis done in the night and you may be dead before the next day. Could just be a newbie mistake though. This is just drawing straws. BM PMs everyone during every game to try and get as much info out like a lunatic, which is something he does in every game. For BM, this is nothing out of the ordinary and I wouldn't see it as a scum tell. Definitely far from enough to say 90% M/V. More nitpicking and drawing at straws here just to make it seem likely that Cubedln is likely to be a mafia and then states that he is most likely town to make it seem like he's not really incriminating Cubedln. I don't really get why he's going after Cubedln when there are a lot more suspicious people and his reasoning seems very strange to say the least. | ||
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Nemesis
Canada2568 Posts
On October 15 2010 03:36 KhrisKruel wrote: Post counts are only important for identifying who isn't posting and is lurking. Top poster means nothing. It only identifies play styles, not indicative of scum or town. Yeah that was why I wanted to know post counts. Mostly to know who is lurking. Or those who are trying to keep posting to a minimum as to not give away any information. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
I am highly suspicious of you after this post. You seem to be nitpicking at Cube's post, but leaving out post which contradicts what you are trying to convey to everyone. I have not left out any post of content deliberately. If I did you'd see a much more onesided image. Instead I tried to paint a fair and balanced picture of the posts I have read of him. [QUOTE]On October 15 2010 04:10 Nemesis wrote: He seems to have left out this post purposely. [QUOTE]On October 13 2010 07:08 CubEdIn wrote: [QUOTE]On October 13 2010 07:02 NB wrote: [QUOTE]On October 13 2010 06:53 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, one final post to strengthen my position, since we're rapidly approaching end of day one and it seems that it's either Masq or Veldril: 1. Don't you find it weird that people who have been quiet, yet voted, are stacking up on Veldril? 2. If you're sure about Veldril, then keep your vote, but please think about what I said for 5 minutes. What happens if the kill (be it Vel or Masq) is NOT Mafia or Vampire. What would that tell us about the other? Obviously, if we kill either, and they ARE in fact M/V, then the other will die as well. Easy PZ. But think of the alternatives, what if they're not? If we kill Veldril, and he's not M/V, then we know NOTHING about masq (because of lack of posts). If we kill Masq, we still have Veldril's behaviour to judge him on.[/QUOTE] Have you thought that if we lynching Veld today and he turns out to be a green, Masq has more chance to be a M/V? Even though he does not post much, the possibility that Masq is framing Veld is not 0. It happens at the moment when he agree with Veld's protection post.... What does this means? this means that if 1 of them die by lynching, there is a pretty high chance the other will die by KP of M/V no matter what is the result of lynching. And if he(the one who is not being lynched on day1) survived through night1... The only conclusion i could give you is that our ghost is protecting a red... Those above are my "prediction"... Dont listen to it if you think i have gone crazy with my HW T_T[/QUOTE] Yes, I thought about that, but it's a bit of a long shot. I don't think you'll convince many people to vote for Masq on day 2 if Veldril is green. Especially if he's Count/GF and he fakes his role for detective, he might live for the rest of the game. Instead, given Veldril's posts, he would still be suspected even if Masq turns out to be green. More so than vice-versa. My 2 cents. [/QUOTE] I'm not sure which part to respond here. The bolded part indicates he has doubt about Veldril indeed, however he later posted that it was 100% that Veldril would be lynched if Masq was too. I mistakenly assumed this as him supporting this lynch and therefore thought he was going back on his promise. I had a PM convo with CubE before this accusation, so he can verify that. [quote]More nitpicking and drawing at straws here just to make it seem likely that Cubedln is likely to be a mafia and then states that he is most likely town to make it seem like he's not really incriminating Cubedln. I don't really get why he's going after Cubedln when there are a lot more suspicious people and his reasoning seems very strange to say the least.[/quote] Nitpicking and drawing at straws are your words, not mine. I was simply analyzing his posts and comparing it to the way townies and mafia have played in previous games, though I also stated that since this is a 3 party game, not all comparisions may be accurate. As for why I choose CubE; I got subbed in late and saw him making a few posts which seemed decently lengthy, so I figured I would have enough posts to analyze. I also never claimed him to be likely mafia; in fact I said he is likely townie, just that there is still a good risk of him being Mafia. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On October 15 2010 04:10 Nemesis wrote: He seems to have left out this post purposely. I'm not sure which part to respond here. The bolded part indicates he has doubt about Veldril indeed, however he later posted that it was 100% that Veldril would be lynched if Masq was too. I mistakenly assumed this as him supporting this lynch and therefore thought he was going back on his promise. I had a PM convo with CubE before this accusation, so he can verify that. More nitpicking and drawing at straws here just to make it seem likely that Cubedln is likely to be a mafia and then states that he is most likely town to make it seem like he's not really incriminating Cubedln. I don't really get why he's going after Cubedln when there are a lot more suspicious people and his reasoning seems very strange to say the least. Nitpicking and drawing at straws are your words, not mine. I was simply analyzing his posts and comparing it to the way townies and mafia have played in previous games, though I also stated that since this is a 3 party game, not all comparisions may be accurate. As for why I choose CubE; I got subbed in late and saw him making a few posts which seemed decently lengthy, so I figured I would have enough posts to analyze. I also never claimed him to be likely mafia; in fact I said he is likely townie, just that there is still a good risk of him being Mafia. | ||
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Nemesis
Canada2568 Posts
On October 15 2010 04:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Sigh, now I messed up the quotes too. I'm not sure which part to respond here. The bolded part indicates he has doubt about Veldril indeed, however he later posted that it was 100% that Veldril would be lynched if Masq was too. I mistakenly assumed this as him supporting this lynch and therefore thought he was going back on his promise. I had a PM convo with CubE before this accusation, so he can verify that. Nitpicking and drawing at straws are your words, not mine. I was simply analyzing his posts and comparing it to the way townies and mafia have played in previous games, though I also stated that since this is a 3 party game, not all comparisions may be accurate. As for why I choose CubE; I got subbed in late and saw him making a few posts which seemed decently lengthy, so I figured I would have enough posts to analyze. I also never claimed him to be likely mafia; in fact I said he is likely townie, just that there is still a good risk of him being Mafia. Fair enough, but I still find it suspicious that you were singling him out. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
IRC games are live chat and usually take from like 30 minutes to ~2 hours depending on how things go (for a 9 player game) | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On October 15 2010 04:58 Nemesis wrote: Fair enough, but I still find it suspicious that you were singling him out. I'm going to do a few more, don't worry. All in due time. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
Anyway, you can check, this is my first game, so I didn't really think that NOT voting for Veldril on the first hour of day 2 would somewhat incriminate me. I guess it makes sense, since it does seem that I tried to cast blame OFF Veldril TO Masq (and I did, lol), but it was also fairly obvious back then that Veldril would die if Masq is mafia. This is reflected in today's votes, but me voting for him as well (now that I've been accused) will only look like an attempt to cover my tracks. I probably WILL end up voting for him anyway, since nobody else seems close to being more of a positive match, but since he's already heavily under the gun, I don't think my vote in particular would cause more pressure (he's currently top voted with 10 votes vs 2 votes for the next candidate). However, my biggest problem as of now, is not who to vote for, since I already have Veldril to aim for, but who ELSE is a suspect. Think about it, on day one we had masq, and then a shitstorm of posts that incriminated a lot of people (and if you don't believe that they did, take a look at the kill count in night 1). I, frankly, didn't catch those "hints" which has me worried. If Mafia/Vamp managed to aim correctly since night one, then those hints were there, for sure. Why did we not see them as well? What are we not seeing now? I need to go through all this thread again but I don't have time right now, and it's only getting bigger. After that (prolly in about 12h or so), I'll set my vote. Frankly, I think that I'll end up voting for Veldril anyway, but I'm not convinced that he's Vamp just yet, I was way, way more "sure" of masq. Downside is that, apart from him, everyone else is just a blur. | ||
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seRapH
United States9756 Posts
On October 15 2010 06:55 CubEdIn wrote: Cool, I'm being suspected, makes me feel important! Anyway, you can check, this is my first game, so I didn't really think that NOT voting for Veldril on the first hour of day 2 would somewhat incriminate me. I guess it makes sense, since it does seem that I tried to cast blame OFF Veldril TO Masq (and I did, lol), but it was also fairly obvious back then that Veldril would die if Masq is mafia. This is reflected in today's votes, but me voting for him as well (now that I've been accused) will only look like an attempt to cover my tracks. I probably WILL end up voting for him anyway, since nobody else seems close to being more of a positive match, but since he's already heavily under the gun, I don't think my vote in particular would cause more pressure (he's currently top voted with 10 votes vs 2 votes for the next candidate). However, my biggest problem as of now, is not who to vote for, since I already have Veldril to aim for, but who ELSE is a suspect. Think about it, on day one we had masq, and then a shitstorm of posts that incriminated a lot of people (and if you don't believe that they did, take a look at the kill count in night 1). I, frankly, didn't catch those "hints" which has me worried. If Mafia/Vamp managed to aim correctly since night one, then those hints were there, for sure. Why did we not see them as well? What are we not seeing now? I need to go through all this thread again but I don't have time right now, and it's only getting bigger. After that (prolly in about 12h or so), I'll set my vote. Frankly, I think that I'll end up voting for Veldril anyway, but I'm not convinced that he's Vamp just yet, I was way, way more "sure" of masq. Downside is that, apart from him, everyone else is just a blur. Keep in mind that people may have been incriminated via PM too. | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
other possible good lynches JODO BILL(the new guy) ORGO | ||
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Glasse
Canada1237 Posts
On October 15 2010 08:28 Coagulation wrote: currently voting lynch on veld other possible good lynches JODO BILL(the new guy) ORGO either brownbear or the other guy with a giant cat picture in his profile are also a good choice. I decided to vote with the less obvious cat reference though. I think im the only one going off of clues this round :O | ||
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aztrorisk
United States896 Posts
ps join #tlmafia for IRC mafia games, join and idle in it i hope to start games up when we get a nice base of people IRC games are live chat and usually take from like 30 minutes to ~2 hours depending on how things go (for a 9 player game) IRC chats are not allowed. Stated by the host. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On October 15 2010 08:51 aztrorisk wrote: IRC chats are not allowed. Stated by the host. He's talking about different games completely unrelated to this one ^^ | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 15 2010 08:51 aztrorisk wrote: IRC chats are not allowed. Stated by the host. Not only did i not say that, but this IRC chat is irrelevant to this game and I highly recommend everyone join it! | ||
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aztrorisk
United States896 Posts
If someone is hit and survived I will PM them with that information. If a ghost successfully saves someone I will also PM them. It's just not public information. wait, so if I didn't get a PM, i was saved? | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On October 15 2010 00:41 BrownBear wrote: Now, onto today's lynch... right now I'm a fan of lynching the chainsaw-defending Veldril, for two reasons: 1: I really can't see any logical explanation for his defense of Masq other than "vampire buddy who didn't know what bussing was" 2: We drop a vampire today, we lower their KP to two, which means one less death per night. After today, though, we really should be focusing on hunting down mafia, to bring the numbers back to equal. As town, we're trying to maintain balance between the two scum factions - we don't want mafia to get too much of an upper hand here. And then in the voting thread: With no explanation, I might add. Another possible vampire trying to save his vamp buddy? Glasse, care to explain yourself? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 15 2010 08:54 aztrorisk wrote: wait, so if I didn't get a PM, i was saved? If you did not receive a PM telling you that you were hit, then you were not hit. | ||
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aztrorisk
United States896 Posts
Not only did i not say that, but this IRC chat is irrelevant to this game and I highly recommend everyone join it! + Show Spoiler + As a rule going forward: There is to be NO discussion of that irc channel in this thread. It is far too easy to pretend to be someone else and make a fake roleclaim. If you're going to roleclaim or make any serious attempt at discussion, do it in this thread. Because you can not confirm you are who you say you are in a general IRC I seriously recommend you take nothing said in there seriously. It's a nice place to spam, mess about, and NOTHING else. Relevant game discussion belongs in the game thread. Anyone who pretends to be me in the IRC chat will be modkilled and I will suggest you for a permanent ban from all TL mafia games. That includes smurfing under my name. There will be no exceptions to this rule. srry but this kinda sounds like not allowing IRC channels | ||
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