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United States1798 Posts
On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote: So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right?
Correct.
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On July 23 2024 23:45 allmotor1 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2024 18:15 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 18:05 Poopi wrote: You are thinking way too much of statistics and greatness isn't about statistics but about inspiring people Zerg wasn't in need of inspiration in LotV Protoss and terrans were I think it is more like that people who are not pleased with statistics are trying to make unreasonable arguments. Everyone who is pro Maru, Rogue or Mvp is listing their amazing statistics. Everyone does it. They only become irrelevant when Serral is thrown in it seems. And if you think that Serral isn't an inspiration to people, then you should read some YT comments. Here is a definition of Meryam Webster what it means to be great: "to do (something) very well" To be fair, if Serral was around since WOL and was a competitive player all throughout sc2's history, you wouldn't be downplaying his longevity like you seem to be doing to Maru's longevity. There's not many players who have been around as long as Maru and are still after all this time a top competitor. Serral is truly a phenom no doubt, however I'm sorry, but since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned. (maybe not so much now since the patches) If Serral was a Terran or Protoss player he would not have had the same level of success as he has had. Dark/Rogue/Reynor have all feasted in LOTV. Not too long ago on every tournament, people would lament it was another zvz finals and/or semi finals. You mention Serral not having teamhouses, sure but if you mention that don't fail to mention how the Korean scene was negatively affected by the region lock. And going back to Maru's longevity, it's not just how he's been competitive all that time, but sc2 in the earlier days went through massive changes and the competitiveness was just higher. LOTV has been pretty stable and the playing field has just shrunk and stagnated. Then you said "Korea elitists," I remember I would see comments in tournaments such as "no more foreigners, I'm not watching anymore." I only mention this since you mentioned biases, maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt you'd be going to bat for Serral if he wasn't a non korean player. Where do you think that I downplayed Maru's longevity? Maru would definitely be the GOAT if it wasn't for Serral, in my opinion.
What are the statistics leading you to say that Zerg has been overtuned? By how much percent?
The rest was addressed.
And no, I have no racial biases. I don't bat for anyone... I simply portray the data. I only used Korean elitists, because that is a term used for people who often overvalue either a specific era or a player to make an argument against foreigners.
Mizenhauer wrote: Correct.
So in this example.. after which time would you accept that the tides have turned? Or will Maru's 4 years always trump Serral despite the relation getting smaller and smaller over time?
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On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote:On June 11 2024 04:56 Furaijin wrote: After Serral getting the official GOAT trophy and 4:0 -ing Maru once again; wasnt even close btw.. just like last time... shouldnt this post u know... not be here xDDDDDD It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic. ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. Show nested quote +rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see...
I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure.
I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective.
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On July 23 2024 10:38 UnLarva wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2024 09:46 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote:On June 11 2024 04:56 Furaijin wrote: After Serral getting the official GOAT trophy and 4:0 -ing Maru once again; wasnt even close btw.. just like last time... shouldnt this post u know... not be here xDDDDDD It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic. ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Listen to the interview Starcraft Historian did with uThermal to understand why all decades are not created equal. Winning an OSL in 2013 with literally hundreds of pros competing is not the same thing as winning a DH in 2024 with a rotating constellation of the same few dozen players competing, some of whom aren't even the best players in the world (due to regional allotments). You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is. This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Great post. Only problem here is that this all is pretty much applicable to Maru too, and if we really count his efforts and achievements during that now near-mythical era (that Serral lacks), then we can point more deserving guy(s) for the GOAT than Maru (again, applying same criteria). Thinking Maru as The Goat in these circumstances doesn't feel right. Mvp lacks too much to be really considered. 
Which is why I said if results in the most competitive era are the “only” thing you care about, you’re probably picking a guy like Mvp. I do not agree that results in the most competitive era is a wash between Maru and Serral. Maru is arguably the most dominant Proleague player ever and he won two premier tournaments that arguably were more difficult to win than anything Serral has ever won precisely because of the respective differences in the player pools. There were several times in SCII’s super competitive era in which Maru was the best Terran in the world and even the best player in the world. Not as much as some of his contemporaries, but the idea that Maru had no results to speak of during that era doesn’t make sense.
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On July 24 2024 09:39 rwala wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2024 10:38 UnLarva wrote:On July 23 2024 09:46 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote:On June 11 2024 04:56 Furaijin wrote: After Serral getting the official GOAT trophy and 4:0 -ing Maru once again; wasnt even close btw.. just like last time... shouldnt this post u know... not be here xDDDDDD It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic. ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Listen to the interview Starcraft Historian did with uThermal to understand why all decades are not created equal. Winning an OSL in 2013 with literally hundreds of pros competing is not the same thing as winning a DH in 2024 with a rotating constellation of the same few dozen players competing, some of whom aren't even the best players in the world (due to regional allotments). You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is. This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Great post. Only problem here is that this all is pretty much applicable to Maru too, and if we really count his efforts and achievements during that now near-mythical era (that Serral lacks), then we can point more deserving guy(s) for the GOAT than Maru (again, applying same criteria). Thinking Maru as The Goat in these circumstances doesn't feel right. Mvp lacks too much to be really considered.  Which is why I said if results in the most competitive era are the “only” thing you care about, you’re probably picking a guy like Mvp. I do not agree that results in the most competitive era is a wash between Maru and Serral. Maru is arguably the most dominant Proleague player ever and he won two premier tournaments that arguably were more difficult to win than anything Serral has ever won precisely because of the respective differences in the player pools. There were several times in SCII’s super competitive era in which Maru was the best Terran in the world and even the best player in the world. Not as much as some of his contemporaries, but the idea that Maru had no results to speak of during that era doesn’t make sense.
I'm not in denial of competitive peak era of the game and Maru's successes during it. However, that is only minor part of Maru's career and in this GOAT discussion the most relevant part for his case comes after those times (measurable statistically). His 4 GSL 2018 in row skyrocketed him as real GOAT contender. However, that happened during the time when also Serral rose up to prominence/dominance, and PremoBeast's statistical analysis show clearly that you should overvalue Maru's achievements (and era, peers, tourneys) pre-2018 insanely to make him look even with Serral statistics (in some of metrics.) Also, Serral was most heavily handicapped with the fact that big part of his career and achievements was left out the scope of analysis (which, I agree was right thing to do for purposes of the analysis and as easiest simplification available). In other words, Serral's case would look better if all EU successes and career vs foreigners would be included even if using same level of nerfing and handicapping. Maru's regionals were included, but Serral's were not.
Maru's pre-2018 achievements are simply not enough to cover the gap between him and heavily handicapped Half-Serral vs Koreans only. In such circumstances, if Serral is closed out as GOAT candidate, personally cannot see any justification for Maru to be considered GOAT either, as he was not best and most successful even in his most successful and relevant parts of his career. If favoring the golden era that high over later times that would make Maru appear over Serral statistically means also using those same criteria to every other player playing during that era. Maru cannot be the GOAT as there are more prominent and successful players there earning the title before him (measured by size of trophy cabinet, tournament wins etc.) who would get same absurd buffs as him.
The Greatest of All Times criteria must include all eras, but if weightings between eras must be disfigured to a surreal levels to make one contender look better than he really is (in this context) we all can see the problem here.
Go Innovation! Go Rogue!
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On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote:On June 11 2024 04:56 Furaijin wrote: After Serral getting the official GOAT trophy and 4:0 -ing Maru once again; wasnt even close btw.. just like last time... shouldnt this post u know... not be here xDDDDDD It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic. ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency 
Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT.
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On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote:On June 11 2024 04:56 Furaijin wrote: After Serral getting the official GOAT trophy and 4:0 -ing Maru once again; wasnt even close btw.. just like last time... shouldnt this post u know... not be here xDDDDDD It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic. ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT.
Good you note that Serral has been around very long too. I've that ridiculous mental image (induced by the site) on Maru as some sort of super sc2-toddler in a corner of a playroom of a crowded team house, while little Serral was continuously kicked ass by his brother Protosser on a back seat of their family sedan, when they both practice APM with unplugged keyboards...
It is not like Serral would be some kind of newcomer to the scene as a whole.
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On July 24 2024 15:00 UnLarva wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote: [quote] It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic.
ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT. Good you note that Serral has been around very long too. I've that ridiculous mental image (induced by the site) on Maru as some sort of super sc2-toddler in a corner of a playroom of a crowded team house, while little Serral was continuously kicked ass by his brother Protosser on a back seat of their family sedan, when they both practice APM with unplugged keyboards... It is not like Serral would be some kind of newcomer to the scene as a whole. I mean Serral played Rain in 2015 where he won one and lost one match. Given the fact that he already was able to at least take maps of players who some people also throw in as GOATs, implies that Serral, was he born Korean, didn't attend school and also had the support of team houses with their strategy crafting and 12 hours practice regimes, probably wouldn't have fared much worse than Maru when looking at how he outclasses him so much in the same era statistical wise and how Serral kickstarted once school was over. But too many ifs and an abysmal sample size leave too much room to truly pursue this thought in any meaningful way.
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On July 24 2024 16:53 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 15:00 UnLarva wrote:On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote: [quote] We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT. Good you note that Serral has been around very long too. I've that ridiculous mental image (induced by the site) on Maru as some sort of super sc2-toddler in a corner of a playroom of a crowded team house, while little Serral was continuously kicked ass by his brother Protosser on a back seat of their family sedan, when they both practice APM with unplugged keyboards... It is not like Serral would be some kind of newcomer to the scene as a whole. I mean Serral played Rain in 2015 where he won one and lost one match. Given the fact that he already was able to at least take maps of players who some people also throw in as GOATs, implies that Serral, was he born Korean, didn't attend school and also had the support of team houses with their strategy crafting and 12 hours practice regimes, probably wouldn't have fared much worse than Maru when looking at how he outclasses him so much in the same era statistical wis and how Serral kickstarted once school was over. But too many ifs and an abysmal sample size leave too much room to truly pursue this thought in any meaningful way.
I have had the feeling that this "Lack of team house environment with 12h/d sweat grinders" - argument as something Serral is lacking and making him better (or worse!!!) for this reason doesn't simply work as I think the environment were Serral grew up (and is living) was (and is) many ways more healthy and balanced than his Korean peers experienced. I think that Serral's environment is buff/perk for his case: supportive family that also set healthy limits, highly competitive (at least first, nearly unsurmountable) setting with his big brother, SC2 as wholesome family experience (journeys to tournaments together as a family), muuuuuuuch muuuuuuuch more peaceful environmental setting (big city vs rural village), sauna, hikes with dog in a woods, less economic dependancies and requirements to perform well, etc. that cultivated Serral to what he became. Serral was luckily born to "the team house family".
I mean, Serral looks to me benefitting from exactly those same things that are usually considered as a burden or extra uphill battle for his rise to prominence. Should I say more 'Zen' for him.
Korean team house experience should be considered as handicapping factor relative to Sotala's family team house experience.
Admittedly I am biased with this take as a fellow Finn, but I share a lot of mental landscape with Serral only because of that. That's why I also think that Serral couldn't care less about going Korea and playing in the GSL (that, no doubt, would increase a lot of it's relative value.) Just for note how I see that topic.
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United States1798 Posts
On July 24 2024 04:40 PremoBeats wrote: So in this example.. after which time would you accept that the tides have turned? Or will Maru's 4 years always trump Serral despite the relation getting smaller and smaller over time?
That depends on their results.
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On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote:On June 11 2024 04:56 Furaijin wrote: After Serral getting the official GOAT trophy and 4:0 -ing Maru once again; wasnt even close btw.. just like last time... shouldnt this post u know... not be here xDDDDDD It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic. ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT.
How are you calculating peak pro player count? Genuinely curious because I had assumed that after that first GSL where an insane 2000+ players competed in the LAN qualifiers (including over 100 non-Koreans) things normalized and in fact the pro player base steadily decreased as more and more pros and young talents switched over to LoL, etc.
I like that you’re conceding the point on the Clem hypo because I think it really helps understand differences of perspective in how to think about GOATs. For me personally there comes a point where the pro scene has dwindled so much and the tournament player pools and formats become such a shadow of their former selves that essentially results in that era don’t matter much if at all in terms of a GOAT convo.
I thought the conversation between uThermal and StarCraft Historian on this point was really illuminating because for a lot of contemporary fans it’s hard to really imagine how much more competitive the game was. Imagine competing in a qualifier of hundreds and hundreds of pros for a chance to make it to another qualifier of dozens and dozens of pros to make it to 2 or 3 group stages of top-level pros, all of whom are specifically preparing builds to counter your playstyle. There really aren’t tournaments these days that come anywhere near that level. These days you can have a losing record in your Katowice group and still win the whole thing on a good day. uThermal described getting destroyed by 5th tier Korean pros during the most competitive era, and described how demoralizing it was when like 40 random Korean pros (often not the best ones) would show up at an MLG and flood the playoff bracket.
People describe this as “Korean elitism” but it’s actually just an honest observation of how competitive the scene was at a time in which the government of a country and its largest corporations had been investing in talent and infrastructure for over a decade.
Korean Starcraft competitions for the first 20 years of SCI and II are like the equivalent of the NBA. Could a player who never competed in the NBA but is widely regarded as the best and most dominant player in the world by their peers, has the most impressive stats, and led their team to several gold medals and league championships be the basketball GOAT? Sure! In fact, uThermal believes Serral is the GOAT despite being more honest than anyone in this forum about how much more competitive the scene was in South Korea.
I appreciate that Serral held his own against Rain one time, etc. but this is not the same as demonstrating that you can consistently defeat the world’s best players, win and place highly in the most competitive tournaments the game has ever seen, and dominate the most competitive, high stakes league in the game’s history.
That said, I think Serral is a great GOAT pick for many people. The best analogy for Serral fans I think is Babe Ruth. He is probably the consensus GOAT pick in baseball despite the fact that he played in a less competitive era (fewer teams/players, athletes of color prohibited from playing, etc.). Ruth was so much more dominant than other players of his era and he had the rare talent of being a slugger who was also an excellent pitcher. Ruth also popularized the game almost single-handedly in a way that I think Serral popularized SCII with a “Western” audience. Ruth wouldn’t be my baseball GOAT pick for a lot of the same reasons Serral isn’t mine either, but it’s a good analogy for understanding how a competitor could be the GOAT despite playing in a less competitive era.
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France12758 Posts
@rwala:
good points. I would add that Serral's BlizzCon victory helped Starcraft 2 regain popularity in the West (helped by the region lock etc.), because otherwise the domination of KR players would have kept sc2 as this "niche" game (it's still super niche, but it could have been way worse in that regard) for "KR elitists" (read: most people on this very forum from back then). That's something that can't / shouldn't be measured by statistics, yet it's imo pretty important in helping Serral's case imho.
Similarly, the hope that Maru was able to give MANY terrans when the race was getting demolished, also help his case imo.
Both players are great nonetheless
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@rwala: Excellent post again!
From number side of the things, now we need only somewhat objective measurements to make sensible comparisons between eras. Personally It wouldn't be problem to me if in the end multipliers for the peak competitive era would appear something like x3.0 or x4.0 relative to post-2018 happenings, but such multipliers must come from rigorous studies.
The key issue is the striking and immediately apparent contradiction between statistics and what is written to the very title of this topic. If current top dogs all would be some kind newcomer usurpers I'd happily accept 'Korean Elitist stance', but, but, those Koreans who still remain there playing last half decade or so are practically all (and have been since heydays) the chrystallization and from the core of that same Korean Elite gamer group that once made Korean SC2 hegemony nearly inpenetrable for foreigners. And there is that one guy who have been slapping that cohort of absolutely best already six years. Why only look retrospectively backwards, when you can also look from the history onwards. In fact a hell lot of same guys are playing and watching how things fold out now. They are not those tier-5 Koreans flooding brackets for number 140 or 203 in a random qualifiers, they are the cream-of-the-cream Serral must meet every single tournament where he plays against Koreans. For the top dog It's irrelevant if there are 2000, 100, or 30, if 20 or so at the top 30 now are among the best players ever to play the game.
Trying to not sound too antagonistical here. :D
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On July 24 2024 17:24 UnLarva wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 16:53 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 15:00 UnLarva wrote:On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote: [quote] Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT. Good you note that Serral has been around very long too. I've that ridiculous mental image (induced by the site) on Maru as some sort of super sc2-toddler in a corner of a playroom of a crowded team house, while little Serral was continuously kicked ass by his brother Protosser on a back seat of their family sedan, when they both practice APM with unplugged keyboards... It is not like Serral would be some kind of newcomer to the scene as a whole. I mean Serral played Rain in 2015 where he won one and lost one match. Given the fact that he already was able to at least take maps of players who some people also throw in as GOATs, implies that Serral, was he born Korean, didn't attend school and also had the support of team houses with their strategy crafting and 12 hours practice regimes, probably wouldn't have fared much worse than Maru when looking at how he outclasses him so much in the same era statistical wis and how Serral kickstarted once school was over. But too many ifs and an abysmal sample size leave too much room to truly pursue this thought in any meaningful way. I have had the feeling that this "Lack of team house environment with 12h/d sweat grinders" - argument as something Serral is lacking and making him better (or worse!!!) for this reason doesn't simply work as I think the environment were Serral grew up (and is living) was (and is) many ways more healthy and balanced than his Korean peers experienced. I think that Serral's environment is buff/perk for his case: supportive family that also set healthy limits, highly competitive (at least first, nearly unsurmountable) setting with his big brother, SC2 as wholesome family experience (journeys to tournaments together as a family), muuuuuuuch muuuuuuuch more peaceful environmental setting (big city vs rural village), sauna, hikes with dog in a woods, less economic dependancies and requirements to perform well, etc. that cultivated Serral to what he became. Serral was luckily born to "the team house family". I mean, Serral looks to me benefitting from exactly those same things that are usually considered as a burden or extra uphill battle for his rise to prominence. Should I say more 'Zen' for him. Korean team house experience should be considered as handicapping factor relative to Sotala's family team house experience. Admittedly I am biased with this take as a fellow Finn, but I share a lot of mental landscape with Serral only because of that. That's why I also think that Serral couldn't care less about going Korea and playing in the GSL (that, no doubt, would increase a lot of its relative value.) Just for note how I see that topic.
This could very well be the case... I also never tried to factor this idea in, but people always use team houses to hype the peak era in terms of competitiveness. Hence it wouldn't make much sense to assume that it would have been detrimental to Serral (by their logic). I simply point this out to show that many people assume one thing when they argue for one person and turn the argument on the head when arguing for another (not you right here - just making a broader point). It either is a good thing or a bad thing for players... it can't be hyped as a cornerstone of competitiveness in one argument and used as a disadvantage for a player in another. It is either or.
It is the same when people downplay 2018 and following for Serral, but in another argument highlight how many trophies Maru claims (For example: 2018 when Maru had his 4 back to back GSL. Then the era was still competitive and the player base dwindled steadily. But when Serral's rise is pointed out, people make the argument that this post 2015 competitiveness and doesn't hold much value). They change the value of events based on their argumentation and don't treat them as stable. This is a typical case of special pleading fallacy as it is obviously a portrayal of inconsistent application (of the event/s), lack of justification (why it should be the case to make a differentiation) as well as bias and favoritism.
On July 24 2024 20:26 Mizenhauer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 04:40 PremoBeats wrote: So in this example.. after which time would you accept that the tides have turned? Or will Maru's 4 years always trump Serral despite the relation getting smaller and smaller over time?
That depends on their results.
"Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)?"
On July 24 2024 22:56 rwala wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote:On July 20 2024 21:39 Furaijin wrote:On June 11 2024 15:06 MJG wrote: [quote] It's almost as if different people can have different opinions on the same subjective topic.
ESL going out of their way to push their opinion doesn't make it anymore fact than if I were to pick a name out of a hat. We're having a "goat" conversation here; that's not about opinions? What you talking bout? If it was then this post would be called; who do you think is the greatest! And not "who is the goat" these are VERY different conversations. If we're talking goat then Serral is hands down so much better than Maru overal this topic is nothing but a fan of Maru trolling the community with his silly wishes and has very little to do with a "goat" conversation. Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT. How are you calculating peak pro player count? Genuinely curious because I had assumed that after that first GSL where an insane 2000+ players competed in the LAN qualifiers (including over 100 non-Koreans) things normalized and in fact the pro player base steadily decreased as more and more pros and young talents switched over to LoL, etc. I like that you’re conceding the point on the Clem hypo because I think it really helps understand differences of perspective in how to think about GOATs. For me personally there comes a point where the pro scene has dwindled so much and the tournament player pools and formats become such a shadow of their former selves that essentially results in that era don’t matter much if at all in terms of a GOAT convo. I thought the conversation between uThermal and StarCraft Historian on this point was really illuminating because for a lot of contemporary fans it’s hard to really imagine how much more competitive the game was. Imagine competing in a qualifier of hundreds and hundreds of pros for a chance to make it to another qualifier of dozens and dozens of pros to make it to 2 or 3 group stages of top-level pros, all of whom are specifically preparing builds to counter your playstyle. There really aren’t tournaments these days that come anywhere near that level. These days you can have a losing record in your Katowice group and still win the whole thing on a good day. uThermal described getting destroyed by 5th tier Korean pros during the most competitive era, and described how demoralizing it was when like 40 random Korean pros (often not the best ones) would show up at an MLG and flood the playoff bracket. People describe this as “Korean elitism” but it’s actually just an honest observation of how competitive the scene was at a time in which the government of a country and its largest corporations had been investing in talent and infrastructure for over a decade. Korean Starcraft competitions for the first 20 years of SCI and II are like the equivalent of the NBA. Could a player who never competed in the NBA but is widely regarded as the best and most dominant player in the world by their peers, has the most impressive stats, and led their team to several gold medals and league championships be the basketball GOAT? Sure! In fact, uThermal believes Serral is the GOAT despite being more honest than anyone in this forum about how much more competitive the scene was in South Korea. I appreciate that Serral held his own against Rain one time, etc. but this is not the same as demonstrating that you can consistently defeat the world’s best players, win and place highly in the most competitive tournaments the game has ever seen, and dominate the most competitive, high stakes league in the game’s history. That said, I think Serral is a great GOAT pick for many people. The best analogy for Serral fans I think is Babe Ruth. He is probably the consensus GOAT pick in baseball despite the fact that he played in a less competitive era (fewer teams/players, athletes of color prohibited from playing, etc.). Ruth was so much more dominant than other players of his era and he had the rare talent of being a slugger who was also an excellent pitcher. Ruth also popularized the game almost single-handedly in a way that I think Serral popularized SCII with a “Western” audience. Ruth wouldn’t be my baseball GOAT pick for a lot of the same reasons Serral isn’t mine either, but it’s a good analogy for understanding how a competitor could be the GOAT despite playing in a less competitive era. Well, the first GSL was played in 2010 and LoL came out in 2013. It had to gain traction first, thus I mostly put the exodus on 2015. IIRC LoL had a couple of ten million player (60-80) in the beginning and got the 100million milestone around 2016. The pro count of SC2 peaked in 2015/2016 and then everyone knows what happened. But I don't only base competitiveness on player count alone. A game needs to be played some time to be understood. Cheese needs to be countered. I looked at the number of team houses and approximated the number with 10-15 players pro team house. This of course is not very detailed, but I think, if someone is willing to invest the time, you simply could look at the teams and which players were under contract at which time. Perhaps I am mistaken on that one, as I simply didn't put much time into a differentiation. I made the cut at the end of 2017 to disadvantage Serral the most versus all other players.
You are right... that time was much more difficult. But what most people seem to forget at that point: Many players of that era who were pros, were not top tier players. Yes, snipes occurred and sometimes favorites didn't make it out qualifiers or dropped to Code A. But the favorites were still the favorites and more often than not advanced (I am trying to put numbers on this aspect at the moment, but I will definitely need more time to do this accurately). Further, the quantity of tournaments often made it seem like all players competed all the time, which simply was not the case. Another guy here pointed out that TaeJa mostly won unimportant tournaments. Thus a narrative of heroism is easier to create, when someone who has 9 titles plays against another guy that has 9 titles. This simply isn't possible anymore today. That is why I value the stream lining of today's events for clarity, although they are admittedly more boring, as outcomes are more predictable. But they are... more honest (although it would definitely good for the scene to have more talent rising up and not only mostly from European). Btw, Korean elitists isn't a pejorative in my book, but a simple description.
(And damn, I should have kept my mouth shut with that Rain comment... I knew nothing good would come of it :D )
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On July 24 2024 23:37 UnLarva wrote: @rwala: Excellent post again!
From number side of the things, now we need only somewhat objective measurements to make sensible comparisons between eras. Personally It wouldn't be problem to me if in the end multipliers for the peak competitive era would appear something like x3.0 or x4.0 relative to post-2018 happenings, but such multipliers must come from rigorous studies.
The key issue is the striking and immediately apparent contradiction between statistics and what is written to the very title of this topic. If current top dogs all would be some kind newcomer usurpers I'd happily accept 'Korean Elitist stance', but, but, those Koreans who still remain there playing last half decade or so are practically all (and have been since heydays) the chrystallization and from the core of that same Korean Elite gamer group that once made Korean SC2 hegemony nearly inpenetrable for foreigners. And there is that one guy who have been slapping that cohort of absolutely best already six years. Why only look retrospectively backwards, when you can also look from the history onwards. In fact a hell lot of same guys are playing and watching how things fold out now. They are not those tier-5 Koreans flooding brackets for number 140 or 203 in a random qualifiers, they are the cream-of-the-cream Serral must meet every single tournament where he playes against Koreans. For the top dog It's irrelevant if there are 2000, 100, or 30, if 20 or so at the top 30 now are among the best players ever to play the game.
Trying to not sound too antagonistical here. :D Hahaha, so funny. I was bored at the airport and playing around with my multiplier. I would need a 300% bonus to put INno on par with Serral in the tournament score. On par. The third on this list... and then you still have the tournament multiplier that basically also mostly favors this area and has another 30% incorporated for most comparisons.
And what you basically are saying at the end is exactly what I am trying to put numbers on at the moment.
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On July 24 2024 23:54 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 23:37 UnLarva wrote: @rwala: Excellent post again!
From number side of the things, now we need only somewhat objective measurements to make sensible comparisons between eras. Personally It wouldn't be problem to me if in the end multipliers for the peak competitive era would appear something like x3.0 or x4.0 relative to post-2018 happenings, but such multipliers must come from rigorous studies.
The key issue is the striking and immediately apparent contradiction between statistics and what is written to the very title of this topic. If current top dogs all would be some kind newcomer usurpers I'd happily accept 'Korean Elitist stance', but, but, those Koreans who still remain there playing last half decade or so are practically all (and have been since heydays) the chrystallization and from the core of that same Korean Elite gamer group that once made Korean SC2 hegemony nearly inpenetrable for foreigners. And there is that one guy who have been slapping that cohort of absolutely best already six years. Why only look retrospectively backwards, when you can also look from the history onwards. In fact a hell lot of same guys are playing and watching how things fold out now. They are not those tier-5 Koreans flooding brackets for number 140 or 203 in a random qualifiers, they are the cream-of-the-cream Serral must meet every single tournament where he playes against Koreans. For the top dog It's irrelevant if there are 2000, 100, or 30, if 20 or so at the top 30 now are among the best players ever to play the game.
Trying to not sound too antagonistical here. :D Hahaha, so funny. I was bored at the airport and played around with my multiplier. I would a 300% bonus to put INno on par with Serral in the tournament score. On par. The third on this list... and then you still have the tournament multiplier that basically also mostly favors this area and has another 30% incorporated for most comparisons.
And what you basically are saying at the end is exactly what I am trying to put numbers on at the moment.
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Ah sorry.. quoted myself instead of editing.
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Oh my god.. did it again. Can a mod or admin delete these? I can't seem to find a delete button. Sorry.
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Northern Ireland23673 Posts
On July 24 2024 17:24 UnLarva wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 16:53 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 15:00 UnLarva wrote:On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote:On July 22 2024 15:35 MJG wrote: [quote] Of course it's an opinion - if the debate wasn't opinion driven then we'd already have an absolute answer... The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT. Good you note that Serral has been around very long too. I've that ridiculous mental image (induced by the site) on Maru as some sort of super sc2-toddler in a corner of a playroom of a crowded team house, while little Serral was continuously kicked ass by his brother Protosser on a back seat of their family sedan, when they both practice APM with unplugged keyboards... It is not like Serral would be some kind of newcomer to the scene as a whole. I mean Serral played Rain in 2015 where he won one and lost one match. Given the fact that he already was able to at least take maps of players who some people also throw in as GOATs, implies that Serral, was he born Korean, didn't attend school and also had the support of team houses with their strategy crafting and 12 hours practice regimes, probably wouldn't have fared much worse than Maru when looking at how he outclasses him so much in the same era statistical wis and how Serral kickstarted once school was over. But too many ifs and an abysmal sample size leave too much room to truly pursue this thought in any meaningful way. I have had the feeling that this "Lack of team house environment with 12h/d sweat grinders" - argument as something Serral is lacking and making him better (or worse!!!) for this reason doesn't simply work as I think the environment were Serral grew up (and is living) was (and is) many ways more healthy and balanced than his Korean peers experienced. I think that Serral's environment is buff/perk for his case: supportive family that also set healthy limits, highly competitive (at least first, nearly unsurmountable) setting with his big brother, SC2 as wholesome family experience (journeys to tournaments together as a family), muuuuuuuch muuuuuuuch more peaceful environmental setting (big city vs rural village), sauna, hikes with dog in a woods, less economic dependancies and requirements to perform well, etc. that cultivated Serral to what he became. Serral was luckily born to "the team house family". I mean, Serral looks to me benefitting from exactly those same things that are usually considered as a burden or extra uphill battle for his rise to prominence. Should I say more 'Zen' for him. Korean team house experience should be considered as handicapping factor relative to Sotala's family team house experience. Admittedly I am biased with this take as a fellow Finn, but I share a lot of mental landscape with Serral only because of that. That's why I also think that Serral couldn't care less about going Korea and playing in the GSL (that, no doubt, would increase a lot of it's relative value.) Just for note how I see that topic. Perhaps, it’s hard to know, but good points!
I think it’s a pathway that is healthier, both for individuals and for the wider eSports scene in general. Or at least a game like StarCraft with players spread all over the globe
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On July 25 2024 00:59 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 17:24 UnLarva wrote:On July 24 2024 16:53 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 15:00 UnLarva wrote:On July 24 2024 14:46 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 09:21 rwala wrote:On July 23 2024 13:48 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 05:28 allmotor1 wrote:On July 23 2024 04:34 PremoBeats wrote:On July 23 2024 00:35 Mizenhauer wrote: [quote]
The answer is that Serral is "better" than Maru, but there's a strong case to be made that Maru is "greater" because he's spent more than a decade as a top tier player in basically every metric (what you think of everything beyond the comma varies depending on your evaluation process). So if Serral is "better" than Maru and Maru is "greater" because of him playing for over a decade at top tier level... what about a time when Serral has a decade under his belt too and Maru would not have been hindered by military service at this point? Does Maru still trump him or does Maru's supposed "greater"-ness diminish as the longer these two play, the less it will be relevant in relation (assuming the rest of the statistics stay more or less the same)? Meaning 11vs7 is probably worth more than 14vs10 or 24vs20, right? Btw, I added Mvp's statistics in an answer to you in the GOAT thread. Thing is Maru has been a top player since WOL and been through SC2's peak and all it's iterations. Serral is amazing, but his peak has been at a time when SC2 has been greatly diminished (the pro scene). Also since LOTV, zerg has been overtuned (maybe not currently) but for most of LOTV. Even if we assume that Maru was a top player since WoL (where I think many people suffer from nostalgia bias, if we look at his actual achievements in that period), my point is, that there must be a time, when the argument of him being at the top for longer falls short, assuming he ALWAYS trails behind Serral in comparison. Especially considering that Serral stomped onto the scene in 2018 with no support of a multi million dollar industry behind him or living in team houses since he was 13. My question is: When is that point? Will it never be reached as Korean elitists simply value 2015 so much more? Even if in a direct comparison Maru clearly is worse than Serral? I mean that is fine by me... I simply want people to show their true colors. rwala You have the logic backwards. As more and more top-level pros retire and fewer and fewer young talents enter the game, the less relevant modern periods of domination are for becoming GOAT'ed and the more relevant results of the most competitive era become. The easiest way to understand this is to imagine a future of SCII where it's like a couple dozen players playing in TL StarLeague, Homestory Cup, StarsWar, etc. and Clem literally wins every tournament for a decade. If you think Clem being the GOAT in that circumstance doesn't feel right to you, think about why, and you'll be closer to having a more common sense understanding of what a GOAT is.
This doesn't mean Serral could never be the GOAT, but it does mean that for him to be your GOAT you probably need to place more value on things like consistency, level of dominance, prize winnings, and head-to-head scores than on results in the most competitive era of SCII because quite simply Serral has no such results. By contrast, if results in the most competitive era of SCII is literally the only thing you care about, probably Mvp is your guy (or maybe the other guy who I don't care to mention). Did you read my GOAT article? I accounted for all of that with heavy penalties on Serral who still came out on top by far. Plus, Maru never DOMINATED 2015 either. He was a good player; a wild card at winning. All you said applies to Maru too, as his dominance (mostly behind Serral) started in 2018 as well. Disagree on Mvp: He only had one hyper successful year, when SC2 was still being figured out. He has win rates of less than 50% or 40% in 2012 and 2013. Someone who is so inconsistent can't be GOAT, even subjectively. His hyper successful year was 2011 where the pro scene wasn't even properly established yet. Peak SC2 according to numbers of players, pros and competitiveness is 2013-2015/2016. A lot of the players of that era transitioned into the period of Maru's and Serral's rise though. I am currently working on an era-comparison how these 2015-players fared versus other 2015-players in 2015 and 2018 and their results versus the new talent. This analysis will give us a better understanding what the penalty in comparing these era for post-2018 results should be. And I highly doubt that the 50% penalty I used in my analysis is even remotely fair towards post-2018. But we will see... I read your article and enjoyed it a lot. I appreciated the work you put into it. It's worth thinking of why your analyses discount Mvp so much. Some of these things are just common sense. My personal GOAT pick is Rogue but if you think no one can even subjectively pick Mvp I think you've lost the forest for the trees for sure. I encourage you to engage with my hypo on Clem. I think it'll help give you some perspective. Subjectively, Mvp can be picked... but he didn't play in the most competitive era either, which is an argument most people make when they try to deny Serral. Peak (total player and pro count) was 2013-2015/2016. That is why I dismiss Mvp... but if people want to pick him as their GOAT because of one hypersuccessful year in a pro scene that wasn't really established (which btw, didn't even make it among the best years ever played in the top 5 match win rate wise, and tournament win participation isn't #1 either), be my guest. But then these people shouldn't discount Serral for not playing in the era that wasn't prime either... all I demand is consistency  Well... Serral actually played for a couple of years and defeated many players of the old era. Clem did not. This reason was put into the article exactly because of such a hypothetical. But sure.. if that other guys dominates the same way Serral did but since he was 13 years old like Maru when he started, surpassing Serral's insane statistics, he definitely had to be checked against the others as GOAT. Good you note that Serral has been around very long too. I've that ridiculous mental image (induced by the site) on Maru as some sort of super sc2-toddler in a corner of a playroom of a crowded team house, while little Serral was continuously kicked ass by his brother Protosser on a back seat of their family sedan, when they both practice APM with unplugged keyboards... It is not like Serral would be some kind of newcomer to the scene as a whole. I mean Serral played Rain in 2015 where he won one and lost one match. Given the fact that he already was able to at least take maps of players who some people also throw in as GOATs, implies that Serral, was he born Korean, didn't attend school and also had the support of team houses with their strategy crafting and 12 hours practice regimes, probably wouldn't have fared much worse than Maru when looking at how he outclasses him so much in the same era statistical wis and how Serral kickstarted once school was over. But too many ifs and an abysmal sample size leave too much room to truly pursue this thought in any meaningful way. I have had the feeling that this "Lack of team house environment with 12h/d sweat grinders" - argument as something Serral is lacking and making him better (or worse!!!) for this reason doesn't simply work as I think the environment were Serral grew up (and is living) was (and is) many ways more healthy and balanced than his Korean peers experienced. I think that Serral's environment is buff/perk for his case: supportive family that also set healthy limits, highly competitive (at least first, nearly unsurmountable) setting with his big brother, SC2 as wholesome family experience (journeys to tournaments together as a family), muuuuuuuch muuuuuuuch more peaceful environmental setting (big city vs rural village), sauna, hikes with dog in a woods, less economic dependancies and requirements to perform well, etc. that cultivated Serral to what he became. Serral was luckily born to "the team house family". I mean, Serral looks to me benefitting from exactly those same things that are usually considered as a burden or extra uphill battle for his rise to prominence. Should I say more 'Zen' for him. Korean team house experience should be considered as handicapping factor relative to Sotala's family team house experience. Admittedly I am biased with this take as a fellow Finn, but I share a lot of mental landscape with Serral only because of that. That's why I also think that Serral couldn't care less about going Korea and playing in the GSL (that, no doubt, would increase a lot of it's relative value.) Just for note how I see that topic. Perhaps, it’s hard to know, but good points! I think it’s a pathway that is healthier, both for individuals and for the wider eSports scene in general. Or at least a game like StarCraft with players spread all over the globe
Yeah. Hard to say. It's my gut feeling after all. A single case doesn't create anything statistically meaningful, though it would be interesting to look closely growing environs of other top foreigners to shed some light over the matter: Is there anything cultural-sociological, personality, and family environmental factors that have close resemblance with Serral's case. However, this is clearly out-of-topic in this thread.
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