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Northern Ireland23764 Posts
On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me  - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss
Is this the same Zest whose macro is literally a borderline meme?
I mean he’s great because he’s great at so many other things to compensate, and part of what makes StarCraft so great is that you can prosper with different strengths and weaknesses.
Perfect Protoss? Not even close. He’s not got the micro of a herO or a Parting, those macro fundamentals of a Stats, and I think Trap probably out-averages him across those categories.
Whereas Maru? Yeah. He’s got better macro than anyone, he multitasks better than everyone, his micro is better than all but maybe Byun’s (and even then, his late game technical army control is better). His tactical play and decision making are maybe not #1 but close
Serral is as good, or better at every facet of the game as every other Zerg going.
The (human) perfect Terran and Zerg basically already exist. Maybe not 100% but 90%, the perfect Protoss is like an amalgam of 5 different players.
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United States1798 Posts
On March 21 2024 06:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 03:51 Waxangel wrote:On March 21 2024 03:43 WombaT wrote:
I mean I don’t think it’s impossible Serral wouldn’t have won GSL if he’d been competing there for 6 years, but equally it’s not impossible that I’d woo and marry Sofia Vegata either.
It may be that his environment and work/life balance given his chosen path are just ideal for the guy, but there’s even the frankly terrifying possibility that a Serral forged in the fires of Korea is even stronger.
Firstly Serral has the best win rate versus Korean opposition ever, and by a decent enough margin. Secondly, he generally is only playing the GSL players towards the upper end, good enough to qualify for the big competitions. If he was regularly playing the lower tiers of Korean pros in GSL it’d be even higher.
Looking at his head-to-head match win rates solely against GSL winners/finalists in this span:
Maru - 77%
Trap - 82%
Dark - 65%
Cure - 90%
TY - 71%
Rogue - 53%
Zest - 73%
Classic - 80%
Stats - 69%
While I think people go crazy overboard and say ridiculous things like Serral would sweep it every season or w/e, it’s almost inconceivable to me that he wouldn’t take even one. Even Reynor who is way more streaky and IMO not quite on the same tier I think would probably pull it off at least once.
As a big fan of the game overall, novelty, a huge fan of the GSL and what it’s given over the years it’s absolutely one of my biggest disappointments that getting a few foreigners who could potentially actually win it is accompanied by those said same not playing it regularly.
I think there's a pretty good chance he wins 3-4 tournaments if he played every Code S from 2018-2023 (especially with the weakened pool in the ones after 2022 or so). The thing is, people constantly forget how variance heavy SC2 is when they're trying to do predictions or map out these kinds of hypotheticals. Shit like Serral going 1-4 against DRG in a DHM Last chance group or losing to RagnaroK at IEM Katowice, Maru dropping out of Code S RO32 to Scarlett and Solar, Reynor dropping out of RO32 against whoever in Code S happens semi-frequently. I think the fact that this discussion is taking place during one of Serral's strongest stretches of play is distorting people's view of things—if we had this talk one year before when we were in HIGHEST PARITY ERA EVER™ I feel like people would be making more conservative projections. Indeed there's a ton of variance. You can perform variance reduction by doing comparables, and regressing to other players over extended periods of time. If you adjust his winrate down to Maru's differential with the HIGHEST PARITY ERA EVER (tm, thereafter HPEE) - an idea given to me by Wombat - you still find hypothetical Serral to be a bit above prime Innovation. Regress his number of premier wins to Inno's and others, and you'd find he would have won another 15 premiers during the HPEE. Inno himself acts as a lower bound with 12 premiers so that is plausible. Also Inno had 3 GSLs in that period so again that seems a plausible lower bound. So hypothetically that Serral would be on 30 premier wins if he'd started in 2013 and exhibited similar levels of strength (I'm only counting his current 18 by removing all region-locked ones, which is harsh, but has the Korean factor. Maru is on 21). I have other calcs around, would need to find time to put graphs into Seaborn if you guys are interested.
If you use the word hypothetical enough it transforms everything you're saying into a fairy tale.
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On March 21 2024 02:51 Mizenhauer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 02:46 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 02:33 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:23 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:44 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 01:18 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It’s their own post made in different threads. And ‘fair fucks’ as we say over here, they put in the groundwork for it! You do realize you can look all this up in 15 minutes on aligulac right? Some of it sure, I feel it’s doing a bit of a disservice to the effort to dig certain tidbits out. It’s a hell of a lot more effort than most posts on these topics go to at least From personal diggings, mostly for the purposes of discussing things on this list some are easy to find, some are a bit wonkier and take a little more time. Additionally folks don’t religiously update Liquipedia with feats and tidbits as used to be more common. So just skimming off there isn’t as productive as it may once have been. To my knowledge there’s no easy way to, for example use Aligulac alone to find something like all-time Code S Ro8+ streaks. I knew it was Trap, and thought he’d made the magic 10 to set a ‘Trap award’ after Nestea’s Ro32 and Parting’s Ro16 10+ streaks but if it wasn’t a stat I already knew it wouldn’t be one I’d just stumble across. I do respect the effort, the part I found funny about it was that anybody could do that if they had the inclination, but no one does because it's easier to just say something with no accountability. As for the Trap stuff and whatever else, I just happen to have a spreadsheet with all of that  Luckier for everyone else I just stuck her on Liquipedia ^_^ Aye I mean anyone can do such things and it’s not some Herculean, but I’ll give props nonetheless. I mean in theory everyone could quite easily be civil on the internet but that’s oft not the case I'm pretty sure 95%+ plus haven't read the articles and just "skipped to the predictions so they can trash them" (a classic preview tactic). You're already in elite company if you managed to make it that far.
I bet there's a lot of people who come to comment on these threads without having read the article. However, I also suspect there's a lot of people who read the articles (and possibly some comments), and just appreciate them for what they are, without leaving a comment.
On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss
I feel like I see you writing almost this exact same comment in so many threads (mostly LR threads and the other threads in the GOAT series), and now you got me curious.
Personally I've had a similar feeling when I watch Serral. It seems like if you compare Serral to other WC caliber players there are others who can match his speed. However, his APM economy seems out of this world; any time he has APM to spare he seems to do something useful with it, as if he has an unending mental checklist of tasks to do. Whether it's sending out a burrowed infestor, setting up a runby for next time he attacks or something different - in general he just always seems to do useful things with his actions.
Quite a convoluted way to ask this but what part(s) of Maru's play do you think pushes him past the human threshold?
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Northern Ireland23764 Posts
On March 21 2024 06:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 03:51 Waxangel wrote:On March 21 2024 03:43 WombaT wrote:
I mean I don’t think it’s impossible Serral wouldn’t have won GSL if he’d been competing there for 6 years, but equally it’s not impossible that I’d woo and marry Sofia Vegata either.
It may be that his environment and work/life balance given his chosen path are just ideal for the guy, but there’s even the frankly terrifying possibility that a Serral forged in the fires of Korea is even stronger.
Firstly Serral has the best win rate versus Korean opposition ever, and by a decent enough margin. Secondly, he generally is only playing the GSL players towards the upper end, good enough to qualify for the big competitions. If he was regularly playing the lower tiers of Korean pros in GSL it’d be even higher.
Looking at his head-to-head match win rates solely against GSL winners/finalists in this span:
Maru - 77%
Trap - 82%
Dark - 65%
Cure - 90%
TY - 71%
Rogue - 53%
Zest - 73%
Classic - 80%
Stats - 69%
While I think people go crazy overboard and say ridiculous things like Serral would sweep it every season or w/e, it’s almost inconceivable to me that he wouldn’t take even one. Even Reynor who is way more streaky and IMO not quite on the same tier I think would probably pull it off at least once.
As a big fan of the game overall, novelty, a huge fan of the GSL and what it’s given over the years it’s absolutely one of my biggest disappointments that getting a few foreigners who could potentially actually win it is accompanied by those said same not playing it regularly.
I think there's a pretty good chance he wins 3-4 tournaments if he played every Code S from 2018-2023 (especially with the weakened pool in the ones after 2022 or so). The thing is, people constantly forget how variance heavy SC2 is when they're trying to do predictions or map out these kinds of hypotheticals. Shit like Serral going 1-4 against DRG in a DHM Last chance group or losing to RagnaroK at IEM Katowice, Maru dropping out of Code S RO32 to Scarlett and Solar, Reynor dropping out of RO32 against whoever in Code S happens semi-frequently. I think the fact that this discussion is taking place during one of Serral's strongest stretches of play is distorting people's view of things—if we had this talk one year before when we were in HIGHEST PARITY ERA EVER™ I feel like people would be making more conservative projections. Indeed there's a ton of variance. You can perform variance reduction by doing comparables, and regressing to other players over extended periods of time. If you adjust his winrate down to Maru's differential with the HIGHEST PARITY ERA EVER (tm, thereafter HPEE) - an idea given to me by Wombat - you still find hypothetical Serral to be a bit above prime Innovation. Regress his number of premier wins to Inno's and others, and you'd find he would have won another 15 premiers during the HPEE. Inno himself acts as a lower bound with 12 premiers so that is plausible. Also Inno had 3 GSLs in that period so again that seems a plausible lower bound. So hypothetically that Serral would be on 30 premier wins if he'd started in 2013 and exhibited similar levels of strength (I'm only counting his current 18 by removing all region-locked ones, which is harsh, but has the Korean factor. Maru is on 21). I have other calcs around, would need to find time to put graphs into Seaborn if you guys are interested.
Glad at least one of my ideas landed! Intrigued to see some calculations to
As an aside I do genuinely implore people to go download the reps, and watch the Ragushet [sic] series in the recent Katowice and properly stop/pause, move around between the two players’ perspective at one’s leisure.
Take a wee pause every so often and ponder ‘was that the right decision for that scenario’ for the last 10/15 seconds or whatever, and ‘was that well executed?’ I am sad enough to have done this
And like invariably it’s yes on everything, the level is unbelievable in that set, like actually absurd high level of StarCraft
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On March 21 2024 06:16 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss Is this the same Zest whose macro is literally a borderline meme? I mean he’s great because he’s great at so many other things to compensate, and part of what makes StarCraft so great is that you can prosper with different strengths and weaknesses. Perfect Protoss? Not even close. He’s not got the micro of a herO or a Parting, those macro fundamentals of a Stats, and I think Trap probably out-averages him across those categories. Whereas Maru? Yeah. He’s got better macro than anyone, he multitasks better than everyone, his micro is better than all but maybe Byun’s (and even then, his late game technical army control is better). His tactical play and decision making are maybe not #1 but close Serral is as good, or better at every facet of the game as every other Zerg going. The (human) perfect Terran and Zerg basically already exist. Maybe not 100% but 90%, the perfect Protoss is like an amalgam of 5 different players.
A chimera of Maru and Gumiho would be better than Maru IMO. And one of Serral and Rogue better than Serral. The top Protoss I am not so sure, perhaps a chimera of Stats and sOs.
Who of those would win in a Maruho vs Serrogue vs StatsOs tournament? Clearly Roguerral.
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France12758 Posts
On March 21 2024 06:26 EquilasH wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 02:51 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:46 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 02:33 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:23 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:44 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 01:18 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It’s their own post made in different threads. And ‘fair fucks’ as we say over here, they put in the groundwork for it! You do realize you can look all this up in 15 minutes on aligulac right? Some of it sure, I feel it’s doing a bit of a disservice to the effort to dig certain tidbits out. It’s a hell of a lot more effort than most posts on these topics go to at least From personal diggings, mostly for the purposes of discussing things on this list some are easy to find, some are a bit wonkier and take a little more time. Additionally folks don’t religiously update Liquipedia with feats and tidbits as used to be more common. So just skimming off there isn’t as productive as it may once have been. To my knowledge there’s no easy way to, for example use Aligulac alone to find something like all-time Code S Ro8+ streaks. I knew it was Trap, and thought he’d made the magic 10 to set a ‘Trap award’ after Nestea’s Ro32 and Parting’s Ro16 10+ streaks but if it wasn’t a stat I already knew it wouldn’t be one I’d just stumble across. I do respect the effort, the part I found funny about it was that anybody could do that if they had the inclination, but no one does because it's easier to just say something with no accountability. As for the Trap stuff and whatever else, I just happen to have a spreadsheet with all of that Luckier for everyone else I just stuck her on Liquipedia ^_^ Aye I mean anyone can do such things and it’s not some Herculean, but I’ll give props nonetheless. I mean in theory everyone could quite easily be civil on the internet but that’s oft not the case I'm pretty sure 95%+ plus haven't read the articles and just "skipped to the predictions so they can trash them" (a classic preview tactic). You're already in elite company if you managed to make it that far. I bet there's a lot of people who come to comment on these threads without having read the article. However, I also suspect there's a lot of people who read the articles (and possibly some comments), and just appreciate them for what they are, without leaving a comment. Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss I feel like I see you writing almost this exact same comment in so many threads (mostly LR threads and the other threads in the GOAT series), and now you got me curious. Personally I've had a similar feeling when I watch Serral. It seems like if you compare Serral to other WC caliber players there are others who can match his speed. However, his APM economy seems out of this world; any time he has APM to spare he seems to do something useful with it, as if he has an unending mental checklist of tasks to do. Whether it's sending out a burrowed infestor, setting up a runby for next time he attacks or something different - in general he just always seems to do useful things with his actions. Quite a convoluted way to ask this but what part(s) of Maru's play do you think pushes him past the human threshold?
Peak Maru? Multitasking / macro / micro otherworldly, an ability to both play at incredible speed yet perfectly plan what units / sim city / whatever he should do.
His defense in general is borderline impossible (so many times where you are like: wut?) but back in the days he was like as fast as Clem but even more precise
There are other players where I was like: « incredible », but not as many times as Maru where my jaw dropped
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United States1798 Posts
On March 21 2024 06:48 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:26 EquilasH wrote:On March 21 2024 02:51 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:46 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 02:33 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:23 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:44 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 01:18 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It’s their own post made in different threads. And ‘fair fucks’ as we say over here, they put in the groundwork for it! You do realize you can look all this up in 15 minutes on aligulac right? Some of it sure, I feel it’s doing a bit of a disservice to the effort to dig certain tidbits out. It’s a hell of a lot more effort than most posts on these topics go to at least From personal diggings, mostly for the purposes of discussing things on this list some are easy to find, some are a bit wonkier and take a little more time. Additionally folks don’t religiously update Liquipedia with feats and tidbits as used to be more common. So just skimming off there isn’t as productive as it may once have been. To my knowledge there’s no easy way to, for example use Aligulac alone to find something like all-time Code S Ro8+ streaks. I knew it was Trap, and thought he’d made the magic 10 to set a ‘Trap award’ after Nestea’s Ro32 and Parting’s Ro16 10+ streaks but if it wasn’t a stat I already knew it wouldn’t be one I’d just stumble across. I do respect the effort, the part I found funny about it was that anybody could do that if they had the inclination, but no one does because it's easier to just say something with no accountability. As for the Trap stuff and whatever else, I just happen to have a spreadsheet with all of that Luckier for everyone else I just stuck her on Liquipedia ^_^ Aye I mean anyone can do such things and it’s not some Herculean, but I’ll give props nonetheless. I mean in theory everyone could quite easily be civil on the internet but that’s oft not the case I'm pretty sure 95%+ plus haven't read the articles and just "skipped to the predictions so they can trash them" (a classic preview tactic). You're already in elite company if you managed to make it that far. I bet there's a lot of people who come to comment on these threads without having read the article. However, I also suspect there's a lot of people who read the articles (and possibly some comments), and just appreciate them for what they are, without leaving a comment. On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss I feel like I see you writing almost this exact same comment in so many threads (mostly LR threads and the other threads in the GOAT series), and now you got me curious. Personally I've had a similar feeling when I watch Serral. It seems like if you compare Serral to other WC caliber players there are others who can match his speed. However, his APM economy seems out of this world; any time he has APM to spare he seems to do something useful with it, as if he has an unending mental checklist of tasks to do. Whether it's sending out a burrowed infestor, setting up a runby for next time he attacks or something different - in general he just always seems to do useful things with his actions. Quite a convoluted way to ask this but what part(s) of Maru's play do you think pushes him past the human threshold? Peak Maru? Multitasking / macro / micro otherworldly, an ability to both play at incredible speed yet perfectly plan what units / sim city / whatever he should do. His defense in general is borderline impossible (so many times where you are like: wut?) but back in the days he was like as fast as Clem but even more precise There are other players where I was like: « incredible », but not as many times as Maru where my jaw dropped
I'll forever remember the Maru vs soO game on Neon Violet Square when the game crashed and soO opted to concede rather than continue the game from the replay.
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On March 21 2024 06:18 Mizenhauer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:15 MyLovelyLurker wrote:On March 21 2024 03:51 Waxangel wrote:On March 21 2024 03:43 WombaT wrote:
I mean I don’t think it’s impossible Serral wouldn’t have won GSL if he’d been competing there for 6 years, but equally it’s not impossible that I’d woo and marry Sofia Vegata either.
It may be that his environment and work/life balance given his chosen path are just ideal for the guy, but there’s even the frankly terrifying possibility that a Serral forged in the fires of Korea is even stronger.
Firstly Serral has the best win rate versus Korean opposition ever, and by a decent enough margin. Secondly, he generally is only playing the GSL players towards the upper end, good enough to qualify for the big competitions. If he was regularly playing the lower tiers of Korean pros in GSL it’d be even higher.
Looking at his head-to-head match win rates solely against GSL winners/finalists in this span:
Maru - 77%
Trap - 82%
Dark - 65%
Cure - 90%
TY - 71%
Rogue - 53%
Zest - 73%
Classic - 80%
Stats - 69%
While I think people go crazy overboard and say ridiculous things like Serral would sweep it every season or w/e, it’s almost inconceivable to me that he wouldn’t take even one. Even Reynor who is way more streaky and IMO not quite on the same tier I think would probably pull it off at least once.
As a big fan of the game overall, novelty, a huge fan of the GSL and what it’s given over the years it’s absolutely one of my biggest disappointments that getting a few foreigners who could potentially actually win it is accompanied by those said same not playing it regularly.
I think there's a pretty good chance he wins 3-4 tournaments if he played every Code S from 2018-2023 (especially with the weakened pool in the ones after 2022 or so). The thing is, people constantly forget how variance heavy SC2 is when they're trying to do predictions or map out these kinds of hypotheticals. Shit like Serral going 1-4 against DRG in a DHM Last chance group or losing to RagnaroK at IEM Katowice, Maru dropping out of Code S RO32 to Scarlett and Solar, Reynor dropping out of RO32 against whoever in Code S happens semi-frequently. I think the fact that this discussion is taking place during one of Serral's strongest stretches of play is distorting people's view of things—if we had this talk one year before when we were in HIGHEST PARITY ERA EVER™ I feel like people would be making more conservative projections. Indeed there's a ton of variance. You can perform variance reduction by doing comparables, and regressing to other players over extended periods of time. If you adjust his winrate down to Maru's differential with the HIGHEST PARITY ERA EVER (tm, thereafter HPEE) - an idea given to me by Wombat - you still find hypothetical Serral to be a bit above prime Innovation. Regress his number of premier wins to Inno's and others, and you'd find he would have won another 15 premiers during the HPEE. Inno himself acts as a lower bound with 12 premiers so that is plausible. Also Inno had 3 GSLs in that period so again that seems a plausible lower bound. So hypothetically that Serral would be on 30 premier wins if he'd started in 2013 and exhibited similar levels of strength (I'm only counting his current 18 by removing all region-locked ones, which is harsh, but has the Korean factor. Maru is on 21). I have other calcs around, would need to find time to put graphs into Seaborn if you guys are interested. If you use the word hypothetical enough it transforms everything you're saying into a fairy tale.
Well, it's perfectly acceptable - and in fact standard - scientific practice to 1. posit assumptions and 2. perform scenario analysis or central tendency calcs based on said assumptions. From Wax's post I thought it was clear context that the fun question was 'what would have happened had an equally win-ny Serral landed in Korea circa 2012 rather than going to high school'. You can then make reasonable progress towards variance reduction (not elimination !) and probabilistic lower bounds. In plain English that timeline does not exist and never will; this is orthogonal to your analysis, and does not aim at invalidating it in any shape or form.
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On March 21 2024 06:48 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:26 EquilasH wrote:On March 21 2024 02:51 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:46 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 02:33 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:23 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:44 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 01:18 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It’s their own post made in different threads. And ‘fair fucks’ as we say over here, they put in the groundwork for it! You do realize you can look all this up in 15 minutes on aligulac right? Some of it sure, I feel it’s doing a bit of a disservice to the effort to dig certain tidbits out. It’s a hell of a lot more effort than most posts on these topics go to at least From personal diggings, mostly for the purposes of discussing things on this list some are easy to find, some are a bit wonkier and take a little more time. Additionally folks don’t religiously update Liquipedia with feats and tidbits as used to be more common. So just skimming off there isn’t as productive as it may once have been. To my knowledge there’s no easy way to, for example use Aligulac alone to find something like all-time Code S Ro8+ streaks. I knew it was Trap, and thought he’d made the magic 10 to set a ‘Trap award’ after Nestea’s Ro32 and Parting’s Ro16 10+ streaks but if it wasn’t a stat I already knew it wouldn’t be one I’d just stumble across. I do respect the effort, the part I found funny about it was that anybody could do that if they had the inclination, but no one does because it's easier to just say something with no accountability. As for the Trap stuff and whatever else, I just happen to have a spreadsheet with all of that Luckier for everyone else I just stuck her on Liquipedia ^_^ Aye I mean anyone can do such things and it’s not some Herculean, but I’ll give props nonetheless. I mean in theory everyone could quite easily be civil on the internet but that’s oft not the case I'm pretty sure 95%+ plus haven't read the articles and just "skipped to the predictions so they can trash them" (a classic preview tactic). You're already in elite company if you managed to make it that far. I bet there's a lot of people who come to comment on these threads without having read the article. However, I also suspect there's a lot of people who read the articles (and possibly some comments), and just appreciate them for what they are, without leaving a comment. On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss I feel like I see you writing almost this exact same comment in so many threads (mostly LR threads and the other threads in the GOAT series), and now you got me curious. Personally I've had a similar feeling when I watch Serral. It seems like if you compare Serral to other WC caliber players there are others who can match his speed. However, his APM economy seems out of this world; any time he has APM to spare he seems to do something useful with it, as if he has an unending mental checklist of tasks to do. Whether it's sending out a burrowed infestor, setting up a runby for next time he attacks or something different - in general he just always seems to do useful things with his actions. Quite a convoluted way to ask this but what part(s) of Maru's play do you think pushes him past the human threshold? Peak Maru? Multitasking / macro / micro otherworldly, an ability to both play at incredible speed yet perfectly plan what units / sim city / whatever he should do. His defense in general is borderline impossible (so many times where you are like: wut?) but back in the days he was like as fast as Clem but even more precise There are other players where I was like: « incredible », but not as many times as Maru where my jaw dropped
I can definitely agree with his defense being borderline impossible. I've been incredibly impressed with his defensive play more times than I can count.
Any chance you remember a game that you can link, illustrating the precision (I'm assuming you mean mouse precision and not build order precision, unit movement, etc.) part? Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention to that specific aspect of his play when watching but I've thought for a long time that Clem had the best mouse precision out of all the pro's.
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I think some of the problem presented with debaitng GOAT post-proleageu era is that there is just so much less player pool and competition going on.
in past, when there were tons of players in pro player pool and constant cycle of progamers, a lot of progaming lifespan was over by time progamers were entering mid-20s just from sheer amount of injury/load/new competition difference to newer generation of players. But now, the playerpool has shrunk to point that the younger side of progamers in sc2 are all approaching mid20s and there are no longer new players coming in at least on korean side.
this is same exact issue offered in BW as well, albeit 3-4 years older- and they don't really factor in post-proleague era in GOAT debates precisely due to this problem even if they still maintain a large pro playerpool there. It's closed circuit and no more new cycle coming in.
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Northern Ireland23764 Posts
On March 21 2024 06:26 EquilasH wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 02:51 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:46 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 02:33 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:23 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:44 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 01:18 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It’s their own post made in different threads. And ‘fair fucks’ as we say over here, they put in the groundwork for it! You do realize you can look all this up in 15 minutes on aligulac right? Some of it sure, I feel it’s doing a bit of a disservice to the effort to dig certain tidbits out. It’s a hell of a lot more effort than most posts on these topics go to at least From personal diggings, mostly for the purposes of discussing things on this list some are easy to find, some are a bit wonkier and take a little more time. Additionally folks don’t religiously update Liquipedia with feats and tidbits as used to be more common. So just skimming off there isn’t as productive as it may once have been. To my knowledge there’s no easy way to, for example use Aligulac alone to find something like all-time Code S Ro8+ streaks. I knew it was Trap, and thought he’d made the magic 10 to set a ‘Trap award’ after Nestea’s Ro32 and Parting’s Ro16 10+ streaks but if it wasn’t a stat I already knew it wouldn’t be one I’d just stumble across. I do respect the effort, the part I found funny about it was that anybody could do that if they had the inclination, but no one does because it's easier to just say something with no accountability. As for the Trap stuff and whatever else, I just happen to have a spreadsheet with all of that Luckier for everyone else I just stuck her on Liquipedia ^_^ Aye I mean anyone can do such things and it’s not some Herculean, but I’ll give props nonetheless. I mean in theory everyone could quite easily be civil on the internet but that’s oft not the case I'm pretty sure 95%+ plus haven't read the articles and just "skipped to the predictions so they can trash them" (a classic preview tactic). You're already in elite company if you managed to make it that far. I bet there's a lot of people who come to comment on these threads without having read the article. However, I also suspect there's a lot of people who read the articles (and possibly some comments), and just appreciate them for what they are, without leaving a comment. Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss I feel like I see you writing almost this exact same comment in so many threads (mostly LR threads and the other threads in the GOAT series), and now you got me curious. Personally I've had a similar feeling when I watch Serral. It seems like if you compare Serral to other WC caliber players there are others who can match his speed. However, his APM economy seems out of this world; any time he has APM to spare he seems to do something useful with it, as if he has an unending mental checklist of tasks to do. Whether it's sending out a burrowed infestor, setting up a runby for next time he attacks or something different - in general he just always seems to do useful things with his actions. Quite a convoluted way to ask this but what part(s) of Maru's play do you think pushes him past the human threshold?
As I’ve recommended prior, grab a replay and properly watch at your own pace.
Serral’s bloody fast, but he’s usually doing something productive, and more often than not it’s the rightproductive thing to be doing. Maru’s also phenomenal in this regard too, although I think a bit is more immediately obvious and flashy just in terms of micro especially.
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France12758 Posts
On March 21 2024 07:23 EquilasH wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:48 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 06:26 EquilasH wrote:On March 21 2024 02:51 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:46 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 02:33 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:23 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:44 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 01:18 WombaT wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:
[quote]
"Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?"
To the KR prep elitists, yes.
Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something?
Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It’s their own post made in different threads. And ‘fair fucks’ as we say over here, they put in the groundwork for it! You do realize you can look all this up in 15 minutes on aligulac right? Some of it sure, I feel it’s doing a bit of a disservice to the effort to dig certain tidbits out. It’s a hell of a lot more effort than most posts on these topics go to at least From personal diggings, mostly for the purposes of discussing things on this list some are easy to find, some are a bit wonkier and take a little more time. Additionally folks don’t religiously update Liquipedia with feats and tidbits as used to be more common. So just skimming off there isn’t as productive as it may once have been. To my knowledge there’s no easy way to, for example use Aligulac alone to find something like all-time Code S Ro8+ streaks. I knew it was Trap, and thought he’d made the magic 10 to set a ‘Trap award’ after Nestea’s Ro32 and Parting’s Ro16 10+ streaks but if it wasn’t a stat I already knew it wouldn’t be one I’d just stumble across. I do respect the effort, the part I found funny about it was that anybody could do that if they had the inclination, but no one does because it's easier to just say something with no accountability. As for the Trap stuff and whatever else, I just happen to have a spreadsheet with all of that Luckier for everyone else I just stuck her on Liquipedia ^_^ Aye I mean anyone can do such things and it’s not some Herculean, but I’ll give props nonetheless. I mean in theory everyone could quite easily be civil on the internet but that’s oft not the case I'm pretty sure 95%+ plus haven't read the articles and just "skipped to the predictions so they can trash them" (a classic preview tactic). You're already in elite company if you managed to make it that far. I bet there's a lot of people who come to comment on these threads without having read the article. However, I also suspect there's a lot of people who read the articles (and possibly some comments), and just appreciate them for what they are, without leaving a comment. On March 21 2024 04:41 Poopi wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. It is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. It’s kinda unfair to compare him to peak Maru though, as Maru has pushed the skill ceiling above the human threshold multiple times, that’s why he was called the fourth race. I am pretty sure that Zest would be higher in the list if balance went other way in LotV, he is the perfect Protoss I feel like I see you writing almost this exact same comment in so many threads (mostly LR threads and the other threads in the GOAT series), and now you got me curious. Personally I've had a similar feeling when I watch Serral. It seems like if you compare Serral to other WC caliber players there are others who can match his speed. However, his APM economy seems out of this world; any time he has APM to spare he seems to do something useful with it, as if he has an unending mental checklist of tasks to do. Whether it's sending out a burrowed infestor, setting up a runby for next time he attacks or something different - in general he just always seems to do useful things with his actions. Quite a convoluted way to ask this but what part(s) of Maru's play do you think pushes him past the human threshold? Peak Maru? Multitasking / macro / micro otherworldly, an ability to both play at incredible speed yet perfectly plan what units / sim city / whatever he should do. His defense in general is borderline impossible (so many times where you are like: wut?) but back in the days he was like as fast as Clem but even more precise There are other players where I was like: « incredible », but not as many times as Maru where my jaw dropped I can definitely agree with his defense being borderline impossible. I've been incredibly impressed with his defensive play more times than I can count. Any chance you remember a game that you can link, illustrating the precision (I'm assuming you mean mouse precision and not build order precision, unit movement, etc.) part? Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention to that specific aspect of his play when watching but I've thought for a long time that Clem had the best mouse precision out of all the pro's.
I don’t have a specific game in mind, but I guess a replay would be better than nothing, albeit the best would have been to see him play earlier in his career in first PoV with mouse movement.
From what you could see in tournaments with PoV on at times, or in his rare streams, he has a low mouse sense and is not doing « twitchy fast » mouse movements but rather very precise / as little movement as possible.
Clem streams more so it’s easier to see him first pov, and what’s pretty impressive is Clem’s ability to very quickly micro efficiently, get his screen back home if needed super quickly then getting back to the micro needs.
The main difference (although Clem has improved in this regard) with Maru is more in « what to do / build » to have the perfect setup. Maru seems able to properly assess by himself the necessary buildings to make the defensive style work in TvZ for example, while other terrans like Cure or Clem took more time to manage to do it.
Serral on the other hand is super strong mechanically, but his two main strengths imo are his ability to deeply understand what is the optimal play in most situations (and how to scout properly), and an impressive army control, with or without spell casters, that allows him to take pretty good fights even in match-ups like late game ZvP, which could be tricky.
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On March 21 2024 06:06 Xamo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. I t is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. I feel similarly. Also Maru being a beast in TvT vs Serral having ZvZ as his worst match-up does not help. Why is Serral not so good when balance is not an issue? The answer is subjective...
Pretty sure that the answer is that Serral is playing his mirrors against Reynor, Rogue and Dark and Maru isn't. No offense to my hype champ Oliveira.
Seriously, if you look back at Maru's LotV career, TvT only becomes his best matchup after Innovation and Ty are gone. Before that his TvZ was stronger than his TvT. As far as I recall, it's Ty who was known as the master of TvT.
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Wow this was unexpected... I only watch super majors but in the past x years all I've read is "Serral wins this, Serral wins that" so I thought he would be #1 for sure. But I know Maru won a lot in the beginning, loved his Barracks rushes in the WoL beta.
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Has Miz posted the reason why dark is not in list?
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On March 21 2024 09:49 Freezard wrote:
Wow this was unexpected... I only watch super majors but in the past x years all I've read is "Serral wins this, Serral wins that" so I thought he would be #1 for sure. But I know Maru won a lot in the beginning, loved his Barracks rushes in the WoL beta.
I'm sure Maru rushed a lot of Barracks too, but part of me really hopes you've confused him with Maka :D.
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I haven't got time for TL lately, but it is really unbelievable. If Maru is the GOAT, then how can you refer to someone who is better than the GOAT? GOAT father? GOAT Serral?
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On March 21 2024 12:54 shakigami wrote:
I haven't got time for TL lately, but it is really unbelievable. If Maru is the GOAT, then how can you refer to someone who is better than the GOAT? GOAT father? GOAT Serral?
Quote from Adrian Goldsworthy's book In The Name of Rome, following Livy:
[Scipio*] Africanus asked who, in Hannibal's opinion, was the greatest general of all time. Hannibal replied, 'Alexander [The Great*]... because with small force he routed armies of countless numbers, and because he traversed the remotest lands...' Asked whom he placed second, Hannibal said: 'Pyrrhus. He was the first to teach the art of laying out a camp. Besides that, no one has ever shown nicer judgement in choosing his ground, or in disposing his forces. He also had the art of winning men to his side...' When Africanus followed up by asking whom he ranked third, Hannibal unhesitantingly chose himself. Scipio bursts out laughing at this, and said: "What would you be saying if you had defeated me?'
'In that case,' replied Hannibal, 'I should certainly put myself before Alexander and before Pyrrhus - in fact before all other generals!' This reply, with its elaborate Punic subtlety... affected Scipio deeply, because Hannibal had set him apart from the general run of commanders, as one whose worth was beyond calculation.
The story maybe apocryphal, but such a judgement was certainly not undeserved.
Example of Goat debate from over two millenias ago.
[*clarifications mine]
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On March 21 2024 13:24 UnLarva wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 12:54 shakigami wrote:
I haven't got time for TL lately, but it is really unbelievable. If Maru is the GOAT, then how can you refer to someone who is better than the GOAT? GOAT father? GOAT Serral? Quote from Adrian Goldsworthy's book In The Name of Rome, following Livy: [Scipio*] Africanus asked who, in Hannibal's opinion, was the greatest general of all time. Hannibal replied, 'Alexander [The Great*]... because with small force he routed armies of countless numbers, and because he traversed the remotest lands...' Asked whom he placed second, Hannibal said: 'Pyrrhus. He was the first to teach the art of laying out a camp. Besides that, no one has ever shown nicer judgement in choosing his ground, or in disposing his forces. He also had the art of winning men to his side...' When Africanus followed up by asking whom he ranked third, Hannibal unhesitantingly chose himself. Scipio bursts out laughing at this, and said: "What would you be saying if you had defeated me?'
'In that case,' replied Hannibal, 'I should certainly put myself before Alexander and before Pyrrhus - in fact before all other generals!' This reply, with its elaborate Punic subtlety... affected Scipio deeply, because Hannibal had set him apart from the general run of commanders, as one whose worth was beyond calculation.
The story maybe apocryphal, but such a judgement was certainly not undeserved.
Example of Goat debate from over two millenias ago. [*clarifications mine]
Lmao i love whenever you quote/source literature/research and stuff, some of the funniest posts in these threads
On March 21 2024 09:10 Fanatic-Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:06 Xamo wrote:On March 21 2024 04:35 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 03:02 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 02:57 goldensail wrote:On March 21 2024 01:58 Comedy wrote:On March 21 2024 01:15 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 01:07 PremoBeats wrote:I seriously wonder how much ratios had to be distorted to come up with this conclusion. While I was lying sick in bed, I was bored and took my time to analyze StarCraft2 data. I made some excel sheets, typed in the numbers and what I saw was absolutely insane at times. So here I share the statistics I found and hope you enjoy this little summary I wrote, after the GOAT debate was settled - at least for me - There is a player who achieved the Triple Crown twice, which only 2 other players achieved (MVP being the other). - There is a player who has the highest win rate vs top Korean players in 5 years out of 13 StarCraft2 years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023) - by far the most dominant. - There is a player who won the world championship twice (most wins among two others) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against at least Top 100 players (47 consecutive wins - 12th of May 2018 till 6th of October 2018) - There is a player who holds the longest winning streak against top Koreans (19 consecutive wins 17th of May 2023 till 3rd of August 2023; 2nd place the same player with 18 consecutive wins 4th of August 2018 till 1st of May 2019) - There is a player who achieved an over 90% match win rate in a year (2023) overall - which no one else ever achieved (The closest is Maru with 76% also in 2023) - There is a player who achieved an over 73% (73,24%) game win rate in a year (2023) vs Koreans, which no one else ever achieved (closest is Serral with 69,86% in 2018 and Maru’s 69,44% also in 2023). - There is a player who achieved an over 85% (!!!!) match win rate in three years (2018, 2020, 2023) vs Koreans. The next best other players being Maru with 78% in 2023, Serral with 76,76% in 2019 and herO with 74% in 2017. - There is a player who has by far the most Premier Tournaments wins with top Korean Participation (16) and overall (25) - There is a player who has NO negative win rate vs ANY pro player since his first Premier Tournament win in 2015 which he played on a regular basis (at least 10 games) - which no one else ever achieved Here are these player’s records against the top Koreans (wins:Korean player wins: draws): vs Maru: 13:4:2 vs Dark: 8:5:1 vs GuMiho: 10:4:0 vs Solar: 16:7:1 vs Cure: 17:3:0 vs ByuN: 12:5:0 vs Classic: 8:2:0 vs Bunny: 9:2:0 vs stats: 9:4:0 vs soO: 8:4:0 vs Innovation: 16:8:0 vs Rogue: 8:6:0 vs Trap: 14:3:0 vs Zest: 10:5:0 And here the records vs some top world players : vs Reynor: 31:16:0 vs MaxPax: 18:4:0 vs Heromarine: 26:4:0 That player has been so dominant since his rise to the top in 2018 in Seoul that he won more tournaments - with participation of the best Koreans in the world - in 6 years of playing StarCraft 2 than all players who have been present among the top players for much longer. That player is Serral. I have no idea how anyone can deny that Serral is the GOAT of StarCraft 2. Not one player comes even close to such a dominance over such a long period of time while at the same time amassing more important trophies in less time than anyone else. Serral's win rate vs his weakest matchup (Zerg) is higher than most pro's overall win rates. To anyone arguing flash = SC2 GOAT: Flash never had win rates that even come close to Serral's and had lower win rates than Innovation at time. He also was only present in SC2 for around 2 years. He most definitely is the SC GOAT though. To anyone arguing Innovation/Maru: These two both failed to show up on the really big stages. Maru only ever got a 2nd place at Worlds with his 2023 defeat against Oliveira. He didn’t do what sOs, ROgue or Serral did: Go to a big stage, where the best of the world compete and win. The same is true for Innovation. Both Maru and him falter when competition from outside of Korea is present/when the big stage calls. Also both have lower win rates vs the top players and less achievements. To anyone arguing sOs: sOs, who is a 2 time world champion, only has 5 premier tournament wins. If you consider Rogue and Serral, who also are in the debate, sOs falls short. The same holds true as for Innovation and Maru. Less achievements, less dominance. Rogue has won 11 premier tournaments from 2017 to 2022. He, as well as Serral, won 2 Worlds. Now let’s bring Serral into the equation. Out of his 25 premier tournament wins which span from 2018 to 2023, 16 are with top Korean participation, Serral won 2 World Championships. Him and Rogue in my opinion are the only two players who are consistent and showed up when the best of the world are present. They have achieved similar high end feats. BUT: Serral has way more Premier Tournament wins (with top Korean participation and yet even more without) and was more dominant in his win rates and records versus other Korean players. To people arguing that Serral never won a GSL, I have to reply “So what”? He played the best of the best from GSL and defeated them time and again (see record vs these players and overall win rate vs Koreans above). Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean? And at the same taking Premier titles away from players who now claim them? If anything, Serral's dominance would have been EVEN MORE apparent for the aforementioned reasons. Plus, Serral even went to Korea twice and both times won the GSL vs Worlds where the best of the GSL participated. He is able to beat these players and he has done so on Korean soil without being Korean. So if all people have to offer is: “Meh, GSL” it simply seems like a last straw to hold on to. That argument sounds a little bit like this: Real Madrid (Serral) who defeated all Premier League teams (Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool etc.) in the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) is not better than Liverpool because it never played in the Premier League. The argument is absurd. The Premier League (Korea) sends its best teams (Maru, Dark, Rogue) to the Champions League (GSL vs World, World Championship, etc.) and these best teams get beaten by Madrid (Serral). No one in their right mind would argue that Madrid isn’t the best team in the world when they won the Champions League, simply because it didn't play versus Wolverhampton. This argument makes no sense at all. All this is not even taking into account that out of the last 6 years, the world champion only came out of Korea 2 times. Meaning yes, Korea still has the broadest and best player base, but at the top, there are several other players from around the world who are able to show them their limits. Serral is also probably the best player to prepare for his opponents as Katowice 2024 has shown yet again. Does anybody in their right mind think that such a format would be worse for Serral? Plus, one has to keep in mind that Serral did all this without TeamHouses or the Korean infrastructure which was way beyond anything that is even present nowadays in Europe. Anyways, these are my thoughts. Share statistics, if you disagree "Does anyone seriously believe Serral would not have won the GSL if he was born Korean?" To the KR prep elitists, yes. Also, great post but i think i read this somewhere by another TL user. Did you steal their post or something? Also, looking at the poll someone started a few pages ago, seems like the votes are in favor of Serral 2:1 so maybe the majority of TL actually agrees with Serral as #1 but it just looks more disputed going by the comments It seems unfathomable to be of the opinion that serral would not have won gsl if he entered the tournament. He'd have been the #1 favorite to win GSL for any GSL after he rose to prominence, if he had just participated. What the other poster said, someone like maru should actually consider himself lucky that serral did not come to korea to take his lunch money. When Serral "rose to prominence" in 2018, he lost to Maru 0:3 in WESG semi-finals. So no, he wouldn't have been the #1 favorite back when Maru had the 4-peat. Nowadays he would be, with the best Koreans aging, injured or retired, and when Zerg's potential is being further exploited. I quote Rogue from 2019 after winning GSL: "once I amass infestors, there's nothing Protoss can do...I barely practiced but still won so looks like Zerg is OP, map pool is also good for Zerg". Link below (use translator): www.dailyesports.comThe infestor problem persisted and the recent abominations just made it painfully obvious. Why did the balance council not fix them? It has been obvious to me as a mere enthusiast for years and looks like Rogue agrees. When Zerg has an obvious balance advantage does Serral's performance record count at face value? So no, I'm not convinced Serral is a better SC2 player than everyone else. He's a very good player who picked the strongest race. You can disagree, but at least you know where I'm coming from in terms of why Serral's win stats don't convince me, and I suspect I'm not the only one who thinks this way. I'm happy to agree to disagree. I've talked to about half a dozen pros who are of the opinion that Serral translates just fine to the other races. He's one of the fastest players, one of the best multitaskers, one of the best at gathering information and one of the best at decision making. The idea that Serral gets knocked for being Zerg is pretty comical, especially since he has out performed every Zerg (who have the same advantages he has) since becoming a full-time pro. I don't deny Serral is "one of the best" at all these things, I'm merely questioning whether he would be dominant had he not had balance in his favor. For example, is he as fast/as good in multi-tasking as peak Maru? And it's debatable whether he has "out performed every Zerg since becoming full time" - certainly not the case in 2021 vs. Rogue head-to-head (1W5L), and Rogue was older/close to retirement. If Washington Wizards' MJ takes out Kobe one-on-one that would be saying something. I know I'm cherry picking the time period but merely debating the statement. I t is not my intention to push down Serral unfairly. What I do wish, is that there had been better game balance so we could truly see players bring out their best on a level playing field (or hypothetically, if players were required to play random, it would be difficult to argue against results). There would've been less bitterness in these discussions and more celebration, which I imagine is what this series is meant to achieve. I feel similarly. Also Maru being a beast in TvT vs Serral having ZvZ as his worst match-up does not help. Why is Serral not so good when balance is not an issue? The answer is subjective... Pretty sure that the answer is that Serral is playing his mirrors against Reynor, Rogue and Dark and Maru isn't. No offense to my hype champ Oliveira. Seriously, if you look back at Maru's LotV career, TvT only becomes his best matchup after Innovation and Ty are gone. Before that his TvZ was stronger than his TvT. As far as I recall, it's Ty who was known as the master of TvT.
Oh shit you're totally right lol. Yeah TvT vs Cure, Oliveira, Byun etc. just isn't the same thing. Even against Ty and Innovation, the 2 of them aren't as peak as Rogue Dark.
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TY was good but everyone knows sKyHigh is the TvT GOAT.
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EPT
