EPTWho will win IEM Katowice 2024?
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TL.net Bot
TL.net135 Posts
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angry_maia
331 Posts
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Waxangel
United States33605 Posts
On January 26 2024 06:59 angry_maia wrote: i mean, the objectively correctly pick HAS to be Serral. Not a guarantee he will win, but it'd be crazy to argue that any individual person is more likely than him to win it all. Checked betting site to see what the odds are like, and Serral has around 30% implied win chance. That's pretty crazy for a single player in a 24-player pool! But Clem was not that far behind with second best odds... I feel like people's feelings will shift depending on how masters coliseum goes. | ||
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dysenterymd
1250 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18291 Posts
On January 26 2024 07:14 Waxangel wrote: Checked betting site to see what the odds are like, and Serral has around 30% implied win chance. That's pretty crazy for a single player in a 24-player pool! But Clem was not that far behind with second best odds... I feel like people's feelings will shift depending on how masters coliseum goes. Clean sweeps over his toughest rival of 2023, the GOAT and his teammate make a pretty strong case regardless of who he faces in the finals and which way it goes. I'd also agree that right now it looks like his only real opponent is Clem. And Clem seems to have plenty of problems still (despite his utter domination of WTL). | ||
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Balnazza
Germany1286 Posts
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
Either way, Serral is probably 50%, with Clem, Reynor, and Maru splitting the other half. With some miracle bracket luck it's possible herO, Cure, or Oliveira take it, but it would be like 100/1. | ||
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rwala
338 Posts
On January 26 2024 07:14 Waxangel wrote: Checked betting site to see what the odds are like, and Serral has around 30% implied win chance. That's pretty crazy for a single player in a 24-player pool! But Clem was not that far behind with second best odds... I feel like people's feelings will shift depending on how masters coliseum goes. Yeah that’s high. I haven’t done stats since college but I’m pretty sure even if you assigned Serral an 80% chance of winning every match you wouldn’t get to 30% odds of winning the tourney. | ||
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Kitai
United States880 Posts
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BonitiilloO
Dominican Republic627 Posts
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TossHeroes
281 Posts
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JJH777
United States4418 Posts
On January 26 2024 10:36 rwala wrote: Yeah that’s high. I haven’t done stats since college but I’m pretty sure even if you assigned Serral an 80% chance of winning every match you wouldn’t get to 30% odds of winning the tourney. Luckily for Serral he has at least a 95% win chance against every player in his group besides Byun and even Byun is probably like 80%. Still can't believe how the groups worked out especially group D. Voted Maru, mostly out of blind hope than true belief he will win. Hopefully his loss to Serral today was purposely playing off meta to give Serral less practice before Kato. | ||
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tigera6
3486 Posts
And I expect Maru/Clem would give Serral the most challenge, assuming Maru stop playing like he did from yesterday with those weird Mech/Banshee opening and mine drop. There is also the ZvZ side of thing, I am pretty sure they will do weird shit in the tournament as well. While Serral seems impervious to most cheese thrown at him so far, that wont be all he has to face in IEM bracket. | ||
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bulldozer06701
157 Posts
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luxon
United States117 Posts
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Poopi
France12915 Posts
Still exciting depending on bracket and if there are as crazy upsets as last year! | ||
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Argonauta
Spain4967 Posts
On January 26 2024 11:12 TossHeroes wrote: Goat Serral winning via the hardest path as usual I mean, he got the weakest group. | ||
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Neptuneajax
Australia206 Posts
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MJG
United Kingdom1451 Posts
I'm of course hoping this has the same affect as an Artosis curse. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7202 Posts
I mean, he got the highest seed | ||
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angry_maia
331 Posts
On January 26 2024 17:00 Neptuneajax wrote: I think the real question is: Who can beat Serral? Clem or ZvZ (although Serral's zvz has been looking pretty scary). | ||
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JJH777
United States4418 Posts
Like when Maru was the highest seed and he got Reynor/Clem/Byun in his group. Even Zoun would be harder than any of Serral's opponents besides Byun. | ||
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esReveR
United States567 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26790 Posts
On January 27 2024 04:03 esReveR wrote: I gotta go with the hottest player right now. Clem has been playing incredibly well lately. He has but I still feel a bad day at the office in TvT/P can sink him. He’s definitely stepping up to that next level these last few months More than most years I think it’s really going to depend on how brackets go. I think there’s a bunch wholly capable of triumphing here, the most individually likely I’d have to be boring and pick Serral. He’s so consistent, basically unbeatable in ZvP and you have to play very well indeed to beat him in the other two. Even his ‘weak’ ZvZ is only really thus judged by his lofty standards. | ||
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AirbladeOrange
United States2574 Posts
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xiaodangao
5 Posts
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washikie
United States752 Posts
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SharkStarcraft
Austria2265 Posts
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angry_maia
331 Posts
On January 28 2024 19:09 SharkStarcraft wrote: The real question is: will there be a protoss in the ro8?? Oh most definitely. But it'll be like Showtime and they'll get 3-1'd by someone like Solar and eliminated | ||
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tigera6
3486 Posts
On January 28 2024 19:47 angry_maia wrote: Oh most definitely. But it'll be like Showtime and they'll get 3-1'd by someone like Solar and eliminated herO looking very strong in MC but that group D is damn deadly, and Dark style is even deadlier in a Bo3 format. Other than him, its Astrea/Skillous/Firefly for a Ro12 appearance, but they will need some luck to make it pass that round. | ||
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Locutus_
Brazil65 Posts
On January 28 2024 23:58 tigera6 wrote: herO looking very strong in MC but that group D is damn deadly, and Dark style is even deadlier in a Bo3 format. Other than him, its Astrea/Skillous/Firefly for a Ro12 appearance, but they will need some luck to make it pass that round. I think Firefly goes through. Feeling it | ||
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CicadaSC
United States1913 Posts
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Nasigil
137 Posts
On January 26 2024 15:11 luxon wrote: after watching today's games it's gotta be serral. completely outclassed maru and on a good day he beats clem. only reynor/zergs can take him if he gets unlucky. and jesus after watching how poorly herO and maxpax played, any protoss would be lucky to reach ro16. Honestly, it's Clem that needs to have a good day to be able to beat Serral, not vice versa. Serral 14:4 Clem in series for the past two years. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26790 Posts
On January 29 2024 04:00 Nasigil wrote: Honestly, it's Clem that needs to have a good day to be able to beat Serral, not vice versa. Serral 14:4 Clem in series for the past two years. Yeah and there’s a high chance it’s not just Serral he has to come through, even in his best matchup, Reynor and Dark can take him down and he might have to run a gauntlet through more than one, maybe all of them. Haven’t actually checked so I might be way off, I seem to remember Dark actually having a pretty good record against him, maybe his style matches up better than Serral/Reynor who kind of give him some room to turn it into a straight up mechanical slugfest, where he’s clearly a monster | ||
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Balnazza
Germany1286 Posts
On January 29 2024 01:06 CicadaSC wrote: i think it will probably be herO. his style is very micro based so its hard to make it work in online high ping environments. getting 2nd in MC7 is a big feat. Honestly? I will not surprised with whatever place herO eventually gets. Wins the thing without dropping a map? Sure, why not. Dropping out last in Group Stage? Well, that was expected. I really stopped trying to predict where herO will land. Usually I see him as one of the Top 8 in every tournament, but so often he just kinda bombs out early, usually dropped by players you normally wouldn't expect him to lose against. Dude is just constantly over- and underrated at the same time | ||
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-KG-
Denmark1219 Posts
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Nasigil
137 Posts
On January 29 2024 04:48 WombaT wrote: Yeah and there’s a high chance it’s not just Serral he has to come through, even in his best matchup, Reynor and Dark can take him down and he might have to run a gauntlet through more than one, maybe all of them. Haven’t actually checked so I might be way off, I seem to remember Dark actually having a pretty good record against him, maybe his style matches up better than Serral/Reynor who kind of give him some room to turn it into a straight up mechanical slugfest, where he’s clearly a monster There's a big division point in 2023. Before 2023, Dark 8:3 Clem in series; after 2023, Dark 6:18 Clem. Dark can occasionally catch Clem off guard with some unusual tactics, but he had no chance going fair macro against Clem at this point of his career. | ||
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Gluon
Netherlands421 Posts
It's really had to look at MC, where Serral went something like 17-1 in maps (!) in the play-offs, against the very best in the world, and think he will lose anytime soon. He might drop a few maps or even a series in the group but he will advance either way, and after that I don't have much hope for anyone trying to beat him. | ||
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Ciaus237
South Africa288 Posts
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Durnuu
13322 Posts
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Harris1st
Germany7202 Posts
On January 30 2024 02:06 Ciaus237 wrote: Serral's odds of winning are, IMO, a lot higher than the odds of any other one player. The real questions here are how likely it is Serral wins, and if Serral doesn't, whose the most likely of the rest? TL.net currently has it at Serral 57% Clem 11% Maru 10% herO 6% Reynor 5% Seems reasonable | ||
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Telephone
United States147 Posts
Yes, we are approaching dangerous levels of copium. | ||
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Poopi
France12915 Posts
On January 31 2024 00:59 Telephone wrote: As a Maru fan, I'm glad Maru didn't play in the grand finals of Master's Colliseum. Imagine having to play a best of 9 versus Serral right before Katowice. That would be horrible for his chances. Yes, we are approaching dangerous levels of copium. On the other hand, herO gave a lot of hopes to protosses with his series versus Solar, Dark, Reynor, but his g3 vs Serral was so bad / weird that all the hype might be gone. At least there is less pressure | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26790 Posts
On January 31 2024 00:59 Telephone wrote: As a Maru fan, I'm glad Maru didn't play in the grand finals of Master's Colliseum. Imagine having to play a best of 9 versus Serral right before Katowice. That would be horrible for his chances. Yes, we are approaching dangerous levels of copium. While it makes no intuitive sense I feel Serral is less likely to win Katowice after stomping this playoff bracket. You wanna come into Kato in decent shape sure, but looking back it’s rarely the red-hot, in-form player who actually wins it. Whether it’s pressure, peaking too early and struggling to maintain it, or announcing yourself as THE guy to beat, ergo other contenders have to prep something for you if they’re to triumph, or SC2 being a game of such thin margins I do think there is something in this | ||
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yezzir88
31 Posts
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Locutos
Brazil273 Posts
On January 26 2024 10:52 BonitiilloO wrote: Serral almost perfect defends can make it happen, now i wish someone figure out his play and outsmart him herO taking revenge would be such a nice story! | ||
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Locutos
Brazil273 Posts
On January 31 2024 01:08 WombaT wrote: While it makes no intuitive sense I feel Serral is less likely to win Katowice after stomping this playoff bracket. You wanna come into Kato in decent shape sure, but looking back it’s rarely the red-hot, in-form player who actually wins it. Whether it’s pressure, peaking too early and struggling to maintain it, or announcing yourself as THE guy to beat, ergo other contenders have to prep something for you if they’re to triumph, or SC2 being a game of such thin margins I do think there is something in this Well. Thats exatly how Serral was in Blizzcon 2018. Pure hot steam firerocket form going into it, after 4 WCS and 1 GSL vs Thw World! | ||
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tigera6
3486 Posts
On January 31 2024 07:24 Locutos wrote: Well. Thats exatly how Serral was in Blizzcon 2018. Pure hot steam firerocket form going into it, after 4 WCS and 1 GSL vs Thw World! Its just not the same with IEM, Serral won Blizzcon in 2018 but lost to Soo in IEM 2019, Dark won Blizzon 2019 but lost to Rogue in IEM 2020, Trap won Last Chance in 2021 and didnt make it past group stage in IEM 2021, ect. I do believe that peaking too early will affect your form in the next tournament. Having said that, Serral is just so darn consistent that even when hes not peaking, hes still favored against most players in the world. | ||
Creager
Germany1923 Posts
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CerebrateHector
53 Posts
Nice weekend eh ?  I hope Serral gives me a good birthday present by winning ! | ||
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Neptuneajax
Australia206 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17734 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17734 Posts
On February 06 2024 06:26 Neptuneajax wrote: How is Stats these days? I would be very surprised if he advances from his group I would be surprised if he's not last place Aligulac shows his most recent match as January 29th 😬 His most recent notable victory was a 2-0 over soO in December but then he lost to soO 0-4 the day after that. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On February 07 2024 03:27 Die4Ever wrote: I would be very surprised if he advances from his group I would be surprised if he's not last place Aligulac shows his most recent match as January 29th 😬 His most recent notable victory was a 2-0 over soO in December but then he lost to soO 0-4 the day after that. I'm just kind of happy he made it - we get to be S T A T S B O Y S for one last beautiful time Probably my favorite all-time player - amazing player and even better personality | ||
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