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On May 07 2021 13:35 showstealer1829 wrote:
Kespa dying wasn't the problem. The Region Lock was. Even if Kespa had stayed on you wouldn't have got passed that.
The region lock killed Korea. You will NEVER convince me otherwise so don't even try.
Great conversation starter to inform others, that there is no need to talk to you.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On May 07 2021 15:55 HeroSandro wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2021 13:35 showstealer1829 wrote:
Kespa dying wasn't the problem. The Region Lock was. Even if Kespa had stayed on you wouldn't have got passed that.
The region lock killed Korea. You will NEVER convince me otherwise so don't even try. Great conversation starter to inform others, that there is no need to talk to you.
While it's a stupid starter he's not wrong. Korea has the issue of being stuck in the vitous circle situation since the region lock.
There's too many good players for just the Korean scene, so worse players cannot survive in it.
Region lock removes the option to travel abroad so worse players can be easily obtained by the foreign teams(see how many Koreans ended after the region lock in the WCS Europe)
Now there's less Koreans, so we lower the capability of getting money. <---- this is where KeSPA leaving actually added more pressure while not lowering the money from the tourneys per se
And now there's too many good players for just the Korean scene again.
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The history of SC2 is really messy just because BW was so big thing in one country, South Korea, and was even known for being a national sport in the country. If the sequel fails in the country that has big pro scene and isn't adopted over the previous game, then the public perception of the new games gets hurt badly. Thus, you have to be some what forceful in transition. This of course isn't good to the relationship, when previously the organizations in the country were free to do what the saw best. On the other hand there has been big match fixing scandal and the country isn't unfamiliar with corruption.
Now we have influx of older players from previous game and players benefiting from existing competitive infrastructure. This automatically creates duality with other parts of world as the country is basically an faraway island compared to most of the world getting into the game. This is great as you can frame it as underdogs vs the champions. However this can't really last for forever. Unfortunately the world isn't catching up. Instead the events happening around the world are being dominated by players from the country, while new esports games are getting more popular and provide good players chance to which games in seek of greener grass. This also happens in the country because the sequel isn't as popular as the original game. The country has also culture that heavily focuses on the best of the best so the prize pools are top heavy and you are nobody if you aren't in any well established pro teams.
All of this creates situation, where you want to protect the scene outside the country as you can't justify spending millions on part 2 and 3 of the sequel as well as in marketing with competitive tournaments, while the game relies on success in one country, where the sequel isn't that popular. Thus you start creating regional events and eventually even block players from the country competing in some events. This of course is bad in short term as the previous underdogs vs. champions setup isn't even possible and many only care about the highest level of competition and not about the health of the scene outside the country. The change also makes so that the players around the world get more spotlight while not being as good or interesting as hoped for. However having most players at least speaking in broken English helps to get know the players as pretty much everything isn't going through an interpreter all the time. These changes eventually pay off but the popularity of the game falls greatly before that happens.
While the popularity of the game is decreasing and the competitors are booming and become much bigger, the news of a world champion being involved in match fixing hits. Obviously many teams and sponsor have to examine their current involvement with the game as this isn't the first time that match fixing has happened at the highest level. This creates kind of perfect storm with popularity falling hard, where it's easy to cut loses by pulling support and increasing investments in other esports that are booming hard. Situation also highlights the issue of relying on one country providing the highest level of players. Especially when said country has had criminal issues multiple times. Thus team league ends and many teams are disbanded over time. The greatest tournament in the country and the world is continued, but it is quite clear that in future the local popularity and scene should be driving much harder to justify any significant increases in support from the publisher, that needs to focus more on the scene outside the country to justify future investments.
The scene around the world is improving slowly and has some great competition within, but the top players get smashed by the players from the country. However it is viable to compete full time and commit to the game knowing that you need to be only at the top of your region and not at the top of the world. The skill level keeps increasing and some flashes or brilliance are achieved. Then in 2018 the rise of Serral happens and the best player isn't from the country anymore.
Would this success have happened if the organizations in the country had not disbanded? Probably, but not at the same extend and we could probably still hear a lot more, how the top EU players haven't actually reached the same skill level, but are just beating much worse players, like we heard in 2018 before Serral won GSL vs. the World and the world championship. However, this would be mostly because existing players would have maintained their incentives better, and not because new players or players around the world not getting better. Also attributing the fall of Korean scene and their relative skill level to just disbanding teams or region lock is trivializing things way too much, when there are clear issues like the popularity decreasing over the years and match fixing/corruption.
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Northern Ireland26267 Posts
On May 07 2021 16:00 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2021 15:55 HeroSandro wrote:On May 07 2021 13:35 showstealer1829 wrote:
Kespa dying wasn't the problem. The Region Lock was. Even if Kespa had stayed on you wouldn't have got passed that.
The region lock killed Korea. You will NEVER convince me otherwise so don't even try. Great conversation starter to inform others, that there is no need to talk to you. While it's a stupid starter he's not wrong. Korea has the issue of being stuck in the vitous circle situation since the region lock. There's too many good players for just the Korean scene, so worse players cannot survive in it. Region lock removes the option to travel abroad so worse players can be easily obtained by the foreign teams(see how many Koreans ended after the region lock in the WCS Europe) Now there's less Koreans, so we lower the capability of getting money. <---- this is where KeSPA leaving actually added more pressure while not lowering the money from the tourneys per se And now there's too many good players for just the Korean scene again.
You could have had a region lock that gave the foreigners locked WCS tournaments to develop in, and Korea could have had 2 Starleagues + Supertournament + Proleague, and then open international tournies like the old regular IEMs or Dreamhack and that’s more than enough to both develop the foreign scene and keep the Korean one ticking over.
Alas was not to be.
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I think this issue feeds off of different factors.
My opinion, foreigners such as Serral and Raynor would still be top players in a KeSpa world, yet they would not dominate as they have. I believe that the reasons for this polarization and dominance also needs to take into account that LOTV rewarded more tactical play (mechanical monsters) than overall strategical decisions due to streamlining build orders and the 12 worker start (ode to the 6 pool, players having more choice over opening greedy, safe, cheesy, scouting with a worker or not scouting; and how all these affected midgame and lategame dynamics). Players then could defeat others by displaying a slightly more varied skillset, while it seems that styles now are more universal and it rewards more similar types of competitors.
Region lock may also be factored in, and of course matchfixing.
Some loss in popularity due to the aforementioned variables (as well as foreigners getting better) may be the reason foreigners now are more highly regarded as before.
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Northern Ireland26267 Posts
On May 07 2021 19:45 Steelghost1 wrote:
I think this issue feeds off of different factors.
My opinion, foreigners such as Serral and Raynor would still be top players in a KeSpa world, yet they would not dominate as they have. I believe that the reasons for this polarization and dominance also needs to take into account that LOTV rewarded more tactical play (mechanical monsters) than overall strategical decisions due to streamlining build orders and the 12 worker start (ode to the 6 pool, players having more choice over opening greedy, safe, cheesy, scouting with a worker or not scouting; and how all these affected midgame and lategame dynamics). Players then could defeat others by displaying a slightly more varied skillset, while it seems that styles now are more universal and it rewards more similar types of competitors.
Region lock may also be factored in, and of course matchfixing.
Some loss in popularity due to the aforementioned variables (as well as foreigners getting better) may be the reason foreigners now are more highly regarded as before.
I think this is a good point that isn’t made often enough. If there’s a singular player whose strengths have been lessened in this expansion I think it’s sOs. While not having bad mechanics he’s not a mechanical god either and he used to get a lot of good work done in the old expanded early game with clever and deceptive builds.
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On May 07 2021 19:51 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2021 19:45 Steelghost1 wrote:
I think this issue feeds off of different factors.
My opinion, foreigners such as Serral and Raynor would still be top players in a KeSpa world, yet they would not dominate as they have. I believe that the reasons for this polarization and dominance also needs to take into account that LOTV rewarded more tactical play (mechanical monsters) than overall strategical decisions due to streamlining build orders and the 12 worker start (ode to the 6 pool, players having more choice over opening greedy, safe, cheesy, scouting with a worker or not scouting; and how all these affected midgame and lategame dynamics). Players then could defeat others by displaying a slightly more varied skillset, while it seems that styles now are more universal and it rewards more similar types of competitors.
Region lock may also be factored in, and of course matchfixing.
Some loss in popularity due to the aforementioned variables (as well as foreigners getting better) may be the reason foreigners now are more highly regarded as before. I think this is a good point that isn’t made often enough. If there’s a singular player whose strengths have been lessened in this expansion I think it’s sOs. While not having bad mechanics he’s not a mechanical god either and he used to get a lot of good work done in the old expanded early game with clever and deceptive builds.
THIS.
This is the right idea. sOs was great not because of his absurd mechanical prowess, but rather because he was capable of playing the mindgame; he got in in other players heads and could devise smart builds and army compositions that allowed him to beat tactically superior players. I think you hit the nail with probably the most extreme example.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On May 07 2021 19:45 Steelghost1 wrote:
I think this issue feeds off of different factors.
My opinion, foreigners such as Serral and Raynor would still be top players in a KeSpa world, yet they would not dominate as they have. I believe that the reasons for this polarization and dominance also needs to take into account that LOTV rewarded more tactical play (mechanical monsters) than overall strategical decisions due to streamlining build orders and the 12 worker start (ode to the 6 pool, players having more choice over opening greedy, safe, cheesy, scouting with a worker or not scouting; and how all these affected midgame and lategame dynamics). Players then could defeat others by displaying a slightly more varied skillset, while it seems that styles now are more universal and it rewards more similar types of competitors.
Region lock may also be factored in, and of course matchfixing.
Some loss in popularity due to the aforementioned variables (as well as foreigners getting better) may be the reason foreigners now are more highly regarded as before.
They don't dominate though. From the past 3 or 4 years most of the top tier victories still go to the Korea.
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On May 08 2021 00:31 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2021 19:45 Steelghost1 wrote:
I think this issue feeds off of different factors.
My opinion, foreigners such as Serral and Raynor would still be top players in a KeSpa world, yet they would not dominate as they have. I believe that the reasons for this polarization and dominance also needs to take into account that LOTV rewarded more tactical play (mechanical monsters) than overall strategical decisions due to streamlining build orders and the 12 worker start (ode to the 6 pool, players having more choice over opening greedy, safe, cheesy, scouting with a worker or not scouting; and how all these affected midgame and lategame dynamics). Players then could defeat others by displaying a slightly more varied skillset, while it seems that styles now are more universal and it rewards more similar types of competitors.
Region lock may also be factored in, and of course matchfixing.
Some loss in popularity due to the aforementioned variables (as well as foreigners getting better) may be the reason foreigners now are more highly regarded as before. They don't dominate though. From the past 3 or 4 years most of the top tier victories still go to the Korea.
You are right. I was framing the issue more along the lines of certain types of tactical players being the dominant competitive force, which I think allowed them (particularly the zerg ones) to be winning more consistently in the top brackets.
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Here's my take on why foreigners are doing better in recent years. I'll use a poker analogy.
Top foreigners play purely game theory optimal aka GTO style (mechanical, safe, risk-adverse).
Top Koreans are equally good in playing both GTO and exploitative (high variance, abusive, playing against opponent, occasionally sub-optimal).
So why are Serral and Reynor crushing Koreans? Few factors (in order priority):
- LoTV has streamlined the game to reduce volatility (imagine taking cards 2 to 5 off the poker deck)
- Weekenders (Blizzcon and IEM) are 'grinds' which favour pure GTO style players (or at least, reduce the advantages of exploitative plays which benefits from preparation)
- Disbandment of Korean teamhouses which allowed for more sharing and coaching for 'exploitative' plays
- Zerg is the most-GTO friendly race (controversial, I know)
Overall, I feel top Koreans are still slightly 'better' in the game than foreigners due to their results, and overall mastery of the game through different versions and meta.
That's not to say that Serral and Reynor can't reach to their level yet. But unless they win GSL and produce results across different states of the game (unfortunately for them, that's a bit tough by now as the game development has stagnated - but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*.
* Want to be GOAT? Be like Flash - play GTO and exploitative, win massively, and yes, play random 
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On May 06 2021 12:01 BisuDagger wrote:
Would any zergs be relevant if Life never match fixed? His play level was beyond what Kespa provided.
stupid kid, so much talent wasted. really, really immature and stupid. i dont blame him, tho. i know how these people work.
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On May 08 2021 14:56 RKC wrote:
but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*.
Yeah, reynor and serral's results as 12-15 year olds while in high school is a good argument against them for sure.
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On May 08 2021 21:01 Comedy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2021 14:56 RKC wrote:
but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*.
Yeah, reynor and serral's results as 12-15 year olds while in high school is a good argument against them for sure.
"Drafted by Pantech and Curitel in 2007 and traded off to KTF MagicNs shortly after being drafted, Flash came on to the scene as one of the youngest progamers to be televised at 14 years old. Advancing to the Daum OSL from his first attempt in the offline preliminaries, his career started off in a strong fashion, quickly amassing a winning record in Proleague play and succeeding in getting into both the MSL and OSL...
In 2008, Flash's career reached new heights when he defeated Stork in the finals of the 2008 Bacchus OSL and became the youngest Starleague champion ever at 15, defeating top players such as Jaedong and Bisu along the way.".
 Flash
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On May 08 2021 14:56 RKC wrote:Here's my take on why foreigners are doing better in recent years. I'll use a poker analogy. Top foreigners play purely game theory optimal aka GTO style (mechanical, safe, risk-adverse). Top Koreans are equally good in playing both GTO and exploitative (high variance, abusive, playing against opponent, occasionally sub-optimal). So why are Serral and Reynor crushing Koreans? Few factors (in order priority): - LoTV has streamlined the game to reduce volatility (imagine taking cards 2 to 5 off the poker deck) - Weekenders (Blizzcon and IEM) are 'grinds' which favour pure GTO style players (or at least, reduce the advantages of exploitative plays which benefits from preparation) - Disbandment of Korean teamhouses which allowed for more sharing and coaching for 'exploitative' plays - Zerg is the most-GTO friendly race (controversial, I know) Overall, I feel top Koreans are still slightly 'better' in the game than foreigners due to their results, and overall mastery of the game through different versions and meta. That's not to say that Serral and Reynor can't reach to their level yet. But unless they win GSL and produce results across different states of the game (unfortunately for them, that's a bit tough by now as the game development has stagnated - but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*. * Want to be GOAT? Be like Flash - play GTO and exploitative, win massively, and yes, play random
I agree.
I always wanted to have WCS with similar, time-stretched format as GSL.
Korea have both long tournaments like GSL which favor 'exloitative' play and short 'weekenders' like ST whereas in WCS there is no long, preparation style tournaments at all.
Would be cool to see if given enough time 'lesser' players with hard work could innovate and prepare special builds against top dogs and actually beat them 
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On May 08 2021 22:27 egrimm wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2021 14:56 RKC wrote:Here's my take on why foreigners are doing better in recent years. I'll use a poker analogy. Top foreigners play purely game theory optimal aka GTO style (mechanical, safe, risk-adverse). Top Koreans are equally good in playing both GTO and exploitative (high variance, abusive, playing against opponent, occasionally sub-optimal). So why are Serral and Reynor crushing Koreans? Few factors (in order priority): - LoTV has streamlined the game to reduce volatility (imagine taking cards 2 to 5 off the poker deck) - Weekenders (Blizzcon and IEM) are 'grinds' which favour pure GTO style players (or at least, reduce the advantages of exploitative plays which benefits from preparation) - Disbandment of Korean teamhouses which allowed for more sharing and coaching for 'exploitative' plays - Zerg is the most-GTO friendly race (controversial, I know) Overall, I feel top Koreans are still slightly 'better' in the game than foreigners due to their results, and overall mastery of the game through different versions and meta. That's not to say that Serral and Reynor can't reach to their level yet. But unless they win GSL and produce results across different states of the game (unfortunately for them, that's a bit tough by now as the game development has stagnated - but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*. * Want to be GOAT? Be like Flash - play GTO and exploitative, win massively, and yes, play random I agree. I always wanted to have WCS with similar, time-stretched format as GSL. Korea have both long tournaments like GSL which favor 'exloitative' play and short 'weekenders' like ST whereas in WCS there is no long, preparation style tournaments at all. Would be cool to see if given enough time 'lesser' players with hard work could innovate and prepare special builds against top dogs and actually beat them
Also, top Koreans are compelled to play GTO + exploitative in order to excel in GSL - which is their bread and butter (playing purely GTO style will just get you slaughtered by masters of exploitative plays i.e. Rogue, Dark, sOs, Zest, even Maru to a certain extent, etc.). Whereas top foreigners (except those in Korea, if any) just play 'weekenders' whole year long.
So of course top foreigners feel more at home at Blizzcon and IEM. Whereas Korean have to 'switch up' their training and mindset to prepare for those events.
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On May 08 2021 22:37 RKC wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2021 22:27 egrimm wrote:On May 08 2021 14:56 RKC wrote:Here's my take on why foreigners are doing better in recent years. I'll use a poker analogy. Top foreigners play purely game theory optimal aka GTO style (mechanical, safe, risk-adverse). Top Koreans are equally good in playing both GTO and exploitative (high variance, abusive, playing against opponent, occasionally sub-optimal). So why are Serral and Reynor crushing Koreans? Few factors (in order priority): - LoTV has streamlined the game to reduce volatility (imagine taking cards 2 to 5 off the poker deck) - Weekenders (Blizzcon and IEM) are 'grinds' which favour pure GTO style players (or at least, reduce the advantages of exploitative plays which benefits from preparation) - Disbandment of Korean teamhouses which allowed for more sharing and coaching for 'exploitative' plays - Zerg is the most-GTO friendly race (controversial, I know) Overall, I feel top Koreans are still slightly 'better' in the game than foreigners due to their results, and overall mastery of the game through different versions and meta. That's not to say that Serral and Reynor can't reach to their level yet. But unless they win GSL and produce results across different states of the game (unfortunately for them, that's a bit tough by now as the game development has stagnated - but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*. * Want to be GOAT? Be like Flash - play GTO and exploitative, win massively, and yes, play random I agree. I always wanted to have WCS with similar, time-stretched format as GSL. Korea have both long tournaments like GSL which favor 'exloitative' play and short 'weekenders' like ST whereas in WCS there is no long, preparation style tournaments at all. Would be cool to see if given enough time 'lesser' players with hard work could innovate and prepare special builds against top dogs and actually beat them Also, top Koreans are compelled to play GTO + exploitative in order to excel in GSL - which is their bread and butter (playing purely GTO style will just get you slaughtered by masters of exploitative plays i.e. Rogue, Dark, sOs, Zest, even Maru to a certain extent, etc.). Whereas top foreigners (except those in Korea, if any) just play 'weekenders' whole year long. So of course top foreigners feel more at home at Blizzcon and IEM. Whereas Korean have to 'switch up' their training and mindset to prepare for those events.
Yep.
Let me just add that I think that this difference in the approach to the game between foreigners and Koreans might be one of the main reasons people have arguments who is the GOAT/current best player what is the power ranking etc. as some will value more the creativity and preparation while others will appreciate the calculated all comers build with perfect execution.
For me personally the most exciting sc2 part was the ProLeague, the pinnacle of exploitation & preparation as the format allowed for great, unique and the craziest games ever.
I miss it wholeheartedly 
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I'll just echo what some people have already said: I think Serral, Reynor, and Clem, at their current level, would definitely be competing at the highest level and going toe-to-toe with top Koreans. The main thing that would make it harder would be if they had more competition (i.e., more top level players, which we would have if SC2 had retained its popularity and KESPA stuck around).
Side note: I think there's a case to be made that making KESPA BW pros switch to SC2 was a terrible move for pro starcraft. It instantly destroyed the BW scene, which SC2 100% was not a replacement for (good god, what kind of career might Jangbi have had if not for this switch?!), and it gave SC2 a new influx of pros, which might have been good for the SC2 scene short-term, but it wound up meaning that there were more pros chasing after the diminishing returns of a declining scene. So much of that talent was cultivated and then squandered. Especially in retrospect, the KESPA switch seems like it was about as destructive as it could have been.
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On May 08 2021 21:01 Comedy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2021 14:56 RKC wrote:
but one can argue that their mediocre results in HoTS is proof against them), they can't really be regarded as GOAT*.
Yeah, reynor and serral's results as 12-15 year olds while in high school is a good argument against them for sure.
Someone already responded with the Flash example but I'd also like to point out Maru won his first Starleague shortly after turning 16 and was 15 for most of the season. He was only 13 in his first GSL.
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Northern Ireland26267 Posts
It still doesn’t count against a Serral/Reynor what they were doing at 12/13/14 considering there isn’t really the option to train full time in a gaming house
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EPT
