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Mexico2170 Posts
One thing I've been wondering for a while is the effects of the fall of Kespay, Proleague, OSL etc had in the game.
Many of the best pros retired, many stayed. Some went back to BroodWard too. Many teamhouses disbanded.
While there are still some teamhouses in Korea, many of the top coaches left, and it is known that the team houses now are much less structured than they were in KeSPA days. While I cant say this for sure, I suspect they might even be less structured that on the early days of pre-KeSPA sc2 with the korean eSF.
I suspect that no. While Serral, Reynor, Clem etc are great talents, I don't believe they would be comparable to Korean players if their scene hadn't imploded. I think they would be like Stephano. Very good, winning some tournaments, giving us hope, but ultimately being defeated over time by the Koreans.
While it's impossible to tell, maybe we could have a conversation and make educated guesses?
I know some foreign pros use these forums, and they have had experience in Korea at various points in their career. How does the training evoirment compare now to what was there before?
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There is a lack of new SCII players from Korea, and even if KeSPA had lived that would still have been the case. So yes non-Koreans would still have won eventually even if the team-house scene hadn't declined after KeSPA left. Institutional support doesn't win out in the long term when there's a lack of up and coming talent.
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On May 06 2021 03:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
There is a lack of new SCII players from Korea, and even if KeSPA had lived that would still have been the case. So yes non-Koreans would still have won eventually even if the team-house scene hadn't declined after KeSPA left. Institutional support doesn't win out in the long term when there's a lack of up and coming talent.
Isn‘t the lack of new players partly because Kespa stopped supporting the game?
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On May 06 2021 04:33 Swisslink wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 03:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
There is a lack of new SCII players from Korea, and even if KeSPA had lived that would still have been the case. So yes non-Koreans would still have won eventually even if the team-house scene hadn't declined after KeSPA left. Institutional support doesn't win out in the long term when there's a lack of up and coming talent. Isn‘t the lack of new players partly because Kespa stopped supporting the game?
I'd say it's very much the other way around. KeSPA left because the game wasn't popular in Korea.
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Kespa died because SC2 declined in korea, if Kespa didn't die it would still have died. Pretty much what Ziggurat wrote above, no new talent, few incentives to actually give 100% to sc2.
A more interesting question in my opinion is what if SC2 had gotten a big following in korea, then Kespa wouldn't have died and we would have a big inflow of new young talent as well. In that universe foreigners would never have the success they have had, but thats just my opinion about a very theoretical situation.
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How many good Korean Zergs did we lose as a result of Kespa disbanding? For 2018 and 2019 results that is the only thing that really matters. For 2020 with Kespa still intact Serral/Reynor for sure would have done worse though.
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United States33559 Posts
On May 06 2021 04:34 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 04:33 Swisslink wrote:On May 06 2021 03:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
There is a lack of new SCII players from Korea, and even if KeSPA had lived that would still have been the case. So yes non-Koreans would still have won eventually even if the team-house scene hadn't declined after KeSPA left. Institutional support doesn't win out in the long term when there's a lack of up and coming talent. Isn‘t the lack of new players partly because Kespa stopped supporting the game? I'd say it's very much the other way around. KeSPA left because the game wasn't popular in Korea.
I've been thinking about this problem lately, and wondered if it's actually a global issue and not just a Korean issue.
Serral and Reynor get brought up as "new" talent that only the international scene can produce, but they're actually year one players who started SC2 at a VERY young age and only matured into pros their late teens (AFAIK Clem started a bit later, but still during the WoL era). If we're talking about truly new talent (let's say LotV onward?), I'm not sure if there are many players who are making an impact, even outside of Korea.
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On May 06 2021 04:49 Waxangel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 04:34 ZigguratOfUr wrote:On May 06 2021 04:33 Swisslink wrote:On May 06 2021 03:37 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
There is a lack of new SCII players from Korea, and even if KeSPA had lived that would still have been the case. So yes non-Koreans would still have won eventually even if the team-house scene hadn't declined after KeSPA left. Institutional support doesn't win out in the long term when there's a lack of up and coming talent. Isn‘t the lack of new players partly because Kespa stopped supporting the game? I'd say it's very much the other way around. KeSPA left because the game wasn't popular in Korea. I've been thinking about this problem lately, and wondered if it's actually a global issue and not just a Korean issue. Serral and Reynor get brought up as "new" talent that only the international scene can produce, but they're actually year one players who started SC2 at a VERY young age and only matured into pros their late teens (AFAIK Clem started a bit later, but still during the WoL era). If we're talking about truly new talent (let's say LotV onward?), I'm not sure if there are many players who are making an impact, even outside of Korea.
MaxPax doesn't have any major or premier tournament results yet, but he is an example of a good player who's been playing tournaments for less than two years.
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How many world class players did Korea really lose after the matchfixing scandal? Many of the earlier champions already left or were in decline.
The interest for Sc2 in the country basically died right after and KeSpa dispanded with the departure of all the teamhouses but one, that's true; however, I don't think there was a significant influx of new korean players as early as 2016 and Byun that year showed us that you don't necessarily need a teamhouse to rise to the top.
I doubt that any korean teamhouse could have stopped Serral's ascent in 2018 while I think the absence of region lock could have suffocated his growth or outright convinced him not to go full time just as it was the case with other foreigners back in HoTS; once developed, skill of such magnitude has no nationality, it's irrelevant if Serral or Reynor or Clem effectively are korean or not.
A deeper and more populated korean scene would have produced/mantained more top players, obviously making it harder for the current top foreigners to win; on the other hand, it would have also made harder for certain koreans who dominated the post KeSpa era to amass all the titles they won.
On May 06 2021 04:40 JJH777 wrote:
How many good Korean Zergs did we lose as a result of Kespa disbanding? For 2018 and 2019 results that is the only thing that really matters.
This revisionism is never dying, is it? I get it that the lack of balance in favor of Zerg was overwhelming in the second half of 2019 and lasted long months but this shouldn't make people forget, like they instead do very often, that Zerg wasn't too strong in 2018 and in the first half of 2019; go check once more how often a Zerg reached a GSL final in that timespan.
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France12909 Posts
I also think that without region lock some future top talents at the time might have considered not going full time because it would not be worth it (especially a guy like Serral, whereas a Reynor imo would have played either way), and thus prevented from fully growing to their potential.
If kespa didn't die and pros stayed, even with a bit of young blood from korea (long shot though...), top foreigners like Serral would still be able to compete with top koreans, but with the competition being fiercer the odds of winning international tournaments would be lower obviously.
Especially winning BlizzCon with potentially 12 or 13 koreans, all at top level, would be even more difficult, even if zerg was dominant.
You have to keep in mind though that most of the top sc2 pros were still playing post kespa disband. Rain was the only guy to be dominant in sc2 that ended up going back to BW, the others weren't as good as Zest/Stats or soO/Dark (and later Rogue) or Maru/INno and even ByuN... Maybe soulkey/roro?
edit: also if you think zerg wasn't super strong / favored in late 2018/even 2019 to a lesser extent, you are delusional.
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No breed of new talents resulting in less competitive scene since the fights just happened among their peers only, consequently ended up in declined players' skill overall.
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On May 06 2021 07:20 Poopi wrote:
I also think that without region lock some future top talents at the time might have considered not going full time because it would not be worth it (especially a guy like Serral, whereas a Reynor imo would have played either way), and thus prevented from fully growing to their potential.
If kespa didn't die and pros stayed, even with a bit of young blood from korea (long shot though...), top foreigners like Serral would still be able to compete with top koreans, but with the competition being fiercer the odds of winning international tournaments would be lower obviously.
Especially winning BlizzCon with potentially 12 or 13 koreans, all at top level, would be even more difficult, even if zerg was dominant.
You have to keep in mind though that most of the top sc2 pros were still playing post kespa disband. Rain was the only guy to be dominant in sc2 that ended up going back to BW, the others weren't as good as Zest/Stats or soO/Dark (and later Rogue) or Maru/INno and even ByuN... Maybe soulkey/roro?
edit: also if you think zerg wasn't super strong / favored in late 2018/even 2019 to a lesser extent, you are delusional.
Which means you pretty much agree with me on everything. The number of koreans at BlizzCon 2018 was and would have been fixed at 8 with region lock being present; consider also how much harder it would have been for Maru to win 4 Code S consecutively or for Rogue to win Katowice 2020, for example.
Zerg definitely was not op in that period, if anything Terran was lagging behind especially in early 2019 but Protoss were well positioned in the meta, the sudde kongness of their top players explain their lack of titles.
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Technically Neeb won the last Kespa Cup while Kespa still existed. So yes I believe foreigners like Serral would still win even if Kespa persisted.
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Canada8989 Posts
I wrote a blog about somewhat the same question a while back and my position hasn't really changed.
A decade of SC2: A Calm sunset
Those who believe the rise of a plethora of new foreign stars has nothing to do with the crumbling of the only real professional system SC2 had haven’t pay attention to the last two decades that just came to pass, as much as we may have wanted it, talent and hard work could never keep up with institutionalized performances.
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On May 06 2021 07:36 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 07:20 Poopi wrote:
I also think that without region lock some future top talents at the time might have considered not going full time because it would not be worth it (especially a guy like Serral, whereas a Reynor imo would have played either way), and thus prevented from fully growing to their potential.
If kespa didn't die and pros stayed, even with a bit of young blood from korea (long shot though...), top foreigners like Serral would still be able to compete with top koreans, but with the competition being fiercer the odds of winning international tournaments would be lower obviously.
Especially winning BlizzCon with potentially 12 or 13 koreans, all at top level, would be even more difficult, even if zerg was dominant.
You have to keep in mind though that most of the top sc2 pros were still playing post kespa disband. Rain was the only guy to be dominant in sc2 that ended up going back to BW, the others weren't as good as Zest/Stats or soO/Dark (and later Rogue) or Maru/INno and even ByuN... Maybe soulkey/roro?
edit: also if you think zerg wasn't super strong / favored in late 2018/even 2019 to a lesser extent, you are delusional. Which means you pretty much agree with me on everything. The number of koreans at BlizzCon 2018 was and would have been fixed at 8 with region lock being present; consider also how much harder it would have been for Maru to win 4 Code S consecutively or for Rogue to win Katowice 2020, for example. Zerg definitely was not op in that period, if anything Terran was lagging behind especially in early 2019 but Protoss were well positioned in the meta, the sudde kongness of their top players explain their lack of titles.
Yes exactly, it would have been harder for anyone to be a champion. Foreigners have a much lower chance as it is so their chances to win a championship if kespa would have persisted is really low.
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On May 06 2021 07:00 Xain0n wrote:How many world class players did Korea really lose after the matchfixing scandal? Many of the earlier champions already left or were in decline. The interest for Sc2 in the country basically died right after and KeSpa dispanded with the departure of all the teamhouses but one, that's true; however, I don't think there was a significant influx of new korean players as early as 2016 and Byun that year showed us that you don't necessarily need a teamhouse to rise to the top. I doubt that any korean teamhouse could have stopped Serral's ascent in 2018 while I think the absence of region lock could have suffocated his growth or outright convinced him not to go full time just as it was the case with other foreigners back in HoTS; once developed, skill of such magnitude has no nationality, it's irrelevant if Serral or Reynor or Clem effectively are korean or not. A deeper and more populated korean scene would have produced/mantained more top players, obviously making it harder for the current top foreigners to win; on the other hand, it would have also made harder for certain koreans who dominated the post KeSpa era to amass all the titles they won. Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 04:40 JJH777 wrote:
How many good Korean Zergs did we lose as a result of Kespa disbanding? For 2018 and 2019 results that is the only thing that really matters. This revisionism is never dying, is it? I get it that the lack of balance in favor of Zerg was overwhelming in the second half of 2019 and lasted long months but this shouldn't make people forget, like they instead do very often, that Zerg wasn't too strong in 2018 and in the first half of 2019; go check once more how often a Zerg reached a GSL final in that timespan.
I agree that Maru wouldn't have won 4 GSLs in a row without the Kespa disband. I also agree that Rogue probably wouldn't have won as much.
Zergs was still extremely strong in 2018. They won the most prize money by a larger margin than any other race had ever done up to that point. Even moreso than Terran in 2011. Prize money isn't everything but such a huge difference does point towards imbalance and the state of lategame TvZ that year post raven patch was not kind to Terran. Even Maru relied on mid game builds for the rest of the year in TvZ after raven nerfs. Every top Terran was complaining and Terran received significant buffs in the next several patches.
Their lack of GSL success was mostly on Maru having an absolutely amazing year in TvZ and the preparation nature of the tournament significantly helping Protoss players beat them in well planned series. I also believe Rogue really did have a mental issue with GSL ro8s. That's the only way that series against Neeb that year makes any sense to me...
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On May 06 2021 10:24 JJH777 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 07:00 Xain0n wrote:How many world class players did Korea really lose after the matchfixing scandal? Many of the earlier champions already left or were in decline. The interest for Sc2 in the country basically died right after and KeSpa dispanded with the departure of all the teamhouses but one, that's true; however, I don't think there was a significant influx of new korean players as early as 2016 and Byun that year showed us that you don't necessarily need a teamhouse to rise to the top. I doubt that any korean teamhouse could have stopped Serral's ascent in 2018 while I think the absence of region lock could have suffocated his growth or outright convinced him not to go full time just as it was the case with other foreigners back in HoTS; once developed, skill of such magnitude has no nationality, it's irrelevant if Serral or Reynor or Clem effectively are korean or not. A deeper and more populated korean scene would have produced/mantained more top players, obviously making it harder for the current top foreigners to win; on the other hand, it would have also made harder for certain koreans who dominated the post KeSpa era to amass all the titles they won. On May 06 2021 04:40 JJH777 wrote:
How many good Korean Zergs did we lose as a result of Kespa disbanding? For 2018 and 2019 results that is the only thing that really matters. This revisionism is never dying, is it? I get it that the lack of balance in favor of Zerg was overwhelming in the second half of 2019 and lasted long months but this shouldn't make people forget, like they instead do very often, that Zerg wasn't too strong in 2018 and in the first half of 2019; go check once more how often a Zerg reached a GSL final in that timespan. I agree that Maru wouldn't have won 4 GSLs in a row without the Kespa disband. I also agree that Rogue probably wouldn't have won as much. Zergs was still extremely strong in 2018. They won the most prize money by a larger margin than any other race had ever done up to that point. Even moreso than Terran in 2011. Prize money isn't everything but such a huge difference does point towards imbalance and the state of lategame TvZ that year post raven patch was not kind to Terran. Even Maru relied on mid game builds for the rest of the year in TvZ after raven nerfs. Every top Terran was complaining and Terran received significant buffs in the next several patches. Their lack of GSL success was mostly on Maru having an absolutely amazing year in TvZ and the preparation nature of the tournament significantly helping Protoss players beat them in well planned series. I also believe Rogue really did have a mental issue with GSL ro8s. That's the only way that series against Neeb that year makes any sense to me...
Not really, it was mostly Serral dominating, Rogue winning Katowice and the amazing kongness of Protoss going 1-7 in finals against Zerg in 2018(not that it was going to improve in the following years) combined with the fact that world championships were paying a lot and were very top heavy.
Maru won his Code S at the expenses of mostly Protoss, Super Tournaments were won by Protoss(with Stats defeating Dark) and no Zerg excluding Serral reached a Premier final in the second half of the year.
When in 2019 Zerg became truly op, we had many more Zerg finalist and a significant number of ZvZ finals.
On May 06 2021 08:09 Shuffleblade wrote:
Yes exactly, it would have been harder for anyone to be a champion. Foreigners have a much lower chance as it is so their chances to win a championship if kespa would have persisted is really low.
Foreigners having a much lower chance? It depends from how strong they are, the three currently dominating Europe are as skilled as any top korean.
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Bisutopia19307 Posts
Would any zergs be relevant if Life never match fixed? His play level was beyond what Kespa provided.
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On May 06 2021 11:35 Xain0n wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 10:24 JJH777 wrote:On May 06 2021 07:00 Xain0n wrote:How many world class players did Korea really lose after the matchfixing scandal? Many of the earlier champions already left or were in decline. The interest for Sc2 in the country basically died right after and KeSpa dispanded with the departure of all the teamhouses but one, that's true; however, I don't think there was a significant influx of new korean players as early as 2016 and Byun that year showed us that you don't necessarily need a teamhouse to rise to the top. I doubt that any korean teamhouse could have stopped Serral's ascent in 2018 while I think the absence of region lock could have suffocated his growth or outright convinced him not to go full time just as it was the case with other foreigners back in HoTS; once developed, skill of such magnitude has no nationality, it's irrelevant if Serral or Reynor or Clem effectively are korean or not. A deeper and more populated korean scene would have produced/mantained more top players, obviously making it harder for the current top foreigners to win; on the other hand, it would have also made harder for certain koreans who dominated the post KeSpa era to amass all the titles they won. On May 06 2021 04:40 JJH777 wrote:
How many good Korean Zergs did we lose as a result of Kespa disbanding? For 2018 and 2019 results that is the only thing that really matters. This revisionism is never dying, is it? I get it that the lack of balance in favor of Zerg was overwhelming in the second half of 2019 and lasted long months but this shouldn't make people forget, like they instead do very often, that Zerg wasn't too strong in 2018 and in the first half of 2019; go check once more how often a Zerg reached a GSL final in that timespan. I agree that Maru wouldn't have won 4 GSLs in a row without the Kespa disband. I also agree that Rogue probably wouldn't have won as much. Zergs was still extremely strong in 2018. They won the most prize money by a larger margin than any other race had ever done up to that point. Even moreso than Terran in 2011. Prize money isn't everything but such a huge difference does point towards imbalance and the state of lategame TvZ that year post raven patch was not kind to Terran. Even Maru relied on mid game builds for the rest of the year in TvZ after raven nerfs. Every top Terran was complaining and Terran received significant buffs in the next several patches. Their lack of GSL success was mostly on Maru having an absolutely amazing year in TvZ and the preparation nature of the tournament significantly helping Protoss players beat them in well planned series. I also believe Rogue really did have a mental issue with GSL ro8s. That's the only way that series against Neeb that year makes any sense to me... Not really, it was mostly Serral dominating, Rogue winning Katowice and the amazing kongness of Protoss going 1-7 in finals against Zerg in 2018(not that it was going to improve in the following years) combined with the fact that world championships were paying a lot and were very top heavy. Maru won his Code S at the expenses of mostly Protoss, Super Tournaments were won by Protoss(with Stats defeating Dark) and no Zerg excluding Serral reached a Premier final in the second half of the year. When in 2019 Zerg became truly op, we had many more Zerg finalist and a significant number of ZvZ finals. Show nested quote +On May 06 2021 08:09 Shuffleblade wrote:
Yes exactly, it would have been harder for anyone to be a champion. Foreigners have a much lower chance as it is so their chances to win a championship if kespa would have persisted is really low. Foreigners having a much lower chance? It depends from how strong they are, the three currently dominating Europe are as skilled as any top korean.
The thing is you can literally remove Serrals earnings completely and Zergs still won the most money in 2018. That's without even taking into account that the players Serral beat in ro4s that year were frequently Zergs who may have very well won the events each of those times they lost to Serral.
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I don't think there was really much that could be done. It wasn't so much anything Kespa could change. Other games became popular, had a lot more money in it and had things in place to ensure new talent had a chance to come up. With Overwatch, League and Dota exploding since Kespa came to SC2 it was only a matter of time.
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EPT
