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neutralrobot
Australia1025 Posts
On September 05 2019 17:32 StarcraftSquall wrote: Classic may have something to say about that. Honestly, for me Keen and Trap are both potentially big threats to Maru anyway. I mean, Maru might be back for real and take it all, but there are real threats everywhere, imo. | ||
Poopi
France12906 Posts
And Classic isn't guaranteed a top 1 spot in group D, I could see Dear taking him out or even ragnarok since the patch seems to benefit zerg enough for Rogue to smash Stats. | ||
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Argonauta
Spain4958 Posts
On September 05 2019 20:27 Poopi wrote: I'd say Maru is 55-45% vs Classic (ok maybe 60-40 since this is bo5+ playoff), 75-25% vs KeeN and 55-45% vs Trap. Him making the finals is possible but it'll still be very hard. And Classic isn't guaranteed a top 1 spot in group D, I could see Dear taking him out or even ragnarok since the patch seems to benefit zerg enough for Rogue to smash Stats. Lets be clear, a 2 base swarmhost and a fail cannon rush have nothing to do with new patches. | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On September 05 2019 20:27 Poopi wrote: I'd say Maru is 55-45% vs Classic (ok maybe 60-40 since this is bo5+ playoff), 75-25% vs KeeN and 55-45% vs Trap. Him making the finals is possible but it'll still be very hard. And Classic isn't guaranteed a top 1 spot in group D, I could see Dear taking him out or even ragnarok since the patch seems to benefit zerg enough for Rogue to smash Stats. Keen has a better chanche against Maru than Classic, at the moment. | ||
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Poopi
France12906 Posts
On September 05 2019 20:49 Xain0n wrote: Keen has a better chanche against Maru than Classic, at the moment. Classic is 2747 elo vT on aligulac whereas KeeN is 2413, so I doubt it, especially in a bo7... Lets be clear, a 2 base swarmhost and a fail cannon rush have nothing to do with new patches. Well I didn't see the entirety of the games but there was warp prism involved and it's been nerfed for protoss afaik, so it had an influence on the outcome. | ||
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Jimmon
United States112 Posts
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On September 05 2019 20:57 Poopi wrote: Classic is 2747 elo vT on aligulac whereas KeeN is 2413, so I doubt it, especially in a bo7... Well I didn't see the entirety of the games but there was warp prism involved and it's been nerfed for protoss afaik, so it had an influence on the outcome. It would be a bo5, Maru can't meet Keen in the finals; Aligulac takes time to register changes in level of play and the elo rating in a certain matchup is loosely tied to the overall rating anyway. In the last months, Classic struggled in PvT in online cups, went 3-3 against Special and lost 0-2 to none other than Keen in Code S; Maru seems unstoppable in bo5+ against Protoss, Classic already failed to stop him once. Keen, on the other hand, is a TvT specialist and historically is a tough opponent for Maru(whose worst matchup happens to be TvT, too); also, Keen has seemed a very good player recently, displaying a 5-0 combined demolition of Innovation, for example. | ||
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Akio
Finland1838 Posts
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okays
10 Posts
On September 05 2019 18:14 dbRic1203 wrote: They actually both analyse gsl replays on stream. I ve talked about decision making and strategies, not the execution. And in the further EU Zergs are vastly superior than Korean Zergs. That Korean Z vs EU Z can still be a close game is due to better controls on the Korean side only. Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. That's most of foreigners theorycrafting Korean games and then losing to 3 oracles. I'm sure Koreans could rip WCS games apart on their streams too if they had an inferiority complex to overcome. | ||
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Nakajin
Canada8989 Posts
On September 05 2019 21:54 Xain0n wrote: It would be a bo5, Maru can't meet Keen in the finals; Aligulac takes time to register changes in level of play and the elo rating in a certain matchup is loosely tied to the overall rating anyway. In the last months, Classic struggled in PvT in online cups, went 3-3 against Special and lost 0-2 to none other than Keen in Code S; Maru seems unstoppable in bo5+ against Protoss, Classic already failed to stop him once. Keen, on the other hand, is a TvT specialist and historically is a tough opponent for Maru(whose worst matchup happens to be TvT, too); also, Keen has seemed a very good player recently, displaying a 5-0 combined demolition of Innovation, for example. Keen is 4-15 in map vs Maru and the only time he has beaten Maru offline he was then promptly beaten back in the same GSL group to get eliminated, I wouldn't say he's a historically tough opponent. Although he does seem very much in form atm. | ||
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kajtarp
Hungary485 Posts
On September 05 2019 20:45 Argonauta wrote: Lets be clear, a 2 base swarmhost and a fail cannon rush have nothing to do with new patches. Couldn't agree more. | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On September 06 2019 00:31 Nakajin wrote: Keen is 4-15 in map vs Maru and the only time he has beaten Maru offline he was then promptly beaten back in the same GSL group to get eliminated, I wouldn't say he's a historically tough opponent. Although he does seem very much in form atm. Uh, I remembered Keen faring better against Maru. I am still convinced he would be a nasty opponent at the moment(I'd expect to see Trap advance, in any of case). | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On September 05 2019 23:21 okays wrote: Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. That's most of foreigners theorycrafting Korean games and then losing to 3 oracles. I'm sure Koreans could rip WCS games apart on their streams too if they had an inferiority complex to overcome. Oracles in ZvZ? That's the only matchup we are speaking of. After BlizzCon 2018, korean Zerg are down 7-8 in bo3 in Premier tournaments against non korean Zerg, Serral excluded; if we add bo1 and HSC XIX you have to factor in a 5-2 for koreans, but if we take Serral into consideration, a whopping 1-9 magically appears. Since koreans are generally stronger players than non koreans, even or unfavorable stats in ZvZ advocate for the latter having better understanding of the matchup. | ||
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KobeSteak
39 Posts
On September 05 2019 19:21 deacon.frost wrote: And if Dark didn't fuck up it would have been probably 3:0, this is a two way street and you can't say this based on 1 game. Otherwise I pick up soO vs Serral where soO of all people stopped him. Edit> You can't make such claims with region lock, but Solar went into finals of ROG, soO won IEM, sure, Dark fucked up, but that's 1 game of a player who's known as the foreigner killer(at least of those who are not named Serral). Rogue was slumping hard, who else do we have?  Dont forget Elazer was also the first foreigner to wreck Dark back in 2017 blizzcon to end his "foreigner killer" streak (If i remember correctly | ||
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TentativePanda
United States800 Posts
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StabiloBoss20
313 Posts
On September 06 2019 00:31 Nakajin wrote: Keen is 4-15 in map vs Maru and the only time he has beaten Maru offline he was then promptly beaten back in the same GSL group to get eliminated, I wouldn't say he's a historically tough opponent. Although he does seem very much in form atm. and if I recall correctly, this was in the short period, where mass cyclone was the only way to go in TvT. and somehow Maru missed this meta. Maru's TvP looked outstanding. The new EMP might change this match up drastically. But he also looked still off vs. Solar. Even on Cobalt he lost so many Marines due late pick up... and really bad mistakes overall. I think he's still in a slump. | ||
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MarianoSC2
Slovakia1855 Posts
On September 05 2019 20:27 Poopi wrote: I'd say Maru is 55-45% vs Classic (ok maybe 60-40 since this is bo5+ playoff), 75-25% vs KeeN and 55-45% vs Trap. Him making the finals is possible but it'll still be very hard. And Classic isn't guaranteed a top 1 spot in group D, I could see Dear taking him out or even ragnarok since the patch seems to benefit zerg enough for Rogue to smash Stats. Lets not forget that when Rogue is in form his ZvP is practically unwinnable for protoss. And he seems to be getting to a good shape | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
There is no way maru loses with this new EMP Maru basically has Psionic storm on steroids to use against Protoss. | ||
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Poopi
France12906 Posts
On September 06 2019 19:17 BerserkSword wrote: If maru loses to a Protoss from here on out I'll eat my hat There is no way maru loses with this new EMP Maru basically has Psionic storm on steroids to use against Protoss. So much balance whine already while only Maru is qualified for BlizzCon among KR terrans so far while there are currently 5 protoss. We could wait a bit before reaching conclusions. Hopefully TY / Rogue both manage to qualify for BlizzCon. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12129 Posts
On September 06 2019 19:17 BerserkSword wrote: If maru loses to a Protoss from here on out I'll eat my hat There is no way maru loses with this new EMP Maru basically has Psionic storm on steroids to use against Protoss. And again, Maru has to get there, while he's bulding the Academy sooner nowadays it's still not that soon. e.g. this upgrade wouldn't have mattered against Patience back then. | ||
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