There's little time for rest in the hectic world of competitive StarCraft II. After a short break for IEM PyeongChang, GSL Code S is back with the first of its round of sixteen group. In fact, two of the competitors from IEM will be playing in Group A, having had limited time to prepare for their GSL trial. Will Scarlett's experience at IEM help her reach the quarterfinals, or will she face a harsh reality check? Will Zest's woes continues, or will he prove he is indeed the best?
.1
Ro16, Group A: All according to plan?
The GSL returns with it's most racially balanced group, the result of a wild and nonsensical group nomination. The Machine has done his best to craft an optimal group, but recent events threaten to throw a wrench in his perfectly laid cogs.
In terms of first opponents, INnoVation really couldn’t have picked better than Leenock. Not only has INnoVation's TvZ been traditionally stellar, he has a frightening 69.44% win-rate in recent months. To compound it, INnoVation has been Leenock’s nemesis for what seems like forever. The last series Leenock took against INnoVation was back in 2012, while he won his last game against him in 2014. One potential threat to INnoVation is his former KT rival Zest. However, INnoVation has been able to get the better of him on occasion, and could still beat him with some carefully prepared strategies. Moreover, Zest's recent form has been quite erratic—so much so that INnoVation may not mind playing his hated TvP match-up. Overall INnoVation must feel really happy.
On the other hand Leenock is probably cursing his luck, as he's trapped against two juggernaut Korean opponents and the hottest foreigner of the moment. The most likely scenario for Leenock to advance is to miraculously beat one of his countrymen, and hope he lands in a ZvZ against Scarlett (a match-up in which his form is quite good at the moment). Even Leenock seemed resigned to defeat against INnoVation during group nominations, but his chance of beating Zest seems much better. Zest's recent PvZ win-rate is quite terrible at 43% over the last two months. Still, when considering the caliber of players Zest has faced, Leenock still has a mountain to climb if he wants to see the GSL RO8 for the first time in over five years.
While Zest looked to be going into 2018 with guns blazing, his most recent result have cast a shadow on his form once more. As impressive as his wins against sOs, Classic, herO and TY were in the IEM PyeongChang qualifier, they contrasted strikingly against his complete collapse against soO in the GSL, his inglorious losses to Cham and Dear in the IEM Katowice qualifier, and elimination at the hands of Elazer in the IEM PyeongChang RO8. While his PvT form is impressive on paper, it's inflated by victories against the likes of Bunny, Buster and Semper. His PvZ has was already been suspect—enough to the point where if he doesn't study his opponents carefully, he might be in real danger of going out in the Ro16.
Initially Scarlett looked like an "insurance" match for INno and Zest. However, her IEM PyeongChang championship has completely shifted the power dynamics of the group. Her ZvT form is still quite bad, with her losing and struggling against aLive, Maru and Kelazhur in recent matches. On the other hand, her ZvZ is excellent, with notable victories against Serral and Elazer and even the reigning BlizzCon champion Rogue. Her ZvP win rate in the last two months is 57.89%. However, her only major victory against a notable Korean Protoss in recent times was against sOs, a very mercurial player. Scarlett has struggled against the likes of Neeb and she even dropped a set to Dear in the Katowice qualifier. Still, with her recent championship, NoRegret by her side, and Bly on speed-dial, the other players in Group A must respect Scarlett or risk elimination.
Predictions
Overall, the recent happenings shouldn’t have affected INnoVation’s plans too much. He should still be a favorite to advance. The second player to make it out is a lot more complicated and difficult prediction. Given everyone's recent form, they're all capable of scoring an 'upset' against each other. After weighing all the variables, I like Scarlett's chances the most. Her ZvZ and ZvP are good enough, and Zest’s PvZ has been bad enough that I give her a narrow edge. No matter who wins, though, tears will flow.
it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
Except if they do that they can't compete in GSL, so Koreans aren't free to do the same thing at all. Only foreigners have the privilege of competing in all the events, thanks to region-lock.
As I've said before, whether or not region-lock is useful/necessary is up for debate. Whether it is unfair is simple fact.
It's a tough call for sure. But if her ZvZ is at the same level as it has been and her ZvP is at least passable, I like her chances. Who knows, maybe she miraculously performs as she did in NW4 against South Korea, and her ZvT ends up being unstoppable. I sure hope so. With Jake 'Essential Coach' Umpleby at her side, who's to say what she can or can't achieve?
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
Except if they do that they can't compete in GSL, so Koreans aren't free to do the same thing at all. Only foreigners have the privilege of competing in all the events, thanks to region-lock.
As I've said before, whether or not region-lock is useful/necessary is up for debate. Whether it is unfair is simple fact.
Give me a source on that. According to the rulebook Koreans competing overseas are limited to 5 weeks out of their region for "non-competitive" reasons. As the GSL is presumably a "competitive" reason, strictly speaking a Korean could compete in both the GSL and WCS as long as they don't mind travelling a lot and the difficulty of maintaining a Visa under those circumstances (this is going by the book. Maybe Blizzard has said that this isn't allowed, but afaik no one has tried).
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
Not even close to being the same thing. Staying in korea is a commitment, but there are no serious restrictions on it. Actually moving to a new country is much harder and more expensive than simply staying in an overseas teamhouse for a season or two.
If a korean wants to play in wcs, they must arrange for a visa (which could take several months to a year assuming they can even get one), then spend a ridiculously amount of money on residency and moving. They also have to commit to living there, they would be unable to play in GSL and other korean events. Which would put them in an arguably worser spot than if they just stayed.
As others have said many times, without the support of a big foreign team (like what TRUE had) it's not financially worth it for most koreans to move regions. In fact I doubt it's worth it for any of them. Even the ones with the money to do it (like TY or innovation) are better of spending their time earning money in korea.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
Except if they do that they can't compete in GSL, so Koreans aren't free to do the same thing at all. Only foreigners have the privilege of competing in all the events, thanks to region-lock.
As I've said before, whether or not region-lock is useful/necessary is up for debate. Whether it is unfair is simple fact.
Give me a source on that. According to the rulebook Koreans competing overseas are limited to 5 weeks out of their region for "non-competitive" reasons. As the GSL is presumably a "competitive" reason, strictly speaking a Korean could compete in both the GSL and WCS as long as they don't mind travelling a lot and the difficulty of maintaining a Visa under those circumstances (this is going by the book. Maybe Blizzard has said that this isn't allowed, but afaik no one has tried).
Disclaimer: I'm not an immigration lawyer.
That being said, this is what I found (about US law, no doubt immigration law is different for each country):
"Each visa has certain restrictions placed on it. The Office of Consular Affairs has general information about travel restrictions associated with each visa."
"During your visit to the U.S., you may visit Canada or Mexico for up to 30 days and re-enter the U.S. as long as you re-enter within the period noted on the Form I-94 which you received when you first entered.......
......If you visit other countries such as England or Costa Rica, then return to the U.S., your re-entry will be considered to be a new admission, rather than a re-entry from a contiguous country in the course of your initial visit, and the admission inspection may be more strenuous.......
......Re-entry is, of course, dependent on your continued eligibility to enter."
From the looks of it, there would be significant legal barriers for a Korean national getting a US visa and then promptly spending the entire year–save a few weekends for WCS tourneys–in Korea. Again, I'm not an immigration lawyer. It's entirely possible that I'm mistaken about immigration law.
But even so, consider that if what you are saying is true–that there is in fact a legal way for any Korean progamer to get a foreign visa before returning to Korea–then that means the entire purpose of region lock is a message from Blizzard to Korean pros: "Sure, of course you can keep playing GSL and playing in all the foreign tournaments. You just have to pay a lot more money and jump through a lot of legal hoops."
How exactly is putting Korean pros through a lot of financial and legal hassle supposed to help the foreign scene?
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
Except if they do that they can't compete in GSL, so Koreans aren't free to do the same thing at all. Only foreigners have the privilege of competing in all the events, thanks to region-lock.
As I've said before, whether or not region-lock is useful/necessary is up for debate. Whether it is unfair is simple fact.
Give me a source on that. According to the rulebook Koreans competing overseas are limited to 5 weeks out of their region for "non-competitive" reasons. As the GSL is presumably a "competitive" reason, strictly speaking a Korean could compete in both the GSL and WCS as long as they don't mind travelling a lot and the difficulty of maintaining a Visa under those circumstances (this is going by the book. Maybe Blizzard has said that this isn't allowed, but afaik no one has tried).
That being said, this is what I found (about US law, no doubt immigration law is different for each country):
"Each visa has certain restrictions placed on it. The Office of Consular Affairs has general information about travel restrictions associated with each visa."
"During your visit to the U.S., you may visit Canada or Mexico for up to 30 days and re-enter the U.S. as long as you re-enter within the period noted on the Form I-94 which you received when you first entered.......
......If you visit other countries such as England or Costa Rica, then return to the U.S., your re-entry will be considered to be a new admission, rather than a re-entry from a contiguous country in the course of your initial visit, and the admission inspection may be more strenuous.......
......Re-entry is, of course, dependent on your continued eligibility to enter."
From the looks of it, there would be significant legal barriers for a Korean national getting a US visa and then promptly spending the entire year–save a few weekends for WCS tourneys–in Korea. Again, I'm not an immigration lawyer. It's entirely possible that I'm mistaken about immigration law.
But even so, consider that if what you are saying is true–that there is in fact a legal way for any Korean progamer to get a foreign visa before returning to Korea–then that means the entire purpose of region lock is a message from Blizzard to Korean pros: "Sure, of course you can keep playing GSL and playing in all the foreign tournaments. You just have to pay a lot more money and jump through a lot of legal hoops."
How exactly is putting Korean pros through a lot of financial and legal hassle supposed to help the foreign scene?
Of course not. The purpose is to require pros to actually be part of the local scene (like TRUE does) to compete in WCS. But regardless Koreans can compete in both GSL and WCS just like foreigners can albeit at a much higher cost (and the cost to foreigners is in of itself high enough that most foreigners do not compete in GSL). It's a matter of degrees of cost.
It's true that it's kind of silly for Blizzard to lock Koreans out of International tournaments but then let non-Koreans play in the Korean tournaments. However in practice it doesn't really matter since very few non-Koreans are successful in Korean Tournaments anyway. Scarlett getting to the round of 16 doesn't somehow change the fact that most of the money in Korean tournaments is going to Korean players. So in practice the system is working fine as is. If GSL got to the point where it was like 25%-50% non-Koreans then I'm sure Blizzard would change their policy.
The real issue that doesn't get talked about enough is why an international e-sport would have an offline tournament that takes place over several months thus requiring all participants to live near the location of said tournament. An alternate solution to the rather clumsy region lock currently in place would be for Blizzard to require all WCS SC2 tournaments to take place over a week or less and hold region locked online qualifiers (including Korea as a region) as well as an open bracket. Combining such a system with a more evenly distributed prize pool would ensure adequate opportunities for up and coming players around the world without shutting out the best players.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
You know it takes a lot of effort and money to compete in the GSL? Koreans are free to do the same thing in America or Europe so long as they have a visa, which, I realize, is harder and a longer process, but it's not like Scarlett and co. don't have to make a big effort to live and compete in Korea.
Except if they do that they can't compete in GSL, so Koreans aren't free to do the same thing at all. Only foreigners have the privilege of competing in all the events, thanks to region-lock.
As I've said before, whether or not region-lock is useful/necessary is up for debate. Whether it is unfair is simple fact.
Give me a source on that. According to the rulebook Koreans competing overseas are limited to 5 weeks out of their region for "non-competitive" reasons. As the GSL is presumably a "competitive" reason, strictly speaking a Korean could compete in both the GSL and WCS as long as they don't mind travelling a lot and the difficulty of maintaining a Visa under those circumstances (this is going by the book. Maybe Blizzard has said that this isn't allowed, but afaik no one has tried).
That being said, this is what I found (about US law, no doubt immigration law is different for each country):
"Each visa has certain restrictions placed on it. The Office of Consular Affairs has general information about travel restrictions associated with each visa."
"During your visit to the U.S., you may visit Canada or Mexico for up to 30 days and re-enter the U.S. as long as you re-enter within the period noted on the Form I-94 which you received when you first entered.......
......If you visit other countries such as England or Costa Rica, then return to the U.S., your re-entry will be considered to be a new admission, rather than a re-entry from a contiguous country in the course of your initial visit, and the admission inspection may be more strenuous.......
......Re-entry is, of course, dependent on your continued eligibility to enter."
From the looks of it, there would be significant legal barriers for a Korean national getting a US visa and then promptly spending the entire year–save a few weekends for WCS tourneys–in Korea. Again, I'm not an immigration lawyer. It's entirely possible that I'm mistaken about immigration law.
But even so, consider that if what you are saying is true–that there is in fact a legal way for any Korean progamer to get a foreign visa before returning to Korea–then that means the entire purpose of region lock is a message from Blizzard to Korean pros: "Sure, of course you can keep playing GSL and playing in all the foreign tournaments. You just have to pay a lot more money and jump through a lot of legal hoops."
How exactly is putting Korean pros through a lot of financial and legal hassle supposed to help the foreign scene?
Of course not. The purpose is to require pros to actually be part of the local scene (like TRUE does) to compete in WCS. But regardless Koreans can compete in both GSL and WCS just like foreigners can albeit at a much higher cost (and the cost to foreigners is in of itself high enough that most foreigners do not compete in GSL). It's a matter of degrees of cost.
And my point is that it isn't a matter of cost. It's implicitly forbidden by the existence of region-lock.
The entire purpose of region-lock is to prevent Koreans from doing exactly what they did before region-lock–which is to say, live in Korea, play in GSL, fly out for the occasional WCS tourney. They aren't part of the local scene in any way. If the only thing region-lock does is give Koreans a financial/legal headache while flying to and from WCS tourneys, they still aren't part of the local scene in any way, and region-lock is a categorical failure.
Therefore, it stands to reason that region-lock forbids Koreans from doing exactly what Scarlett/Major/etc are doing this very moment, simply because they are Korean. And if Koreans start using legal loopholes to get around that, I'm confident Blizzard would close those loopholes posthaste.
Hence why I said region-lock is by its very nature an inherently unfair system. A system can be unfair and necessary, but it's still unfair.
On February 10 2018 11:38 Waxangel wrote: Region lock is obviously and blatantly unfair; that's not a debate. The question is whether or not it's "good" for pro starcraft
It seems obvious that a one-way region lock would be unfair, but a lot of people don't think that way
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Koreans also have SSL, which isn't open to foreigners? So there's WCS for foreginers, SSL for Koreans, and GSL for everyone. If so, it sounds fair to me.
In addition, if GSL ever gets to the point where ro4 is routinely all-foreigner (the way that WCS America / Europe used to be all-Korean ro4 all the time, if not ro8), they'll probably region lock GSL too.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Koreans also have SSL, which isn't open to foreigners? So there's WCS for foreginers, SSL for Koreans, and GSL for everyone. If so, it sounds fair to me.
In addition, if GSL ever gets to the point where ro4 is routinely all-foreigner (the way that WCS America / Europe used to be all-Korean ro4 all the time, if not ro8), they'll probably region lock GSL too.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Koreans also have SSL, which isn't open to foreigners? So there's WCS for foreginers, SSL for Koreans, and GSL for everyone. If so, it sounds fair to me.
In addition, if GSL ever gets to the point where ro4 is routinely all-foreigner (the way that WCS America / Europe used to be all-Korean ro4 all the time, if not ro8), they'll probably region lock GSL too.
SSL is not only open to everyone but it's also not annouced yet for this year anyway.
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Koreans also have SSL, which isn't open to foreigners? So there's WCS for foreginers, SSL for Koreans, and GSL for everyone. If so, it sounds fair to me.
In addition, if GSL ever gets to the point where ro4 is routinely all-foreigner (the way that WCS America / Europe used to be all-Korean ro4 all the time, if not ro8), they'll probably region lock GSL too.
SSL is not only open to everyone but it's also not annouced yet for this year anyway.
when Innovation was weak against roach bane busts years ago people roach bane busted him because it was their best chance and it worked. nothing different here - end the myth that being "better in a 30 minute game" means you deserve to win more. viva aggression
On February 10 2018 08:58 Mun_Su wrote: it would be good to see Scarlett go through ro16, but it may be more tasty to see the hype train crash. So i'm good either the qualifies or not (and INno has to qualifies ofc)
EDIT/ oh I forgot that all foreigners can compete in GSL and WCS events while koreans just have GSL. So I'll automaticaly cheer against foreigner for that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Koreans also have SSL, which isn't open to foreigners? So there's WCS for foreginers, SSL for Koreans, and GSL for everyone. If so, it sounds fair to me.
In addition, if GSL ever gets to the point where ro4 is routinely all-foreigner (the way that WCS America / Europe used to be all-Korean ro4 all the time, if not ro8), they'll probably region lock GSL too.
On February 11 2018 00:24 brickrd wrote: when Innovation was weak against roach bane busts years ago people roach bane busted him because it was their best chance and it worked. nothing different here - end the myth that being "better in a 30 minute game" means you deserve to win more. viva aggression
Sure nobody argues that Innovation deserved to advance. But I think that this kind of playstyle may allow you to steal a series here and there but is not solid enough to have success with it in the long run especially once players start studying you. In this context it means that she beat Inno in this one series but doesn't say much about if she has the skill to compete with the top players in the long run.
I think that everybody should learn from scarlets early aggression against sos and start playing the game its supposed to be played instead opening 3-5 bases, and reaching 150 supply before fighting.
I'll never understand why some people think in terms of "how the game is supposed to be played" If one wins.... one is playing the way it supposed to be play not some random honor rules or honor meta of perception...
On February 12 2018 10:48 Hok wrote: I'll never understand why some people think in terms of "how the game is supposed to be played" If one wins.... one is playing the way it supposed to be play not some random honor rules or honor meta of perception...
For example, not counting on enemy's ability to start cheese early aggression build and just build 3 hatcheries with queens and drones by 2,30min for yourself is against any kind of common sense but thats what exactly is happening in TOP TOP TOP finals between the best players out there.
scarlet is gonna crush the group. her recent struggles against neeb and kelazur mean nothing as the games were played on AM with korean ping. i think she s better then ever right now and has a really good shot at finishing first in her group
Region lock may be unfair but that's on Blizzard not on Scarlett. It seems silly to fault her for winning or stop cheering for her because someone else did something you don't like. If Hitler said Germans could only eat German sandwiches but Americans can eat whatever they want, I'd still eat German sandwiches goddamnit. One, because I'm partial to a good hamburger and two, because screw that guy man, I won't let him ruin my dietary fun. Gogo Scarlett ftw!
On February 13 2018 04:19 Arghmyliver wrote: If Hitler said Germans could only eat German sandwiches but Americans can eat whatever they want, I'd still eat German sandwiches goddamnit. One, because I'm partial to a good hamburger and two, because screw that guy man, I won't let him ruin my dietary fun.
The fuck
On February 13 2018 00:14 alpenrahm wrote: scarlet is gonna crush the group. her recent struggles against neeb and kelazur mean nothing as the games were played on AM with korean ping. i think she s better then ever right now and has a really good shot at finishing first in her group
It's more impressive when you post it before it happens
EPT
by Destructicon![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/bird_blue_16.png)
- TL_Destructicon
INnoVation really couldn’t have picked better than Leenock. Not only has INnoVation's TvZ been traditionally stellar, he has a frightening 69.44% win-rate in recent months. To compound it, INnoVation has been Leenock’s nemesis for what seems like forever. The last series Leenock took against INnoVation was back in 2012, while he won his last game against him in 2014. One potential threat to INnoVation is his former KT rival Zest. However, INnoVation has been able to get the better of him on occasion, and could still beat him with some carefully prepared strategies. Moreover, Zest's recent form has been quite erratic—so much so that INnoVation may not mind playing his hated TvP match-up. Overall INnoVation must feel really happy.
Leenock is probably cursing his luck, as he's trapped against two juggernaut Korean opponents and the hottest foreigner of the moment. The most likely scenario for Leenock to advance is to miraculously beat one of his countrymen, and hope he lands in a ZvZ against Scarlett (a match-up in which his form is quite good at the moment). Even Leenock seemed resigned to defeat against INnoVation during group nominations, but his chance of beating Zest seems much better. Zest's recent PvZ win-rate is quite terrible at 43% over the last two months. Still, when considering the caliber of players Zest has faced, Leenock still has a mountain to climb if he wants to see the GSL RO8 for the first time in over five years.
Zest looked to be going into 2018 with guns blazing, his most recent result have cast a shadow on his form once more. As impressive as his wins against sOs, Classic, herO and TY were in the IEM PyeongChang qualifier, they contrasted strikingly against his complete collapse against soO in the GSL, his inglorious losses to Cham and Dear in the IEM Katowice qualifier, and elimination at the hands of Elazer in the IEM PyeongChang RO8. While his PvT form is impressive on paper, it's inflated by victories against the likes of Bunny, Buster and Semper. His PvZ has was already been suspect—enough to the point where if he doesn't study his opponents carefully, he might be in real danger of going out in the Ro16.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/w12fyJo.png)
