Be Wary of Repeats

by Zealously

The regular season of the 2014-15 SK Telecom Proleague has concluded, and we are about to enter the playoffs. If it weren't for the change of format, you could very well wake up tomorrow and think you were back in the summer of 2014. The format may have changed, but the teams are the same.



It has been more than a year since the fateful finals between KT Rolster and SK Telecom, and a lot of things have happened since. From roster changes to major upheavals, this season has been one of both the unexpected and, surprisingly, the eerily predictable. Parting fled Korea (we like to think he was ashamed of having his head kicked into the crowd) and in doing so, through a controversial and little-used paragraph in the KeSPA ruleset, found himself barred from ever participating in Proleague again. Teams MVP and Startale-yoe Flash Wolves not only gave their all for the competition, they gave rise (and second winds) to players we thought were now doomed to wallow in mediocrity. In what constituted their darkest hour, a crumbling Startale was swept up and saved by title sponsor SBENU, and their immediate acquisitions filled a hollowed-out roster with familiar names. Life left Startale after nearly three (some would say too many) years on the team to join KT Rolster, and Flash's seemingly everlasting Proleague consistency finally came to an end. In his place, a long-underrated Stats rose to prominence and honored the timeless tradition of KT Protoss players all-killing SK Telecom.

But at the heart of things, it seems, nothing really changes. SK Telecom now contently await their opponents in the finals, boasting a mind-boggling 23-5 (+41) record in the round robin, favored to win now just as they were last year. The race to the finals, however, might be closer than ever.



To anyone who has followed Proleague throughout the season, it should come as no surprise that KT Rolster vs Jin Air is the first match of the playoffs. Unlike SK Telecom and CJ Entus — both of whom have made all 4 Round playoffs this season — KT and Jin Air have suffered serious dips in form at some point during the season. For KT, it happened in Round 1. For Jin Air, in Round 4. Both teams possess considerable depth in a best of 5 setting, but very nearly demand outstanding performances from one player or another once matches demand more than 3 wins. In rounds 1 and 4 respectively, the failings of their core players hurt their depth to an extent where the round robin format proved too tough.

Unfortunately for Jin Air, their dip in form falls woefully close to their most important match of the season. Their reliance on their three-man core of Maru/Rogue/sOs has availed them great things— except when the core players don't perform. Maru's downturn in Round 4 subsequently saw Jin Air fail to qualify for the Round 4 Playoffs. For reference, they have made the Round playoffs 7 times in a row prior to the last one.

KT, meanwhile, are on the rise. Zest and TY represent the strongest one-two punch in Proleague, and have both the team league and individual league results to stand for that fact. Like last year, when there seemed to be too many problems with their roster for the playoffs effort to be able to come together in time, the KT bench has its aces. There is nothing KT values more highly than Proleague— nothing that motivates the players more than what lies before them. If they could go all the way last year, when there weaknesses were more numerous and more pronounced than they are now, there is no reason to believe that the Round 4 champions could not repeat the performance.

This, of course, isn't to say that all is lost for Jin Air. Consecutive losses in Proleague may not speak very highly of the historically reliable ace Maru, but his GSL successes should at least offset some of the doubts sprung from a lackluster Round 4. The all-kill match that will be played on Tuesday represents an opportunity for the Jin Air roster to counteract KT's arguably superior depth. The Fresh Prince of Jin Air has been set off by all-kills and turned into an Proleague win-machine in the past. Given that the all-kill format will be played out no matter what, Jin Air can at least look forward to a fight on somewhat even footing.

Though with CJ Entus waiting on the horizon, their bench now armed with two Starleague finalists, the real challenge still lies ahead of the winning team. How would KT fare against a team historically well-equipped to beat them. How would Jin Air fare against their Proleague rivals when ByuL and herO, their biggest obstacles, stand at the top of the world? It would be useless to make too many predictions. The bottom line is this: Jin Air may appear weak and bereft of their most valuable player, but the same was said last year— about the team that eventually won the championship.

And if we know anything about Proleague, through the twisting and turning ups-and-downs that have brought players from great heights into deep slumps and back again, it is that these teams are not so easily defeated when everything is on the line.

Jin Air Green Wings vs KT Rolster - Match 1

by munch

Monday, Sep 21 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Flash < Echo LE > Trap

After nine gruelling months, it’s finally time to kick off the SPL post season, and what could be more fitting than seeing a rather familiar face lining up first for KT Rolster? Yep, Flash is going to be opening things up for us, and he’s been fortunate to draw one of Jin Air’s B-Teamers rather than one of their celebrated core. Trap first came to light as a PvZ sniper for STX Soul, but he’s still yet to translate that excellence into consistent performances in the other two matchups. His PvT has been especially worrying this year, and he sports a 4-10 record since April (1-6 in series). Some of those losses are somewhat understandable (TY, Dream), while others are a bit more worrying (Heart, jjakji). He’s a player who excels far more in messy early game scenarios than the type of late game macro that Flash prefers, with a preference for warp prism and DT harass, and it will be interesting to see if he can dictate the play without letting the KT Terran get comfortable. After all, Echo is the very map on which Flash crushed herO early on in Round 4, when herO’s inability to punish a 3CC opening proved too insurmountable a challenge to overcome in the late game.

TY < Iron Fortress LE > Pigbaby

The switch to the BO7 format in the post season has given the KT coach the awkward realisation that he doesn’t actually have enough players to keep TY out of the squad any longer. It’s pretty absurd that he’s been relegated to a bit part role in this season’s campaign so far, and his performances in the latter part of the year have suggested that he might prove to a major component to his team’s hopes for the next month of competition.

Does this look like an all-kill to you? Well, it is.

His recent TvP form has certainly been impressive—victories over herO, Zest and Classic in the past month—and Pigbaby certainly hasn’t done anything recently to suggest that he should be mentioned alongside that calibre of player. His return to Korea after his successful stint in WCS America has been a disappointment, and a single Code S appearance is all he’s had to show for the year. A year in which your sole offline PvT victory came over TANGTANG in March can hardly be said to be successful. However, it’s worth bearing in mind here why we all know his name, and if he can return to 2014 form anything’s possible here.

Super < Cactus Valley LE > Cure

The PvT fest continues! This time it’s KT’s turn to bring out a struggling Protoss. Much like TY, Super’s possibly been an unfortunate casualty of KT’s insistence on fielding their core four players week in, week out. This will be his very first appearance in Proleague all year, and the fact that it’s coming in such an important match surely puts a great deal of undue pressure on him. KT’s decision not to rotate earlier in the season, especially considering that matches will be BO7 from now on in, will surely be partially judged on whether Super can perform on the night. After all, the last time they gave a starting spot in the playoffs to an inexperienced protoss against Jin Air, TRUE’s proxy hatcheries caused a complete collapse in his gameplan. For his part, Cure’s hardly been that great in the matchup either, and he’s cooled off following his great start in the early rounds of Proleague. He’s still shown far better results this year though, and should be expected to pick up the set.

Zest < Vaani Research Station > sOs

Finally, it’s time for the big guns to come out. Both teams have gone against the trend by not blowing all their aces in the first few spots, and it’s interesting to see the picks that both teams have gone for in the crucial fourth spot (the last set that we’re guaranteed to see). Zest and sOs are both arguably the most well rounded players on their squads—proficient in all three matchups, while flexible enough to adapt to any player in the opposing lineup. Spend enough time on TL and you’ll have certainly been lured into a lecture from DLO about how Zest is the best PvP player to ever touch the game, and for good reason. Despite his perceived struggles early in the year, he’s still amassed a gargantuan 73% win rate in the protoss mirror in 2015 and is unbeaten offline since March. He simply seems to understand the ebb and flow of the famously unstable matchup better than anyone else, and he should be very content with his draw here. He sports a 7-2 series record against sOs, but it’s worth bearing in mind that both of those losses came in last year’s Proleague, with one of them coming in the playoffs. sOs’s cerebral approach to the game has got him in trouble at times this year as he sometimes tries to be too flashy for his own good, but he’s certainly a player for the big occasion, and it would be a fool who writes him off here. Expect shenanigans.

Life < Terraform LE > Maru

Ever since their blockbuster finals at IEM Taipei, people have been begging for a rematch at every opportunity between the two young prodigies of Starcraft, and they seem fated to only meet on the biggest of stages.

It's time.

Maru’s been the one who’s taken the two victories since; one each in the Proleague playoffs for Rounds 2 and 3, but their overall record remains a dead even 10-10. Both have looked unstoppable at points during the year, but even in their weakened states, this remains a blockbuster match. As ever in the current meta, the most pressing question is whether Maru will mech. It’s certainly the case that his sole mech win on Terraform over Rogue in the GSL on Friday seemed messy and rather fortuitous, but it’s also the case that Life’s anti-mech recently has looked pretty abysmal. For Maru, it’s a question of balancing his own strengths against his opponent’s weaknesses, and it will be interesting to see if his unconvincing play will tempt him to switch back to bio on Terraform tonight. It’s certainly a golden opportunity for him tonight, as Life has probably never looked weaker in ZvT [E/N: the references to one 2013 Dreamhack that will inevitably follow this claim are not original]. From his SSL quarterfinals loss to Dream in Season 2 to his GSL roasting in Season 3 at the hands of Bbyong, Life’s abysmal 1-10 series record showcased a sudden, alarming weakness in his once dominant ZvT. He’s since picked up a win against an unconvincing MMA in the Round 4 Playoffs, but he’ll have to do much more to restore his reputation.

The nature of Proleague may both help and hurt him in this scenario. A prepared build for a notorious mech map might take him far against an opponent opting for the mechanical avenue rather than the biological, but he is also a player known for dropping games in uncharacteristically sloppy fashion before finding his footing. In the playoffs, there is no room for such sloppiness.

Stats < Coda LE > Rogue

Our final matchup of the night pits two players together who’ve frustrated and delighted in equal measure this year. Both Stats and Rogue have looked capable of making that step up to championship level at times this year, but both have fallen down at crucial times. The difference between the Stats of the first half of the year and the second is profound; a winrate of 70% up until the end of April, contrasted with 53% in the months since, tells its own story. It’s baffling as to what’s caused this sudden drop in form, but faulty decision making in particular seems to be a major factor behind his losses, and he’s simply not playing as decisively as he did earlier in the year. Unlike Stats’s temporal dichotomy, Rogue’s split has come when comparing the first half of his tournament runs to the second. Making five Starleague quarterfinals out of six is a seriously impressive achievement; one that’s only mildly tempered by the fact that he’s managed to lose every single one of them [E/N: and hardly in graceful fashion]. While his ability to plan builds for specific maps has been proved time and again in the past, coping with the mindgames and long term series planning in BO5+ seems to be his undoing. Fortunately for Jin Air, Proleague is the format that Rogue seems to excel in, and assuming that he’s not been unduly affected by his defeat to Maru on Friday, the Sexy Boy should be favoured to pick up a win should we reach this stage.

Ace:
Echo LE

The ace match is where KT’s predictability may well come to haunt them again. It’s incredibly hard to see a scenario where Zest doesn’t come out should we reach this point, especially with Echo being so amenable to defensive protosses. Thus, Jin Air’s almost certainly prepared for this possibility, with an ace player already prepped to play here. Maru is the obvious pick, with his stellar TvP, but Zest’s excellent showings against terrans may tempt them to go for Rogue as an alternative option. However, despite picking up the latest two matches against the Jin Air ace, it's likely that Zest is still uncomfortable against the little terran's aggression—after all, prior to those wins, their head to head record this year was 7-0 in favour of Maru. If it comes to this point, KT fans had better hope that Zest has learned his lesson.

Match predictions

munch
Flash > Trap
TY > Pigbaby
Super < Cure
Zest > sOs
Life < Maru
Stats < Rogue
Zest > Maru
KT wins 4-3

Zealously
Flash < Trap
TY > Pigbaby
Super > Cure
Zest > sOs
Life > Maru
KT wins 4-1

Best of 3 Predictions

Zealously: KT 2-0 Jin Air
TheOneAboveU: KT 2-0 Jin Air
Destructicon: KT 2-1 Jin Air
Jer99: KT 2-1 Jin Air
munch: KT 2-1 Jin Air
The_Templar: KT 2-1 Jin Air
DarkLordOlli: KT 2-1 Jin Air

Writers: Zealously, munch
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Photo: Shayla, SpoTV, Turtle Entertainment
Editor(s): Zealously