EPTTop 50 streamers in August 2014 (abridged version) - Page 5
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Stijn
Netherlands363 Posts
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
I would say given that Avilo has twice as many viewers, he probably should have close to twice as many viewers as well. Thus, Wintherstarcraft actually just has around 500-600 viewers, which kinda makes sense because that was what he used to have. what? I don't understand what you mean tbh ^^ Idc about all that tbh, but (again...) why would twitch not ban him? If you can answer that with something plausible then we can discuss this "objectively" | ||
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Hider
Denmark9448 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:13 The_Red_Viper wrote: what? I don't understand what you mean tbh ^^ Idc about all that tbh, but (again...) why would twitch not ban him? If you can answer that with something plausible then we can discuss this "objectively" Should be pretty obvious that I meant twice as many twitter followers^^ I have no idea about Twitch policy, but I guess this doesn't hurt them in anyway, so they may not care - who knows. But rather, what makes sense to me is looking at metrics such as chat activity and twitter followers which you would expect has a very high correlation with viewer numbers and comparing them to other streamers. Since these metrics would predict viewer numbers closer to 500, it IMO seems very likely that that's what's his fair viewer count should be. On top of that, you see his volatile viewer count as someone outlined previosuly, and then there is also the question on why his stream ever should be so popular in the first place given the quality of his stream. As Incontrol pointed out on Unfiltered, it seems weird he should be so popular in the first place. Yes as Destiny answered he is a decent player and talks about, advertisies it a lot, which I guess could explain why he has 500 viewers. However, if you look at anyone having a viewer count above 500, they can do more than just talking. Streamers like Maximumblack and Destiny were "interesting in different ways", and the latter always had a higher quality. Everyone else have been at least GM while combining it with being famous for different reasons. I think Wintherstarcaft is the first master-league streamer who has been able to onsistently get above 500 viewers. Not that it's theroetically impossible to get that many viewers, however he doesn't just get slightly above 500, but around 4-5 times more than that. Moreover when his viewer count cannot be explained by looking at any other metrics as well, it seems much more likely that he doesn't actually have 2-3k viewers. | ||
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Apollo_Shards
1210 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:24 Hider wrote: Should be pretty obvious that I meant twice as many twitter followers^^ I have no idea about Twitch policy, but I guess this doesn't hurt them in anyway, so they may not care - who knows. But rather, what makes sense to me is looking at metrics such as chat activity and twitter followers which you would expect has a very high correlation with viewer numbers and comparing them to other streamers. Since these metrics would predict viewer numbers closer to 500, it IMO seems very likely that that's what's his fair viewer count should be. On top of that, you see his volatile viewer count as someone outlined previosuly, and then there is also the question on why his stream ever should be so popular in the first place given the quality of his stream. As Incontrol pointed out on Unfiltered, it seems weird he should be so popular in the first place. Yes as Destiny answered he is a decent player and talks about, advertisies it a lot, which I guess could explain why he has 500 viewers. However, if you look at anyone having a viewer count above 500, they can do more than just talking. Streamers like Maximumblack and Destiny were "interesting in different ways", and the latter always had a higher quality. Everyone else have been at least GM while combining it with being famous for different reasons. I think Wintherstarcaft is the first master-league streamer who has been able to onsistently get above 500 viewers. Not that it's theroetically impossible to get that many viewers, however he doesn't just get slightly above 500, but around 4-5 times more than that. Moreover when his viewer count cannot be explained by looking at any other metrics as well, it seems much more likely that he doesn't actually have 2-3k viewers. Huk has I think 41k followers on twitter but only gets like 400 viewers when he streams. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:24 Hider wrote: Should be pretty obvious that I meant twice as many twitter followers^^ I have no idea about Twitch policy, but I guess this doesn't hurt them in anyway, so they may not care - who knows. But rather, what makes sense to me is looking at metrics such as chat activity and twitter followers which you would expect has a very high correlation with viewer numbers and comparing them to other streamers. Since these metrics would predict viewer numbers closer to 500, it IMO seems very likely that that's what's his fair viewer count should be. On top of that, you see his volatile viewer count as someone outlined previosuly, and then there is also the question on why his stream ever should be so popular in the first place given the quality of his stream. As Incontrol pointed out on Unfiltered, it seems weird he should be so popular in the first place. Yes as Destiny answered he is a decent player and talks about, advertisies it a lot, which I guess could explain why he has 500 viewers. However, if you look at anyone having a viewer count above 500, they can do more than just talking. Streamers like Maximumblack and Destiny were "interesting in different ways", and the latter always had a higher quality. Everyone else have been at least GM while combining it with being famous for different reasons. I think Wintherstarcaft is the first master-league streamer who has been able to onsistently get above 500 viewers. Not that it's theroetically impossible to get that many viewers, however he doesn't just get slightly above 500, but around 4-5 times more than that. Moreover when his viewer count cannot be explained by looking at any other metrics as well, it seems much more likely that he doesn't actually have 2-3k viewers. See when i read your post i can see that you basically say: "hell he doesn't really deserve it, so he has to viewbot". I also don't quite understand what you say about twitter. Winter has 2.5k followers. If you look at the number of tweets avilo has 5 times as much, so he pushed it a lot more than winter did (maybe he started recently, i have no idea) If "twitch doesn't care" is your best answer, well ... As i said, the "haters" think he doesn't deserve it, then they search for anything that supports their claim even in the slightest way, it is kinda sad tbh. Did Avilo ever cast dreamhack? Cause winter did, that was the first time he got over 1k viewers as far as i remember. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:31 Apollo_Shards wrote: Huk has I think 41k followers on twitter but only gets like 400 viewers when he streams. Yeah he obviously has bought the twitter followers, if we compare these two metrics, meh. | ||
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brickrd
United States4894 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:24 Hider wrote: Should be pretty obvious that I meant twice as many twitter followers^^ I have no idea about Twitch policy, but I guess this doesn't hurt them in anyway, so they may not care - who knows. But rather, what makes sense to me is looking at metrics such as chat activity and twitter followers which you would expect has a very high correlation with viewer numbers and comparing them to other streamers. Since these metrics would predict viewer numbers closer to 500, it IMO seems very likely that that's what's his fair viewer count should be. On top of that, you see his volatile viewer count as someone outlined previosuly, and then there is also the question on why his stream ever should be so popular in the first place given the quality of his stream. As Incontrol pointed out on Unfiltered, it seems weird he should be so popular in the first place. Yes as Destiny answered he is a decent player and talks about, advertisies it a lot, which I guess could explain why he has 500 viewers. However, if you look at anyone having a viewer count above 500, they can do more than just talking. Streamers like Maximumblack and Destiny were "interesting in different ways", and the latter always had a higher quality. Everyone else have been at least GM while combining it with being famous for different reasons. I think Wintherstarcaft is the first master-league streamer who has been able to onsistently get above 500 viewers. Not that it's theroetically impossible to get that many viewers, however he doesn't just get slightly above 500, but around 4-5 times more than that. Moreover when his viewer count cannot be explained by looking at any other metrics as well, it seems much more likely that he doesn't actually have 2-3k viewers. yea i dont know much about him or have any particular opinion but i would think that if there were really something so special about him that he gets so many viewers there would be huge amounts of people in this thread/in the community constantly turning out to defend him and talk about why he's great to watch and why he's legit. if he's actually so popular that he gets several times the viewers of some of the most popular foreign stars/kespa players, who have tons of fans on TL, he would have tons MORE fans on TL, but the overwhelming attitudes are either "who?" or "oh, that viewbot guy." it's just simple logic... i mean i dont care to trash the guy and honestly i dont even care if he viewbots but it is so absolutely bizarre that the burden of proof really is on him the fact that he has 10k people blocked means absolutely nothing because its perfectly logical to assume that huge percentages of those people are one-time trolls who see him at the top of the list (which could be due to viewbotting or hearing rumors of viewbotting) and come in to talk shit, then never even click the stream | ||
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Hider
Denmark9448 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:31 Apollo_Shards wrote: Huk has I think 41k followers on twitter but only gets like 400 viewers when he streams. That was why I compared him to Avilo, because Huk, Incontrol, Nathanias etc. aren't comparable to Wintherstarcraft for a couple of reasons. Avilo and Wintherstarcraft are comparable in the sense that they were "nobody's" for a while and then rose to become popular streamers at roughly the same time. My bet is that followers on twitters consist of "core viewer numbers + people he used to be interested in the guy from years ago + "people that nterested in him for other reasons than watching his stream". Given the above formula, I wouldn't expect Wintherstarcraft to have lots of followers (so not comprable to Huk who previously was a much bigger name), however, he should have at least 2-3K followers since he has at least that many in core viewers. EDIT: So apparently Wintherstarcraft has 2 twitter accounts? One with 1k and another with 2.5k. https://twitter.com/StarcraftWinter https://twitter.com/WinterStarcraft | ||
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Stijn
Netherlands363 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:33 brickrd wrote: yea i dont know much about him or have any particular opinion but i would think that if there were really something so special about him that he gets so many viewers there would be huge amounts of people in this thread/in the community constantly turning out to defend him and talk about why he's great to watch and why he's legit. if he's actually so popular that he gets several times the viewers of some of the most popular foreign stars/kespa players, who have tons of fans on TL, he would have tons MORE fans on TL, but the overwhelming attitudes are either "who?" or "oh, that viewbot guy." it's just simple logic... i mean i dont care to trash the guy and honestly i dont even care if he viewbots but it is so absolutely bizarre that the burden of proof really is on him Maybe his audience and the TL crowd just don't overlap. There's lots of casual SC2 fans that don't check threads like this. TL visitors are generally speaking more interested in competitive players and tournament-level players, both things that Winter explicitly isn't (and doesn't aspire to be). | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:34 Hider wrote: That was why I compared him to Avilo, because Huk, Incontrol, Nathanias etc. aren't comparable to Wintherstarcraft for a couple of reasons. Avilo and Wintherstarcraft are comparable in the sense that they were "nobody's" for a while and then rose to become popular streamers at roughly the same time. My bet is that followers on twitters consist of "core viewer numbers + people he used to be interested in the guy from years ago + "people that nterested in him for other reasons than watching his stream". Given the above formula, I wouldn't expect Wintherstarcraft to have lots of followers (so not comprable to Huk who previously was a much bigger name), however, he should have at least 2-3K followers since he has at least that many in core viewers. He has 2.5k | ||
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brickrd
United States4894 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:36 Stijn wrote: Maybe his audience and the TL crowd just don't overlap. There's lots of casual SC2 fans that don't check threads like this. im not sure i really believe that there are "lots of casual sc2 fans" who watch/sub to streams but dont know about TL or wouldnt have any idea of the rumors or turn up to defend him. whoever these people are they would have to know about the accusations and more than like 1 or 2 people would be defending him whenever this topic comes up. even on the battle.net forums which are comparatively super casual and super low league i see people saying the same things: "who?"/"viewbotter" | ||
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Stijn
Netherlands363 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:34 Hider wrote: That was why I compared him to Avilo, because Huk, Incontrol, Nathanias etc. aren't comparable to Wintherstarcraft for a couple of reasons. Avilo and Wintherstarcraft are comparable in the sense that they were "nobody's" for a while and then rose to become popular streamers at roughly the same time. My bet is that followers on twitters consist of "core viewer numbers + people he used to be interested in the guy from years ago + "people that nterested in him for other reasons than watching his stream". Given the above formula, I wouldn't expect Wintherstarcraft to have lots of followers (so not comprable to Huk who previously was a much bigger name), however, he should have at least 2-3K followers since he has at least that many in core viewers. EDIT: So apparently Wintherstarcraft has 2 twitter accounts? One with 1k and another with 2.2k. https://twitter.com/StarcraftWinter https://twitter.com/WinterStarcraft The correlation between viewer numbers and twitter followers is absolutely meaningless. Maybe Winter doesn't advertise his Twitter as agressively as other people, maybe it's just a less interesting twitter account, maybe he changed Twitter accounts a while back (I think he did, actually), maybe a fairy did it. There's so many unknown variables in that equation that claiming that Winter's viewer average is not legit because he doesn't have enough Twitter followers is pretty ridiculous. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:38 brickrd wrote: im not sure i really believe that there are "lots of casual sc2 fans" who watch/sub to streams but dont know about TL or wouldnt have any idea of the rumors or turn up to defend him. whoever these people are they would have to know about the accusations and more than like 1 or 2 people would be defending him whenever this topic comes up. even on the battle.net forums which are comparatively super casual and super low league i see people saying the same things: "who?"/"viewbotter" Maybe they are just more intelligent than me and don't waste their time with people like you. I should do the same tbh, but hey i just can't stand this bs. | ||
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Hider
Denmark9448 Posts
He has 2.5k Yeh I looked into the wrong twitter account I guess. He has two accounts, one with 1k and another with 2.5k. It's still at the lowest end of what you would expect,and when you combine it his huge activity on Twitter, you would expect him to be somewhat above the minimum threshold (I guess in the range of 4-8k). | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:41 Hider wrote: Yeh I looked into the wrong twitter account I guess. He has two accounts, one with 1k and another with 2.5k. It's still at the lowest end of what you would expect,and when you combine it his huge activity on Twitter, you would expect him to be somewhat above the minimum threshold (I guess in the range of 4-8k). Oh so now you double your prediction cause your first one doesn't please you anymore. Yeah whatever man, as i said before, such a waste of time to argue with these anti winter fanatics. See you in another thread. | ||
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brickrd
United States4894 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:41 The_Red_Viper wrote: Maybe they are just more intelligent than me and don't waste their time with people like you. I should do the same tbh, but hey i just can't stand this bs. i didn't know occam's razor was considered "unintelligent," did i miss that memo? it requires far more mental gymnastics and random assumptions to think that there is a secret cabal of fans for this dude - who even describes himself as not that interesting or relevant - bigger than the amount of people who watch stephano stream yet don't post on TL or battle.net or anywhere visible to the community. its hilarious that youre getting so mad at me considering i dont even care if he viewbots and have no personal stake in this. im sure hes a nice dude, he seems alright from his posts, but being nice doesnt mean he doesnt do it. ^"anti winter fanatics" rofl you sound kind of deluded, like a conspiracy theorist. reminds me of when avilo said there is literally an "esports illuminati" out to get him | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:47 brickrd wrote: i didn't know occam's razor was considered "unintelligent," did i miss that memo? it requires far more mental gymnastics and random assumptions to think that there is a secret cabal of fans for this dude - who even describes himself as not that interesting or relevant - bigger than the amount of people who watch stephano stream yet don't post on TL or battle.net or anywhere visible to the community. its hilarious that youre getting so mad at me considering i dont even care if he viewbots and have no personal stake in this. im sure hes a nice dude, he seems alright from his posts, but being nice doesnt mean he doesnt do it. ^"anti winter fanatics" rofl you sound kind of deluded. No you need more assumptions to say he does viewbot. As i said several times before: Why doesn't twitch ban him. Now try to answer that question with the least amount of assumptions, huh, well he doesn't viewbot i guess. qed. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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Hider
Denmark9448 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:45 The_Red_Viper wrote: Oh so now you double your prediction cause your first one doesn't please you anymore. Yeah whatever man, as i said before, such a waste of time to argue with these anti winter fanatics. See you in another thread. No I am just looking objetively at the numbers and the facts, I don't care at all about Winterstarcraft. Unilke you it seems I am not bias'ed here and thus my emotions do not affect the assesment. If you reread my post you will see that my argument is consistent. 1k followers obviously made no sense at all when the absolute minimum value was 2-3k. Given that he has 2.5k followers, twitter followers are not completley out in line what you would expect, but is still somewhat below what you would expect. IF we use the Avilo-comparison which I originally set up, you will see that Avilo has 2.1k followers on Twitters and Winterstarcraft has 2.5k. Wintherstarcraft however has 3.5 times higher average viewer numbers. Thus, you would predict closer to 8K followers on twitters. Now obviously they aren't 100% comparable becasue you will see some extra guys just following Avilo so they can see him whine. However, given Winterstarcraft's overall activity on twitter, his twitter product seems relatively attractive relative to his stream quality. So you wouldn't expect that his ratio of Twitter followers/stream viewers be so low that it is. I challenge you to find other comparable streamers could be any game) which has a lower ratio of Twitter followers/average viewer count while maintaining a very active twitter account. | ||
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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On September 11 2014 22:53 Hider wrote: No I am just looking objetively at the numbers and the facts, I don't care at all about Winterstarcraft. Unilke you it seems I am not bias'ed here and thus my emotions do not affect the assesment. If you reread my post you will see that my argument is consistent. 1k followers obviously made no sense at all when the absolute minimum value was 2-3k. Given that he has 2.5k followers, twitter followers are not completley out in line what you would expect, but is still somewhat below what you would expect. IF we use the Avilo-comparison which I originally set up, you will see that Avilo has 2k followers on Twitters and Winterstarcraft has 2.5k. Wintherstarcraft however has 3.5 times higher average viewer numbers. Thus, you would predict closer to 8K followers on twitters. Now obviously they aren't 100% comparable becasue you will see some extra guys just following Avilo so they can see him whine. However, given Winterstarcraft's overall activity on twitter, his twitter product seems relatively attractive relative to his stream quality. So you wouldn't expect that his ratio of Twitter followers/stream viewers be so low that it is. I challenge you to find other comparable streamers could be any game) which has a lower ratio of Twitter followers/average viewer count while maintaining a very active twitter account. Yeah you are objective. I see. You only say in your posts he doesn't deserve it pretty much. How objective can that even be i have to ask you? Compare twitter to twitch all you want, this is absolutely worthless and you probably even know it. I am almost sure if winter would have these 8k followers and i would use that as an argument you would say: "well twitter followers can be bought too" and you wouldn't even be wrong. This is such a fucking stupid argument, i can't believe it comes from you tbh, i always thought you are better than that. | ||
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