SPL '13-14
Playoffs

Match 2 Recap
SKT comes back

Match 3 Preview
Who will advance?

Detailed information on
Liquipedia

By Soularion

CJ defied all doubts on Sunday night as they overcame SKT's seemingly insurmountable depth advantage and took Match 1. With a chance to upset the massive favorites and advance to the finals, CJ took on SKT in the all-kill format. Unfortunately, things did not go their way this time around as the multiple Proleague champions displayed the full might of their bench and took Match 2 in convincing fashion, forcing the third and deciding match tomorrow.

Dark < Merry Go Round LE > Hush
Fielding their go-to starter Dark for the third match in a row, this match seems like a rough draw for CJ. While Bunny has displayed an ability to keep up with even the best Zergs, the same cannot truly be said for Hush. Fortunately for the CJ Protoss (whose worst match-up happens to be PvZ), Dark's ZvP is significantly less deadly than his ZvT. Of course, given the caliber of opponents the SKT Zerg has faced it is difficult to say exactly how much weaker Dark is in vP, but whichever player can overcome his weakness in this match-up and take the win will likely be on the winning team by the time the match is over.

Classic < King Sejong Station LE > Sora
Sora makes his return after a long absence when CJ needs him the most. In line with how his career has looked right from the moment he appeared on the WCG stage, he faces one of the most difficult opponents possible, GSL champion Classic. Although Classic has been somewhat unstable in the PvP match-up from time to time (a recent loss to Creator raises some questions about his Bo1 prowess), there is little that can be said for Sora. Although he beat Parting 2-1 in the opening match in Code A, he followed his win up with dual 0-2 losses against Avenge and a vengeful Parting. As one of the most proficient late-game Protoss players, Sora's best chances may actually lie in forcing Classic to the late-game where they can square off in the air.

Make no mistake, the fact that Sora is being fielded in the deciding match - where every loss is one dangerous step towards elimination - means that CJ management at least has some confidence in his abilities. However, it has been a long time since Sora was last a reliable pick to upset players of Classic's calliber, and a standard game can only favor the SKT Protoss.

soO < Habitation Station LE > Hydra
How does one predict Hydra? If all games of Starcraft were played out only in the early game, Hydra would be a GSL champion. However, his late game weaknesses are both obvious and easily exploited. Facing the world's best ZvZ player in soO, Hydra needs to not only bring his A-game but likely some form of build to throw the three-time GSL finalist off. He pulled off a similar feat against Soulkey, where his hidden gas into ling speed with lings blocking Soulkey's drones from building a wall, but he will have to dig deep into his hat to find another trick of similar magnitude. soO is not a player easily thrown off (except in finals) nor one that is easy to exploit.

Rain < Outboxer > Bbyong
For the third match in a row, Bbyong faces a top-tier Protoss on Outboxer. By now, I can only assume that Bbyong is being repeatedly fielded on Outboxer because he performs well on the map in practice, and because the map is best suited for his TvP mech play. There are two possibilities for this match:

• Bbyong goes for mech one more time
  
• Rain expects mech and plays accordingly, but Bbyong goes for bio instead, outsmarting Rain.

Predicting second-grade mindgames of this kind is always difficult, and Bbyong does not seem the kind of player to attempt a mindgame like this. With this in mind, it seems likely that Bbyong will go for mech one more time. Provided Rain does not ask Classic for advice on how to fight it and scouts diligently, this match will be an uphill battle for the Station Attendant.

PartinG < Frost LE > herO
In a rematch from today's match, Parting takes on herO one more time. While their first match was plagued by misplays and questionable decision making, these are still two of the best Protoss players in the world. With a winrate of 60% for herO and 67% for Parting, this match might be the closest of the night. The pressure is on for herO more so than for Parting, because CJ's draws are much more difficult than the ones they received in Match 1. His best shot lies in playing a standard game given that Parting isn't a player to typically crack under aggression. If anything, the lategame might be where herO can outmatch Parting.

Alternatively, proxy a dark shrine.


Soulkey < Overgrowth LE > EffOrt

Although Effort and Hydra have a weird tendency to be clutch when it comes to important matches. While their regular round records are mediocre at best, these are both starleague champions (Effort OSL, Hydra MSL) and it actually shows from time to time. Fortunately for SKT, so is Soulkey. More importantly, he has won one in HotS and plays well consistently even outside high-pressure situations. After seeing Hydra catch Soulkey off guard in Match 1, I cannot completely discount the possibility that another prepared build may be coming Soulkey's way. However, with how all-around solid the GSL champion is, I must favor him in this match.

Ace:Merry Go Round LE
By now, it seems clear that CJ will field herO in the ace match in nearly every situation. While predicting who will come out for CJ is easy, it is significantly harder to do the same for SKT. Unless they decide to field soO - a decision that has proven unwise before - I feel that SKT has the advantage of preparation for an ace match. It is very likely that the CJ ace will be herO, while SKT's ace can be any one of Rain, Parting, Classic and Soulkey (and soO, but he embarrassed himself against herO). SKT has tended toward fielding Rain and Soulkey the most in ace situations over the course of the season, and both Rain - herO and Soulkey - herO seem like even matches, the first slightly favoring Rain and the second slightly favoring herO.

Of course, this also enables CJ to throw a curveball by not fielding herO, which SKT might anticipate in turn...


Prediction

Moreso than in the first match, SKT have received favorable draws this time around. If Hush can lead off with a win, this match is manageable for CJ. If not, CJ's hopes hinge on Hydra bringing out the MSL-Hydra and Bbyong pulling off whatever shenanigans he has prepared for Outboxer as well as possible. There are a lot of "ifs" and "buts" for CJ in this match whereas SKT simply needs to play on their usual level to be favored. Naturally, this is a significant advantage for oov's team, and CJ will need to bring something beyond their ordinary level to win this match.

Dark > Hush
Classic > Sora
soO > Hydra
Rain < Bbyong
Parting < herO
Soulkey > Effort

SK Telecom T1 win the series 2-1 and advance to the Grand Finals.

Writers: Zealously, Soularion
Images: shiroiusagi
Editor: Zealously