Thus far, WCS Europe has lived up to its reputation of being the most even and unpredictable region with NaNiwa and ForGG both getting eliminated in week one. Even Yoe.San, the recent ASUS ROG Winter champion, can't take Ro16 advancement for granted. Now, under normal circumstances, we'd call him a lock. Even in the old days before San was a champion, back when his propensity to choke rose linearly with the stakes of a match, he was still amazing in the lower, online stages of tournaments. Surely a championship-class San would have no trouble taking care of business in the Ro32 of WCS Europe?
However, San won't just be fighting his three opponents in this group. He's taking on the dreaded wall of Korea-Europe lag as well. San was in Europe for just long enough to play his Challenger match against elfi as well as IEM Cologne and ASUS ROG, but he has since returned to Korea. Just to remind you about what KR-EU lag can do, it was the only thing that prevented WCS Europe from becoming just like WCS America in 2013, and even saw ShoWTimE eliminate Mvp from the Premier league in Season 3.
At least the match-ups are good for San with two Zergs in his group. PvZ has been his best match-up for basically all of HotS as he has shown an uncanny ability to mesmerize opponents into making stupid decisions once they see his "san-gate" rush (4-gate zealots after expand). San has told us himself that he doesn't really understand why players keep falling for it, but as long as it keeps working he's not complaining.
Before he can get to the Zergs, San will have to take on a Terran player in France's Mill.Dayshi. PvT was once a problem match-up for San, but he's caught on with recent trends and improved noticeably. Dayshi's TvP hasn't been particularly impressive as of late – the same goes for anyone not named Polt – which makes things all the better for San.
Despite a rough initial match, Dayshi should be quite content to go up against two Zerg players in his group. Ever since the start of HotS, Dayshi's great macro and neverending attacks have made him one of Europe's top TvZ players. For what it's worth, he's even undefeated against his two potential Zerg opponents. In a very even WCS Europe region, it really is about as ideal a group comp as Dayshi could reasonably wish for.
So, let's meet those two Zergs who we've painted as being goners so far. First there's Fnatic.Miniraser, who might actually be a goner. Though there will be more than a few viewers who will be seeing Miniraser playing for the first time, the Swedish Zerg isn't exactly a newcomer as he's played at DreamHacks and other live tournaments in 2013. However, this will be his WCS Premier League debut. So far, our rule of "don't pick WCS first-timers to advance" rule-of-thumb has held up pretty well, so we're not optimistic about Miniraser's chances.
On the other hand,TargA is a veteran who has already shaken things up in WCS Europe. It might be easy to forget, but he's actually the seeded player in this group as he finished in the last season's top eight. Players like NaNiwa, Welmu, and Happy were some of Targa's victims before he ran into the wall of MC in the quarterfinals.
Thanks to the power of social media, we're particularly excited for the potential San vs. TargA match ahead of us:
We're as perplexed as TargA: How does San keep doing it? Have San's opponents simply been over-thinking things as San speculates? Will TargA just watch the complete replay packs from both ASUS ROG and IEM Cologne and break San's zealot timings down completely? Will San just change gears completely to throw his opponent off guard? It's a bit of an obscure match to get excited over, but we're looking forward to seeing these questions get answered.
Overall outlook and predictions: Even with the KR-EU disadvantage, we're picking San to get through one way or another. Think of it this way: if duckdeok can all-in his way through Challenger and the Ro32 to eventually claim a championship, then why can't San? As for the other spot, we like Dayshi's chances to ride his TvZ to the Ro16.
San > Dayshi TargA > Miniraser San > TargA Dayshi > Miniraser Dayshi > TargA
MANZENITH. The KR-EU lag may hinder him, but the onlineness of this round will be his boon! Dayshi! One of the foreign Terran hopes. And a cool guy, as I saw in HSC8! Targa and Miniraser I haven't seen much of lately, but that's due to a lack of time from me rather than a lack of games from them.
Dayshi has always made some very enjoyable games, I'd like to see him tear this group apart. I'd also be thrilled if Targa can beat San for the other spot.
Dayshi is really solid at TvZ and that will be the matchup he will play to qualify. I would never doubt San even with the lag... he's too used to play under these circumstances. Both Miniraiser and Targa had the time to prepare themselves without exposing too much (except maybe Targa in ZvZ), and as foreigners both are slightly underrated.
Personally I think that this is one of the most even groups of the current season, if we put some lag issues for San. The Man and Dayshi to advance seems reasonable, but personally I say San and Miniraiser.
Will San pull out something new? will he need to? I wonder if the Korea/Eu lag is going to kill his chance's of advancing. We need better lag from US/KR so we can have more foreigners winning in WCS :p
Just to remind you about what KR-EU lag can do, it was the only thing that prevented WCS Europe from becoming just like WCS America in 2013, and even saw ShoWTimE eliminate Mvp from the Premier league in Season 3.
Even that, eh? I think this is rather disrespectful to EU players in general and Showtime in particular. I can only assume by that reasoning that it was lag that kicked out Daisy and ForGG from PL as well.
On February 26 2014 01:49 Kon-Tiki wrote: Targa had better make sure he doesn't accidentally lose to that SanGate pressure. That would be very embarrassing.
A day of major upsets! I would've never imagined Dayshi taking out San!
Even that, eh? I think this is rather disrespectful to EU players in general and Showtime in particular. I can only assume by that reasoning that it was lag that kicked out Daisy and ForGG from PL as well.
He's right to a certain degree. Lag and delay can play a huge factor in these games. I haven't seen ForGG's or San's recent WCS Europe game (I don't even know whether or not they're in Korea at the moment), but a command made a split second too late can cost you the game depending on the situation.
On February 26 2014 01:53 Waxangel wrote: Just to remind you about what KR-EU lag can do, it was the only thing that prevented WCS Europe from becoming just like WCS America in 2013, and even saw ShoWTimE eliminate Mvp from the Premier league in Season 3.
On February 26 2014 01:53 BaneRiders wrote: Even that, eh? I think this is rather disrespectful to EU players in general and Showtime in particular. I can only assume by that reasoning that it was lag that kicked out Daisy and ForGG from PL as well.
He's right to a certain degree. Lag and delay can play a huge factor in these games. I haven't seen ForGG's or San's recent WCS Europe game (I don't even know whether or not they're in Korea at the moment), but a command made a split second too late can cost you the game depending on the situation.
"To a certain degree" doesn't go into a statement like that. Waxangel is basically saying that without current lag, Europe doesn't stand a chance and would be swallowed by a flood wave of Koreans right away. That is just not correct as the results from this season show: Quite a few Koreans being based in EU have been eliminated by Europeans already, be it in the qualification, the challenger league or the premier league first group stage. Waxangel, as a writer covering WCS EU, should know this. Yes, another round of Koreans have been eliminated while playing from KR. Because of lag only? I roll my eyes in his general direction.
EPT
TargA, 
San, 
Dayshi
Protoss (2): MC, BabyKnight
Terran (2): Bunny, jjakji,
Zerg (2): Nerchio, VortiX
San GOGOGO!!!
