EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 38
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote: Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon? Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four | ||
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Circumstance
United States11403 Posts
EDIT: Well, Yoda winning would actually tie Snute. | ||
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coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
On September 28 2014 11:03 Yakikorosu wrote: Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four ty | ||
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Koerage
Netherlands1220 Posts
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Tchiz
France6 Posts
On September 28 2014 19:03 Koerage wrote: should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot? Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance | ||
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On September 28 2014 19:15 Tchiz wrote: Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance The way the rule works is if there's a tie for placing WITHIN the top 16 (i.e., both players make it to Blizzcon in any case but you need a tiebreaker to determine their seed), the player with the most points from WCS events wins. But if there's a tie for getting INTO Blizzcon then you have what happened between NaNiwa and Revival last year and they'll play a tiebreaker series. | ||
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Koerage
Netherlands1220 Posts
On September 29 2014 01:04 Yakikorosu wrote: The way the rule works is if there's a tie for placing WITHIN the top 16 (i.e., both players make it to Blizzcon in any case but you need a tiebreaker to determine their seed), the player with the most points from WCS events wins. But if there's a tie for getting INTO Blizzcon then you have what happened between NaNiwa and Revival last year and they'll play a tiebreaker series. Snute's highest placement is 16th right? so that would mean a play-in thx for refreshing my memory anyway, didnt have the time to look it up | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
On September 28 2014 11:03 Yakikorosu wrote: Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four Pigbaby getting 2nd place is only enough to get into top 16 if he's only the only player below top 16 to win their respective WCS regions. For example if Innovation wins WCS KR, then he pushes Snute out and JD is #16 at 3200 and 3000 points from Pigbaby will not be enough to get top 16. | ||
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Madars
Latvia166 Posts
Started to think about this after DreamHack Soo vs Solar game 2 when Incontrol said if Solar wins, he has said "What a big deal it would be for him. A major tournament win here. Getting closer to Blizzcon. Kind of announcing to the World: Hey! I am Solar...." | ||
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On September 29 2014 22:17 Madars wrote: Could anyone explain how Solar can have more than 0% chance to go to Blizzcon? Started to think about this after DreamHack Soo vs Solar game 2 when Incontrol said if Solar wins, he has said "What a big deal it would be for him. A major tournament win here. Getting closer to Blizzcon. Kind of announcing to the World: Hey! I am Solar...." Solar does not have any chance go get into Blizzcon, he is ranked #18 and has no tournaments left to play in. Maybe Incontrol just meant that it's an achievement for Solar to "get close" to Blizzcon. | ||
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Dingodile
4139 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 29 2014 23:05 Dingodile wrote: Pretty sure that #14 is already qualified for Blizzcon? Yes, 14 people are confirmed to go at this point. WCS decides the other two. | ||
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Taari
Germany138 Posts
although this is very unlikely to happen. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote: golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs although this is very unlikely to happen. It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though. | ||
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sharkie
Austria18657 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote: It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though. I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though.. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:25 sharkie wrote: I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though.. Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this. | ||
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argonautdice
Canada2720 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:28 The_Templar wrote: Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this. I think the aligulac ratings fluctuating as time goes on also plays a factor | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote: It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though. I can't find a simulation that gives Golden a 100% for that, but I did find one that gave ~98.5% from 60 days ago ~ 2.78 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 98.45 % for comparison it's now ~ 7.27 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 31.18 % So if you assume that each match is 50/50 that means that about 6 or 7 relevant matches went against Golden's favor. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:45 argonautdice wrote: I think the aligulac ratings fluctuating as time goes on also plays a factor Sure, but Golden's aligulac rating has been pretty stable since then. On September 30 2014 01:46 Die4Ever wrote: I can't find a simulation that gives Golden a 100% for that, but I did find one that gave ~98.5% from 60 days ago ~ 2.78 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 98.45 % for comparison it's now ~ 7.27 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 31.18 % So if you assume that each match is 50/50 that means that about 6 or 7 relevant matches went against Golden's favor. I guess it was just a really high percentage. Interesting that the 1% seems to be happening  | ||
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