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WCS Predictor 2014 - Page 38

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Circumstance
Profile Blog Joined March 2014
United States11403 Posts
September 28 2014 01:02 GMT
#741
There are a total of 15 matches between us and Blizzcon. Boy, there's a thought, eh? Fifteen matches between us and the ultimate results. A mere fifteen matches until the dust settles and the bracket is ultimately set. And then only 15 more matches before we can crown a new world champion. Damn crazy.
The world is better when every background has a chance.
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
September 28 2014 02:03 GMT
#742
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote:
Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon?


Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM
Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS
Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players
Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals
Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four
Circumstance
Profile Blog Joined March 2014
United States11403 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-09-28 02:27:45
September 28 2014 02:26 GMT
#743
Yoda and Happy can also win WCS EU for JD/Snute to make it in.

EDIT: Well, Yoda winning would actually tie Snute.
The world is better when every background has a chance.
coverpunch
Profile Joined December 2011
United States2093 Posts
September 28 2014 02:45 GMT
#744
On September 28 2014 11:03 Yakikorosu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote:
Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon?


Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM
Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS
Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players
Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals
Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four

ty
Koerage
Profile Joined April 2012
Netherlands1220 Posts
September 28 2014 10:03 GMT
#745
should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot?
Tchiz
Profile Joined November 2012
France6 Posts
September 28 2014 10:15 GMT
#746
On September 28 2014 19:03 Koerage wrote:
should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot?


Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
September 28 2014 16:04 GMT
#747
On September 28 2014 19:15 Tchiz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2014 19:03 Koerage wrote:
should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot?


Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance


The way the rule works is if there's a tie for placing WITHIN the top 16 (i.e., both players make it to Blizzcon in any case but you need a tiebreaker to determine their seed), the player with the most points from WCS events wins. But if there's a tie for getting INTO Blizzcon then you have what happened between NaNiwa and Revival last year and they'll play a tiebreaker series.
Koerage
Profile Joined April 2012
Netherlands1220 Posts
September 28 2014 18:46 GMT
#748
On September 29 2014 01:04 Yakikorosu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2014 19:15 Tchiz wrote:
On September 28 2014 19:03 Koerage wrote:
should Yoda and Snute tie, does the player with more points from WCS seasons get the slot?


Last time they did a BO3/BO5 between the two contenders to see who will advance


The way the rule works is if there's a tie for placing WITHIN the top 16 (i.e., both players make it to Blizzcon in any case but you need a tiebreaker to determine their seed), the player with the most points from WCS events wins. But if there's a tie for getting INTO Blizzcon then you have what happened between NaNiwa and Revival last year and they'll play a tiebreaker series.


Snute's highest placement is 16th right? so that would mean a play-in
thx for refreshing my memory anyway, didnt have the time to look it up
movac
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada494 Posts
September 29 2014 04:32 GMT
#749
On September 28 2014 11:03 Yakikorosu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2014 09:34 coverpunch wrote:
Since there's only 12 players with a chance, can someone list the scenarios in which they get that #15 or #16 spot and go to Blizzcon?


Pigbaby is in if he gets to the finals in WCS AM
Scarlett, HerO, ForGG or Bunny are in if they win their WCS
Heart, HuK, YoDa, INnoVation and Golden need to win their WCS plus they need help from other players
Snute needs to have soO win WCS KR AND to have Polt HyuN or Bomber win WCS AM AND to have San, MC or MMA win WCS EU AND to have Pigbaby not get to the WCS AM finals
Jaedong I haven't done the math but I think he's the same as Snute except he needs to get three out of four conditions listed for Snute, whereas Snute needs all four


Pigbaby getting 2nd place is only enough to get into top 16 if he's only the only player below top 16 to win their respective WCS regions. For example if Innovation wins WCS KR, then he pushes Snute out and JD is #16 at 3200 and 3000 points from Pigbaby will not be enough to get top 16.
Madars
Profile Joined December 2011
Latvia166 Posts
September 29 2014 13:17 GMT
#750
Could anyone explain how Solar can have more than 0% chance to go to Blizzcon?

Started to think about this after DreamHack Soo vs Solar game 2 when Incontrol said if Solar wins, he has said
"What a big deal it would be for him. A major tournament win here. Getting closer to Blizzcon. Kind of announcing to the World: Hey! I am Solar...."
<3 Alexis Eusebio, Lee Shin Hyung, Choi Seong Hun, Joo Sung Wook, Jang Min Chul, Kim Yoo Jin, Lee Young Ho, Lee Shin Hyung, Yun Young Seo, Kim Joon Ho, Jeong Jong Hyeon, Eo Yoon Su, Johan Lucchesi, Ilyes Satouri
Yakikorosu
Profile Joined March 2013
1203 Posts
September 29 2014 14:01 GMT
#751
On September 29 2014 22:17 Madars wrote:
Could anyone explain how Solar can have more than 0% chance to go to Blizzcon?

Started to think about this after DreamHack Soo vs Solar game 2 when Incontrol said if Solar wins, he has said
"What a big deal it would be for him. A major tournament win here. Getting closer to Blizzcon. Kind of announcing to the World: Hey! I am Solar...."


Solar does not have any chance go get into Blizzcon, he is ranked #18 and has no tournaments left to play in. Maybe Incontrol just meant that it's an achievement for Solar to "get close" to Blizzcon.
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4133 Posts
September 29 2014 14:05 GMT
#752
Pretty sure that #14 is already qualified for Blizzcon?
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
September 29 2014 14:07 GMT
#753
On September 29 2014 23:05 Dingodile wrote:
Pretty sure that #14 is already qualified for Blizzcon?

Yes, 14 people are confirmed to go at this point. WCS decides the other two.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Taari
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany138 Posts
September 29 2014 16:19 GMT
#754
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.
Happy, herO, Neeb, Zest, uThermal, Welmu, Creator, VortiX, ShoWTimE
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
September 29 2014 16:23 GMT
#755
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
September 29 2014 16:25 GMT
#756
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.


I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
September 29 2014 16:28 GMT
#757
On September 30 2014 01:25 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.


I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..

Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
argonautdice
Profile Joined January 2013
Canada2718 Posts
September 29 2014 16:45 GMT
#758
On September 30 2014 01:28 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2014 01:25 sharkie wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.


I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..

Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this.

I think the aligulac ratings fluctuating as time goes on also plays a factor
very illegal and very uncool
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
September 29 2014 16:46 GMT
#759
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.

I can't find a simulation that gives Golden a 100% for that, but I did find one that gave ~98.5% from 60 days ago

~ 2.78 % of the time
Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 98.45 %

for comparison it's now

~ 7.27 % of the time
Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 31.18 %

So if you assume that each match is 50/50 that means that about 6 or 7 relevant matches went against Golden's favor.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-09-29 16:47:16
September 29 2014 16:46 GMT
#760
On September 30 2014 01:45 argonautdice wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2014 01:28 The_Templar wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:25 sharkie wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.


I think DH Moscow and Stockholm weren't even announced back then? I could be mistaken though..

Yes, but there were multiple placeholder tournaments to compensate for this.

I think the aligulac ratings fluctuating as time goes on also plays a factor

Sure, but Golden's aligulac rating has been pretty stable since then.

On September 30 2014 01:46 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2014 01:23 The_Templar wrote:
On September 30 2014 01:19 Taari wrote:
golden can go to blizzcon too, if he wins wcs europe, AND forgg/bunny are NOT in the finals AND pigbaby is not going to finals, AND hero/innovation/scarlett do not win their wcs

although this is very unlikely to happen.

It's weird, because I remember Golden having a 100% chance of going to blizzcon if he won WCS Europe this season, before the season started. Might have been extremely close to 100% though.

I can't find a simulation that gives Golden a 100% for that, but I did find one that gave ~98.5% from 60 days ago

~ 2.78 % of the time
Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 3.26 % to ~ 98.45 %

for comparison it's now

~ 7.27 % of the time
Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 2.27 % to ~ 31.18 %

So if you assume that each match is 50/50 that means that about 6 or 7 relevant matches went against Golden's favor.

I guess it was just a really high percentage. Interesting that the 1% seems to be happening
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
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