EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 40
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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Noam
Israel2209 Posts
Now Jaedong must rely on non Koreans. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
Biggest Winners   INnoVation went up by ~ 40.23 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 92.07 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %Biggest Losers  Jaedong went down by ~ 17.2 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.59 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %  Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.65 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 9.57 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.05 %WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 51.58 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 92.07 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 15.42 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.06 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 7.93 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 9.57 % chance overall. ~ 24.99 % chance for 1+ foreigner at Blizzcon ~ 1.63 % chance for 2 foreigners at Blizzcon Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.35 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 53.39 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.88 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] + Jaedong has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 51.58 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 50.6 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 49.26 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.47 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 43.88 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 41.14 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 40.49 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 40.49 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.48 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 38.28 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.65 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 35.05 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 34.12 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 34.11 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 29.07 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 27.67 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 27.1 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 25.28 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 25.28 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.44 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.76 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 21.7 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 20.94 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 20.07 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 19.32 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 18.21 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 17.78 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 17.71 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 15.65 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 15.63 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 14.3 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 13.25 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.91 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 12.21 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 12.18 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 10.3 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 9.64 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 9.44 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 8.72 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 8.53 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 8.39 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 7.93 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 7.61 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 7.11 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 6.68 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 6.05 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 5.99 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 5.81 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 5.51 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 5.5 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 5.5 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 5.36 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 3.27 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 2.92 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 2.83 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 2.35 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 2.16 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. HerO has a ~ 1.97 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 1.25 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. ForGG has a ~ 1.15 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Bunny has a ~ 1.04 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. Scarlett has a ~ 0.76 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Pigbaby has a ~ 0.72 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 0.49 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 0.24 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 43.88 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 43.4 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 41.06 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.69 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.66 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] + ~ 35.36 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 32.96 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.3 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.77 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.41 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.4 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.47 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.7 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 21.24 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.05 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.2 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.19 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.47 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.47 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.71 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.7 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.02 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.47 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.05 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.05 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.53 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.39 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.08 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.77 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.62 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.42 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.26 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.53 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.43 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.42 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.49 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.27 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.62 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.31 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.15 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.36 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.09 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.65 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.28 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.83 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.35 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.33 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.53 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.19 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.15 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.06 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see San vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.98 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.78 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.76 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.72 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. WCS EU Winning Gains Bunny would gain ~ 90.43 % if they win, with a ~ 9.57 % chance to win, going from ~ 9.57 % to ~ 100 % ForGG would gain ~ 81.14 % if they win, with a ~ 18.86 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.86 % to ~ 100 %WCS AM Winning Gains HerO would gain ~ 95.2 % if they win, with a ~ 4.8 % chance to win, going from ~ 4.8 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby would gain ~ 93.93 % if they win, with a ~ 6.07 % chance to win, going from ~ 6.07 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett would gain ~ 82.95 % if they win, with a ~ 17.05 % chance to win, going from ~ 17.05 % to ~ 100 %No one benefits from a 2nd place or less anymore. If Bunny/ForGG wins WCS EU AND HerO/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins WCS AM, then Innovation is out. If any of those above 5 players wins then Jaedong is out. Also Terran finally caught up with Protoss in the summed percentages. Terran ~ 38.78 % Protoss ~ 38.18 % Zerg ~ 23.04 % And SKT T1 is now the highest team on the teams summed percentages, even beating teamless. SKT T1 ~ 18.25 % teamless ~ 12.88 % mYinsanity ~ 12.5 % Acer ~ 7.32 % Liquid ~ 7.15 % Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv ----------------------- | ||
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SpikeStarcraft
Germany2095 Posts
Innovation falls out if Hero/Pigbaby/Scarlett wins AM AND ForGG/Bunny win EU. Innovation should be quite safe then without doing the exact math myself. EDIT: but i guess someone was a bit faster than me over me. | ||
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[PkF] Wire
France24239 Posts
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Boucot
France15997 Posts
On October 04 2014 20:47 Die4Ever wrote: ForGG went up by ~ 0.23 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %Step by step. | ||
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SpikeStarcraft
Germany2095 Posts
At least Pigbaby did win it once and i feel that Scarlett or Hero would at least have a chance under some lucky circumstances to make it through. Its not like they have to face someone they havent beaten at some point in their career in official matches. | ||
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sharkie
Austria18656 Posts
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Torrefy
41 Posts
On October 04 2014 20:44 Noam wrote: god damnit soO! You had ONE JOB! Now Jaedong must rely on non Koreans. Wat. Every player Jaedong needs to lose it playing a Korean opponent in their next match. | ||
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
Actually I'd love Die4Ever to explain this one: why does INnoVation winning make ForGG's chances of qualification go up at all? Maybe there's something I'm missing but that doesn't make sense to me. | ||
The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
On October 05 2014 02:46 Yakikorosu wrote: Actually I'd love Die4Ever to explain this one: why does INnoVation winning make ForGG's chances of qualification go up at all? Maybe there's something I'm missing but that doesn't make sense to me. I think it's the same, but the simulations gave a slightly different number the second time around? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 05 2014 02:46 Yakikorosu wrote: Actually I'd love Die4Ever to explain this one: why does INnoVation winning make ForGG's chances of qualification go up at all? Maybe there's something I'm missing but that doesn't make sense to me. That small change on ForGG's chances was just from Aligulac rating changes over the past 3/4 days. | ||
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movac
Canada494 Posts
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
On October 05 2014 03:15 movac wrote: i'm surprised scarlett's chances is higher than pigbaby. they both need to win WCS AM if they want to beat jaedong's ranking. but I guess it's just because scarlett is rated higher on aligulac. Ya, aligulac is pretty deceiving. Pigbaby has an actual shot at winning, Scarlett will be out next round for sure so she's a complete write off. Bunny has a okay chance though, I hope he does it. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
On October 05 2014 04:31 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Ya, aligulac is pretty deceiving. Pigbaby has an actual shot at winning, Scarlett will be out next round for sure so she's a complete write off. Bunny has a okay chance though, I hope he does it. uh huh | ||
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
Welp, RIP foreigners chance at Blizzcon | ||
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Koerage
Netherlands1220 Posts
On October 05 2014 04:50 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: Welp, RIP foreigners chance at Blizzcon its all on scarlett now  shame bunny didnt win against San  | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17737 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52798 Posts
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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