EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 39
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On September 30 2014 01:48 Die4Ever wrote: Dreamhack Stockholm and the GSL semifinals seems to have specifically hurt Golden's chances a lot since then. Also Golden really underperformed at Dreamhack Moscow, where he lost to Happy and Adonminus in the group stages and got no WCS points. | ||
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Taari
Germany138 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 30 2014 05:24 Taari wrote: Ironically, he has to play exactly this Happy in Ro8. Hopefully he's saving builds then, or he has no chance. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
Here's the current players with over 0% Blizzcon Chances.
WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,000 was at ~ 44.7 %) ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon (before DH Stockholm, 3,575 was the lowest with ~ 100 %) + Show Spoiler [All Cutoffs] + ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 15.56 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.6 % of the time 2,950 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.6 % of the time 2,975 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.72 % of the time 3,025 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.94 % of the time 3,050 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 19.94 % of the time 3,075 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,100 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,150 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 22.21 % of the time 3,175 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 68.79 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.83 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Foreigner Hope Scarlett ~ 15.65 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 17.43 % chance overall. Snute ~ 13.55 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 13.55 % chance overall. Bunny ~ 8.44 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 10.22 % chance overall. HuK ~ 1.04 % chance to be the only foreigner, ~ 1.04 % chance overall. ~ 40.46 % chances of 1+ foreigners at Blizzcon. ~ 1.78 % chances of 2 foreigners at Blizzcon. Likely Seeds StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 64.37 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 53.1 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 51.83 % chance to get the #1 seed at Blizzcon. + Show Spoiler [More] + Life has a ~ 50.99 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 49.11 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 46.58 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 44.35 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 44.34 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 42.01 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. Life has a ~ 40.84 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. HyuN has a ~ 38.37 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 37.75 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #7 seed at Blizzcon. TaeJa has a ~ 35.63 % chance to get the #6 seed at Blizzcon. San has a ~ 35.09 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. jjakji has a ~ 34.16 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. herO has a ~ 34.14 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Zest has a ~ 28.68 % chance to get the #2 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 28.03 % chance to get the #4 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 27.19 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. MMA has a ~ 25.08 % chance to get the #13 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 25.08 % chance to get the #12 seed at Blizzcon. Polt has a ~ 23.45 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. MC has a ~ 22.89 % chance to get the #3 seed at Blizzcon. Jaedong has a ~ 22.21 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. Bomber has a ~ 21.51 % chance to get the #5 seed at Blizzcon. Classic has a ~ 20.47 % chance to get the #14 seed at Blizzcon. Likely First Round Matches at WCS Finals ~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 40.43 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.12 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.11 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 33.2 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] + ~ 31.6 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 30.54 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.96 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.32 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.22 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.04 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.58 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.61 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.17 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.17 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.49 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 17.19 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.66 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.28 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.06 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.23 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.11 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.41 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.38 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.88 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.67 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.44 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.31 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.56 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.28 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.21 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.21 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.83 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.7 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.36 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.77 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.72 % chance to see TaeJa vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.24 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.14 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.82 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.76 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.36 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.26 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.03 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.03 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.74 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.16 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.15 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.76 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.69 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.62 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.61 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.29 % chance to see HyuN vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.15 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.13 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.11 % chance to see HyuN vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.04 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.04 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. GSL Finals preview! Starts in   INnoVation must win this!INnoVation, soO in GSL S3 Code S - INnoVation is at ~ 51.84 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.83 %.~ 43.55 % of the time INnoVation loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.------------------------------------------------- -  soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 43.55 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 56.45 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.INnoVation has a ~ 28.79 % chance to get the #15 seed at Blizzcon. INnoVation has a ~ 23.05 % chance to get the #16 seed at Blizzcon. ~ 24.22 % chance to see INnoVation vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 7.11 % chance to see INnoVation vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.77 % chance to see INnoVation vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.44 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.25 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.05 % chance to see INnoVation vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. soO has a ~ 63.16 % chance to get the #9 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 33.71 % chance to get the #10 seed at Blizzcon. soO has a ~ 3.13 % chance to get the #11 seed at Blizzcon. ~ 63.16 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 24.04 % chance to see soO vs TaeJa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.23 % chance to see soO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.52 % chance to see soO vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. Other predicted effects -If soO wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 91.84 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 31.11 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 5.19 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 5.09 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 4.62 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 8.66 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 2.39 % -If INnoVation wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.01 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % -Single events that hurt INnoVation ~ 4.81 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.1 % ~ 17.43 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.17 % ~ 6.07 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.2 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.45 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.46 % + Show Spoiler [More] + ~ 12.7 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 47.4 % ~ 15.47 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 47.51 % ~ 14.73 % of the time MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.5 % ~ 11.58 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.54 % ~ 27.24 % of the time HyuN gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 48.99 % ~ 23.19 % of the time HuK gets 4th in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.13 % ~ 34.16 % of the time Polt loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 against HerO This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.53 % ~ 56.34 % of the time Scarlett wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.87 % ~ 35.63 % of the time Pigbaby wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.88 % ~ 59.09 % of the time MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 against ForGG This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 49.92 % ~ 55.01 % of the time San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 against Bunny This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.04 % ~ 17.6 % of the time Bomber gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.67 % ~ 8.8 % of the time HerO gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.71 % ~ 34.32 % of the time Bunny gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.93 % ~ 15.41 % of the time Polt gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 50.98 % ~ 39.38 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 51.05 % ~ 20.98 % of the time MC gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 51.34 % Remember to check the website for much more frequent updates! http://sc2.4ever.tv ----------------------- | ||
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frogrubdown
1266 Posts
Anyway, one thing I've noticed both this year and last is that the expected point cut-offs for making it to Blizzcon always seem to move up, even without the addition of new events. Have I been paying attention to them selectively or does the system have a bias toward lower cut-offs? | ||
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shabby
Norway6402 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 01 2014 01:18 frogrubdown wrote: An INnoVation win would do a lot to clean things up. Anyway, one thing I've noticed both this year and last is that the expected point cut-offs for making it to Blizzcon always seem to move up, even without the addition of new events. Have I been paying attention to them selectively or does the system have a bias toward lower cut-offs? I think it's mostly because it has to give weak/unknown players a chance. For next year I want to tweak the match predictions so that every match is closer to 50/50 (lol sOs...), but I maybe want to curve it so that MUCH weaker players (like 1000 aligulac rating vs an 1800) are even more 1-sided. It will be a tough curve to balance I think, and it has the issue of a new unknown or underrated korean player suddenly winning GSL. | ||
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frogrubdown
1266 Posts
On October 01 2014 01:41 Die4Ever wrote: I think it's mostly because it has to give weak/unknown players a chance. For next year I want to tweak the match predictions so that every match is closer to 50/50 (lol sOs...), but I maybe want to curve it so that MUCH weaker players (like 1000 aligulac rating vs an 1800) are even more 1-sided. It will be a tough curve to balance I think, and it has the issue of a new unknown or underrated korean player suddenly winning GSL. Sounds good. Thanks for all your work keeping this the best thread on TL. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 01 2014 02:55 frogrubdown wrote: Sounds good. Thanks for all your work keeping this the best thread on TL. Thanks  | ||
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
Before GSL finals... + Show Spoiler [GSL Effects] + -If soO wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 91.84 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 31.11 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 5.19 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 5.09 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 4.62 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 8.66 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 2.39 % -If INnoVation wins... This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.01 % This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Bunny, ForGG, Golden, and YoDa can only make it to Blizzcon if they win 1st place. San, MC, and MMA are already confirmed.  Bunny would gain ~ 89.78 % if they win, with a ~ 10.22 % chance to win, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 100 % ForGG would gain ~ 81.37 % if they win, with a ~ 18.63 % chance to win, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 100 % Golden would gain ~ 28.91 % if they win, with a ~ 7.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 31.18 % YoDa would gain ~ 10.17 % if they win, with a ~ 16.51 % chance to win, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 12.18 %Golden and Yoda need Innovation to lose the GSL finals, and they also depend on many other events... + Show Spoiler [Golden Events] + ~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 28.23 % of the time Happy gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 56.45 % of the time soO doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 17.43 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 16.51 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 15.47 % of the time YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 14.73 % of the time MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 12.7 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 6.07 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % ~ 4.81 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % + Show Spoiler [Yoda Events] + ~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation gets 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 56.45 % of the time soO doesn't get 1st in GSL S3 Code S This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 20.98 % of the time MC gets 4th in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 17.43 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 14.73 % of the time MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 12.7 % of the time Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 11.58 % of the time Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 8.34 % of the time Pigbaby gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 7.98 % of the time Heart gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 7.25 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 6.07 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 4.81 % of the time HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % ~ 4.64 % of the time HuK gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change YoDa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 % + Show Spoiler [Other Events] + ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % ~ 7.25 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % ~ 7.25 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % ~ 16.51 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 1.63 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 3.47 % ~ 16.51 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 3.47 % ~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 3.47 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 3.48 % ~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 3.48 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.06 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.07 % ~ 7.25 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.09 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 7.82 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 7.85 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 24.35 % ~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 24.36 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 24.36 % ~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 24.37 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 31.23 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 31.25 % ~ 18.63 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.45 % ~ 10.22 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 40.46 % ~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 56.39 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 56.43 % ~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 56.43 % ~ 16.51 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 56.47 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 56.49 % ~ 7.25 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 56.49 % ~ 16.51 % of the time YoDa gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 83.98 % ~ 7.25 % of the time Golden gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 84.01 % ~ 12.74 % of the time MC gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 84.01 % ~ 14.07 % of the time San gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 84.02 % ~ 9.01 % of the time Happy gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 84.03 % ~ 11.57 % of the time MMA gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 84.04 % | ||
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argonautdice
Canada2719 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 18 2014 12:33 Die4Ever wrote: --------UPDATE Thursday, Sep 18 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Quarterfinals Set! INnoVation would gain ~ 69.18 % if they win [the GSL], with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win [the GSL], going from ~ 30.82 % to ~ 99.99 %What happened to this? >.> Now it's a 91.83% chance if he wins the GSL. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/436957-wcs-predictor-2014?page=28#555 | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 03 2014 22:42 The_Templar wrote: What happened to this? >.> Now it's a 91.83% chance if he wins the GSL. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/436957-wcs-predictor-2014?page=28#555 the day after that, the DH Stockholm player list was set, which changed him to this INnoVation would gain ~ 68.91 % if they win, with a ~ 30.76 % chance to win, going from ~ 30.62 % to ~ 99.54 % Innovation not going to DH Stockholm wasn't actually the main problem though, it was mostly because a lot of players who actually needed WCS points went, players who could hurt Innovation's chances, and they did. This was kind of a perfect storm of players to hurt Innovation, this combination of players had a very low chance of occurring in terms of a random picking, of course it wasn't a random occurrence because they actually wanted WCS points. Not sure how to fix that issue of random player selection without biasing the stats. and then after Red Bull Washington INnoVation has a ~ 31.99 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 31.77 % to ~ 99.31 % Not so bad and now after DH Stockholm ~ 56.45 % of the time INnoVation wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 91.83 %. So yea DH Stockholm hurt him a bit, with Life, MMA, herO, soO, and Classic all securing their spots. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
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movac
Canada494 Posts
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Koerage
Netherlands1220 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Innovation wins! Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 40.24 %, going from ~ 51.84 % to ~ 92.07 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.22 %, going from ~ 18.63 % to ~ 18.86 %Biggest Losers Jaedong went down by ~ 17.24 %, going from ~ 68.79 % to ~ 51.55 % Snute went down by ~ 13.55 %, going from ~ 13.55 % to ~ 0 % Golden went down by ~ 2.26 %, going from ~ 2.26 % to ~ 0 % Heart went down by ~ 2.22 %, going from ~ 2.22 % to ~ 0 % YoDa went down by ~ 2.01 %, going from ~ 2.01 % to ~ 0 %  Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.12 %, going from ~ 7.2 % to ~ 6.08 % HuK went down by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.04 % to ~ 0 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 10.22 % to ~ 9.58 % Scarlett went down by ~ 0.37 %, going from ~ 17.43 % to ~ 17.06 %Snute, Golden, Heart, Yoda, and Huk are eliminated! Remaining players
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Die4Ever
United States17683 Posts
On October 04 2014 20:14 Koerage wrote: Huk Yoda Snute Heart and Golden are now out - and Innovation is in unless pigbaby wins WCS America (at least, i think so) some 0% scenarios for Innovation ~ 3.21 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.64 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.15 % of the time Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.9 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and HerO gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 2.04 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Pigbaby loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.99 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.95 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Polt wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.69 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.52 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.26 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Polt loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.21 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and San wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.17 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Pigbaby wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 1.09 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and YoDa gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.95 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Polt gets 2nd in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.88 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.86 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Happy gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.76 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MMA wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.69 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and MC gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % ~ 0.57 % of the time ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and Golden gets 2nd in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 92.07 % to ~ 0 % | ||
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