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digmouse
China6330 Posts
On September 28 2014 00:41 Ovid wrote: So if Innovation wins we are very unlikely to see Jaedong at blizzcon? If Innovation wins he will knock Snute out entirely and put JD at #16, if you have any other guys below him winning another WCS, JD is out as well. | ||
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William paradise
1753 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
WCS Predictor 2014 DreamHack Stockholm Semifinals Biggest changes this tournament so far (and Innovation vs Cure) + Show Spoiler [Changes] + Biggest Winners   INnoVation went up by ~ 19.07 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 50.82 % MMA went up by ~ 12.77 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 %  Jaedong went up by ~ 8.13 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 67.83 %  herO went up by ~ 4.9 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % Life went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 100 % ForGG went up by ~ 2.31 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 22.05 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.38 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.41 %Biggest Losers  Snute went down by ~ 32.69 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 12.19 % YoDa went down by ~ 8.03 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 1.7 % Golden went down by ~ 4.7 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 2.05 % Heart went down by ~ 2.43 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.19 % HerO went down by ~ 2.41 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 4.77 % HuK went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 0.92 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.93 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.17 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.46 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 10.9 %WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 13.89 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 17.64 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 21.88 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 67.83 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.92 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon Top 25 Chances + Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +
Starts in soO, ForGG in DreamHack Stockholm soO has the #2 headband!This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 55.08 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 44.92 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - ForGG is at ~ 22.05 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 44.92 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 27.31 %.~ 55.08 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 17.76 %.Starts in herO, Solar DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 51.62 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 48.38 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 48.38 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 51.62 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Winning Chances herO has a ~ 31.2 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO has a ~ 25.72 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 23.79 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % ForGG has a ~ 19.29 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 22.05 % to ~ 35.79 %Winning Gains ForGG would gain ~ 13.75 % if they win, with a ~ 19.29 % chance to win, going from ~ 22.05 % to ~ 35.79 % herO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 31.2 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % soO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 25.72 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 23.79 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %+ Show Spoiler [Other Events] + Using filters "single other positive notor" ~ 44.94 % of the time ForGG wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro4 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 9.99 % ~ 55.06 % of the time soO wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro4 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.19 % to ~ 13.99 % | ||
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digmouse
China6330 Posts
On September 28 2014 00:51 William paradise wrote: so Bunny and Scarlett can make it if they both win WCS? Yes, if they win their respective WCS regions they will knock out JD and Snute, if Innovation wins GSL then he will also be knocked out at #17. + Show Spoiler + But you and I both know it is very unlikely for both to happen  | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 28 2014 00:51 William paradise wrote: so Bunny and Scarlett can make it if they both win WCS? yep ~ 10.9 % of the time Bunny gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.9 % to ~ 100 % ~ 17.39 % of the time Scarlett gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 17.39 % to ~ 100 % | ||
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Yakikorosu
1203 Posts
On September 28 2014 00:51 William paradise wrote: so Bunny and Scarlett can make it if they both win WCS? Yes, if either of them wins they are definitely in. But if anything else occurs they are out (i.e., second place doesn't help them at all) | ||
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amam
5 Posts
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sharkie
Austria18624 Posts
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amam
5 Posts
On September 28 2014 01:11 sharkie wrote: Realistically speaking Snute will probably finish #17 huh? Yeah, but if ForGG beats soo now in DH, then Snute probably finishes 18. | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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Dingodile
4139 Posts
On September 28 2014 02:02 asongdotnet wrote: wow if innovation and someone from outside the top16 wins their respective WCS regions, JD will be knocked out by 25 points! at least 75pts . Life is 50pts ahead but earned more pts in actual wcs. | ||
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amam
5 Posts
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
On September 28 2014 05:50 SNSeigifried wrote: So now StarDust is guarantee #8 seed.And will most likely be playing soO unless MMA wins wcs eu nice catch StarDust has a ~ 100 % chance to get the #8 seed at Blizzcon. ~ 64.65 % chance to see StarDust vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.42 % chance to see StarDust vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.9 % chance to see StarDust vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.72 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.85 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.47 % chance to see StarDust vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17727 Posts
Players With a Chance
Now the top 14 spots are all ~ 100 %! Biggest changes this tournament (and Innovation vs Cure...) Biggest Winners INnoVation went up by ~ 16.52 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 48.27 % MMA went up by ~ 12.77 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong went up by ~ 10.01 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 69.7 % herO went up by ~ 4.9 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 100 % Life went up by ~ 3.31 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 100 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.41 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.45 % ForGG went up by ~ 0.21 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 19.94 %Look at all those biggest winners hitting ~ 100 %, glorious. Biggest Losers Snute went down by ~ 30.36 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 14.52 % YoDa went down by ~ 7.58 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 2.15 % Golden went down by ~ 4.4 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 2.35 % HerO went down by ~ 2.37 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 4.81 % Heart went down by ~ 2.24 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 2.38 % Bunny went down by ~ 1.33 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 10.03 % HuK went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 1.12 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.82 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.28 %WCS Point Cutoffs ~ 0 % of the time 2,900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 16.67 % of the time 2,925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 18.99 % of the time 3,000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 23.73 % of the time 3,125 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 69.7 % of the time 3,200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 91.52 % of the time 3,225 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon ~ 100 % of the time 3,250 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon The most likely first round matches at the WCS Finals ~ 64.63 % chance to see soO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 39.99 % chance to see Life vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.65 % chance to see Life vs HyuN in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 36.22 % chance to see MC vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 33.43 % chance to see San vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [More] + ~ 31.78 % chance to see jjakji vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 31.07 % chance to see HyuN vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 26.63 % chance to see MMA vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.25 % chance to see TaeJa vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 25.24 % chance to see TaeJa vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.58 % chance to see Polt vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 23.08 % chance to see TaeJa vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 22.54 % chance to see HyuN vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 20.6 % chance to see Classic vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.13 % chance to see Bomber vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 19.11 % chance to see Bomber vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 18.71 % chance to see MMA vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 16.43 % chance to see MMA vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.69 % chance to see Polt vs jjakji in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 14.22 % chance to see TaeJa vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 13.03 % chance to see Polt vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 12.09 % chance to see Polt vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 11.75 % chance to see Bomber vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.37 % chance to see Life vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 10.3 % chance to see San vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. + Show Spoiler [Event More] + ~ 9.9 % chance to see ForGG vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.64 % chance to see Life vs Polt in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.54 % chance to see Polt vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 9.3 % chance to see Bomber vs Classic in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.66 % chance to see Bomber vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.25 % chance to see Bomber vs MMA in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.16 % chance to see jjakji vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 8.15 % chance to see MC vs herO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.81 % chance to see San vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.76 % chance to see MC vs Jaedong in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.71 % chance to see Polt vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.63 % chance to see TaeJa vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 6.23 % chance to see MMA vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.45 % chance to see Bomber vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.26 % chance to see Polt vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 5.03 % chance to see INnoVation vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.85 % chance to see Scarlett vs MC in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.81 % chance to see INnoVation vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.72 % chance to see StarDust vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.62 % chance to see HyuN vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.32 % chance to see Jaedong vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 4.04 % chance to see Polt vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.72 % chance to see MC vs INnoVation in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.44 % chance to see TaeJa vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.41 % chance to see Bomber vs ForGG in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 3.36 % chance to see Bomber vs Scarlett in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.9 % chance to see Bomber vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.84 % chance to see StarDust vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.39 % chance to see Life vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.36 % chance to see Scarlett vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.31 % chance to see MC vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 2.31 % chance to see Bomber vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.81 % chance to see TaeJa vs HerO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.73 % chance to see Bomber vs Bunny in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.61 % chance to see Scarlett vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.48 % chance to see HerO vs StarDust in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.38 % chance to see HyuN vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.24 % chance to see San vs Snute in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.17 % chance to see HerO vs Bomber in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.16 % chance to see HyuN vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.09 % chance to see HyuN vs Pigbaby in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see herO vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 1.02 % chance to see jjakji vs Zest in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.96 % chance to see Life vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.84 % chance to see HyuN vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.77 % chance to see Polt vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.65 % chance to see Polt vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.4 % chance to see San vs soO in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.4 % chance to see Bomber vs YoDa in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.32 % chance to see Bomber vs Golden in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.24 % chance to see Heart vs San in the first round of the WCS Finals. ~ 0.13 % chance to see MC vs Heart in the first round of the WCS Finals. http://sc2.4ever.tv/ 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nimdil
Poland3753 Posts
HuK needs to win WCS AM which would land him at 16th and seriously needs no other player to surpass Snute - like INnoVation needs to lose to soO. Scarlett also needs to win WCS AM but she should be safe from other players' jumps - kind of like Bunny. I'm not sure which one of them has easier path, not to mention that no foreigner was in WCS final since Stephano. Snute stands still so he needs for the above mentioned players to not qualify, for INnoVation not to win GSL, for WCS EU the winner can't be Golden, Bunny, ForGG (Yoda winning WCS EU would tie Snute) and for WCS AM it can't be Heart, HerO, Pigbaby (he can't even get to final), HuK, Scarlett. So in essence Snute's chances are the highest as for Scarlett, HuK and Bunny - they need to make history. For Snute - soO need to break the curse and in the other regions favorites should just win (like Bomber/Polt and MMA/San in EU - ideally if all Season 2 runners-up will become Season 3 champions, Snute goes to Blizzcon). | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
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Bagration
United States18282 Posts
On September 28 2014 08:51 Vindicare605 wrote: So if Innovation wins GSL he's in for sure is that correct? yes | ||
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coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 28 2014 08:51 Vindicare605 wrote: So if Innovation wins GSL he's in for sure is that correct? No, he is at 91.5% which means he can still be passed. | ||
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