EPTWCS Predictor 2014 - Page 35
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Bagration
United States18282 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
On September 27 2014 05:31 Bagration wrote: MMA making the top 16 at DH means that he's basically set for Blizzcon short of some strange turn of events right? yep that puts him at ~ 92.21 % if he loses in ro16, right now he's at ~ 96.31 % after winning his group and Snute just lost so he's down to ~ 10.48 %! | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
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William paradise
1753 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
On September 27 2014 05:39 William paradise wrote: ok wait incontrol said with snute losing this would be the first Blizzcon without a foreigner, aren't there others out there that can still get in even if JD MMA and Inno win? yea there's certainly still a possibility of a foreigner at Blizzcon http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player_set&countries=nonkorean (this is not yet updated with Snute's loss yet, will be updated when the round of 16 bracket is set) Snute actually still has a chance even after losing too ~ 44.67 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 10.48 % ~ 19.01 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and San wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 % ~ 19.01 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and Bunny loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 and Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 % ~ 20.21 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and San wins their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 % ~ 20.21 % of the time Snute loses their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro32 and Bunny loses their next match in WCS EU S3 Premier ro8 This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 41.51 % to ~ 14.01 % | ||
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asongdotnet
United States1060 Posts
On September 27 2014 05:39 William paradise wrote: ok wait incontrol said with snute losing this would be the first Blizzcon without a foreigner, aren't there others out there that can still get in even if JD MMA and Inno win? snute has to basically pray that none of the pigbaby/bunny/hero/inno/forgg/scar wins their wcs regions | ||
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SNSeigifried
United States1640 Posts
soO to win GSL Bomber/HyuN/Polt to win WCS NA He also needs bunny not to make past round of 16 at dreamhack or round of 8 wcs eu. #LivingOnTheEdge | ||
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absinthfee
Germany718 Posts
On September 27 2014 05:51 SNSeigifried wrote: Snute needs San/MC/MMA to win WCS EU soO to win GSL Bomber/HyuN/Polt to win WCS NA He also needs bunny not to make past round of 16 at dreamhack or round of 8 wcs eu. #LivingOnTheEdge But if Bunny makes it in at least we still have a foreigner. | ||
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amam
5 Posts
On September 27 2014 06:29 absinthfee wrote: But if Bunny makes it in at least we still have a foreigner. Bunny possibilities are actually either 1) Win WCS EU 2) Get 2nd at WCS EU and TOP4 at DH Stockholm 3) Get Semi Final at WCS EU and Win DH Stockholm So actually not that likely. Best shot seems option 2 for me. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Biggest winners and losers so far this tournament (and Innovation vs Cure) Biggest Winners   INnoVation went up by ~ 20.81 %, going from ~ 31.75 % to ~ 52.56 %  Jaedong went up by ~ 12.74 %, going from ~ 59.7 % to ~ 72.44 % MMA went up by ~ 7.21 %, going from ~ 87.23 % to ~ 94.44 %  herO went up by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 95.1 % to ~ 98.09 % Life went up by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 96.69 % to ~ 99.39 % soO went up by ~ 1.51 %, going from ~ 98.49 % to ~ 100 % ForGG went up by ~ 1.34 %, going from ~ 19.74 % to ~ 21.08 % Bunny went up by ~ 0.81 %, going from ~ 11.37 % to ~ 12.18 % Classic went up by ~ 0.52 %, going from ~ 99.48 % to ~ 100 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.3 %, going from ~ 17.04 % to ~ 17.34 %soO is now ~ 100 %! Biggest Losers  Snute went down by ~ 33.86 %, going from ~ 44.88 % to ~ 11.02 % YoDa went down by ~ 7.98 %, going from ~ 9.73 % to ~ 1.75 % Heart went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 4.62 % to ~ 1.92 % Golden went down by ~ 2.49 %, going from ~ 6.75 % to ~ 4.26 % HerO went down by ~ 1.54 %, going from ~ 7.18 % to ~ 5.64 % HuK went down by ~ 1.24 %, going from ~ 2.11 % to ~ 0.87 % Pigbaby went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 8.1 % to ~ 7.02 %Starts in + Show Spoiler [jjakji, Patience in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - jjakji is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 52.6 % of the time jjakji wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 47.4 % of the time jjakji loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 47.4 % of the time Patience wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 52.6 % of the time Patience loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Starts in soO has the #2 headband!This is a match for the #2 headband! + Show Spoiler [soO, Ryung in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - soO is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 59.72 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 40.28 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - Ryung is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 40.28 % of the time Ryung wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 59.72 % of the time Ryung loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [ForGG, Polt in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - ForGG is at ~ 21.06 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 57.7 % of the time ForGG wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.45 %.~ 42.3 % of the time ForGG loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 19.17 %.------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 42.3 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 57.7 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.Starts in This match is important for MMA!+ Show Spoiler [MMA, MaNa in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - MMA is at ~ 94.44 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 57.79 % of the time MMA wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 42.21 % of the time MMA loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 86.83 %.------------------------------------------------- -  MaNa is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 42.21 % of the time MaNa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 57.79 % of the time MaNa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [herO, Life in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - herO is at ~ 98.09 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 56.09 % of the time herO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 43.91 % of the time herO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 95.66 %.------------------------------------------------- - Life is at ~ 99.39 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 43.91 % of the time Life wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 56.09 % of the time Life loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 98.91 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [Sacsri, TRUE in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - Sacsri is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 54.77 % of the time Sacsri wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 45.23 % of the time Sacsri loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 45.23 % of the time TRUE wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 54.77 % of the time TRUE loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Starts in This match is important for Jaedong!+ Show Spoiler [Classic, Jaedong in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - Classic is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 55.53 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %.~ 44.47 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %.------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 72.43 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 44.47 % of the time Jaedong wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 85.83 %.~ 55.53 % of the time Jaedong loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 61.7 %.Starts in + Show Spoiler [Bunny, Solar in DreamHack Stockholm] + DreamHack Stockholm - Bunny is at ~ 12.2 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 52.55 % of the time Bunny wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 14.1 %.~ 47.45 % of the time Bunny loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 10.1 %.------------------------------------------------- - Solar is at ~ 0 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014~ 47.45 % of the time Solar wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0 %.~ 52.55 % of the time Solar loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0 %.Winning Chances herO has a ~ 9.64 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 98.09 % to ~ 100 % ForGG has a ~ 9.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.06 % to ~ 36.99 % jjakji has a ~ 8.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri has a ~ 7.54 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % soO has a ~ 7.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Bunny has a ~ 7.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.2 % to ~ 30.41 % Life has a ~ 6.94 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.39 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 6.75 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 94.44 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 6.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar has a ~ 6.43 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Classic has a ~ 6.26 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience has a ~ 6.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Jaedong has a ~ 3.88 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 72.43 % to ~ 100 % TRUE has a ~ 3.6 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung has a ~ 2.25 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa has a ~ 2.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 %Winning Gains Jaedong would gain ~ 27.57 % if they win, with a ~ 3.88 % chance to win, going from ~ 72.43 % to ~ 100 % Bunny would gain ~ 18.21 % if they win, with a ~ 7.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 12.2 % to ~ 30.41 % ForGG would gain ~ 15.93 % if they win, with a ~ 9.1 % chance to win, going from ~ 21.06 % to ~ 36.99 % MMA would gain ~ 5.56 % if they win, with a ~ 6.75 % chance to win, going from ~ 94.44 % to ~ 100 % herO would gain ~ 1.91 % if they win, with a ~ 9.64 % chance to win, going from ~ 98.09 % to ~ 100 % Life would gain ~ 0.61 % if they win, with a ~ 6.94 % chance to win, going from ~ 99.39 % to ~ 100 % jjakji would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 8.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Sacsri would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.54 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % soO would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 7.32 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.49 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Solar would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.43 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Classic would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.26 % chance to win, going from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Patience would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 6.15 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % TRUE would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 3.6 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % Ryung would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.25 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % MaNa would gain ~ 0 % if they win, with a ~ 2.21 % chance to win, going from ~ 0 % to ~ 0 % | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
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Superbanana
2369 Posts
edit: oh wait aligulac gives better chance for Scarlett :o | ||
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AWalker9
United Kingdom7229 Posts
On September 27 2014 06:59 The_Templar wrote: soO at 100%? Good, now he can lose GSL finals safely. He's gonna win it all  | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
An innovative thought | ||
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SetGuitarsToKill
Canada28396 Posts
It's soO not gonna happen though :/ | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
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amam
5 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17671 Posts
Before, using the event filters "single positive notor", Huk had events like this + Show Spoiler [examples] + ~ 40.33 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 % ~ 59.67 % of the time HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % ~ 40.33 % of the time HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 % ~ 59.67 % of the time HyuN wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % and events like this + Show Spoiler [More Examples] + ~ 43.57 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 % ~ 43.57 % of the time INnoVation loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 % ~ 56.43 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % ~ 56.43 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % But now it's fixed to favor the current player like Huk winning and Huk losing, so it removes the events for Hyun winning and Hyun losing against Huk, and then after that it favors the winning event so it has soO winning and Innovation winning but it ditches the events for them losing. This works just by finding events that have the same exact number of occurances in the initial block (the first 500,000 samples) and also result in the exact same Blizzcon chances for that player, and then it picks the one with the highest score. This should make it much easier to read especially with the grouped events. I hope you like the change! Will be writing a bit to preview Dreamhack Stockholm Day 2 soon. | ||
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William paradise
1753 Posts
On September 27 2014 09:01 Die4Ever wrote: Sorry about the delay guys, I was just making an improvement to remove duplicate events such as Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A). For example we can look at Huk. Before, using the event filters "single positive notor", Huk had events like this + Show Spoiler [examples] + ~ 40.33 % of the time HuK wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 % ~ 59.67 % of the time HuK loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % ~ 40.33 % of the time HyuN loses their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.47 % ~ 59.67 % of the time HyuN wins their next match in WCS AM S3 Premier ro8 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % and events like this + Show Spoiler [More Examples] + ~ 43.57 % of the time soO wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 % ~ 43.57 % of the time INnoVation loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.29 % ~ 56.43 % of the time INnoVation wins their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % ~ 56.43 % of the time soO loses their next match in GSL S3 Code S ro2 This would change HuK's Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 0 % But now it's fixed to favor the current player like Huk winning and Huk losing, so it removes the events for Hyun winning and Hyun losing against Huk, and then after that it favors the winning event so it has soO winning and Innovation winning but it ditches the events for them losing. This works just by finding events that have the same exact number of occurances in the initial block (the first 500,000 samples) and also result in the exact same Blizzcon chances for that player, and then it picks the one with the highest score. This should make it much easier to read especially with the grouped events. I hope you like the change! Will be writing a bit to preview Dreamhack Stockholm Day 2 soon. Can i just say your awesome. Really great how much time you put into this and how nice and easy it is to understand the standings. | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
Player A wins their next match (against Player B), and then also showing Player B loses their next match (against Player A). OMG, that was so annoying. Thanks for fixing that >.> There was also "HuK wins WCS America" and "HuK wins their next match in RO8, Heart finishes 4th place, Bomber finishes second place" type stuff. Glad to see this is fixed. | ||
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