EPTLadder Deflation and MMR Decay - Page 26
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klup
France612 Posts
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Mercy13
United States718 Posts
On January 20 2014 15:19 Excalibur_Z wrote: I think there's probably a bug in storing the status of some player profiles during a season roll. The way it's supposed to work is that if you played in the previous season, you just play one placement match and your previous season's MMR carries over, but if you didn't play in the previous season, you play five placement matches and start fresh. I've seen almost every variation happen to different people: 1. The player's profile correctly carries over his MMR from last season (most common). 2. The player's MMR is correctly reset due to not playing last season (second most common). 3. The player's MMR incorrectly carries over his MMR from the last recorded value, despite never playing in the previous season (uncommon, I think this may have happened to you). 4. The player's MMR incorrectly carries over from the last recorded value AND the decay timer resets with each season missed (rare, and this has caused high-MMR players to come back after a nine-month hiatus and find themselves in Bronze). Thanks for the response. Hopefully 2.1 will fix some of these issues. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12129 Posts
On January 20 2014 19:55 tombigbimbom wrote: I'm sorry, but you're _literally_ wrong about the first part, so I suggest you http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/12055065get yourself better informed first instead of jumping to wrong conclusions. What you say doesn't prove anything to me, cause the ladder has always been so tight that as, e.g. a ~1500 master, I can stomp people at ~1400. And if you think that the release of HotS and the seasons that came after it didn't have an effect on the system, then you're also missing out on seeing the correct/full picture. As for the rest, I guess we'll just have to assume that I'm in a different ladder system than you are or the rules are different for me... or you're exaggerating like most people here, which is why I'm not even going to comment on your numbers and statistics. Based on your post I also think you're just in a habit of making excuses and you're quite likely blowing this thing out of proportion as part of that. I just very clearly told you how many full decays it took to drop from top masters to mid diamond, but you refuse to listen to facts and would rather believe that the decay is somehow working against you to the point where you can't win. Again, it's four/five full decays (over 4 seasons) and I wonder how many people have actually done that considering Masters used to be 2-4% of the population. We'd be talking about what, 0.25% of players, if even that many? For such a tiny fraction, they've really caused a lot of distress to make ladder so "terrible", that most people between Bronze and Platinum are "playing mostly Masters". You're barking up the wrong tree and convinced yourself that the sole reason for your losses is the ladder system treating you unfairly. Even here, a lot of people believe in some kind of a conspiracy or make up "evidence" to prove that this is somehow true. Maybe it's just your playstyle that's gotten affected? Maybe you've changed your play because of this belief or you're so behind in meta that you can't figure our how to beat your opponents? Problem is, RTS games are really niche and not for everyone and there are reasons for that. To play a competitive game like SC2 you actually need to be objective, be critical of yourself and like to take on new challenges to improve your play. If all you're going to do is come up with excuses and jumping on the flavor of the week bandwagon of "this is why I can't win" like many others, then maybe it's not for you. Playing competitive RTS is hard and it's been fading away as a genre for a few years now for a reason. For the love of me stop with these BS. I'm critical to myself. I KNOW I WILL LOSE. Surprisingly I know I will lose 50 % of my games and it's OK to me. But I want to have a chance to win those games! When I am in diamond and I have losing streak and I receive a former grand master for the next game??? WTF?(for the record, I've never been to master league) How am I supposed to win against a player, who has been master for his whole sc2 life and the last season he/she got even into GM? I've never been to master league but yeah, after a losing streak here, have another master player so you can get better(which can't happen - the same way Malta football teams won't get better if you pair them with elite ChL teams). These players could beat me with pure ling macro game(and some of them did). You know the great feeling after you lose to ling only, because opponents is so much better? Yaaay. I think it's the same feeling as the T players get when they meet P. All I want is to enjoy my games = I have a chance to win every game a play. And that's not happening. I don't care why - if it's decay, change to MM/MMR or just because Blizzard hates me and I received "roflstomp this kid" tag. | ||
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Nimix
France1809 Posts
Or maybe they wanted to mock the "masters NA = gold EU" trolls? :D | ||
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lessQQmorePEWPEW
Jamaica921 Posts
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tili
United States1332 Posts
On January 21 2014 00:35 lessQQmorePEWPEW wrote: Happy to say I've uninstalled sc2. Memories will always be there though, when shit was good. Should be fixed tomorrow, but okay. | ||
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HelpMeGetBetter
United States764 Posts
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korona
1098 Posts
On January 20 2014 19:55 tombigbimbom wrote: I'm sorry, but you're _literally_ wrong about the first part, so I suggest you http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/12055065get yourself better informed first instead of jumping to wrong conclusions. What you say doesn't prove anything to me, cause the ladder has always been so tight that as, e.g. a ~1500 master, I can stomp people at ~1400. And if you think that the release of HotS and the seasons that came after it didn't have an effect on the system, then you're also missing out on seeing the correct/full picture. As for the rest, I guess we'll just have to assume that I'm in a different ladder system than you are or the rules are different for me... or you're exaggerating like most people here, which is why I'm not even going to comment on your numbers and statistics. Based on your post I also think you're just in a habit of making excuses and you're quite likely blowing this thing out of proportion as part of that. I just very clearly told you how many full decays it took to drop from top masters to mid diamond, but you refuse to listen to facts and would rather believe that the decay is somehow working against you to the point where you can't win. Again, it's four/five full decays (over 4 seasons) and I wonder how many people have actually done that considering Masters used to be 2-4% of the population. We'd be talking about what, 0.25% of players, if even that many? For such a tiny fraction, they've really caused a lot of distress to make ladder so "terrible", that most people between Bronze and Platinum are "playing mostly Masters". You're barking up the wrong tree and convinced yourself that the sole reason for your losses is the ladder system treating you unfairly. Even here, a lot of people believe in some kind of a conspiracy or make up "evidence" to prove that this is somehow true. Maybe it's just your playstyle that's gotten affected? Maybe you've changed your play because of this belief or you're so behind in meta that you can't figure our how to beat your opponents? Problem is, RTS games are really niche and not for everyone and there are reasons for that. To play a competitive game like SC2 you actually need to be objective, be critical of yourself and like to take on new challenges to improve your play. If all you're going to do is come up with excuses and jumping on the flavor of the week bandwagon of "this is why I can't win" like many others, then maybe it's not for you. Playing competitive RTS is hard and it's been fading away as a genre for a few years now for a reason. Sorry to tell you Tom, but you are wrong regarding many things. MMR decay is a real thing with considerable effects. It affects players both directly and indirectly - if you are inactive for more than 2 weeks, you will be directly affected. You will also be affected by your opponents indirectly as some of them have been decayed + pretty much all have faced decayed players. The league distribution is logically mainly messed up due to the decay (league offsets and thresholds have not been changed since June. Blizzard is expected to change them in patch 2.1). There is more than plenty of data regarding MMR decay from several seasons that supports what is said in the original post. Plenty of research has been put into this by me and by others. And some have access to more data than the others. For example I have access to all MMR tool data (several hundreds of thousands matches). The max decay is worth roughly of 20 loss and not 'few loss' like Blizzard says in their situation report. Blizzard has used so called 'marketing / PR language' in their articles for years. They often downplay 'negative sounding things' by finding viewpoints from which the negative things sound more positive. For example decay per day could indeed be described as 'worth few loss'. Of course this misleads most people who blindly believe what Blizzard has written & think it applies to the general case. Many GMs / high master MMR range players (including yourself) do not understand MMR decay based on their own experiences. They have had so high MMR that it takes several max decays for them to be demoted diamond. Master league (+ gm included) is many times larger than other leagues regarding its MMR range. For example on EU it takes ~2.3 times max decay for a player to drop from bottom border of GM to bottom border of master. From very top of GM to low border of master it would potentially take more than 5 times max decay. Also the situation in high master / gm range is much different than in lower leagues. The player population there is very scarce and active. Population in lower leagues is many times larger + considerable amount of the players go inactive & get decayed each season. There has been considerable skill differences between different MMR ranges - Like you said typical GM beats typical high master with ease, typical high master beats typical mid master with ease, typical mid master beats low master, typical low master beats diamond, typical diamond beats... Over a period of several seasons lower leagues have become melting pots where wildly different skilled people share similar MMRs. Also remember that people can 'chain decay' several max decays per season. This happens when you play games then go inactive for more than 4 weeks and then come back & play at least one game or more (and do not reach your old MMR level). Then go inactive for more than 4 weeks again. And when you come back, you have experienced second max decay. | ||
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zerotol
Belgium508 Posts
Does the 'promotion' come faster if you were severely affected by MMR decay? Or is it always the same speed? | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
On January 23 2014 04:19 zerotol wrote: I think MMR decay is a good way to adjust for your skill decreasing but what if you start playing again and get back fast to your initial skilllevel? Does the 'promotion' come faster if you were severely affected by MMR decay? Or is it always the same speed? MMR changes in rapid pace only if you have just started from blank MMR (5 placement matches). Around the 25th match (or little more) the change speed normalizes. Most people who face decay have already played more games. Thus their MMR changes in 'normal' speed after the decay. Maximum decay is roughly comparable to 20 losses. Thus you need to win roughly 20 games more than you lose to overcome it. Of course this was the case before patch 2.1. Based on Blizzard's articles they only adjusted league offsets/thresholds. But time will tell if there were other changes. | ||
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zerotol
Belgium508 Posts
On January 23 2014 04:38 korona wrote: MMR changes in rapid pace only if you have just started from blank MMR (5 placement matches). Around the 25th match (or little more) the change speed normalizes. Most people who face decay have already played more games. Thus their MMR changes in 'normal' speed after the decay. Maximum decay is roughly comparable to 20 losses. Thus you need to win roughly 20 games more than you lose to overcome it. Of course this was the case before patch 2.1. Based on Blizzard's articles they only adjusted league offsets/thresholds. But time will tell if there were other changes. Isn't that the real issue with the decay? It should in some way hold account with your old MMR so you get promoted to the right league again much faster? That would take away a lot of the annoyment people have with playing 'below their normal league', and why it takes ages to get it fixed again. | ||
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Ignorant prodigy
United States385 Posts
platinum is littered with perennial masters who are facing each other at 50% win ratios ---in platinum.. preventing promotions.... it's not as simple as promoting people faster based on win percentages.. because then you're still running in place because each person is still roughly 50%. You would have to curve the points awarded or taken based on previous ladder finishes of each player... good luck with that. | ||
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Firkraag8
Sweden1006 Posts
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Rowrin
United States280 Posts
They've completely wrecked their data. I have no idea how they can expect to keep data that is now basically useless, alter some means by which it is collected and expect it to fix itself... | ||
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JacobShock
Denmark2485 Posts
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almart
United States114 Posts
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almart
United States114 Posts
On January 23 2014 08:02 Firkraag8 wrote: Anyone who's gotten promoted after their first games today as was advertised? None of the players in my clan including me got promoted after 5+ games. We're all old diamond players being in gold/platinum this season. Something tells me that there's something wrong with their adjustment. I'm an old masters player having the same problem it's acting like I'm completely new to the game regardless of my outrageous winstreak. This whole system has discouraged me from playing because I am either facing diamond/masters players or players way below my skill level. | ||
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korona
1098 Posts
Kaivax ( http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/11354455348?page=16#303 ): Just wanted to check in here and confirm for you: we've been closely monitoring the ladders today, and will continue to tomorrow. At this time, we haven't made any ladder adjustments post-patch in any region. Our primary focus, of course, has been deploying the patch smoothly. Still, we've got Southeast Asia / Australia / New Zealand tomorrow, and I assure you any ladder concerns you've given us feedback on have been received, and considered, and figure into the analysis we're doing. Please keep that constructive feedback coming. <3 Nevertheless I will likely go through the MMR tool data during the weekend if it gives more info about the situation & potential changes (hopefully amount of collected data has multiplied several times by then)... | ||
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aZealot
New Zealand5447 Posts
As for me, I continue to ladder. Sometimes I get smashed but I've also had a couple of good games against former Diamond players. When it gets too much, I just go unranked. It does suck, though, I agree. But, I work in an area where systems issues can run deep and take a while to fix. So, if the problem is a fundamental one, and perhaps even more likely they are still not sure where the source of the fault lies, then it is going to be a while before we get an understandable ladder system back. | ||
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Spirit09
United Kingdom38 Posts
Everyone being in the wrong league is only a symptom. The far worse symptom is poor matchmaking, and the cause is deflation. They haven't actually done anything about these last two. Treating symptoms may give a temporary relief, but ultimately it makes the situation worse (unless of course you are giving only palliative care, and I really hope Blizzard doesn't see SC2 as something that just needs to be made comfortable on its death bed!). ----------x---------- Anyway, it seems to me that as things stand, in say Gold league and below, when you are paired with an opponent that opponent can have a *real* skill level anything from Masters to Bronze. This is probably the primary factor determining the outcome of games, not the actions you take in the match! If it were not the primary outcome then that would mean that a player in a lower league could play a player in a higher league and actually expect to beat them a significant percent of the time. I think its generally accepted that when matchmaking is working correctly a player that is one league higher should be winning virtually every game (obviously when matchmaking is working correctly they wouldn't face each other, but you see my point). I feel a back of the envelope calculation coming on: Korona has shown you need 20 wins to counter one period of deflation. Lets say you suffer just one deflation period so you need 20 wins to get back to your *true* skill. In lower leagues (Bronze-Gold "zone of hell") there are many people who have deflated and everyone who hasn't is playing against them and therefore also has their MMR affected. Ergo virtually everyone has incorrect MMR. Lets say 90% of the time you face someone with incorrect MMR, 10% you do not. Now, you are 20 wins away from your *true* skill, so in those 10% of games you have a 100% win rate. In the other 90% the outcome is effectively determined before you as your opponents have incorrect MMR, so you have a 50% win rate. This gives a total win rate of 55%. I think it is quite common to see people with this kind of win rate. That 5% of games is where you get your 20 wins in order to get out of the "zone of hell" and return your MMR to your *true* skill. That would mean you need 400 games in total to counteract the deflation period you experienced. This value of 400 is presumably what Blizzard refers to as "a few games". To me that seems insane, or have I made some glaring error? | ||
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