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Ladder Deflation and MMR Decay - Page 28

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12248 Posts
January 25 2014 04:07 GMT
#541
On January 25 2014 12:07 GunLove wrote:
Yes I can confirm what the above poster said.
I too got promoted (around midnight this night). When I checked my division, about 60 out of a 100 players (including me) were at the exact same points total: 415. Even though I had around 500 points in my previous division one league lower. It seems like some predetermined points total.
Also in the general chat at that time there were quite a few others that got promoted, most of them had quite good win/loss ratios (like I do too). A friend of mine in the same league did not get promoted. He has a winrate closer to 50/50.

The only conclusion I can draw from this is that Blizzard implemented some new adjustments and it resulted in some 'mass' promotions for those who were doing relatively well in their leagues.


Anytime you change leagues your points are reset to 73 + spent bonus pool. If a lot of you had the same amount of points, my guess is you had no bonus pool left and the bonus pool total was 343 for your league =)
Moderator
aZealot
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
New Zealand5447 Posts
January 25 2014 06:23 GMT
#542
On January 25 2014 12:07 GunLove wrote:
Yes I can confirm what the above poster said.
I too got promoted (around midnight this night). When I checked my division, about 60 out of a 100 players (including me) were at the exact same points total: 415. Even though I had around 500 points in my previous division one league lower. It seems like some predetermined points total.
Also in the general chat at that time there were quite a few others that got promoted, most of them had quite good win/loss ratios (like I do too). A friend of mine in the same league did not get promoted. He has a winrate closer to 50/50.

The only conclusion I can draw from this is that Blizzard implemented some new adjustments and it resulted in some 'mass' promotions for those who were doing relatively well in their leagues.


Yep, got promoted here too! I know it does not mean much, but it does mean a little. Going up always feels good (even if it is not the main reason I play). I seem to be playing against opponents of comparable skill too (i.e. it's not a curb stomp either way). From what I hear Blizzard has not fixed ladder yet, but the ladder related patch adjustments must be having some effect. I doubt you need to be doing well in your league, either (I was 10 - 15 before a win and promotion).
KT best KT ~ 2014
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
January 25 2014 06:53 GMT
#543
On January 25 2014 12:34 coL.hendralisk wrote:
Right after the ladder change players in gm are getting a ton of points per win (20-26 without bonus pool even in cases where it should be <10 for ex. see sage/kangho/minigun, esp minigun cuz he's beating low mmr players while being rank 1 by a good margin and getting pts as if the opponent was favored) and no points for loss (0 to 2)

So basically giving a fake bonus pool or something? Not sure if intentional
That sounds very unintentional. Those #1s that play many games should trend towards the lower reaches of points gained.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
corydoras
Profile Joined November 2013
161 Posts
January 25 2014 18:40 GMT
#544
Random thought - has anyone been promoted in such a way that two leagues at once were skipped (e.g. bronze to gold)? That would say quite a lot about new offets, if offsets were the only thing that was changed.
Adun toridas!
Firkraag8
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1006 Posts
January 25 2014 18:45 GMT
#545
Most of my friends have had 1 promotion per game back to where they belong. None of which got 2 at once.
Too weird to live, too rare to die.
corydoras
Profile Joined November 2013
161 Posts
January 25 2014 18:47 GMT
#546
What do you mean "1 promotion per game"? Did they get multiple promotion after back to back wins?
Adun toridas!
Extenz
Profile Joined October 2011
Italy822 Posts
January 25 2014 18:50 GMT
#547
On January 26 2014 03:40 corydoras wrote:
Random thought - has anyone been promoted in such a way that two leagues at once were skipped (e.g. bronze to gold)? That would say quite a lot about new offets, if offsets were the only thing that was changed.

It's possible, it happened when I was playing an old account of mine which got demoted to gold and after playing only diamonds and winning I got promoted to plat and to dia all at once.
Firkraag8
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1006 Posts
January 25 2014 18:54 GMT
#548
On January 26 2014 03:47 corydoras wrote:
What do you mean "1 promotion per game"? Did they get multiple promotion after back to back wins?

Yes one of my clan mates who was gold got platinum then diamond in two back to back wins.
Too weird to live, too rare to die.
corydoras
Profile Joined November 2013
161 Posts
January 25 2014 19:03 GMT
#549
Whoa. I'm not any kind of MMR geek but that would indicate massive changes in the offsets or some artificial adjustments in MMR values of particular players. If the former is true, I might get promoted if I eventually manage to win something in 1v1
Adun toridas!
Eregos
Profile Joined July 2013
United States34 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-25 20:57:27
January 25 2014 20:55 GMT
#550
I propose the following solutions

1. Reduce the global rate of MMR decay by 75% for everything and everyone.

2. Keep the current rate of MMR decay, but only for players with Master and Grandmaster MMR, and this rate of decay stops in the middle of diamond league.

I've reached the conclusion that MMR decay is a gangrenous disease slowly eating away at the effectiveness and meaningfulness of the ranking system, and these changes could stop it while still keeping the top leagues as something to *earn* and simultaneously fixing diamond league underpopulation. (although I realize diamond league active player distribution is close to correct, this would fix the top line number people complain about). Decayed players would have to prove themselves for promotion but would get decent matches from the start and it wouldn't take as long. The longer the current decay system stays in place, the more it undermines SC2. Its gets worse the longer blizzard thinks they can cure the disease by treating the symptoms.
Eskiya23
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands105 Posts
January 25 2014 21:15 GMT
#551
Can someone explain me why I have played vs masters in gold/plat? I have won these matches and am just now promoted to Diamond, why is the ladder so skewed ?
Wisdom. Judgement. Execution. Stream: twitch.tv/eskiyasc2 Twitter: @EskiyaSC
drop271
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
New Zealand286 Posts
January 25 2014 22:04 GMT
#552
Just adding to the consensus of the posts recently - have been promoted twice to get back up to diamond from gold in the space of about 30 games
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-25 23:46:20
January 25 2014 22:40 GMT
#553
On January 26 2014 04:03 corydoras wrote:
Whoa. I'm not any kind of MMR geek but that would indicate massive changes in the offsets or some artificial adjustments in MMR values of particular players. If the former is true, I might get promoted if I eventually manage to win something in 1v1

Based on the MMR tool graphs it is known that there has been league offset / threshold changes (by assuming the math is still the same). Based nios.kr it is known that there has been considerable increase of promotions to other leagues except to master. There is pretty much no increase regarding master promotions. Based on various forums it is known that some have been double promoted in back to back games, but some have not been promoted at all. Also it is worth to remember is that promotions happen only after won matches.

If it is only based offset / threshold changes, then they would likely have increased the diamond MMR range & decreased all lower league ranges & relative sum of the changes has been 0 (as no master league promotion increase). But then again lower league MMR ranges were already quite small. To lead to double promotions it would mean that some ranges would have decreased quite considerably. And there are also reports that some have not been promoted. (e.g. there are reports of some golds to be promoted to diamond with 2 back to back wins (thought it is unknown if they had recently started from 'blank MMR' and had not played 25 matches yet), but some golds have not been promoted at all (of course their MMR might have been lower league range). Artificial MMR boost based on historical data might be possible, but it would have been capped to diamond range.

Time will tell. It takes lots of time (2 to 3 weeks) to collect enough data to be able to calculate new lower league offsets for MMR tool. But there should be calculation results regarding diamond-master offset in few days (if I have time). Based on those values it might be possible to roughly estimate lower league offset based on user graphs (but these would be manual tryouts that would take potentially much effort).


--
Here are some numbers from nios.kr how population has shifted in past 24 hours (2014-01-25 around midnight CET -> 2014-01-26 around midnight CET):

Accounts placed in leagues ('situation ~24 h ago --> now'):

US: master 1300 -> 1368, diamond 2885 -> 4122, platinum 4669 -> 5289, gold 13159 -> 14246, silver 22913 -> 23381, bronze 33939 -> 32385, total players placed 79065 -> 80989

EU: master 2246 -> 2276, diamond 3291 -> 4797, platinum 4951 -> 5749, gold 13047 -> 14641, silver 22733 -> 23647, bronze 38354 -> 35467, total players placed 84821 -> 86777

Increase in numbers:

US: master +68, diamond +1237, platinum +620, gold +1087, silver +468, bronze -1554, total players placed +1924

EU: master +30, diamond +1506, platinum +798, gold +1594, silver +914, bronze -2887, total players placed +1956
Mintograde
Profile Joined August 2010
United States25 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-25 23:29:26
January 25 2014 23:27 GMT
#554
Some more numbers (10 minute intervals since the night of the patch on NA):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqVih3bAOZUQdGpuT3pmNUNmdm5YS0lfdGpJTnNkX1E&usp=sharing#gid=0

Graphs are on the 2nd tab. Data tab auto-updates, graphs do not.
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-25 23:38:51
January 25 2014 23:33 GMT
#555
On January 26 2014 08:27 Mintograde wrote:
Some more numbers (10 minute intervals since the night of the patch on NA):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqVih3bAOZUQdGpuT3pmNUNmdm5YS0lfdGpJTnNkX1E&usp=sharing#gid=0

Graphs are on the 2nd tab. Data tab auto-updates, graphs do not.

Automatic updates regarding that data are nice. It shows when things started happening, thought based on MMR tool data the changes likely happened little earlier (few hours max) before than the numbers started changing in your chart. Shame that you don't have the raw numbers. Percentages themselves are often uninteresting.
Mintograde
Profile Joined August 2010
United States25 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-25 23:42:07
January 25 2014 23:40 GMT
#556
On January 26 2014 08:33 korona wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2014 08:27 Mintograde wrote:
Some more numbers (10 minute intervals since the night of the patch on NA):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqVih3bAOZUQdGpuT3pmNUNmdm5YS0lfdGpJTnNkX1E&usp=sharing#gid=0

Graphs are on the 2nd tab. Data tab auto-updates, graphs do not.

Shame that you don't have the raw numbers. Percentages themselves are often uninteresting.

Very true, I threw the script together really fast the night of the patch to get it running ASAP, so I didn't capture as much data as I could have. It's grabbing the total players per region, though, so approximate per-league player counts can still be calculated.
Firkraag8
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden1006 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-26 01:43:05
January 26 2014 01:28 GMT
#557
Korona my clan mate who go the back-to-back promotions have been playing many games each season. It was definitely far from his MMR reset which last occured during HotS release.
http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/313239/1/Johii/
Too weird to live, too rare to die.
goofyballer
Profile Joined January 2013
United States136 Posts
January 26 2014 02:36 GMT
#558
So, I've been mostly platinum for a long time now. Was diamond for the second season of HotS, when like half of the ladder was in diamond for some reason, but definitely didn't deserve to be there. For the last couple seasons, and this one, I've been in gold. I'm not that good, platinum feels about right to me but the ladder was harder the last couple seasons.

Haven't played ranked in a couple weeks but decided to today, win my first game vs a gold, get promoted to platinum. Sweet!

My very first game in platinum, I'm...playing a diamond?? Weird. I lose.

Next game, vs a platinum, I win. And I'm promoted to diamond.

wtf?????????
Qwerty85
Profile Joined June 2012
Croatia5536 Posts
January 26 2014 06:18 GMT
#559
On January 26 2014 08:27 Mintograde wrote:
Some more numbers (10 minute intervals since the night of the patch on NA):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqVih3bAOZUQdGpuT3pmNUNmdm5YS0lfdGpJTnNkX1E&usp=sharing#gid=0

Graphs are on the 2nd tab. Data tab auto-updates, graphs do not.


To me this looks like gold was influenced the most. A lot of bronze players should still go to silver and silvers to gold.
Meepman
Profile Joined December 2009
Canada610 Posts
January 26 2014 07:09 GMT
#560
Holy shit being promoted feels SO good :D
Im glad they implemented such major changes
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