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Ladder Deflation and MMR Decay - Page 29

Forum Index > SC2 General
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UberNuB
Profile Joined December 2010
United States365 Posts
January 26 2014 08:47 GMT
#561
I also went from Gold to Diamond after winning two games (promotion after each win).

I've pretty much always been in Diamond and everybody I played in Gold was Diamond/Masters before, so it seems like we all sank and rose back up together.

I stopped playing after I won the second game, but I doubt it's going to jump me to Masters.
the absence of evidence, is not the evidence of absence.
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-26 14:24:10
January 26 2014 14:02 GMT
#562
Ran some offset calculations on match data collected by MMR tool after Blizzard made league offset changes ~40 hours ago. You can read results from: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20676153

On January 25 2014 12:34 coL.hendralisk wrote:
Right after the ladder change players in gm are getting a ton of points per win (20-26 without bonus pool even in cases where it should be <10 for ex. see sage/kangho/minigun, esp minigun cuz he's beating low mmr players while being rank 1 by a good margin and getting pts as if the opponent was favored) and no points for loss (0 to 2)

So basically giving a fake bonus pool or something? Not sure if intentional

I did look at their profiles short time after you posted this. There seemed to be no 'fake bonus points', but they were getting very high points from matches (19 to 24 and losing very little). I could not check their in-game match histories as NA server was having problems back then.

But now as I have some offset calculations I have a likely reason. The new master-grandmaster offset is likely close to 73 (old was 400 to 420). The system was likely pushing those players to get ~350 more adjusted points.

As a side note it would not hurt to get more grandmaster users for the MMR tool, even if you yourself would not care about the results. For example there are only few low grandmaster users for NA. It would not hurt to get data from higher grandmasters (would help to understand how wide the gm MMR range is, get confirmation that values are compatible also with higher accounts, get basic match data (no need to guess how many points & bonus points were gained) + other things. Results for individual players or account names will not be published. Also please note that if you start using the tool before new offsets have been published, the calculation results will be incorrect, but will be fixed when new offsets are ready).
Spirit09
Profile Joined May 2011
United Kingdom38 Posts
January 29 2014 14:01 GMT
#563
This league distribution change doesn't seem like it will make much difference. People affected by MMR decay typically talk about dropping one or more leagues, often two leagues, but the change they made seems to mean only a tiny fraction at the top of, say Gold, will end up promoted to Platinum.

[image loading]

Also, Bronze and Silver combined account for around 70% of the player base (both before and after 2.1)??? That can't be working as intended. If you are a player in the 70th percentile you damn sure expect to be in Platinum at least! I mean, you can have a 1st from Cambridge with 70%, wtf Blizzard?
you see a probe coming in your base. you don't see it go out. guess what happened??????
DinoMight
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States3725 Posts
January 29 2014 14:07 GMT
#564
Guys give it some time.. you DO need to play a decent number of ladder games but it will fix itself.

I was in Diamond most of the time and Masters 1 season or so. Back in Diamond shortly after 2.1 was released. All the other guys in my clan who are playing regularly are getting promoted too.

So I think it won't happen immediately but if you play a few games every day you'll be back to your old league quickly.
"Wtf I come back and find myself in camp DinoMight all of a sudden, feels weird man." -Wombat_NI
DinoMight
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States3725 Posts
January 29 2014 14:43 GMT
#565
Also where did you get these stats? SC2 ranks still shows me as platinum despite having been promoted back to diamond so they could be wrong.
"Wtf I come back and find myself in camp DinoMight all of a sudden, feels weird man." -Wombat_NI
tili
Profile Joined July 2012
United States1332 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-29 14:54:53
January 29 2014 14:54 GMT
#566
Anecdotally, the games I've been playing are much more even, and I did not lose or win a ton of games to change my mmr.
Nimix
Profile Joined October 2011
France1809 Posts
January 29 2014 15:01 GMT
#567
2 games got me back from gold (which i stayed in a long time playing mostly ex diamond/masters) back to diamond on my offrace account. So yeah seems like it's back to what it was before decay, at last.
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-29 15:27:35
January 29 2014 15:15 GMT
#568
On January 29 2014 23:54 tili wrote:
Anecdotally, the games I've been playing are much more even, and I did not lose or win a ton of games to change my mmr.

The first win will promote you if you are going to be promoted due to the changes Blizzard made last Friday,
On January 29 2014 23:43 DinoMight wrote:
Also where did you get these stats? SC2 ranks still shows me as platinum despite having been promoted back to diamond so they could be wrong.

Sc2ranks has not been updated for few weeks. Use nios.kr instead.

But remember the numbers show all the players who have played their placement matches during this season. Only a fraction of those players play each week. It will take a long time until major percentage of the placed players have played that one win that will potentially change their league. Also remember that some players may be double promoted (requires two wins).


Also note that the changes Blizzard made last Friday likely did not address the problem that different skilled players are sharing similar MMRs. Time will tell did they make changes to MMR decay (also note that after the changes the size of MMR ranges of different leagues potentially differ from each others considerably. Before the changes size of MMR ranges of different leagues were quite close. After the changes one likely cannot generalize that max decay would be "little over one league range in MMR").
The_Darkness
Profile Joined December 2011
United States910 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-29 16:08:57
January 29 2014 16:07 GMT
#569
On January 26 2014 07:04 drop271 wrote:
Just adding to the consensus of the posts recently - have been promoted twice to get back up to diamond from gold in the space of about 30 games


Last season, I played around 20 games and was 18-2 on my NA account (whcih I hadn't played on for a while) and was still placed into gold and then as has happened with others, in the past two days, I played about 10 games (against people who I would say were not diamond caliber (given today's ladder standards)) and had two promotions and now am high diamond.
To be is to be the value of a bound variable.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12235 Posts
January 29 2014 16:15 GMT
#570
What do you want to bet that they changed the activity metric to filter out not only players above X bonus pool, but also players who experienced decay? That could potentially cause most of the lower leagues to contract. It does seem like the most elegant solution to me though.
Moderator
Ben...
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3485 Posts
January 29 2014 17:02 GMT
#571
On January 30 2014 01:07 The_Darkness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2014 07:04 drop271 wrote:
Just adding to the consensus of the posts recently - have been promoted twice to get back up to diamond from gold in the space of about 30 games


Last season, I played around 20 games and was 18-2 on my NA account (whcih I hadn't played on for a while) and was still placed into gold and then as has happened with others, in the past two days, I played about 10 games (against people who I would say were not diamond caliber (given today's ladder standards)) and had two promotions and now am high diamond.

Yup, I'm in the middle of doing this. The people I have been getting promoted off of are not nearly as good as the people I was playing before 2.1. I've won almost every game, only losing to Random players cheesing (3 in a row. Yay!). I'm guessing things will shift a lot in the coming days.
"Cliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide" -Tastosis
tili
Profile Joined July 2012
United States1332 Posts
January 30 2014 06:36 GMT
#572
On January 30 2014 02:02 Ben... wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2014 01:07 The_Darkness wrote:
On January 26 2014 07:04 drop271 wrote:
Just adding to the consensus of the posts recently - have been promoted twice to get back up to diamond from gold in the space of about 30 games


Last season, I played around 20 games and was 18-2 on my NA account (whcih I hadn't played on for a while) and was still placed into gold and then as has happened with others, in the past two days, I played about 10 games (against people who I would say were not diamond caliber (given today's ladder standards)) and had two promotions and now am high diamond.

Yup, I'm in the middle of doing this. The people I have been getting promoted off of are not nearly as good as the people I was playing before 2.1. I've won almost every game, only losing to Random players cheesing (3 in a row. Yay!). I'm guessing things will shift a lot in the coming days.


Agreed. It seems the current diamond is only a little above what it was in WoL, but no longer always multiple masters histories.

Honestly , it feels correct again.
Whitley
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States238 Posts
January 30 2014 07:17 GMT
#573
Looks like things are "leveling" out a little.. Been playing people around my level and its been a lot more fun. Before it was either get straight stomped or just roll over someone.. couldn't tell you the last time i had a fun ladder experience with 1v1. went 10-6
Ben...
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3485 Posts
January 30 2014 14:07 GMT
#574
On January 30 2014 16:17 Whitley wrote:
Looks like things are "leveling" out a little.. Been playing people around my level and its been a lot more fun. Before it was either get straight stomped or just roll over someone.. couldn't tell you the last time i had a fun ladder experience with 1v1. went 10-6

Yes, that sounds like my experiences. Every game was actually close for once, not either me walking over my opponent or getting completely destroyed like how it was before 2.1. I've had a lot more fun.
"Cliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide" -Tastosis
Eregos
Profile Joined July 2013
United States34 Posts
January 31 2014 09:15 GMT
#575
On January 30 2014 01:15 Excalibur_Z wrote:
What do you want to bet that they changed the activity metric to filter out not only players above X bonus pool, but also players who experienced decay? That could potentially cause most of the lower leagues to contract. It does seem like the most elegant solution to me though.


So you're saying that the distribution of decayed players skews towards the higher leagues? My understanding of the logic goes like this: Decayed players, who tend to be in the upper leagues, are now filtered out of the activity metric. As a result, the upper leagues appear to the league system to be underpopulated. In order to maintain the target distribution, the system promotes more people from the lower leagues to the upper leagues.
Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
January 31 2014 09:57 GMT
#576
On January 30 2014 01:15 Excalibur_Z wrote:
What do you want to bet that they changed the activity metric to filter out not only players above X bonus pool, but also players who experienced decay? That could potentially cause most of the lower leagues to contract. It does seem like the most elegant solution to me though.


I would think this would cause lower leagues to expand. Let's assume the activity metric changed the way you suggest. Before, players who decayed would diffuse into lower leagues as they remained inactive, and a too-loose activity metric would keep them in the pool. This would mean more players at lower MMRs, so they'd move the league boundaries down to achieve target percentages. You'd have experienced fewer, not more, players in low leagues before the change, and filtering out those decayed players would make lower leagues get larger.

I'd throw out the idea that they WERE filtering out decayed players before with their activity metric. This would mean they thought they'd have, say, 20% of "active" players in Bronze, but tons of decayed players would wind up there who'd been filtered out. The fix would be to loosen up the activity metric so it captures a chunk of the returning, decayed players that approximates however many "returning" players are playing at any given time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States44106 Posts
February 05 2014 17:27 GMT
#577
I guess Blizzard's modifications to the decay are actually working... I just went from Bronze 1 to Silver 1 to Gold 1 lol...
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
February 05 2014 18:30 GMT
#578
On February 06 2014 02:27 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
I guess Blizzard's modifications to the decay are actually working... I just went from Bronze 1 to Silver 1 to Gold 1 lol...

Blizzard made changes to league offsets / thresholds on Friday 2014-01-24. It is still not known if there were changes to the decay (they have not mentioned any changes). For that observing people who have played after the offset changes and then went inactive for 4 weeks or more is needed. Hopefully there will be at least few such MMR tool users in the end of the month that have good MMR calculations before and after the inactivity period.

At first the offset/threshold changes will move people upwards regarding their leagues. But after this if there were no changes to the decay, the population will start moving towards lower leagues again as their MMR degrades (demotions would be expected for many at start of each new season).
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States44106 Posts
February 05 2014 19:28 GMT
#579
On February 06 2014 03:30 korona wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 06 2014 02:27 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
I guess Blizzard's modifications to the decay are actually working... I just went from Bronze 1 to Silver 1 to Gold 1 lol...

Blizzard made changes to league offsets / thresholds on Friday 2014-01-24. It is still not known if there were changes to the decay (they have not mentioned any changes). For that observing people who have played after the offset changes and then went inactive for 4 weeks or more is needed. Hopefully there will be at least few such MMR tool users in the end of the month that have good MMR calculations before and after the inactivity period.

At first the offset/threshold changes will move people upwards regarding their leagues. But after this if there were no changes to the decay, the population will start moving towards lower leagues again as their MMR degrades (demotions would be expected for many at start of each new season).


Yeah, I haven't played since mid-January
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Ctone23
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States1839 Posts
February 05 2014 19:33 GMT
#580
I'm sure I have my fair share of complaining when it came to the league offsets and what-not. I got promoted last night, and I have to say, that is what it's all about.

Fucking love this game.
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