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Ladder Deflation and MMR Decay - Page 25

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Ben...
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3485 Posts
January 15 2014 15:11 GMT
#481
On January 15 2014 23:34 insectoceanx wrote:
I'm usually active for part of a season then miss some weeks, 5 weeks between this season and last season. It seems with this kind of break i end up going about 20-2 until i start getting evenly matched again.
Yup. That happened to me. Looking at my division, it also happened to some other people. One dude is currently 24-3, and I checked his match history and he had 3 weeks where he didn't play followed by about 20 wins in a row. I would call that MMR drop more than the equivalent of "a few" games.

I am now in gold league. Was diamond for the majority of WoL. Was Master for the last season of WoL and for HOTS until I had to take a break because I injured my shoulder. Came back, was placed in Diamond, got busy with school, was then placed in gold where I got promoted after two games, got busy with finals, placed for this season and went from high platinum only being matched against diamonds to gold only being matched against a ridiculous range of skill levels. I lost to a person in silver who was obviously better than me, and then proceeded to beat two diamond players in a row, both of whom were much worse than me. The entire league system seems completely arbitrary at this point...
"Cliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide" -Tastosis
CrazyPieGuy
Profile Joined March 2012
United States41 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-16 01:11:21
January 16 2014 01:07 GMT
#482
I think this kind of sums up people being ranked lower than they should.
+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]
Yes
Eregos
Profile Joined July 2013
United States34 Posts
January 17 2014 06:59 GMT
#483
Just one-upped you.
+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]

Eregos
Profile Joined July 2013
United States34 Posts
January 19 2014 16:30 GMT
#484
Looking at the guy from my above screenshot who went 124-4 (was since promoted) got me thinking to a similar experience I had over the summer that initially alerted me that something was wrong with the league system. I wonder if part of the problem is that blizzard has actually narrowed the range of possible matches too much. It seems possible to me that reacting to criticism of unfair games, blizzard narrowed the MMR range for potential matches, thinking that would solve the problem... Subjectively to me, search times have seemed a bit longer recently.

The obvious problem with narrowing the MMR search range is that people who have decayed a lot won't get matched against challenging opponents until they grind out a lot of games, thus preventing them from simply *proving* their skill early on. They can go on a long winstreak and only marginally improve their opponents. This was certainly my experience.

Subjectively once again, it seemed to me like the system was more aggressive about matching me with harder opponents when I went on long win streaks back in WoL days. These days you can win dozens of games in a row and have your opponents barely change. Maybe this change is partly because your MMR is less malleable once you've played a lot of games but I don't feel like that would explain all of it.
Eregos
Profile Joined July 2013
United States34 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-19 16:51:05
January 19 2014 16:50 GMT
#485
Totally different question but, is it 100% confirmed that losing a game stops decay? Or is it still possible that only winning a game stops decay?
Detri
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United Kingdom683 Posts
January 19 2014 16:56 GMT
#486
I read somewhere, I can't find where now... checked that MMR has to stabilize before you get promoted? That is to say, while you are constantly increasing it isn't until you start losing games that your MMR plateaus that you recieved promotions?

I'm having trouble finding the reference though. But that could explain Mr 124:4
The poor are thieves, beggars and whores, the rich are politicians, solicitors and courtesans...
esReveR
Profile Joined February 2010
United States567 Posts
January 19 2014 17:04 GMT
#487
On January 20 2014 01:30 Eregos wrote:
Looking at the guy from my above screenshot who went 124-4 (was since promoted) got me thinking to a similar experience I had over the summer that initially alerted me that something was wrong with the league system. I wonder if part of the problem is that blizzard has actually narrowed the range of possible matches too much. It seems possible to me that reacting to criticism of unfair games, blizzard narrowed the MMR range for potential matches, thinking that would solve the problem... Subjectively to me, search times have seemed a bit longer recently.

The obvious problem with narrowing the MMR search range is that people who have decayed a lot won't get matched against challenging opponents until they grind out a lot of games, thus preventing them from simply *proving* their skill early on. They can go on a long winstreak and only marginally improve their opponents. This was certainly my experience.

Subjectively once again, it seemed to me like the system was more aggressive about matching me with harder opponents when I went on long win streaks back in WoL days. These days you can win dozens of games in a row and have your opponents barely change. Maybe this change is partly because your MMR is less malleable once you've played a lot of games but I don't feel like that would explain all of it.


They definitely did not narrow the MMR range for placement. I am currently plat and played two masters yesterday (one of which was top 8).
Skill is relative.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12235 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-19 17:10:54
January 19 2014 17:09 GMT
#488
You need to take a closer look at that Nerdrrage guy before just posting a screenshot and saying "see?" Take a look at this: http://www.sc2ranks.com/team/am/11003248398/nerdrrage/last-two

It's pretty obvious he's been messing with Leave League or decaying or intentionally losing or all of the above. He started out last season and this season in Bronze and he's been rocketing up the ladder, as you would expect from a Master player. That screenshot you posted was just one stop along his cross-league trip to "pwn noobs". He didn't go 124-4 in Gold league alone. We have similar data from an experiment we ran with HnR)Insane years ago, which led to the discovery of the league offsets.

As far as the search parameters go for matchmaking, Korona believes (he has the match data to back it up) that it prefers opponents who are within the same league as you. So if you are a Gold player and you have two potential opponents in your search range who are an equal distance apart from you, one in Gold and one in Platinum, it will prefer the Gold opponent.

And the outcome of your game doesn't matter for stopping the decay timer. You can win or lose.
Moderator
Eregos
Profile Joined July 2013
United States34 Posts
January 19 2014 23:05 GMT
#489
Interesting points. The other thing I found interesting about that screencap (not something definitive and therefore I don't expect you to necessarily agree) is that the winrates even apart from the top player were rather high and most of the players probably wouldn't be there if it weren't for decay.
Mercy13
Profile Joined January 2011
United States718 Posts
January 20 2014 00:47 GMT
#490
Ugh I wish there was more decay. I'm coming back from like half a year break and I'm 2-15 so far, and still being matched against high diamond players : ( so depressing to try to get decent again.
Kevin_Sorbo
Profile Joined November 2011
Canada3217 Posts
January 20 2014 00:51 GMT
#491
On January 20 2014 09:47 Mercy13 wrote:
Ugh I wish there was more decay. I'm coming back from like half a year break and I'm 2-15 so far, and still being matched against high diamond players : ( so depressing to try to get decent again.

no you dont...
The mind is like a parachute, it doesnt work unless its open. - Zappa
tili
Profile Joined July 2012
United States1332 Posts
January 20 2014 00:54 GMT
#492
On January 20 2014 09:51 Kevin_Sorbo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2014 09:47 Mercy13 wrote:
Ugh I wish there was more decay. I'm coming back from like half a year break and I'm 2-15 so far, and still being matched against high diamond players : ( so depressing to try to get decent again.

no you dont...


If you took a year+ break, you'd start with 0 MMR, so there is something you're leaving out.
Mercy13
Profile Joined January 2011
United States718 Posts
January 20 2014 01:00 GMT
#493
I said about half a year. 20 weeks, to be specific. I think it would be easier to get back into it if I wasn't playing people a ton better than me, but I guess you guys disagree?
Ben...
Profile Joined January 2011
Canada3485 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-20 01:18:42
January 20 2014 01:11 GMT
#494
On January 20 2014 10:00 Mercy13 wrote:
I said about half a year. 20 weeks, to be specific. I think it would be easier to get back into it if I wasn't playing people a ton better than me, but I guess you guys disagree?
Your MMR resets after not placing for a full season so the highest you could have been placed is (from what I remember) Platinum league, and with things how they are, that would probably be a stretch since most former Diamond players are now in Gold or even Silver. A half a year is more than a full season (It's roughly 2-3 seasons). Hence why people are doubting you. The ladder system may be busted, but not THAT busted. It would be more believable if you were in Gold or Silver, where the ladder actually is busted right now and people are experiencing what you described. The higher leagues are the only place where it isn't busted, but instead they are crazy competitive because they are tiny (like a fraction of the number of players in Diamond and Master now. Even Platinum is small. Platinum is now the equivalent of old Diamond/low Master).

And no you don't want more decay. MMR decay is the worst. Have midterms or something that will keep you from playing games for a couple weeks? Well guess what, you get to play 20 meaningless games when you come back because you were too busy being responsible with school to play Starcraft. It's screwed up the entire ladder system pretty badly. I don't think I would stick with the game if I was starting playing it right now and being faced against people completely out of my league (both figuratively and literally in this case).
"Cliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide" -Tastosis
Mercy13
Profile Joined January 2011
United States718 Posts
January 20 2014 03:53 GMT
#495
On January 20 2014 10:11 Ben... wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2014 10:00 Mercy13 wrote:
I said about half a year. 20 weeks, to be specific. I think it would be easier to get back into it if I wasn't playing people a ton better than me, but I guess you guys disagree?
Your MMR resets after not placing for a full season so the highest you could have been placed is (from what I remember) Platinum league, and with things how they are, that would probably be a stretch since most former Diamond players are now in Gold or even Silver. A half a year is more than a full season (It's roughly 2-3 seasons). Hence why people are doubting you. The ladder system may be busted, but not THAT busted. It would be more believable if you were in Gold or Silver, where the ladder actually is busted right now and people are experiencing what you described. The higher leagues are the only place where it isn't busted, but instead they are crazy competitive because they are tiny (like a fraction of the number of players in Diamond and Master now. Even Platinum is small. Platinum is now the equivalent of old Diamond/low Master).

And no you don't want more decay. MMR decay is the worst. Have midterms or something that will keep you from playing games for a couple weeks? Well guess what, you get to play 20 meaningless games when you come back because you were too busy being responsible with school to play Starcraft. It's screwed up the entire ladder system pretty badly. I don't think I would stick with the game if I was starting playing it right now and being faced against people completely out of my league (both figuratively and literally in this case).


Hm that's very weird then because I didn't play any games last season, and this season I was placed in diamond after my first game which was a loss. Here's a link to my profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/656184/1/Mercy/

It has no information on my ladders for last season, which I assume confirms that I haven't played for a long time.

So is this maybe a bug or something?

I see what you mean about MMR decay being a pain under those circumstances. I am just having the opposite problem and it's really frustrating.
Dingobloo
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Australia1903 Posts
January 20 2014 04:09 GMT
#496
Hm I guess i'm not the only one getting these win streaks then, came back from a break and played unranked for a bit and went 15-1, my last match was against someones first ever real game of starcraft (level 6, some ai and novice games then me).

Something does seem pretty busted.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12235 Posts
January 20 2014 06:19 GMT
#497
On January 20 2014 12:53 Mercy13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2014 10:11 Ben... wrote:
On January 20 2014 10:00 Mercy13 wrote:
I said about half a year. 20 weeks, to be specific. I think it would be easier to get back into it if I wasn't playing people a ton better than me, but I guess you guys disagree?
Your MMR resets after not placing for a full season so the highest you could have been placed is (from what I remember) Platinum league, and with things how they are, that would probably be a stretch since most former Diamond players are now in Gold or even Silver. A half a year is more than a full season (It's roughly 2-3 seasons). Hence why people are doubting you. The ladder system may be busted, but not THAT busted. It would be more believable if you were in Gold or Silver, where the ladder actually is busted right now and people are experiencing what you described. The higher leagues are the only place where it isn't busted, but instead they are crazy competitive because they are tiny (like a fraction of the number of players in Diamond and Master now. Even Platinum is small. Platinum is now the equivalent of old Diamond/low Master).

And no you don't want more decay. MMR decay is the worst. Have midterms or something that will keep you from playing games for a couple weeks? Well guess what, you get to play 20 meaningless games when you come back because you were too busy being responsible with school to play Starcraft. It's screwed up the entire ladder system pretty badly. I don't think I would stick with the game if I was starting playing it right now and being faced against people completely out of my league (both figuratively and literally in this case).


Hm that's very weird then because I didn't play any games last season, and this season I was placed in diamond after my first game which was a loss. Here's a link to my profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/656184/1/Mercy/

It has no information on my ladders for last season, which I assume confirms that I haven't played for a long time.

So is this maybe a bug or something?

I see what you mean about MMR decay being a pain under those circumstances. I am just having the opposite problem and it's really frustrating.


I think there's probably a bug in storing the status of some player profiles during a season roll. The way it's supposed to work is that if you played in the previous season, you just play one placement match and your previous season's MMR carries over, but if you didn't play in the previous season, you play five placement matches and start fresh. I've seen almost every variation happen to different people:

1. The player's profile correctly carries over his MMR from last season (most common).
2. The player's MMR is correctly reset due to not playing last season (second most common).
3. The player's MMR incorrectly carries over his MMR from the last recorded value, despite never playing in the previous season (uncommon, I think this may have happened to you).
4. The player's MMR incorrectly carries over from the last recorded value AND the decay timer resets with each season missed (rare, and this has caused high-MMR players to come back after a nine-month hiatus and find themselves in Bronze).
Moderator
tombigbimbom
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
12 Posts
January 20 2014 06:52 GMT
#498
For the love of god, people, stop spreading misleading crap just to make yourselves feel better about your losses. MMR Decay is legit and whatever "experiences" you've had are completely unrelated to its existence.

I used to be GM back in 2011 and when I play a full season I tend to be rank1 in Masters. I was inactive for a long period of time after season 1 of HotS, but I played a game here and there to get placed each season. As a result I suffered full duration MMR decays four or five times in a row. After so many decays it dropped me to _Diamond_ where I play the range between top diamond and low master and my games are pretty competitive (as in, I lose some games here and there). I'm an experienced RTS player (started with BW in 1999, A on ICCup, played SCII since day one), so inactivity affects me only a little bit, as playing the game comes to me naturally and automatically, minus up-to-date builds and timings. Considering the league distribution is messed up right now, it seems to me that the decay doesn't have much of an impact.

I'm really sorry guys, but I suppose you'll just have to learn to deal with your losses. If you meet "a master league player" in gold or plat, then if this guy spent the past 8 months playing one game a season, he is at most a very rusty mid-diamond player who was masters one time when HotS released and all forever diamond players got to taste an undeserved promotion for a season. You're not playing past GMs, you're playing people of your skill level, more or less.
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic12129 Posts
January 20 2014 10:07 GMT
#499
On January 20 2014 15:52 tombigbimbom wrote:
For the love of god, people, stop spreading misleading crap just to make yourselves feel better about your losses. MMR Decay is legit and whatever "experiences" you've had are completely unrelated to its existence.

I used to be GM back in 2011 and when I play a full season I tend to be rank1 in Masters. I was inactive for a long period of time after season 1 of HotS, but I played a game here and there to get placed each season. As a result I suffered full duration MMR decays four or five times in a row. After so many decays it dropped me to _Diamond_ where I play the range between top diamond and low master and my games are pretty competitive (as in, I lose some games here and there). I'm an experienced RTS player (started with BW in 1999, A on ICCup, played SCII since day one), so inactivity affects me only a little bit, as playing the game comes to me naturally and automatically, minus up-to-date builds and timings. Considering the league distribution is messed up right now, it seems to me that the decay doesn't have much of an impact.

I'm really sorry guys, but I suppose you'll just have to learn to deal with your losses. If you meet "a master league player" in gold or plat, then if this guy spent the past 8 months playing one game a season, he is at most a very rusty mid-diamond player who was masters one time when HotS released and all forever diamond players got to taste an undeserved promotion for a season. You're not playing past GMs, you're playing people of your skill level, more or less.


"It works for me fine, therefore it works for everyone fine. Case closed."

Well guess what, there are players, who experience terrible days on ladder and because Blizzard is doing literally nothing, those players are slowly stopping to play. Yaaaay. In my team there are 3 people who were placed in gold/platinum last season(also who are former masters being long inactive, like 3-4 games a season for a long time). All of them had over 70 % win ratio. They are describing their ladder play "roflt stomp around 50 % of my games, maybe more". I don't know how is their play now since I don't play, because when I am on the end of the roflstom it's not nice experience. I know, I'm not good, but why the hell I have to have score 3-27(or something like this)? I play over 200 games every season, the system should know what opponents I should get though I'm getting players level or two above my skill. I know I can't win all the time, but why am I losing all the time? Tell me, pretty please.
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
tombigbimbom
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
12 Posts
January 20 2014 10:55 GMT
#500
On January 20 2014 19:07 deacon.frost wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2014 15:52 tombigbimbom wrote:
For the love of god, people, stop spreading misleading crap just to make yourselves feel better about your losses. MMR Decay is legit and whatever "experiences" you've had are completely unrelated to its existence.

I used to be GM back in 2011 and when I play a full season I tend to be rank1 in Masters. I was inactive for a long period of time after season 1 of HotS, but I played a game here and there to get placed each season. As a result I suffered full duration MMR decays four or five times in a row. After so many decays it dropped me to _Diamond_ where I play the range between top diamond and low master and my games are pretty competitive (as in, I lose some games here and there). I'm an experienced RTS player (started with BW in 1999, A on ICCup, played SCII since day one), so inactivity affects me only a little bit, as playing the game comes to me naturally and automatically, minus up-to-date builds and timings. Considering the league distribution is messed up right now, it seems to me that the decay doesn't have much of an impact.

I'm really sorry guys, but I suppose you'll just have to learn to deal with your losses. If you meet "a master league player" in gold or plat, then if this guy spent the past 8 months playing one game a season, he is at most a very rusty mid-diamond player who was masters one time when HotS released and all forever diamond players got to taste an undeserved promotion for a season. You're not playing past GMs, you're playing people of your skill level, more or less.


"It works for me fine, therefore it works for everyone fine. Case closed."

Well guess what, there are players, who experience terrible days on ladder and because Blizzard is doing literally nothing, those players are slowly stopping to play. Yaaaay. In my team there are 3 people who were placed in gold/platinum last season(also who are former masters being long inactive, like 3-4 games a season for a long time). All of them had over 70 % win ratio. They are describing their ladder play "roflt stomp around 50 % of my games, maybe more". I don't know how is their play now since I don't play, because when I am on the end of the roflstom it's not nice experience. I know, I'm not good, but why the hell I have to have score 3-27(or something like this)? I play over 200 games every season, the system should know what opponents I should get though I'm getting players level or two above my skill. I know I can't win all the time, but why am I losing all the time? Tell me, pretty please.


I'm sorry, but you're _literally_ wrong about the first part, so I suggest you http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/blog/12055065get yourself better informed first instead of jumping to wrong conclusions.

What you say doesn't prove anything to me, cause the ladder has always been so tight that as, e.g. a ~1500 master, I can stomp people at ~1400. And if you think that the release of HotS and the seasons that came after it didn't have an effect on the system, then you're also missing out on seeing the correct/full picture.

As for the rest, I guess we'll just have to assume that I'm in a different ladder system than you are or the rules are different for me... or you're exaggerating like most people here, which is why I'm not even going to comment on your numbers and statistics.

Based on your post I also think you're just in a habit of making excuses and you're quite likely blowing this thing out of proportion as part of that. I just very clearly told you how many full decays it took to drop from top masters to mid diamond, but you refuse to listen to facts and would rather believe that the decay is somehow working against you to the point where you can't win. Again, it's four/five full decays (over 4 seasons) and I wonder how many people have actually done that considering Masters used to be 2-4% of the population. We'd be talking about what, 0.25% of players, if even that many? For such a tiny fraction, they've really caused a lot of distress to make ladder so "terrible", that most people between Bronze and Platinum are "playing mostly Masters". You're barking up the wrong tree and convinced yourself that the sole reason for your losses is the ladder system treating you unfairly. Even here, a lot of people believe in some kind of a conspiracy or make up "evidence" to prove that this is somehow true.

Maybe it's just your playstyle that's gotten affected? Maybe you've changed your play because of this belief or you're so behind in meta that you can't figure our how to beat your opponents? Problem is, RTS games are really niche and not for everyone and there are reasons for that. To play a competitive game like SC2 you actually need to be objective, be critical of yourself and like to take on new challenges to improve your play. If all you're going to do is come up with excuses and jumping on the flavor of the week bandwagon of "this is why I can't win" like many others, then maybe it's not for you. Playing competitive RTS is hard and it's been fading away as a genre for a few years now for a reason.
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