• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
TeamLiquid Liquipedia LiquidDota LiquidLegends
EDT 16:24
CEST 22:24
KST 05:24
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Shopify TSL 717WTL 2021 Summer - Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview11Code S RO16 Preview: Trap, Armani, sOs, Zest5Code S RO16 Preview: Rogue, Zoun, INnoVation, Dark11[ASL11] Ro24 Preview Pt 3:Contenders and Streamers10
Community News
FlaSh going to army in 3 weeks45ESL Open Week #66: Stats, Clem, Solar win6Code S RO16: Rogue and INno advance to the RO89ByuN to begin wrist treatment12New Worlds Map Contest: ALL SUBMISSIONS56
StarCraft 2
General
Shopify TSL 7 WTL 2021 Summer - Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview [GSL] Music List Code S RO16: Rogue and INno advance to the RO8 Code S RO16 Preview: Trap, Armani, sOs, Zest
Tourneys
[WTL 2021] Summer - Week 4 Genesis Legends Inv #6 Apr 16/18th 7PM CET [GSL 2021] Code S - Group D The Siege Perilous - $5,000 in top-end hardware! Team GP Cup
Strategy
How to Defeat Protoss - Part 1: Powering Simple Questions Simple Answers Practice Partner Thread Season 1 - 2018 How to Break the F2 Hotkey Addiction
Custom Maps
[M] (2) Routavaara [M] (2) Tropical Sacrifice [M] (4)Nautilus [UMS] Micro Match
External Content
The StarCraft Observer Podcast Episode #5 The Pylon Show Mutation # 260 Fright night Mutation # 259 Breath Of Destruction
Brood War
General
Ladder statistics race distribution (2021?) FlaSh going to army in 3 weeks [ShowMatch] Foreign All-Star vs Korean Gamer BW General Discussion Unimpressed Flash Meme
Tourneys
Reps.Ru Victory Day present New Worlds Map Contest: ALL SUBMISSIONS BSL12 - Russia Puts in Money BSL 2v2 Showmatch - MadiNho/KenZy vs Scan/BishOp
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Fog of War Noises Sorry's TvP lategame Ghost strategies? pvz FE, goons opening
Other Games
Heroes of the Storm
HotS: WP and Funny Moments [HotS] CCL Season 2: ONYX [HotS] The Road to Paris QQ/Rage Thread. Simple Questions, Simple Answers
General Games
Path of Exile Cyberpunk 2077 Genshin Impact - Coop RPG Diablo 2 thread Final Fantasy XIV
TL Mafia
[M][N] Mafia Mafia: Mafia Edition Active List of Mafia Games 2.0 TL Mafia Community Thread Active List of Mafia Games [M][T] Poker Mafia
Hearthstone
Is Hearthstone Gambling?
LoL General
LoL Tournaments
LoL Strategy
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Coronavirus and You NASA and the Private Sector Trading/Investing Thread Men go body sculpting
Fan Clubs
The Scarlett Fan Club The One And Only Incredible Acer.Bly Fan Club! The TY Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Korean Music Discussion [TV] HBO Game of Thrones Hip Hop / Rap Music Discussion Movie Discussion!
Sports
2020 - 2021 Football Thread NBA General Discussion 2020 NFL and College Football Corona Season Formula1 2019 TL Golf Thread
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread Simple Questions Simple Answers Help! i need a low profile keyboard!!!
TL Community
Recent Gifted Posts The Automated Ban List Ask TL Staff Anything
Blogs
The StarCraft O…
TheStarCraftObserver
Magic the Gathering Cu…
TheRealNanMan
Whale Watching at Hervey Bay i…
Tak3r
To Be a Vtuber
Zambrah
Help me win a vacation by watc…
Chosi
Golf Battle Report (Persona…
FlaShFTW
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1081 users

Aligulac.com changelog and feedback thread - Page 5

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 32 33 34 Next All
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5132 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-24 08:20:03
May 24 2013 08:16 GMT
#81
Hey,

On May 24 2013 06:36 Grayson Carlyle wrote:
In other words, if a player with a rating of 1900 goes 1-0 against 4 players whose average rating is 1700, is it the same as going 4-0 against a single player in a single series?

Yes, this is the same.

On May 24 2013 06:36 Grayson Carlyle wrote:
The former's median outcome from prediction, on a game per game basis would be the sum of the expected median outcomes of each individual one: 4-0. Whereas the expected median outcome of the latter is 4-3.

Ah, the median predicted outcome (MPO) you see on the prediction pages are not the same as the expected outcome (EO) you see on the adjustment overview. The differences are:
  • MPO is always integral, while EO are real numbers.
  • When calculating MPO, we don't know how long the match will go. It's a measure of the closeness of the players, not a good estimate of the length of the match (in fact, it will overestimate match lengths consistently). The EO is expected score given the total number of games in the match.
So in your example, if the 1900 guy 4-0's the 1700 guy, that is four games. The EO can then be something like 2.8-1.2, or some other numbers who sum up to four. Of course these are impossible scores to actually get in a Bo7, even if we were to round them off, but the match format is inconsequential to the rating calculator.

So the EO is actual expected score given the games that were actually played (and is comparable to the same concept in Elo ratings), while the MPO is just "our best guess" at the actually possible outcome that would be least surprising.

Hope that clarified things.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Grayson Carlyle
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada218 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-24 14:13:43
May 24 2013 14:13 GMT
#82
That does clarify it a bit, but it doesn't address the issue that the expected outcome of a Bo1 is always on average 50% away from actual possible outcomes, so playing Bo1s still has a larger impact on a player's rating (both up and down) than longer series, whereas longer series are actually a better indication of a player's true rating, but they will inevitably have a lesser effect on the accuracy.
Take what ye can
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5132 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-24 14:49:07
May 24 2013 14:47 GMT
#83
On May 24 2013 23:13 Grayson Carlyle wrote:
playing Bo1s still has a larger impact on a player's rating (both up and down) than longer series

I don't know why you say that, I told you that the distribution of the games into matches has no effect.

Playing four Bo1s against the same person and winning them all 1-0 has exactly the same effect as playing one Bo7 and winning it 4-0.

Playing one Bo1 and winning it 1-0 will gain you about one quarter of the points as playing one Bo7 and winning it 4-0. (Because in the first scenario there are only a quarter of the games).

In a longer match you can get closer to the expected outcome overall, but of course a longer match means more games, so your rating will change that much more.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
KillerDucky
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States498 Posts
May 24 2013 14:56 GMT
#84
Grayson: If you take several individual BO1s together, the average of the *absolute value* of the difference between the expected and actual outcome is 0.5. But you should not be ignoring the sign of the difference. Some will be wins and some losses.


MarineKingPrime Forever!
Grayson Carlyle
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada218 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-24 16:05:58
May 24 2013 16:04 GMT
#85
On May 24 2013 23:47 TheBB wrote:
Playing four Bo1s against the same person and winning them all 1-0 has exactly the same effect as playing one Bo7 and winning it 4-0.

In a longer match you can get closer to the expected outcome overall, but of course a longer match means more games, so your rating will change that much more.


That's my point though, is that playing 4 Bo1s should not have the same effect since it is impossible for them to be anywhere close to the expected outcome except in a situation where a player is highly favoured over the other. The possible outcomes of 4 Bo1s against different people is far more limited and doesn't give nearly as much useful, predictive power as someone winning a Bo7 4-0. The latter is very significant for determining skill, whereas the Bo1s are not significant. However, they both have the same effect on rating.
Take what ye can
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5132 Posts
May 24 2013 16:38 GMT
#86
Sorry, but I really can't understand why it's less significant for someone to win four Bo1s in a row than to win a Bo7 4-0, since they are the exact same thing.

If the expected outcome of a single game is 0.5-0.5, then after four Bo1s it's possible to be off by 2, 1, or 0, and after a Bo7 it's possible to be off by 2, 1.5, 1, 0.5 or 0. It provides finer resolution but the extremes are identical.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
KillerDucky
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States498 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-05-24 16:55:45
May 24 2013 16:46 GMT
#87
If you 4-0 someone, why should it matter if it was part of a BO7 (cut short because you already won) or 4 individual BO1s? Don't they both show exactly the same information? They played 4 times, and one player won all 4. Why should it matter if it was part of a match or not? If they played 3 more games, the previous 4-0 result should have no impact on the results of the next games.

If you are talking about psychological effects, yes those are ignored by pretty much all rating systems. There are all kinds of things outside of the game that are ignored -- like how much sleep the player got before the match etc.

==============
ETA an example conversation:
KD: Hey aligulac, TerranOP beat ZergSux 4-0. What are their new ratings?
Aligulac: KD, first you need to tell me, was the 4-0 part of a BO7? Or Two BO3s? Or 4 BO1s? Or maybe it's a BO101, but they had to stop early?
KD: I don't know, I just know they played 4 games and TerranOP won them all.
Aligulac: Sorry I can't update their ratings without knowing what the match format was.

This simply isn't the way rating systems work. They always assume each game is an independent event.


MarineKingPrime Forever!
KillerDucky
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States498 Posts
May 24 2013 17:15 GMT
#88
Different subject: I saw the graph of points transfer from foreigners to Koreans. You could go back to the beginning and increase the initial seeded ratings of Koreans until the points transfer is near zero.
MarineKingPrime Forever!
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5132 Posts
May 24 2013 17:20 GMT
#89
On May 25 2013 02:15 KillerDucky wrote:
Different subject: I saw the graph of points transfer from foreigners to Koreans. You could go back to the beginning and increase the initial seeded ratings of Koreans until the points transfer is near zero.

Yeah, I've thought about doing exactly this. I'm sure it would help a lot with these perceived problems.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5132 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-01 15:46:01
June 01 2013 13:48 GMT
#90
The most significant improvements made over the last month:

Stories: yellow dots on players' rating charts to show important career events. Also red dots for team switches.

Added comparison feature to help compare players directly against each other.

Improved error/success/warning/info messages for every page.

Player match history filtering significantly improved.

Condensed the small events lists.

Predictions are now default best of 1.

When searching for events, you can now use quotes to improve results (code S used to match code A because the S matches the S in GSL, now you can write "code s" to get what you want).

URL shortener function on every page (button on the bottom.)
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3781 Posts
June 01 2013 21:10 GMT
#91
Also

I've been promising a change in the rating algorithm for a while now, and finally it's here. The changes are numerous, but the most significant are:

Koreans now start with 1200 points, not 1000. This might be a bit controversial, but it goes a long way to fixing the rating discrepancy between the Korean and foreign scenes, and it is justified by the numbers.
Offline games are now weighted heavier than online games by a factor of 1.5. This has sped up the point transfer from ESF to KeSPA.
There are no longer any "fake games" in added to avoid infinities.
I won't promise that this is the final version, however!
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
fezvez
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
France2903 Posts
June 01 2013 21:16 GMT
#92
A very small mistake, but in the OP, there is a milestone set in 2014 (rather than obviously 2013)

Apart from that, thanks for your job. It has de facto replaced TLPD for me. That's a damn awesome website.
Dumbledore
Profile Joined April 2011
Sweden722 Posts
June 01 2013 21:23 GMT
#93
2014-04-20: Links to Aligulac player profiles on Liquipedia.

2014 already? O.O
Have a nice day ;)
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5132 Posts
June 01 2013 21:25 GMT
#94
I guess now is as good a time as any to reveal that I'm the next doctor.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Boucot
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
France15997 Posts
June 01 2013 21:25 GMT
#95
You killed the ForGGeddon, I will never forgive you.
Former SC2 writer for Millenium - twitter.com/Boucot
Wodger
Profile Joined October 2008
Scotland380 Posts
June 01 2013 21:26 GMT
#96
You're not really using statistics? you traveled to the future and know all the results?
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3781 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-01 21:37:32
June 01 2013 21:37 GMT
#97
On June 02 2013 06:26 Wodger wrote:
You're not really using statistics? you traveled to the future and know all the results?

* Doom zoom*
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada16308 Posts
June 01 2013 21:39 GMT
#98
The recent model of basing the calculations seems to be the move in the right direction. I'm pleased with the increase to Korean numbers, and changing online tournaments to weigh less than offline is just perfect. Now when I look at the rankings, it seems reasonable and accurate because the inflation from online games is gone and KeSPA is better represented.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
edwahn
Profile Joined March 2011
New Zealand121 Posts
June 01 2013 21:40 GMT
#99
Love the new update. I think the offline factor is absolutely the right thing to do. People remember champions for offline tournaments, not online ones!

The Hall of Fame now much more resembles my memory of who I thought were dominant. Thanks for the hard work!
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3781 Posts
June 01 2013 21:43 GMT
#100
On June 02 2013 06:40 edwahn wrote:
Love the new update. I think the offline factor is absolutely the right thing to do. People remember champions for offline tournaments, not online ones!

The Hall of Fame now much more resembles my memory of who I thought were dominant. Thanks for the hard work!

The HoF wasn't really taken that much into consideration, we all agreed that it needed som rework. I guess this update had a good side effect on that as well
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 32 33 34 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Best of the Best Tour
19:00
Round-Robin $ Matches!
TerrOr vs trutaCz
Bonyth vs kogeT
ox.tQ204
LiquipediaDiscussion
CreightonOlsen Tournament
16:00
The Siege Perilous - Quali #4
souL vs BlyLIVE!
Cure vs TBD
CreightonOlsen986
IndyStarCraft 691
3DClanTV 229
aXEnki
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mouzHeroMarine 1319
IndyStarCraft 691
SC2ShoWTimE 567
UpATree 157
ZombieGrub94
SKillous 81
Nathanias 68
Mackintac 38
PiLiPiLi 12
StarCraft: Brood War
Mini 986
Shuttle 495
ggaemo 314
Snow 89
sSak 73
NaDa 53
PianO 35
Shine 9
ZZZero.O 9
Heroes of the Storm
Grubby1941
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
bouly6
Super Smash Bros
PPMD303
Other Games
FalleN 4115
Day[9].tv892
fl0m756
MaximusBlack690
Lowko631
ToD557
Mew2King403
RotterdaM271
Happy239
crisheroes213
KnowMe186
ProTech159
Trikslyr109
StaRiX43
JuggernautJason32
EmSc Tv 18
Organizations
Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
ESL CS:GO2495
Other Games
BasetradeTV222
StarCraft 2
ESL.tv206
OGamingTV SC2 191
Other Games
EmSc Tv 18
StarCraft 2
EmSc2Tv 18
Blizzard YouTube
[ Show 22 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• zuka 65
• EnkiAlexander 22
• D4rkn0ob1k 11
• angryscii 9
• DreinarK 6
• Alpha X_
• Genesis Gaming
• AlphaB_SC2
• Migwel
• Matiz_pl
• Laughngamez YouTube
• LaughNgamez Trovo
• IndyKCrew
• Gussbus
• gravity620
• intothetv
• AweesomeSauce
• Kozan
SC2: Legacy of the Void
• KarlJayG
StarCraft: Brood War
• Michael_bg 8
• sscaitournament3
• AfreecaTV YouTube
Upcoming Events
PSISTORM Gaming Misc
3h 7m
Foul Play NA Showmatch
3h 37m
OSC
3h 37m
PSISTORM Gaming Misc
5h 37m
Grand Platypus Open
11h 37m
CreightonOlsen Tournament
19h 37m
BSL 2v2 Tournament
19h 37m
BW Jeez Weekly
20h 37m
Alpha X Junior Champion…
20h 37m
Theleo-ua Showmatch Ser…
22h 37m
eOnzErG vs Casper
[ Show More ]
Best of the Best Tour
1d
Cross vs OyAji
DragOn vs TerrOr
Cross vs trutaCz
OSC
1d 2h
PSISTORM Gaming Misc
1d 5h
Alpha Pro Series
1d 5h
Future vs ArT
TriGGeR vs Erik
EPT Open Cups
1d 6h
Afreeca Starleague
1d 13h
BeAsT Cup
1d 15h
Alpha X Event
1d 15h
Starkiller vs Mamba
Asuna vs TBD
CreightonOlsen Tournament
1d 19h
WardiTV Spring Champion…
1d 19h
BSL: Ladder Tournament
1d 19h
Genesis Legends Cup
1d 20h
Online Event
2 days
SpeCial vs Astrea
GSL Code S
2 days
Bunny vs Dream
Rogue vs Zest
IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit
2 days
ByuN vs Zest
DongRaeGu vs Zoun
EPT Open Cups
2 days
EPT Open Cups
3 days
Afreeca Starleague
3 days
OlimoLeague
3 days
WardiTV Spring Champion…
3 days
ByuN vs Solar
ByuN vs Trap
ByuN vs Zest
Zoun vs Cure
Zoun vs DongRaeGu
Trap vs Zest
Solar vs Zest
Solar vs Trap
KCM Race Survival
4 days
Team GP event
4 days
KeeN vs Percival
CreightonOlsen Tournament
4 days
GSL Code S
5 days
Hurricane vs Maru
INnoVation vs Trap
KCM Ladies Race Survival
5 days
IntoTheAlphaX Pro Circuit
5 days
Bunny vs Armani
Solar vs Creator
WardiTV Spring Champion…
5 days
BSL: Ladder Tournament
5 days
OSC
5 days
Online Event
6 days
CreightonOlsen Tournament
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

BSL11 GosuLeague
2021 GSL S1: Code A
Nexus Forces Tour. Q2
ESL Pro League Season 13

Ongoing

Foreign All-Star vs Korean Gamer
ASL Season 11
Bombastic StarLeague 12
Russian Hasu League 2021
Best of the Best Tour
KCM Race Survival 2021 Season 1
Deathfate Pro League 1
Ultimate Battle: Soma vs JyJ
WTL 2021 Summer
2021 GSL S1: Code S
WardiTV Spring Championship 2021
Masters Clash Champ. 2021
Nexus Forces Tour.
NGS Storm Division S2
JMcGPlays ARAM Tournament
Spring Sweet Spring #1
BLAST Premier Spring Showd.
ESEA S36 - NA Premier
ESEA S36 - EU Premier
ESEA S36 - AU Premier

Upcoming

BSL12 GosuLeague
theleo_ua showmatch 3
BW Jeez Weekly 109
BW Jeez Weekly 108
CasterMuse Narak StarLeague Season 4
theleo_ua showmatch 2
BW Jeez Weekly 107
DH Masters Summer: Finals
TSL 7
NeXT 2021 S1–SC2 Masters
2021 AfreecaTV GSL Super Tournament 2
DHM Summer: China
DHM Summer: NA
DHM Summer: Oceania
DHM Summer: Asia
DHM Summer: LatAm
DHM Summer: Europe
Community Clash League S2
CCL Season 2 Icebreaker
ESL One Cologne 2021
BLAST Premier Spring Finals
IEM Summer 2021
cs_summit 8
Flashpoint Season 3
DH Masters Spring 2021
CBCS Elite League S1
Perfect World League S1
Funspark ULTI 2020
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2021 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.