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On December 06 2011 06:22 forsooth wrote:
TvP shift is unsurprising. EMP nerf was premature and didn't address any of the weaknesses Protoss actually had. Nerfing Terran's only useful higher tech/AOE unit in the matchup only made the late game more lopsided in favor of Protoss and the continued refinement of anti-1/1/1 openers means less wins. We'll see where this goes, but I'm still not feeling like it's worth it to stop cheesing Protoss on ladder.
the emp nerf has a lot to do with it, but i think the real shift in winrates is because of the map pool, namely calm before the storm is clearly intentionally designed to be a protoss favored map
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On December 06 2011 06:22 fraktoasters wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 05:53 pPingu wrote:On December 06 2011 05:46 Ctuchik wrote:On December 06 2011 05:05 KiLL_ORdeR wrote:
Why are the stats for koreans included with foreigners? Should be separate imo since it's pretty well known that korean terrans > everyone else. http://imgur.com/a/ZflZ7#0Korea only! Protoss doing well in korea, quite the same for pvt Don't know what to think about tvz, some zergs are doing really well in zvt Leenock does well in ZvT. Not sure who else you're talking about. DRG and Nestea have more losses in ZvT than wins in this current GSL.
DRG and Leenock are both over 60% ZvT and Nestea is at about 56% in spite of how often he hits MVP (and to a lesser extent MMA). A single season without success doesn't suddenly mean a player isn't good at a matchup anymore. It's just an off month.
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Switzerland2892 Posts
On December 06 2011 06:22 fraktoasters wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 05:53 pPingu wrote:On December 06 2011 05:46 Ctuchik wrote:On December 06 2011 05:05 KiLL_ORdeR wrote:
Why are the stats for koreans included with foreigners? Should be separate imo since it's pretty well known that korean terrans > everyone else. http://imgur.com/a/ZflZ7#0Korea only! Protoss doing well in korea, quite the same for pvt Don't know what to think about tvz, some zergs are doing really well in zvt Leenock does well in ZvT. Not sure who else you're talking about. DRG and Nestea have more losses in ZvT than wins in this current GSL.
Oh yeah, didn't realize it, I thought it was 50/50 in gsl
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I am confused. Does equal stats really mean that all players, playing equal opponents and have the same winrates mean
the game is ballanced? It does but that means that all players have around the same skill. Looks like blizzard is balancing
players instead, but this is not a rant and the game seems quite balanced now.Was just pondering.
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I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember.
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On December 06 2011 06:30 Jinx... wrote:
I am confused. Does equal stats really mean that all players, playing equal opponents and have the same winrates mean
the game is ballanced? It does but that means that all players have around the same skill. Looks like blizzard is balancing
players instead, but this is not a rant and the game seems quite balanced now.Was just pondering.
Well, you cannot really compare the skill of the players of the different races. There is just little reason to assume that one race is chosen by inferior players more frequently. So the best assumption is that there is equal talent in all races and balance the game in a way that the winrates average at 50%.
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On December 06 2011 06:32 bikefrog wrote:
I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember.
Terran isn't lazy, all you need to do is look at the wide variety of TvT and TvZ (you know, the two most refined and technical matchups in the game) builds in place to see that Terrans do a great deal of experimentation. The problem with TvP is that anything besides MMM/V/G simply does not work. All we can do is work on getting better and better with the bio ball because mech is essentially useless vs Protoss.
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Could you please adjust the scale to really make what people would normally interpret as 0% be 0% and not 40% ? That would solve a lot of the whining, because it wouldn't blow up moderate differences to huge ones.
This is a perfect example of how statistics can lie.
glad to see sc2 approaching balance :D
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Protoss gets a few percent higher than Terran which BY THE WAY has been above the 50% forever now and Terran starts to think its all about the EMP nerf? Let's address the real issue which is the 1-1-1 advantage (not just doing the 1-1-1 but also using it as a mind game to get ahead economically in the early game), protoss winrate rising could only mean it was due to maps that allow protoss an accessible natural expo quickly such as CBTS, otherwise 1-1-1 is still an issue imo.
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40/60 is when the game is broken anyway so a 40/60 scale is best.
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On December 06 2011 06:35 forsooth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 06:32 bikefrog wrote:
I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember. Terran isn't lazy, all you need to do is look at the wide variety of TvT and TvZ (you know, the two most refined and technical matchups in the game) builds in place to see that Terrans do a great deal of experimentation. The problem with TvP is that anything besides MMM/V/G simply does not work. All we can do is work on getting better and better with the bio ball because mech is essentially useless vs Protoss.
It hasn't been tested properly. Pro's focus on current effective strategies rather than figuring out new ones. Variety in TvT and TvZ is fine. Maybe that's why you're doing so good in the matchup to begin with? I barely ever see Hellion harrass in Diamond League for example. The Raven is extremely good against Stalkers, but still you rarely ever see Terran utilize them. Get a few Marauders and you can still kite chargelots with proper micro fyi.
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On December 06 2011 06:35 forsooth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 06:32 bikefrog wrote:
I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember. Terran isn't lazy, all you need to do is look at the wide variety of TvT and TvZ (you know, the two most refined and technical matchups in the game) builds in place to see that Terrans do a great deal of experimentation. The problem with TvP is that anything besides MMM/V/G simply does not work. All we can do is work on getting better and better with the bio ball because mech is essentially useless vs Protoss.
We heard Protosses say that they had tried everything and could not come up with anything to help improve their situation.
Then a soft buff of WPs and Immortals came, Protosses (re-) discovered their potential and it seems as if it helped to some degree. I would not deny that lower upgrade costs and the EMP nerf further helped Protoss, but looking at how ridiculously strong EMP was against Protoss (and it still is) I believe it to be justified.
If it was too much, time will tell.
But if it turns out that balance is now in favour of Toss, then
a.) Terrans will have to innovate
b.) Blizzard will give minor buffs to Terran
c.) both will happen in combination
Oh and one thing Toss players had to "accept" after they got nerfed and started complaining, I will now throw out for everyone complaining about P being OP:
When some race dominated another, and buffs and play style innovation overcome this, the pendulum swings back a bit further,
In other words: Let us see for a bit how things are going to work out...
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On December 06 2011 06:32 bikefrog wrote:
I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember.
Nice to see the P players arguing the same way I was after the buff.
EDIT: Yea, it is annoying!
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It's kinda funny how protosses were whining imbalance when tvp was 55 % for terran's favor but now it's reversed and it has come balanced :D
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On December 06 2011 06:35 forsooth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 06:32 bikefrog wrote:
I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember. Terran isn't lazy, all you need to do is look at the wide variety of TvT and TvZ (you know, the two most refined and technical matchups in the game) builds in place to see that Terrans do a great deal of experimentation. The problem with TvP is that anything besides MMM/V/G simply does not work. All we can do is work on getting better and better with the bio ball because mech is essentially useless vs Protoss.
I don't like this attitude. I'm not going to say it's viable, but mech is hardly ever experimented. 1-1-1 is a bio/mech push and it is the most powerful push Terran can do. Lately, MVP and Puma have been doing 2 base 1-1-1 as well. Maybe it isn't viable in long games, maybe you can only use it in timing pushes, but to say it's completely useless after not seeing a single mech game (besides MC vs Jinro, the only game I can think of) is the wrong way to approach things.
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Switzerland2892 Posts
On December 06 2011 06:48 Mayd wrote:
It's kinda funny how protosses were whining imbalance when tvp was 55 % for terran's favor but now it's reversed and it has come balanced :D
Being at 45% win for 6 months and 1month isn't really the same thing
And when the game will be balanced (if it isn't now), there will never be 50/50 win ratio, it will favor a race or an other during 1-3 months, before concluding something you must wait
On December 06 2011 06:54 K3Nyy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 06:35 forsooth wrote:On December 06 2011 06:32 bikefrog wrote:
I think TvP is fine atm. The close series between HerO and PuMa are a good example of that imo. I feel like Terran are a bit lazy when it comes to ingenuity and variety as of late. Stuck in the old ways while Protoss play is evolving more. Guessing 51/49 in T's favour for desember. Terran isn't lazy, all you need to do is look at the wide variety of TvT and TvZ (you know, the two most refined and technical matchups in the game) builds in place to see that Terrans do a great deal of experimentation. The problem with TvP is that anything besides MMM/V/G simply does not work. All we can do is work on getting better and better with the bio ball because mech is essentially useless vs Protoss. I don't like this attitude. I'm not going to say it's viable, but mech is hardly ever experimented. 1-1-1 is a bio/mech push and it is the most powerful push Terran can do. Lately, MVP and Puma have been doing 2 base 1-1-1 as well. Maybe it isn't viable in long games, maybe you can only use it in timing pushes, but to say it's completely useless after not seeing a single mech game (besides MC vs Jinro, the only game I can think of) is the wrong way to approach things.
Jjakji did a mech game vs puzzle and won, but I don't know if it's because puzzle wasn't prepared for it or if it is viable
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On December 06 2011 06:33 Sandermatt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 06:30 Jinx... wrote:
I am confused. Does equal stats really mean that all players, playing equal opponents and have the same winrates mean
the game is ballanced? It does but that means that all players have around the same skill. Looks like blizzard is balancing
players instead, but this is not a rant and the game seems quite balanced now.Was just pondering. Well, you cannot really compare the skill of the players of the different races. There is just little reason to assume that one race is chosen by inferior players more frequently. So the best assumption is that there is equal talent in all races and balance the game in a way that the winrates average at 50%.
I get that, but an assumption is an assumption. We can assume that players from one race are terrible and that the race is totaly op or that all players are quite the same skill level. So givin nov 2011, I just find it strange all that races have about 1% difference, Becauce all players are not of the same skill level.So what im trying to say is the game can be balanced and have zerg win 75% of the games for example. It just seems the game is tweaked, you know what i mean?
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On December 05 2011 21:15 storywriter wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 21:00 Liquid`Jinro wrote:On December 05 2011 20:38 Plansix wrote:On December 05 2011 20:33 k10forgotten wrote:On December 05 2011 19:52 fraktoasters wrote:
Well PvT changed pretty dramatically. I'm just glad the protoss whining has calmed down a lot because it was at a pretty ridiculous level at one point. I hope you don't mind the Terran whining that's already started. Oh it has begun. There are some amazing threads about "SC2 is like.....hard now". Now that they have to aim their EMPs and can no longer stick on MMMGV for the entire game, we might see them not fly their factory around as much. .... People calling terran easy are honestly all retarded. If you dont want us to stay on MMMGV how about you suggest a single T3 unit that doesnt get countered by feedback? Oh you cant? Ok, then STFU. Terran is a hard race. Anyway, I think TvP looks pretty OK at the moment... It's even a little bit varied. Terran is by no means an easy race to play (except for mules) but I feel that saying you can't use tier 3 units because of feedback is going a little too far. It's not like archons and HTs don't see any use because of EMP. I'm still waiting for terrans to start adding in raven+banshee in late game with their excess gas. This combination looks incredibly powerful for a number of reasons. 1. ravens allow sniping of observers. 2. ravens counter both phoenixes and stalkers with PDD. 3. terran already gets ship attack upgrades and they scale super well on banshees. Armour doesn't matter as much thanks to PDD. While I acknowledge that feedback counters both units, PDD can always be cast pre-emptively, ghosts can take out HTs and as a last resort, banshees can burn energy. In worst case scenario, the feedbacked banshee/raven has most likely prevented a storm. This will of course require immensely difficult micro from the terran but I feel like that's what SC has always been about: beating the metagame by getting better (even if it feels like you have to play better than your opponent).
Feedback is only one of like 10 reasons why Terran tier 3 units suck in TvP.
There's a reason Terrans are getting the battle hellion and the Warhound in HOTS. There's a reason Blizz is making an honest effort to make mech viable in TvP, and that reason is that in Wings of Liberty, Bio is all Terran has against Protoss in the late game.
That's just how it is. Protoss players that are trying to claim that Terrans at some point in this version of SC2 can stop relying on Bio units are delusional, I'm not trying to make a claim that TvP even favors Protoss at this point in time because I don't think it does, but all of this counter-argument of "use something other than MMMGV and you'll be ok" is just stupid.
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Can't go pure mech vs a toss like you can do vs zerg. Protoss can really just tear it apart hard with voidrays, immortals and zeals. The jjakji game mentioned above for example wasn't mech - it was marines, thors, banshee, raven and vikings. I'd also like to see that build used more (I think the first person I saw do this was thorzain in TSL?), but pure mech is just unplayable atm vs toss. Maybe in HotS with addition of battle helion and the warhound we'll see changes, but I doubt we'll see it in wings.
Regarding the OP, it's pretty wild how TvP matchup has varied so dramatically in little time. I don't think that the minor changes made recently can really be attributed to such a dramatic change in win rates, instead it's probably just an evolution in learning the match up.
Overall, I love this graph, thank you so much for putting the work into it ^_^
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I think terrans will bounce back in PvT, just patch and protoss favored maps both hit suddenly and here you go!
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EPT
