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On November 04 2014 04:53 keglu wrote:
Im confused reading this topic lately. Constamt T>Z discussion when based on winrates it's matchup closest to balanced and on top on that was above 50% for Zerg in 7/8 of last months. At the same time P looks really bad in both matchups lately and no one is talking about that. Confusing.
I don't see where this propagated PvZ weakness comes from. Protoss is and was the best represented race in WCS. The combined PvZ winrate last season (and also in all 3seasons combined) is greater than 50%.
Protoss has not struggled in a single Challenger or Premier League vs Zerg in the last season. Rather the other way around, Zerg has been crushed by Protoss in all Challenger Leagues recently, while all the Premier Leagues are within a very reasonable balance. Overall the matchup looks completely fine.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xd6kptX.jpg)
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On November 04 2014 05:12 Samx wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 04:53 keglu wrote:
Im confused reading this topic lately. Constamt T>Z discussion when based on winrates it's matchup closest to balanced and on top on that was above 50% for Zerg in 7/8 of last months. At the same time P looks really bad in both matchups lately and no one is talking about that. Confusing. The Protoss players will always figure something out. They always have, unlike terran players. From 3 gate robo, FFE, gateway expand, stargate pheonix etc for pvz. All have been considered standard meta for Protoss at one point or another. Likewise for pvt. Chargelot archon, blink into collosus, Templar openning. Protoss have always adapted.
Classic went fucking COLOSSUS DROPS this weekend.
Protoss has been innovating by far the most of any race.
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On November 04 2014 05:16 DinoMight wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:12 Samx wrote:On November 04 2014 04:53 keglu wrote:
Im confused reading this topic lately. Constamt T>Z discussion when based on winrates it's matchup closest to balanced and on top on that was above 50% for Zerg in 7/8 of last months. At the same time P looks really bad in both matchups lately and no one is talking about that. Confusing. The Protoss players will always figure something out. They always have, unlike terran players. From 3 gate robo, FFE, gateway expand, stargate pheonix etc for pvz. All have been considered standard meta for Protoss at one point or another. Likewise for pvt. Chargelot archon, blink into collosus, Templar openning. Protoss have always adapted. Classic went fucking COLOSSUS DROPS this weekend. Protoss has been innovating by far the most of any race.
It's only a matter of time until Protoss refine doom-drop warp-in combos. 
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On November 04 2014 05:12 DinoMight wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 04:50 TheDwf wrote:
By all means PM the few pros that sometimes post on TL - MorroW, Bunny, Snute, TLO, CatZ... - and ask them what they thought about the Nimbus game between TaeJa and soO and if the commonly played Zerg idea (Zerg, not mine) of a brood transition when ultras can't finish the job alone was unplayable there. Right, because soO needs to take advice from Morrow, Bunny, Snute, TLO, and CatZ. You forget that this guy is a 4x consecutive GSL finalist. Easily the best Zerg on earth. And he's currently sitting at 53% vs T since the patch. Meanwhile, in Terran la-la-land: Innovation: 71% Taeja: 65% MMA: 62% But okay, TvZ is fine. That idiot soO just needs to go Brood Lords and everything will be okay.
I'm not saying that you're wrong on the balance side or anything, but the fact that soO's arguably the best Zerg and has been for all year doesn't mean that no one is allowed to comment and analyze his decisions. soO has made, by Zerg standards, bad decisions in his games vs. TaeJa, including his army comp over the length of the game (however you can argue that the state of balance didn't allow him to make these decisions, but that's another thing). And someone like Snute or TLO or CatZ (or even like Downfall I'm fairly sure) is totally able to identify these, especially when watching the game once it has unfold.
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On November 04 2014 05:20 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:12 DinoMight wrote:On November 04 2014 04:50 TheDwf wrote:
By all means PM the few pros that sometimes post on TL - MorroW, Bunny, Snute, TLO, CatZ... - and ask them what they thought about the Nimbus game between TaeJa and soO and if the commonly played Zerg idea (Zerg, not mine) of a brood transition when ultras can't finish the job alone was unplayable there. Right, because soO needs to take advice from Morrow, Bunny, Snute, TLO, and CatZ. You forget that this guy is a 4x consecutive GSL finalist. Easily the best Zerg on earth. And he's currently sitting at 53% vs T since the patch. Meanwhile, in Terran la-la-land: Innovation: 71% Taeja: 65% MMA: 62% But okay, TvZ is fine. That idiot soO just needs to go Brood Lords and everything will be okay. I'm not saying that you're wrong on the balance side or anything, but the fact that soO's arguably the best Zerg and has been for all year doesn't mean that no one is allowed to comment and analyze his decisions. soO has made, by Zerg standards, bad decisions in his games vs. TaeJa, including his army comp over the length of the game (however you can argue that the state of balance didn't allow him to make these decisions, but that's another thing). And someone like Snute or TLO or CatZ (or even like Downfall I'm fairly sure) is totally able to identify these, especially when watching the game once it has unfold.
Yes and this is perfectly the same way that dwf & co. discussed terran disadvantages in SC2 about ~1 year ago, right?
I tell you the truth in one small example: Jaedong is considered as an inferior player that shouldn't even count for the statistics of high level play while flash was always counted as the very top terran and the benchmark for everything while he was totally not at all during these days.
This is the balance of argumentation in this thread. Heavily terran biased and it is being maintained by a handful or more guys that have personal interests in that it stays like this.
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On November 04 2014 05:14 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 04:53 keglu wrote:
Im confused reading this topic lately. Constamt T>Z discussion when based on winrates it's matchup closest to balanced and on top on that was above 50% for Zerg in 7/8 of last months. At the same time P looks really bad in both matchups lately and no one is talking about that. Confusing. I don't see where this propagated PvZ weakness comes from. Protoss is and was the best represented race in WCS. The combined PvZ winrate last season (and also in all 3seasons combined) is greater than 50%. Protoss has not struggled in a single Challenger or Premier League vs Zerg in the last season. Rather the other way around, Zerg has been crushed by Protoss in all Challenger Leagues recently, while all the Premier Leagues are within a very reasonable balance. Overall the matchup looks completely fine.
From
http://aligulac.com/reports/, last 2 months look really bad for P.
Im not watching a lot of sc2 lately just commenting available stats.
February was last time P was >= 50% in both matchups
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On November 04 2014 05:12 DinoMight wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 04:50 TheDwf wrote:
By all means PM the few pros that sometimes post on TL - MorroW, Bunny, Snute, TLO, CatZ... - and ask them what they thought about the Nimbus game between TaeJa and soO and if the commonly played Zerg idea (Zerg, not mine) of a brood transition when ultras can't finish the job alone was unplayable there. Right, because soO needs to take advice from Morrow, Bunny, Snute, TLO, and CatZ. You forget that this guy is a 4x consecutive GSL finalist. Easily the best Zerg on earth. And he's currently sitting at 53% vs T since the patch. Meanwhile, in Terran la-la-land: Innovation: 71% Taeja: 65% MMA: 62% But okay, TvZ is fine. That idiot soO just needs to go Brood Lords and everything will be okay.
Comparing Soo to "pure" Koreans would make better argument. Soo plays mainly againts Koreans, Teaja and MMA play in foreign scene, not sure about Inno now.
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your Country52798 Posts
On November 04 2014 05:30 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:12 DinoMight wrote:On November 04 2014 04:50 TheDwf wrote:
By all means PM the few pros that sometimes post on TL - MorroW, Bunny, Snute, TLO, CatZ... - and ask them what they thought about the Nimbus game between TaeJa and soO and if the commonly played Zerg idea (Zerg, not mine) of a brood transition when ultras can't finish the job alone was unplayable there. Right, because soO needs to take advice from Morrow, Bunny, Snute, TLO, and CatZ. You forget that this guy is a 4x consecutive GSL finalist. Easily the best Zerg on earth. And he's currently sitting at 53% vs T since the patch. Meanwhile, in Terran la-la-land: Innovation: 71% Taeja: 65% MMA: 62% But okay, TvZ is fine. That idiot soO just needs to go Brood Lords and everything will be okay. Comparing Soo to "pure" Koreans would make better argument. Soo plays mainly againts Koreans, Teaja and MMA play in foreign scene, not sure about Inno now.
soO's win rate against korean terrans is 50% in the last 3 months, losing to Flash (qualifier), Bbongjwa (qualifier), INnoVation (finals) and TaeJa. He beat opponents of similar skill.
TaeJa's TvZ record against koreans in that time is 58%, losing to Leenock, Action (qualifier?), and HyuN.
INnoVation's is 64%, losing to Leenock, Ragnarok, and Rogue. He beat opponents better than them, though.
MMA's is 42%, losing to Solar twice, HyuN, and Golden.
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On November 04 2014 05:27 keglu wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:14 Big J wrote:On November 04 2014 04:53 keglu wrote:
Im confused reading this topic lately. Constamt T>Z discussion when based on winrates it's matchup closest to balanced and on top on that was above 50% for Zerg in 7/8 of last months. At the same time P looks really bad in both matchups lately and no one is talking about that. Confusing. I don't see where this propagated PvZ weakness comes from. Protoss is and was the best represented race in WCS. The combined PvZ winrate last season (and also in all 3seasons combined) is greater than 50%. Protoss has not struggled in a single Challenger or Premier League vs Zerg in the last season. Rather the other way around, Zerg has been crushed by Protoss in all Challenger Leagues recently, while all the Premier Leagues are within a very reasonable balance. Overall the matchup looks completely fine. From http://aligulac.com/reports/, last 2 months look really bad for P. Im not watching a lot of sc2 lately just commenting available stats. February was last time P was >= 50% in both matchups
you see why I'm sceptical about aligulac stats, right?
Since February Protoss is <50% on aligulac, but in the same timeframe they have
- been the most represented race in all WCS regions
- the most successful race in all WCS regions
- mainly positive winrates in all WCS regions
So if all the tournaments we care about are fine, I don't see the point in discussing winrates from aligulac that mainly do not represent these tournaments.
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On November 04 2014 05:26 LSN wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:20 OtherWorld wrote:On November 04 2014 05:12 DinoMight wrote:On November 04 2014 04:50 TheDwf wrote:
By all means PM the few pros that sometimes post on TL - MorroW, Bunny, Snute, TLO, CatZ... - and ask them what they thought about the Nimbus game between TaeJa and soO and if the commonly played Zerg idea (Zerg, not mine) of a brood transition when ultras can't finish the job alone was unplayable there. Right, because soO needs to take advice from Morrow, Bunny, Snute, TLO, and CatZ. You forget that this guy is a 4x consecutive GSL finalist. Easily the best Zerg on earth. And he's currently sitting at 53% vs T since the patch. Meanwhile, in Terran la-la-land: Innovation: 71% Taeja: 65% MMA: 62% But okay, TvZ is fine. That idiot soO just needs to go Brood Lords and everything will be okay. I'm not saying that you're wrong on the balance side or anything, but the fact that soO's arguably the best Zerg and has been for all year doesn't mean that no one is allowed to comment and analyze his decisions. soO has made, by Zerg standards, bad decisions in his games vs. TaeJa, including his army comp over the length of the game (however you can argue that the state of balance didn't allow him to make these decisions, but that's another thing). And someone like Snute or TLO or CatZ (or even like Downfall I'm fairly sure) is totally able to identify these, especially when watching the game once it has unfold. Yes and this is perfectly the same way that dwf & co. discussed terran disadvantages in SC2 about ~1 year ago, right? I tell you the truth in one small example: Jaedong is considered as an inferior player that shouldn't even count for the statistics of high level play while flash was always counted as the very top terran and the benchmark for everything while he was totally not at all during these days. This is the balance of argumentation in this thread. Heavily terran biased and it is being maintained by a handful or more guys that have personal interests in that it stays like this.
I don't want to discuss balance or anything. However, Flash had indeed one of the best ZvT pre-mine nerf. But yes this thread in itself is a joke and is useless since every non-Zerg sees BLfestor each time a Zerg wins something, every non-P sees Blink madness and GomExPvP and every non-T sees 1-1-1 and GomTvT.
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Protoss have the "healthy benefit" of being tech dependant and thus displaying a wide range of options and compositions if they don't get too much damage. Void Rays and Carriers are the only things that are somewhat underused because of the obvious counters they have in PvZ and PvT. With some armor on them, pretty much all the arsenal would be displayed, for sure. Tempests are purely situational.
Protoss has more flexibility than the other races because they depend in adaptable compositions as they don't have all-around units and rely on different units filling different roles or different abilities most of the times.
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On November 04 2014 05:20 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:12 DinoMight wrote:On November 04 2014 04:50 TheDwf wrote:
By all means PM the few pros that sometimes post on TL - MorroW, Bunny, Snute, TLO, CatZ... - and ask them what they thought about the Nimbus game between TaeJa and soO and if the commonly played Zerg idea (Zerg, not mine) of a brood transition when ultras can't finish the job alone was unplayable there. Right, because soO needs to take advice from Morrow, Bunny, Snute, TLO, and CatZ. You forget that this guy is a 4x consecutive GSL finalist. Easily the best Zerg on earth. And he's currently sitting at 53% vs T since the patch. Meanwhile, in Terran la-la-land: Innovation: 71% Taeja: 65% MMA: 62% But okay, TvZ is fine. That idiot soO just needs to go Brood Lords and everything will be okay. I'm not saying that you're wrong on the balance side or anything, but the fact that soO's arguably the best Zerg and has been for all year doesn't mean that no one is allowed to comment and analyze his decisions. soO has made, by Zerg standards, bad decisions in his games vs. TaeJa, including his army comp over the length of the game (however you can argue that the state of balance didn't allow him to make these decisions, but that's another thing). And someone like Snute or TLO or CatZ (or even like Downfall I'm fairly sure) is totally able to identify these, especially when watching the game once it has unfold.
That's precisely the problem. After the game is over, any idiot can watch it and point out all the mistakes that soO made. But the observer has perfect information. SoO does not.
Taeja did TWICE scan the Spire. Maybe soO noticed this and thought Taeja was anticipating a BL switch and therefore stuck it out on Ultras hoping to meta-game a little. If Taeja had added on a Viking fleet and Ravens and soO faked him out and stayed on Ultras and won, we'd all be praising his brilliance and there would be a main page TL article written about it... hindsight is like that....
Why does Zerg lose to Terran? 1) droning too much 2) not droning enough 3) bad engagements 4) bad reads on tech.
Well, if we use the TheDwf method of ZvT where every Zerg magically knows how much to drone and what tech their opponent is going, then yes, every single game that Zerg loses is the player's fault and there is no balance issue.
But when you factor in the myriad of builds that Terran has at their disposal ranging from extreme greed to Hellbat allin and the vastly different responses required from Zerg, that becomes a lot more difficult. Now take into account how hard it is to also execute everything correctly AND not only tech correctly but accurately predict if your opponent is responding to your tech correctly.
Pros make mistakes. This has always been part of the game - this game is very difficult.. more so than any of us amateurs can understand. And right now it seems to be a little bit more difficult for Zerg than it is for Terran.
Hindsight is 20:20. I'm sure TheDwf can give us (because he has) a million resons why every Zerg lost every ZvT played. But you can't just collectively say everyone playing the Zerg race is a dunce and needs to learn to play better. At the top level of this game, Terrans are overwhelmingly beating Zergs in tournament results.
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On November 04 2014 05:41 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:27 keglu wrote:On November 04 2014 05:14 Big J wrote:On November 04 2014 04:53 keglu wrote:
Im confused reading this topic lately. Constamt T>Z discussion when based on winrates it's matchup closest to balanced and on top on that was above 50% for Zerg in 7/8 of last months. At the same time P looks really bad in both matchups lately and no one is talking about that. Confusing. I don't see where this propagated PvZ weakness comes from. Protoss is and was the best represented race in WCS. The combined PvZ winrate last season (and also in all 3seasons combined) is greater than 50%. Protoss has not struggled in a single Challenger or Premier League vs Zerg in the last season. Rather the other way around, Zerg has been crushed by Protoss in all Challenger Leagues recently, while all the Premier Leagues are within a very reasonable balance. Overall the matchup looks completely fine. From http://aligulac.com/reports/, last 2 months look really bad for P. Im not watching a lot of sc2 lately just commenting available stats. February was last time P was >= 50% in both matchups you see why I'm sceptical about aligulac stats, right? Since February Protoss is <50% on aligulac, but in the same timeframe they have - been the most represented race in all WCS regions - the most successful race in all WCS regions - mainly positive winrates in all WCS regions So if all the tournaments we care about are fine, I don't see the point in discussing winrates from aligulac that mainly do not represent these tournaments.
Not in the mood to dig into that data, but just few looks on winrates, premier and major tournaments 1st and 2nd places and for me since June (6th month now) P is least successful race by far. Also in foreign scene Protoss is like new Terran, I cannot think of single one impressive non Korean Protoss.
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To preface this, I think TvZ is slightly T favored, and have said this several times in this thread. Writing this before results.
I made a quick compilation of TvZ winrates from both sides. Included all WCS Global Finals participants + Solar and Sacsri (as the most recent Zerg Premiere Tournament Winners) to even out the numbers. Filtered by post patch, and both vs South Korean only and vs All.
Zerg
soO vs South Koreans 50.00%
soO vs All 50.00% (no extra games)
Life vs South Koreans 48.57%
Life vs All 48.57% (no extra games)
Solar vs South Koreans 57.95%
Solar vs All 62.50%
Jaedong vs South Koreans 52.00%
Jaedong vs All 52.00% (no extra games)
Sacsri vs South Koreans 60.71%
Sacsri vs All 73.44%
Hyun vs South Koreans 46.67%
Hyun vs All 57.75%
Terran
Taeja vs South Koreans 57.89%
Taeja vs All 65.52%
jjakji vs South Koreans 42.86%
jjakji vs All 69.49%
INnoVation vs South Koreans 63.64%
INnoVation vs All 67.67%
MMA vs South Koreans 41.94%
MMA vs All 63.77%
Polt vs South Koreans 60.00%
Polt vs All 68.75%
Bomber vs South Koreans 61.11%
Bomber vs All 56.52% (no, I didn't get these mixed up)
My Opinion on Results-
Terran winrates definitely seem more padded than Zerg winrates, and overall winrates are much closer than I expected. Both have two under 50% vs South Koreans (Life, Hyun, MMA, jjakji), but both Terrans are over 60% when you include wins vs foreign Zerg. Innovation is definitely a beast, the only player over 65% vs South Koreans on the entire list, it makes me feel like I've been underrating him. Polt surprisingly good too, never really thought of him as a powerhouse in TvZ.
Overall from quality of games I still feel like T is slightly favored, but looking at the stats I don't see anything to show it. Terran seems to be winning more critical / televised matches, a lot of Z wins I never watched. We definitely need more top Z representation in international tournaments, I'm surprised to see Life and Jaedong with no games vs foreign Terrans.
also- wtf why dont I see Sacsri play more? I need to follow EU more closely. Always thought his win was just a fluke. Also lol @ Bomber doing worse vs Foreigners than vs South Koreans.
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On November 04 2014 05:02 LSN wrote:
Apart from the thesis that you might be right in theory that in this specific game somehow magic broodlords might have helped and taeja would not have at all reacted to it (you even noted that he must have scanned for it several times), could there still be a little thing not perfectly in balance and in favour of terran when looking at the recent korean TvZ results and taking into account that terrans got several buffs more than only the reversal of the widow mine nerf - and you yourself considered TvZ as balanced before the widow mines got nerfed and all the other buffs for terran happened?
I never said anything like that so please stop putting words in my mouth. And as I have said multiple times, a) buffs don't stack linearly and b) the two respective races didn't start the race at the same place to begin with and don't necessarily have the same perspectives for improvement on the long term (a concept that you acknowledge yourself since you wrote several times that things could become worse for Zerg - I merely think the reverse).
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On November 04 2014 06:31 Pursuit_ wrote:
Also lol @ Bomber doing worse vs Foreigners than vs South Koreans.
Bomber will be Bomber. This is why we <3 Bomber - he doesn't make sense. He is just awesome.
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On November 04 2014 06:38 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 05:02 LSN wrote:
Apart from the thesis that you might be right in theory that in this specific game somehow magic broodlords might have helped and taeja would not have at all reacted to it (you even noted that he must have scanned for it several times), could there still be a little thing not perfectly in balance and in favour of terran when looking at the recent korean TvZ results and taking into account that terrans got several buffs more than only the reversal of the widow mine nerf - and you yourself considered TvZ as balanced before the widow mines got nerfed and all the other buffs for terran happened? I never said anything like that so please stop putting words in my mouth. And as I have said multiple times, a) buffs don't stack linearly and b) the two respective races didn't start the race at the same place to begin with and don't necessarily have the same perspectives for improvement on the long term (a concept that you acknowledge yourself since you wrote several times that things could become worse for Zerg - I merely think the reverse).
About the buffs. I would argue that widow mine and thor buffs do stack quite nicely. They are both anti-muta buffs and mines are also better against ling/bling overall now. When you add on more powerfull hellbats i think it goes along with those buffs nicely. Hellbats force zerg´s to take precautions acainst possible pressure/all-in and this allows terran to play super greedy or simply execute really strong attacks with hellbats. As TvZ easily snowballs it is really important for the zerg to get to the mid game in good position (eco,creep etc)
In summary i would argue that the most crucial upgrades do stack against zerg.
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On November 04 2014 06:56 RaFox17 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2014 06:38 TheDwf wrote:On November 04 2014 05:02 LSN wrote:
Apart from the thesis that you might be right in theory that in this specific game somehow magic broodlords might have helped and taeja would not have at all reacted to it (you even noted that he must have scanned for it several times), could there still be a little thing not perfectly in balance and in favour of terran when looking at the recent korean TvZ results and taking into account that terrans got several buffs more than only the reversal of the widow mine nerf - and you yourself considered TvZ as balanced before the widow mines got nerfed and all the other buffs for terran happened? I never said anything like that so please stop putting words in my mouth. And as I have said multiple times, a) buffs don't stack linearly and b) the two respective races didn't start the race at the same place to begin with and don't necessarily have the same perspectives for improvement on the long term (a concept that you acknowledge yourself since you wrote several times that things could become worse for Zerg - I merely think the reverse). About the buffs. I would argue that widow mine and thor buffs do stack quite nicely. They are both anti-muta buffs and mines are also better against ling/bling overall now. When you add on more powerfull hellbats i think it goes along with those buffs nicely. Hellbats force zerg´s to take precautions acainst possible pressure/all-in and this allows terran to play super greedy or simply execute really strong attacks with hellbats. As TvZ easily snowballs it is really important for the zerg to get to the mid game in good position (eco,creep etc) In summary i would argue that the most crucial upgrades do stack against zerg.
This is not what I meant with "buffs don't stack linearly," but of course the 3 changes do have effects together, and Hellbat timings do have an impact on Zerg's standard builds even when they're not actually played.
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Just saw Taeja v SoO.
I'd haven't read up on this thread, but I assume there is hefty discussion over this series and how Taeja in the lategame managed to expertly abuse the fact Zerg seemingly has NO way of breaking a highground turtling Terran.
Anybody who can TL;DR the discussion of the last couple of pages for me?
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EPT
