|
United States12224 Posts
On August 03 2011 09:34 Qibla wrote:
How many games does it take to change your MMR? Or perhaps a better question is how many games does battle.net sample from to attain your MMR?
Say I play 250 games with a 50% win ration. I then go on a 20 game win streak. Does it then say you have a 53% win ratio based of 270 games, or does it say, you have a 75% win ratio based off the last 40 games?
You're basically asking what the interval for the moving average is, and in short, we don't know. It would be the latter, but to what degree we aren't sure. It also doesn't care what your win ratio is, it's your MMR that matters.
Let's use completely hypothetical numbers to create an example. Let's say that the moving average has an interval of 5 games and that it's a simple moving average (these alone are huge assumptions). Let's also say that over those 5 games your MMR started at 2500 and changed to 2550, 2520, 2590, 2630. The simple moving average over those 5 games would be 2558. If you played another game and your MMR changed to 2690, the simple moving average over the most recent 5 games would be (2550+2520+2590+2630+2690)/5, or 2596. Your original starting point of 2500 is never forgotten because without it you wouldn't be 2550 or 2520 or 2590 etc., but for promotion purposes it doesn't matter because it's your moving average (and crossing the confidence buffer) that matters. Note that win ratio isn't factored in at all, instead your high MMR is a result of your high win ratio simply because you gain MMR when you win and lose it when you lose.
|
I see. Thanks for the explanation :D
|
edit: math checks out, guess I haven't paid attention to ladder analysis since promotion day (and since I stopped 1v1). bonus pool for diamond at my promotion time was 61, master at 106.... 57.5% math checks out! thanks for the info man
haven't seen you on AIM, but thought I'd mention this.
I just started laddering on SEA again, got promoted with 0 bonus pool (50-29), then it showed I have 45 bonus pool left.
Total bonus pool at time of my promotion is 106.
My point total is 134.
I was trading evenly with 200pt masters, and consistently playing (~50%, because ladder pretty inactive) top 200 players (2-2).
I'm not sure what all this means, but I can say it seems different than before, because I don't see how 73+spent bonus pool adds up here.
link here http://sea.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/85269/1/Michael/ladder/6732#current-rank
|
United States12224 Posts
On August 03 2011 12:44 michaelhasanalias wrote:edit: math checks out, guess I haven't paid attention to ladder analysis since promotion day (and since I stopped 1v1). bonus pool for diamond at my promotion time was 61, master at 106.... 57.5% math checks out! thanks for the info man haven't seen you on AIM, but thought I'd mention this. I just started laddering on SEA again, got promoted with 0 bonus pool (50-29), then it showed I have 45 bonus pool left. Total bonus pool at time of my promotion is 106. My point total is 134. I was trading evenly with 200pt masters, and consistently playing (~50%, because ladder pretty inactive) top 200 players (2-2). I'm not sure what all this means, but I can say it seems different than before, because I don't see how 73+spent bonus pool adds up here. link here http://sea.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/85269/1/Michael/ladder/6732#current-rank
Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league.
|
On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 12:44 michaelhasanalias wrote:edit: math checks out, guess I haven't paid attention to ladder analysis since promotion day (and since I stopped 1v1). bonus pool for diamond at my promotion time was 61, master at 106.... 57.5% math checks out! thanks for the info man haven't seen you on AIM, but thought I'd mention this. I just started laddering on SEA again, got promoted with 0 bonus pool (50-29), then it showed I have 45 bonus pool left. Total bonus pool at time of my promotion is 106. My point total is 134. I was trading evenly with 200pt masters, and consistently playing (~50%, because ladder pretty inactive) top 200 players (2-2). I'm not sure what all this means, but I can say it seems different than before, because I don't see how 73+spent bonus pool adds up here. link here http://sea.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/85269/1/Michael/ladder/6732#current-rank Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league.
This sounds painful if/when I hit masters later this season. 
|
I just remembered another reason for the master league having more bonus points.
After you hit master, there is no more divisions or leagues, so you see people with 100 AP, 300AP, 700AP etc.
that difference, though, won't show up unless you play some games. If a 700AP worth player doesn't play, he will appear as 0 AP. So, with these extra bonus pool, they will be forced to play more and then their points will be more on par with their "MMR". That said, they actually need to play more than the other leagues indeed (unless low masters).
Just one more reason. Cya!
|
On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league.
I want to see what happens when you get demoted from masters without any bonus pool left. The only reasonably way I can see to handle it is to take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0. This would be the first time your spent bonus could change. That has never happened on the ladder before.
And what happens if you have some bonus left? Will it let you keep them, or will it use those for payback too? I think the system will have to take your remaining bonus first, and if that isn't enough, take the remaining debt from your spent bonus. If it didn't, you could lose all your spent bonus by jumping repeatedly between masters and diamond. That would be annoying. :-)
|
United States12224 Posts
On August 03 2011 14:59 Mendelfist wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league. I want to see what happens when you get demoted from masters without any bonus pool left. The only reasonably way I can see to handle it is to take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0. This would be the first time your spent bonus could change. That has never happened on the ladder before. And what happens if you have some bonus left? Will it let you keep them, or will it use those for payback too? I think the system will have to take your remaining bonus first, and if that isn't enough, take the remaining debt from your spent bonus. If it didn't, you could lose all your spent bonus by jumping repeatedly between masters and diamond. That would be annoying. :-)
It's simply got to do the opposite, I can't see how it would work any other way. Let's say you have 52 spent bonus in Diamond, which equates to 90 total bonus pool in Master. You get promoted, your points change to 73+52 with 38 bonus pool unspent. If you then spend all of that, and get demoted with 90 spent bonus pool back to Diamond, you would have 73+52 again with 0 unspent bonus pool. Then if you were to get promoted back to Master again, you would have 73+52 with 38 unspent bonus pool again. Any amount of spent bonus pool that exceeds the destination league's maximum probably just gets discarded.
If this is really how it works, it would certainly be pretty annoying for the guy who straddles Master and Diamond league and bounces between the two, especially if it were to happen late in the season when the difference between the max bonus pool for Diamond and Master gets very large. Fortunately, bouncing back and forth between Diamond and Master is uncommon.
|
On August 03 2011 15:09 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 14:59 Mendelfist wrote:On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league. I want to see what happens when you get demoted from masters without any bonus pool left. The only reasonably way I can see to handle it is to take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0. This would be the first time your spent bonus could change. That has never happened on the ladder before. And what happens if you have some bonus left? Will it let you keep them, or will it use those for payback too? I think the system will have to take your remaining bonus first, and if that isn't enough, take the remaining debt from your spent bonus. If it didn't, you could lose all your spent bonus by jumping repeatedly between masters and diamond. That would be annoying. :-) It's simply got to do the opposite, I can't see how it would work any other way. Let's say you have 52 spent bonus in Diamond, which equates to 90 total bonus pool in Master. You get promoted, your points change to 73+52 with 38 bonus pool unspent. If you then spend all of that, and get demoted with 90 spent bonus pool back to Diamond, you would have 73+52 again with 0 unspent bonus pool. Then if you were to get promoted back to Master again, you would have 73+52 with 38 unspent bonus pool again. Any amount of spent bonus pool that exceeds the destination league's maximum probably just gets discarded. If this is really how it works, it would certainly be pretty annoying for the guy who straddles Master and Diamond league and bounces between the two, especially if it were to happen late in the season when the difference between the max bonus pool for Diamond and Master gets very large. Fortunately, bouncing back and forth between Diamond and Master is uncommon.
Blizzard could track how much of "master league bonus pool" that was already spent, and that shouldn't be too hard to implement.
|
United States12224 Posts
On August 03 2011 15:42 Azzur wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 15:09 Excalibur_Z wrote:On August 03 2011 14:59 Mendelfist wrote:On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league. I want to see what happens when you get demoted from masters without any bonus pool left. The only reasonably way I can see to handle it is to take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0. This would be the first time your spent bonus could change. That has never happened on the ladder before. And what happens if you have some bonus left? Will it let you keep them, or will it use those for payback too? I think the system will have to take your remaining bonus first, and if that isn't enough, take the remaining debt from your spent bonus. If it didn't, you could lose all your spent bonus by jumping repeatedly between masters and diamond. That would be annoying. :-) It's simply got to do the opposite, I can't see how it would work any other way. Let's say you have 52 spent bonus in Diamond, which equates to 90 total bonus pool in Master. You get promoted, your points change to 73+52 with 38 bonus pool unspent. If you then spend all of that, and get demoted with 90 spent bonus pool back to Diamond, you would have 73+52 again with 0 unspent bonus pool. Then if you were to get promoted back to Master again, you would have 73+52 with 38 unspent bonus pool again. Any amount of spent bonus pool that exceeds the destination league's maximum probably just gets discarded. If this is really how it works, it would certainly be pretty annoying for the guy who straddles Master and Diamond league and bounces between the two, especially if it were to happen late in the season when the difference between the max bonus pool for Diamond and Master gets very large. Fortunately, bouncing back and forth between Diamond and Master is uncommon. Blizzard could track how much of "master league bonus pool" that was already spent, and that shouldn't be too hard to implement.
I think the probability of that is low, because it's something additional to track per user and the system doesn't see very forward-thinking in that respect =) Only one way to find out though!
|
On August 03 2011 15:09 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 14:59 Mendelfist wrote:On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league. I want to see what happens when you get demoted from masters without any bonus pool left. The only reasonably way I can see to handle it is to take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0. This would be the first time your spent bonus could change. That has never happened on the ladder before. And what happens if you have some bonus left? Will it let you keep them, or will it use those for payback too? I think the system will have to take your remaining bonus first, and if that isn't enough, take the remaining debt from your spent bonus. If it didn't, you could lose all your spent bonus by jumping repeatedly between masters and diamond. That would be annoying. :-) It's simply got to do the opposite, I can't see how it would work any other way. Let's say you have 52 spent bonus in Diamond, which equates to 90 total bonus pool in Master. You get promoted, your points change to 73+52 with 38 bonus pool unspent. If you then spend all of that, and get demoted with 90 spent bonus pool back to Diamond, you would have 73+52 again with 0 unspent bonus pool. Then if you were to get promoted back to Master again, you would have 73+52 with 38 unspent bonus pool again. Any amount of spent bonus pool that exceeds the destination league's maximum probably just gets discarded.
Hm, I'm not sure I'm following you. The opposite of what? In the rest of your post you sound like you are agreeing with me. "take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0" means it gets discarded, yes.
And do you agree that if you get demoted with remaining bonus > 0 it will have to take that away first, before discarding any of your spent bonus? Eg you have 180 points (90 adjusted and 90 spent bonus) and 10 remaining bonus. After demotion to diamond you will have 0 remaining bonus and 90-28=62 spent bonus, that is a total of 73+62=135 points.
|
United States12224 Posts
On August 03 2011 15:56 Mendelfist wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 15:09 Excalibur_Z wrote:On August 03 2011 14:59 Mendelfist wrote:On August 03 2011 12:53 Excalibur_Z wrote:Yeah we were discussing this recently in another thread (and about a page or two ago in this thread too). The bonus pool accrual rate was reduced for leagues below Master. Then when you get promoted to Master you gain access to any bonus pool that you've missed out on by being in a lower league. I want to see what happens when you get demoted from masters without any bonus pool left. The only reasonably way I can see to handle it is to take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0. This would be the first time your spent bonus could change. That has never happened on the ladder before. And what happens if you have some bonus left? Will it let you keep them, or will it use those for payback too? I think the system will have to take your remaining bonus first, and if that isn't enough, take the remaining debt from your spent bonus. If it didn't, you could lose all your spent bonus by jumping repeatedly between masters and diamond. That would be annoying. :-) It's simply got to do the opposite, I can't see how it would work any other way. Let's say you have 52 spent bonus in Diamond, which equates to 90 total bonus pool in Master. You get promoted, your points change to 73+52 with 38 bonus pool unspent. If you then spend all of that, and get demoted with 90 spent bonus pool back to Diamond, you would have 73+52 again with 0 unspent bonus pool. Then if you were to get promoted back to Master again, you would have 73+52 with 38 unspent bonus pool again. Any amount of spent bonus pool that exceeds the destination league's maximum probably just gets discarded. Hm, I'm not sure I'm following you. The opposite of what? In the rest of your post you sound like you are agreeing with me. "take back enough spent bonus points so that your remaining bonus still ends up 0" means it gets discarded, yes. And do you agree that if you get demoted with remaining bonus > 0 it will have to take that away first, before discarding any of your spent bonus? Eg you have 180 points (90 adjusted and 90 spent bonus) and 10 remaining bonus. After demotion to diamond you will have 0 remaining bonus and 90-28=62 spent bonus, that is a total of 73+62=135 points.
By "opposite" I meant removing spent bonus pool rather than providing additional unspent bonus pool. Although now that I think about it, that's not exactly the opposite. As for your example about what's to be done with unspent bonus pool, that's a good question indeed. I gotta figure that it won't allow any inflation beyond what you're normally allowed in that league, so you would have to calculate what the total amount of provided bonus is for Master (90 spent + 10 unspent = 100) then * 0.58 = 58, so you would have 73 + 58 = 131 because 90 (Master spent) > 58 (league max).
EDIT: Actually thought about it a little more, and it would have to correct for the total amount provided.
|
On August 03 2011 16:17 Excalibur_Z wrote:By "opposite" I meant removing spent bonus pool rather than providing additional unspent bonus pool.
Ok, we agree on that part then.
As for your example about what's to be done with unspent bonus pool, that's a good question indeed. I gotta figure that it won't allow any inflation beyond what you're normally allowed in that league, so you would have to calculate what the total amount of provided bonus is for Master (90 spent + 10 unspent = 100) then * 0.58 = 58, so you would have 73 + 58 = 131 because 90 (Master spent) > 58 (league max).
EDIT: Actually thought about it a little more, and it would have to correct for the total amount provided.
Yes you are right, and my example was wrong. Spent bonus has to be adjusted so that the total available bonus is correct for that league. It has to be 131 total points (and 0 remaining bonus). Well, it will be interesting to see what really happens.
|
Has anyone noticed my concern?
If last season 1,5k high dia player was equal to 1,2k master, this season 900 pts high dia player will be equal to 1,2k master... isnt this really weird? As season is going to progress, visible difference beween D & M is going to increase, which will be really confusing.
IMO they shouldnt have done this or should have keep original BP for D-GM cause in my experiences D players are usually active just like masters or simply inactive. This majority of inactive players or partially active players are more common in like G and bellow, perhaps in P.
|
On August 03 2011 17:22 Sek-Kuar wrote:
Has anyone noticed my concern?
If last season 1,5k high dia player was equal to 1,2k master, this season 900 pts high dia player will be equal to 1,2k master... isnt this really weird? As season is going to progress, visible difference beween D & M is going to increase, which will be really confusing.
Even last season you couldn't do such a simple comparison. Diamond has 7 tiers, and there is no easy way to tell which tier any given player is in. So you couldn't just subtract 300 pts from any random diamond player and say that would be their points in masters last season, and you still can't do that now.
|
Actually if you're in Diamond and play dozens of games, figuring out your division tier with a small margin of error is fairly straightforward. You simply get a sense for the range of how many unadjusted points above & below you opponents in Diamond can be and you still win/lose roughly 12 points. If you're high Diamond and face the occasional Master, it's even easier. Since this might be a new concept to some I'll elaborate a bit:
Suppose you're a 500 points diamond player and you want to know your division tier. You play a few dozen games. In some of them the system matches you against an opponent who is fairly higher / lower in skill than you, so you win/lose <10 points or >14 points. Feel free to disregard these games since there are too many yet unknown variables involved. Out of the games you won/lost between 10 and 14 points for, check your opponent record. If he has few games played and/or is winning a lot of points and losing few for his games, disregard your game with him because it is clearly someone who's points are not representative of his MMR with the system.
Now you have a bunch of games left vs opponents whose points are fairly constant, and you won/lost around 10-14 points against them. For opponents in Diamond league, check how much are they above or below you in unadjusted points. After sufficient sample size of games you will get a range that is roughly the same size as the difference between tier S diamond division and tier F Diamond division, or roughly 378 points. Now all you have to do is see where you fall in that range, and violla, you've figured out your division tier within a small margin of error (maybe you overshoot or undershoot by 1 tier, can be minimized with bigger sample size).
IF you're high Diamond and are facing Master players, your job is much easier. Simply find a match against a Master player where you won / lost 12 points, make sure that the Master player is winning / losing roughly 12 points for his games (indicates that his points have fairly settled around his MMR), and check the unadjusted points difference between you and him. This alone should give you a pretty good idea of your diamond division tier. Do it for a few games against Masters and you're set.
Now that that is out of the way, back to my point...
Not only will it be more complicated comparing your points in Diamond with the points of Master after this change, but as the season progresses there will be the points shift Sek-Kuar talked about. As if it wasn't confusing enough reading an old post where someone states their points, and you are trying to figure out the current date equivalent in points because the points keep increasing due to bonus pool. Now you are going to have to separate the case between Diamond and below, and Master and above. For example if you are 200 points Diamond and someone is 200 points Master, you get a general sense of how much higher he is than you. But wait 2 months, and suddenly you are 600 points Diamond and someone who is 600 points Master isn't quite as much ahead of you as the 200 Master guy was when you were 200 Diamond. In fact, suddenly the 600 points Master might in fact be behind you in actual points.
See where this is going?
|
I'm a bit confused by the way my pool just acted.
Before the match, I had 8 points in my bonus pool. I won an evenly matched game and it awarded 13 points for the win, plus a single bonus point.... for a grand total of 14 points and leaving 7 points remaining in my pool. I thought it was supposed to use the whole total?
|
United States12224 Posts
On August 05 2011 06:10 Cubbieblue66 wrote:
I'm a bit confused by the way my pool just acted.
Before the match, I had 8 points in my bonus pool. I won an evenly matched game and it awarded 13 points for the win, plus a single bonus point.... for a grand total of 14 points and leaving 7 points remaining in my pool. I thought it was supposed to use the whole total?
In what game type? Arranged or random? What league? Someone yesterday reported that he had 8 bonus pool that wasn't going away, so maybe this is a recent display bug.
|
Standard 1v1 laddering. Platinum League, for what it's worth. If you'd like to take a look at my profile, you can find it here.
It just happened again. In the postgame it says even match and +12 point, with a +1 bonus... and I still have 7 points left in my pool (having had 8 before the match).
I hope it's just a display bug. Because if I'm not getting all my ladder points I deserve (and as a middling player, badly need) I'm gonna be a sad panda.
|
United States12224 Posts
On August 05 2011 07:11 Cubbieblue66 wrote:Standard 1v1 laddering. Platinum League, for what it's worth. If you'd like to take a look at my profile, you can find it here.It just happened again. In the postgame it says even match and +12 point, with a +1 bonus... and I still have 7 points left in my pool (having had 8 before the match). I hope it's just a display bug. Because if I'm not getting all my ladder points I deserve (and as a middling player, badly need) I'm gonna be a sad panda.
Is your system clock correct? You wouldn't happen to be one day in the future, would you? =)
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
