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United States12252 Posts
On July 26 2011 13:24 KimJongChill wrote:
Hi. I am high diamond, and if I am even matched against master league opponents when I run into them on ladder, does that mean I should get placed into master league for season 3? I'm curious as to how much the matchmaking system can reflect league placement.
Initial league placement, such as between seasons, probably doesn't obey the "confidence buffer" requirement of typical league changes (this is what we mean when we say "leagues are sticky"). It seems to be pretty common for players to be placed in a different league at the start of the next season. "Even match" refers to how many points you stand to earn and is not enough information in and of itself to conclude whether your MMR is on equal footing with your opponents. The only way to get a really good estimate is to find that out is by a large volume of opponents and their match histories.
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On July 26 2011 13:34 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2011 13:24 KimJongChill wrote:
Hi. I am high diamond, and if I am even matched against master league opponents when I run into them on ladder, does that mean I should get placed into master league for season 3? I'm curious as to how much the matchmaking system can reflect league placement. Initial league placement, such as between seasons, probably doesn't obey the "confidence buffer" requirement of typical league changes (this is what we mean when we say "leagues are sticky"). It seems to be pretty common for players to be placed in a different league at the start of the next season. "Even match" refers to how many points you stand to earn and is not enough information in and of itself to conclude whether your MMR is on equal footing with your opponents. The only way to get a really good estimate is to find that out is by a large volume of opponents and their match histories.
Man, we should have set up some accounts to test this theory. Although, it's all but confirmed anyways.
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double edit: nvm
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jSsRb.png)
On July 27 2011 13:15 Torte de Lini wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2011 13:05 Munk-E wrote:On July 27 2011 11:04 Torte de Lini wrote:
10:00 once again, Season 3 is out and I lost about 132 games to reach the magical bronze level. Why? 1. Because I enjoy the feeling of progression, even if my own skill is not progressing.
2. I am very rusty and haven't played in awhile. I am obviously not as unrefined as bronze, but this leads me to my third point.
3. My army and unit control is horrendous, while my macro is decent at at least platinum, my army/unit control has lost me many games because of poor control, crisis management and understanding of my own units.
So onward we go. I will reach at least high-diamond by sometime in the future. For now, I intend to play all games to the later stages to fully develop large unit forces and diverse ones at that.
I did have the intention of learning a new race such as Protoss or Terran, but I wouldn't know where to begin and it would seem like a very difficult task.
I was browsing reddit, and by any chance, did you lose 0.0000000000000009992 points during this quest? Yep, it's happened before with -e0.3 I got a screenshot of it from last season.
apparently while going on a 132 losing streak torte lost a very small amount of points, pretty interesting.
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After the start of S3, there is a guy in my (platinum) division with 3 wins and 99 points.
How is that possible? The bonus pool was only 2 at the time, so he must have 97 non-bonus points, what is 32 points per match. but the guide says, that you can gain 24 points max per win.
Any thoughts on that?
nvm, I am stupid, am I not? I looked up his match history. He got 24 points from 3 matches (2:1) he played this season, nothing special. but that menas that he started the season with 75 points. It looks suspiciously like 73 from league promotion and yes, he was gold last season.
But, in 2v2, we got plat->diamond via the placement match and got 0 points. So he was probably promoted not on his placement match, but on his very second match.
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What a wonderful thread. Absolutely astonishing work and brilliant explanations... a must read for the confused ladderers!
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On July 27 2011 20:17 TheAwesomeAll wrote:double edit: nvm Show nested quote +On July 27 2011 13:15 Torte de Lini wrote:On July 27 2011 13:05 Munk-E wrote:On July 27 2011 11:04 Torte de Lini wrote:
10:00 once again, Season 3 is out and I lost about 132 games to reach the magical bronze level. Why? 1. Because I enjoy the feeling of progression, even if my own skill is not progressing.
2. I am very rusty and haven't played in awhile. I am obviously not as unrefined as bronze, but this leads me to my third point.
3. My army and unit control is horrendous, while my macro is decent at at least platinum, my army/unit control has lost me many games because of poor control, crisis management and understanding of my own units.
So onward we go. I will reach at least high-diamond by sometime in the future. For now, I intend to play all games to the later stages to fully develop large unit forces and diverse ones at that.
I did have the intention of learning a new race such as Protoss or Terran, but I wouldn't know where to begin and it would seem like a very difficult task.
I was browsing reddit, and by any chance, did you lose 0.0000000000000009992 points during this quest? Yep, it's happened before with -e0.3 I got a screenshot of it from last season. apparently while going on a 132 losing streak torte lost a very small amount of points, pretty interesting.
All it shows is that Blizzard is using floating point numbers to display results. They probably have some sort of rounding checks to make sure this doesn't happen, but some get through.
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i am master league in NA, however i just started playing on kr server and placed in plat. why are the silver players i played in placements as good as masters i've played in na? /facepalm
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Here is something to ponder upon. My complete match history for season 2 is here:
www.lysator.liu.se/~john/oldhistory.html
When season 2 ended I had 121 adjusted points in platinum (AP column). When season 3 started I was placed in gold. Unless the league offsets were changed again just now I have a hard time understanding this. Looking at my opponents league though it's more understandable, but 121 should be well within platinum. There is something going on here.
Note: This is not a complaint. I like trying to figure out how the ladder works.
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United States12252 Posts
On July 29 2011 04:57 Mendelfist wrote:Here is something to ponder upon. My complete match history for season 2 is here: www.lysator.liu.se/~john/oldhistory.htmlWhen season 2 ended I had 121 adjusted points in platinum (AP column). When season 3 started I was placed in gold. Unless the league offsets were changed again just now I have a hard time understanding this. Looking at my opponents league though it's more understandable, but 121 should be well within platinum. There is something going on here. Note: This is not a complaint. I like trying to figure out how the ladder works.
We don't know if Season 3 MMR breakpoints are using a prior distribution based on Season 2 populations, but it's possible. I had a 2v2 team with Vanick that was promoted to Master league like 2 days before the league lock, and then we only played about 6 games after that. Season 3 begins and we're back to Diamond. Either our MMR dropped a lot during that league lock or the breakpoints changed.
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Master: One Tier
Diamond: 7 Tiers
- Tier 1: +150 from Master
- Tier 2: +213 from Master
- Tier 3: +276 from Master
- Tier 4: +339 from Master
- Tier 5: +402 from Master
- Tier 6: +465 from Master
- Tier 7: +528 from Master
Platinum: 3 Tiers, unknown offset
Gold: 2 Tiers, unknown offset
Silver: 3 Tiers, unknown offset per tier
Bronze: 7 Tiers, unknown point offset per tier
if its anything like the diamond tiers, 121 is actually way below 0.
and comparing my post with that of excalibur makes me question my understanding of the system again 
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United States12252 Posts
On July 29 2011 06:41 TheAwesomeAll wrote:Master: One Tier Diamond: 7 Tiers - Tier 1: +150 from Master - Tier 2: +213 from Master - Tier 3: +276 from Master - Tier 4: +339 from Master - Tier 5: +402 from Master - Tier 6: +465 from Master - Tier 7: +528 from Master Platinum: 3 Tiers, unknown offset Gold: 2 Tiers, unknown offset Silver: 3 Tiers, unknown offset per tier Bronze: 7 Tiers, unknown point offset per tier if its anything like the diamond tiers, 121 is actually way below 0. and comparing my post with that of excalibur makes me question my understanding of the system again
That's not how it works. The tiers work such that a player with 100 points who is in Tier 1 Diamond and a player with 415 points who is in Tier 6 Diamond actually have the same amount of points. Tier 6 is a lower skill tier than Tier 1, so it's easier for him to get points in order to normalize the amount of points you'll find in a league.
Now, what this means for Mendelfist is unclear because we don't know what the league and division offsets are for leagues below Diamond (not to mention the offsets might be different now and we'd have no way to prove it). If the offsets continue to be +63 per tier then 121 points should pretty solidly put him around mid-Platinum as long as his MMR is consistent with that range. It's possible that your MMR just fell into the Gold range and your points lagged behind though.
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On July 29 2011 06:38 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2011 04:57 Mendelfist wrote:Here is something to ponder upon. My complete match history for season 2 is here: www.lysator.liu.se/~john/oldhistory.htmlWhen season 2 ended I had 121 adjusted points in platinum (AP column). When season 3 started I was placed in gold. Unless the league offsets were changed again just now I have a hard time understanding this. Looking at my opponents league though it's more understandable, but 121 should be well within platinum. There is something going on here. Note: This is not a complaint. I like trying to figure out how the ladder works. We don't know if Season 3 MMR breakpoints are using a prior distribution based on Season 2 populations, but it's possible. I had a 2v2 team with Vanick that was promoted to Master league like 2 days before the league lock, and then we only played about 6 games after that. Season 3 begins and we're back to Diamond. Either our MMR dropped a lot during that league lock or the breakpoints changed.
Here is the top of my season 2 division with adjusted points, and their placements in season 3:
1 Kiddow 255 Platinum
2 swizcy 232 Platinum
3 Eviscerador 151 Platinum
4 Stan 137 Unranked
5 Negrotiator 131 Unranked
6 Mendelfist 121 Gold
7 ArAyA 111 Unranked
8 BbHugE 111 Platinum
9 Shappy 88 Unranked
10 TomtheLegend 87 Platinum
11 Nemesis 77 Unranked
12 Shattenkind 77 Platinum
13 QdC 75 Unranked
14 Mustah 75 Unranked
Maybe I do have a reason to be annoyed after all? :-) Anyway, I finished season 2 with a win streak. Either points can move faster than MMR, or the season 3 placement is determined by moving MMR average, and not just MMR.
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On July 29 2011 04:57 Mendelfist wrote:Here is something to ponder upon. My complete match history for season 2 is here: www.lysator.liu.se/~john/oldhistory.htmlWhen season 2 ended I had 121 adjusted points in platinum (AP column). When season 3 started I was placed in gold. Unless the league offsets were changed again just now I have a hard time understanding this. Looking at my opponents league though it's more understandable, but 121 should be well within platinum. There is something going on here. Note: This is not a complaint. I like trying to figure out how the ladder works.
Great stuff! My hat's off to you for keeping track of so many games data.
I find it hard making sense from some of the results.
I filtered your data to games you played in plat league, won 11 to 13 points against gold players who lost 11 to 13 points. Looking at the adjusted points difference between you and your opponents, it ranged between -9 and -296. Your division offset obviously remained the same, and from what I understand gold only has 2 division tiers. Even taking into account that the 11-13 range adds noise to the adjusted points difference between you and your opponent (in another thread someone estimated 27 points per "points favored", so let's call it even up to 160 points of 'noise') , it seems to me that the range is much greater than it should be for 2 gold division tiers if gold tier points difference between Gold tier S and Gold tier A was 63 points as it is in Diamond league.
That turned out more complex than I wanted it to. Basically I suspect that gold tier difference might be greater than 63 points (unless I'm missing something obvious here).
And on something unrelated: I find it hard to believe your MMR dropped near the end of the season, seeing how your adjusted points have been fairly steady for dozens of games before that, and you've actually hit an all time high just as season 2 ended. I think that the leagues thresh hold was probably changed.
Also if I had to guesstimate your plat division tier after looking at your match history, I would guess you were in the 3rd one. Meaning 121 bonus-pool-adjusted points might actually be in the negatives for platinum league S rank division. However I am unable to prove your plat division tier from the numbers, so I might be wrong.
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On July 29 2011 17:20 Not_That wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2011 04:57 Mendelfist wrote:Here is something to ponder upon. My complete match history for season 2 is here: www.lysator.liu.se/~john/oldhistory.htmlWhen season 2 ended I had 121 adjusted points in platinum (AP column). When season 3 started I was placed in gold. Unless the league offsets were changed again just now I have a hard time understanding this. Looking at my opponents league though it's more understandable, but 121 should be well within platinum. There is something going on here. Note: This is not a complaint. I like trying to figure out how the ladder works. Great stuff! My hat's off to you for keeping track of so many games data. I find it hard making sense from some of the results.
Yes, I agree that it does look a little bit odd.
I collected this data to do some analysis myself, but I haven't gotten to it yet. One reason is that they changed the league offsets mid season and screwed everything up (it's very visible starting at 2011-06-11). Another reason is that my points never seemed to stabilize. I won 13 and lost 11 for almost every match at the end of the season. I find this strange.
I also want to point out that I included the promotion dates of my opponents. Matches with opponents promoted near the match date should probably be excluded from any type of analysis, because their points would be out of sync with their MMR.
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If they lost (I only looked at games your opponents lost because otherwise it is unclear how much of their points came from their bonus pool) around 11-13 points, then assuming your MMR is near theirs (if you won 11-13 points, and there hasn't been a wild swing in your points prior to the game, then it's reasonable to assume your MMR is near theirs), then that means their points match their MMR fairly well, and the match data can be looked at.
As to winning 13 and losing 11 for a long time, that's perfectly reasonable while your points haven't quite caught up yet with your MMR. Assuming for a moment that the '27 points difference per point favored' estimate is true, then if your points are trailing behind your MMR by roughly 54 then it will take you 27 games (assuming 50% win/loss ratio) to stop seeing +13/-11 and start seeing +12/-12 (okie, so this is a bit of simplification, but you get the idea)
Good point about 11-06 mixing things up, I haven't accounted for that. I wonder if it changes anything though regarding the oddities in the adjusted points difference between you and some of your gold opponents. Specifically the one you were 9 points behind, and the ones you were 280-299 points behind. If I understand correctly then all blizzard did was change the MMR thresh hold required to be placed in certain league(s). That simply means that some players got promoted / demoted around that date, but I can't think of a reason why it would skew results from your data.
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On July 29 2011 21:14 Not_That wrote:
If they lost (I only looked at games your opponents lost because otherwise it is unclear how much of their points came from their bonus pool) around 11-13 points, then assuming your MMR is near theirs (if you won 11-13 points, and there hasn't been a wild swing in your points prior to the game, then it's reasonable to assume your MMR is near theirs), then that means their points match their MMR fairly well, and the match data can be looked at.
Yes, you are probably right that you don't need to look at the promotion date.
About the bonus pool: Remaining bonus for my opponents are in the RB column, and in the cases where they won and had 0 remaining I left the D column empty, so it should be safe to use the D column.
During the ladder lock when many opponents had 0 remaining bonus pool I didn't leave the D column empty. Instead I had a look at their match history to make sure their bonus pool was empty before playing. There should be no errors in the D column due to bonus pool.
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I'm not sure if you were aware of this : Each player has a different MMR for each race he's playing.
As exemple : myself. I played Terran 3-4 months ago and had a very good ratio in bronze league, so I was facing high silver and gold players.
I decided to switch to Zerg and I got average Silver players or high Bronze players.
Today, I'm now back to Terran and tried some ladder. The zerg that just roflstomped me was a platinum leaguer (and definitely a true Platinum because the season just started).
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On July 29 2011 23:14 -Zoda- wrote:
I'm not sure if you were aware of this : Each player has a different MMR for each race he's playing.
As exemple : myself. I played Terran 3-4 months ago and had a very good ratio in bronze league, so I was facing high silver and gold players.
I decided to switch to Zerg and I got average Silver players or high Bronze players.
Today, I'm now back to Terran and tried some ladder. The zerg that just roflstomped me was a platinum leaguer (and definitely a true Platinum because the season just started).
Do you have any evidence to back this up other than this one-time occurance? How many consecutive games did you accrue at the bronze/silver level and how many consecutive games as the other race occured at least two leagues higher than that?
Can anyone replicate this? If so, would be very interesting, but I'm skeptical.
I'll say it right now, I don't believe it works this way. It wouldn't make sense to display a master's league icon because my P and Z are master's level, but I play as T and lose to bronze leaguers, for example.
I am reasonably sure you have too limited a data set to make such a claim, and should be wary of providing such misinformation in a forum such as this.
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Indeed it is not a 100% accurate statement but there must be some variations of MMR depending on the race you play. I see no other way to explain the fact I played my first season 3 match against a silver as Zerg, and the 2nd match against a platinum as Terran (or there was a bug).
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thanks for the reply keep up the good work
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EPT
