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On July 19 2010 13:05 Lark wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2010 12:49 blabber wrote:On July 19 2010 12:43 likeaboss wrote:
Ok I am glad these stats are out so people stop bitching about "terran isnt imbalanced, they are not dominating any tourneys!!!" Yeah well like I said ages ago, that will definitely change and this comes to 0 surprise to me and I really hope they find some way to balance it..... agreed. People who say terran isn't imbalanced are probably terran players themselves who don't want the winning to stop ^_^ There really isn't enough data from this to support that terran is imbalanced- it's all about confirmation bias, and looking at whatever data you want to look at to support your conclusions which you've previously made. If we look at the top 20 we find: - Terran: 24 spots out of 60 - Zerg: 13 spots out of 60 - Protoss/Random: 23 spots out of 60 (Probably around 18 P / 5 R? Just a guess) Given that we don't know how many people are playing each race, it's impossible to tell if it's balanced or not. I.e. if zergs only make up 30% of the population, then they're balanced, and if terran users are slightly more prevalent than protoss, then the increased number of terrans would be justified. Given that we have an extraordinarily tiny sample size, it's fairly impossible to tell anything just from the top 60 (and the top 150, where terrans fall slightly in representation, give a better representation). Note that I'm not saying terran isn't overpowered for sure, I'm saying it may or may not be, but it's impossible to tell just by this data. Also I play terran so I might be biased just a bit...
This is a good post. With this small of a sample size, we should not expect an exactly even distribution of players in the top 50 or 60 even if the races were perfectly balanced, not to mention the fact that the number of people playing each race is not the same.
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On July 19 2010 12:57 koppik wrote:
The chart needs a bit of filtering,at least for Asia. The #3 player on the Asia list is in gold, and the #4 is in bronze.
Yup dead true, the Asia list is not a list of Diamond players, just players with the most points (across all leagues).
Of the top 20 Asia, 9 of them are not in Diamond leagues, so we prob need a bit of a fix up in the base mined data before we can include Asia results in anything.
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i dunno who's right or wrong, but http://starcraftrankings.com/ has different results for NA server
i tried ppl around ranked around 3000, they don't match up
i.e. hdgamer is 2140 in this one, and 3031 in starcraftrankings.com
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On July 19 2010 13:43 Crixus wrote:i dunno who's right or wrong, but http://starcraftrankings.com/ has different results for NA server i tried ppl around ranked around 3000, they don't match up i.e. hdgamer is 2140 in this one, and 3031 in starcraftrankings.com
This has to do with the update frequency of the two different sites, they are not real time but crawl the blizzard site to update. People play games and get shuffled around all the time.
Both state when they were updated last, http://sc2.vacau.com/sc2/ with a time stamp and http://starcraftrankings.com/ with a counter.
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This version of the beta ladder has been out for 2 weeks and people have already played 220+ games!
On a side note, I think it is interesting that Zerg has such few players right now, considering how much potential the swarm has !! 
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+ Show Spoiler +On July 19 2010 13:06 shlomo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2010 12:48 FabledIntegral wrote:
Wowzers, Terran domination in the US.
12 Terran, 5 Toss, 3 Zerg in the top 20?!
Terran also appears to be the most dominant in Asia now, and Zerg the least... so much for all those rumors about Asian Zergs. Nonsense, it's just because there are that many more Terran players that are that much more talented.. OBVIOUSLY! -_- First 2 matches of Day9 King of the Beta = both T winners.. /snore
Please spoiler when telling results of games casted just a few hours ago -_-
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On July 19 2010 14:19 monitor wrote:This version of the beta ladder has been out for 2 weeks and people have already played 220+ games! On a side note, I think it is interesting that Zerg has such few players right now, considering how much potential the swarm has !!
Those bugs are just ugly.... most people do not like to use ugly race. (especially new players!)
I expect the ratio to be even more extreme in the first month of the release.
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Interesting data indeed. Seems its not T that is OP, as Z players have similar win ratio to avg. game count (tho much smaller representation), but its P being too weak across the board...
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Hahaha 3 Zergs in the Top 20 what a joke. Now i know why i'm struggling to stay in the lower part of my diamond division, while i was top 25 of my division when i played Terran without that much of a struggle ... Each time i face a lame Terran strat i regret ever switching races but in the end of the day i just can't go back now that i tasted the Zerg play style which i love. Playing terran was so boring for me ...
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On July 19 2010 13:05 Lark wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2010 12:49 blabber wrote:On July 19 2010 12:43 likeaboss wrote:
Ok I am glad these stats are out so people stop bitching about "terran isnt imbalanced, they are not dominating any tourneys!!!" Yeah well like I said ages ago, that will definitely change and this comes to 0 surprise to me and I really hope they find some way to balance it..... agreed. People who say terran isn't imbalanced are probably terran players themselves who don't want the winning to stop ^_^ Given that we don't know how many people are playing each race, it's impossible to tell if it's balanced or not.
AH BUT WE DO KNOW! I believe this is all diamond players, but a very solid and representative sample. But really, twice as many terrans as zergs in top 20 across 3 servers? The conclusion is inescapable and people seem frantic to defend terran from being labeled imbalanced.
On July 17 2010 09:14 FatkiddsLag wrote:
Went through the data real quick with excel, here's the numbers as of July 18th, 2010 1PM PDT
1120 Protoss
921 Terran
891 Zerg
440 Random
**Thanks to Primadog
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On July 19 2010 11:33 Tamerlane wrote:
- The average games played/player and win ratios are highest in America, then comes Europe and finally Asia. Based on these numbers, it seems the hardest to become Diamond in America.
Errr... If there are higher win ratios doesn't that mean there are more bottom feeders in US servers? Based on those numbers, it seems the easiest to become Diamond in America.
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It's great to see all these old school WC3 players joining the SC2 scene... i recognize a lot of people from US West/East back in the day.
Wish blizzard would just create a global ladder system... I mean if user's can datamine their site and parse all the data in a day, it shouldn't take blizzard that long to create their own much more detailed version.
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Randoms were not considered
Global Top 100 (95 players without randoms):
Terran 40 42.1%
Protoss 38 40%
Zerg 17 17.9%
Global population (11290 players without randoms):
Terran 3776 30%
Protoss 4421 39.2%
Zerg 3093 27.4%
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On July 19 2010 11:49 Marou wrote:
for the people who stills doesnt know UnknownArt(europe #1 atm), that's Madfrog, a former swedish wc3 progamer who had a pretty enjoyable style of play. He's back from retirement and i'm looking forward to see him perform in the tourneys at release !
That's awesome, I didn't know that was MaDFroG! He was insane back in his WC3 days. He's actually #1 in the world currently in terms of points.
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Isn't it really obivous that numbers like these don't say anything about balance?
Statistics are statistics.
All we can conclude from these numbers is that Zerg is highly underplayed and Protoss and Teran are somewhat overplayed.
There are far more different factors needed to conclude that a certain race or playstyle is overpowered than just the amount of players that use that certain race / playstyle. I think that this in particular has to do with the Flavor Of The Month type of hypes that every big multiplayer game, mainly MMO's, has everynow and then.
As far as I'm concerned all this says is that Zerg is a race that is either less appealing to people or, and that's probably the case, has the most inconvenient mechanics for new players.
The only thing I can't defend is the fact that this trend continues to grow towards the top of the league's and thus the people with the highest skill level. But the only thing that gives us is a slight hunch that Terran might be more effective in the hands of top players and therefore imbalanced.
But again numbers are numbers and allways will be numbers.
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On July 19 2010 13:05 Lark wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2010 12:49 blabber wrote:On July 19 2010 12:43 likeaboss wrote:
Ok I am glad these stats are out so people stop bitching about "terran isnt imbalanced, they are not dominating any tourneys!!!" Yeah well like I said ages ago, that will definitely change and this comes to 0 surprise to me and I really hope they find some way to balance it..... agreed. People who say terran isn't imbalanced are probably terran players themselves who don't want the winning to stop ^_^ There really isn't enough data from this to support that terran is imbalanced- it's all about confirmation bias, and looking at whatever data you want to look at to support your conclusions which you've previously made. If we look at the top 20 we find: - Terran: 24 spots out of 60 - Zerg: 13 spots out of 60 - Protoss/Random: 23 spots out of 60 (Probably around 18 P / 5 R? Just a guess) Given that we don't know how many people are playing each race, it's impossible to tell if it's balanced or not. I.e. if zergs only make up 30% of the population, then they're balanced, and if terran users are slightly more prevalent than protoss, then the increased number of terrans would be justified. Given that we have an extraordinarily tiny sample size, it's fairly impossible to tell anything just from the top 60 (and the top 150, where terrans fall slightly in representation, give a better representation). Note that I'm not saying terran isn't overpowered for sure, I'm saying it may or may not be, but it's impossible to tell just by this data. Also I play terran so I might be biased just a bit...
Erm the population doesn't matter, it would only matter is we are assuming the game IS balanced, which is the opposite of what we are assuming. Even if there is a much higher population of Terran players than Zerg, if Zerg was OP, you'd expect more Zergs to be in the top tier than Terran. If it was balanced, then you'd expect more Terran than Zerg in the proportion relative to population.
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On July 19 2010 13:05 Lark wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2010 12:49 blabber wrote:On July 19 2010 12:43 likeaboss wrote:
Ok I am glad these stats are out so people stop bitching about "terran isnt imbalanced, they are not dominating any tourneys!!!" Yeah well like I said ages ago, that will definitely change and this comes to 0 surprise to me and I really hope they find some way to balance it..... agreed. People who say terran isn't imbalanced are probably terran players themselves who don't want the winning to stop ^_^ There really isn't enough data from this to support that terran is imbalanced- it's all about confirmation bias, and looking at whatever data you want to look at to support your conclusions which you've previously made. If we look at the top 20 we find: - Terran: 24 spots out of 60 - Zerg: 13 spots out of 60 - Protoss/Random: 23 spots out of 60 (Probably around 18 P / 5 R? Just a guess) Given that we don't know how many people are playing each race, it's impossible to tell if it's balanced or not. I.e. if zergs only make up 30% of the population, then they're balanced, and if terran users are slightly more prevalent than protoss, then the increased number of terrans would be justified. Given that we have an extraordinarily tiny sample size, it's fairly impossible to tell anything just from the top 60 (and the top 150, where terrans fall slightly in representation, give a better representation). Note that I'm not saying terran isn't overpowered for sure, I'm saying it may or may not be, but it's impossible to tell just by this data. Also I play terran so I might be biased just a bit...
You make a point, however, an analysis of the situation needs a deeper explanation. True that if the population proportions are way off, this specific sample of players would be skewed as well. You have to realize though that the actual population can't be skewed unless the explanation presented (terran being op) had some partial truth. The idea that players just randomly selected more of one than can only explain very small groups. As the group grows, the possibility of random skewing becomes unlikely. Then you have to place the cause on other factors. If there are more terran players, then why is that? It can't be that people happened to pick it more. There can only be so many explanations, most of which will touch somewhat on balance.
Sort of compare it to how people study women in the workplace. People believe women should be equally represented in most sectors. Any given random sample of a population will usually yield somewhere near a 50/50 result because we know from scientific fact that gender is a 50/50 probability (assuming we don't start factoring in things like china population control, etc). So you would expect any random sample of a workplace to be 50/50 as well. So when it deviates at a statistically significant amount, what do you use to explain? According to the above posters explanation, thats just what it "happened" to be. However, if your taking a sample of 1000 people, the odds of getting a statistically significant skew at that high of sample is very very low. So then you must attribute the difference to other factors.
And the only factor that can really skew it that way, is balance.
Therefore op's explanation stands.
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On July 19 2010 17:18 Zignius wrote:
Isn't it really obivous that numbers like these don't say anything about balance?
Statistics are statistics.
All we can conclude from these numbers is that Zerg is highly underplayed and Protoss and Zerg are somewhat overplayed.
There are far more different factors needed to conclude that a certain race or playstyle is overpowered than just the amount of players that use that certain race / playstyle. I think that this in particular has to do with the Flavor Of The Month type of hypes that every big multiplayer game, mainly MMO's, has everynow and then.
As far as I'm concerned all this says is that Zerg is a race that is either less appealing to people or, and that's probably the case, has the most inconvenient mechanics for new players.
The only thing I can't defend is the fact that this trend continues to grow towards the top of the league's and thus the people with the highest skill level. But the only thing that gives us is a slight hunch that Terran might be more effective in the hands of top players and therefore imbalanced.
But again numbers are numbers and allways will be numbers.
Holy christ, you guys are either really dirt stupid or going to great lengths to convince yourselves zerg isn't underpowered. Compared to the general population, which shows a relatively even distribution, the racial distribution of the global top 100 displays clear favoritism to protoss and terran. You can see exactly the statistics regarding how many people play what race and the fact is that they're a significant enough discrepancy between that and what people play at the top levels to easily conclude that zerg is objectively worse. Zerg isn't simply "less appealling to people", 27% play it but the composition of the top 100 players is only 17% zerg. That argument is just plain stupid.
Don't believe it still? play a zvt against a remotely competent terran.
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On July 19 2010 17:42 Drowsy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2010 17:18 Zignius wrote:
Isn't it really obivous that numbers like these don't say anything about balance?
Statistics are statistics.
All we can conclude from these numbers is that Zerg is highly underplayed and Protoss and Zerg are somewhat overplayed.
There are far more different factors needed to conclude that a certain race or playstyle is overpowered than just the amount of players that use that certain race / playstyle. I think that this in particular has to do with the Flavor Of The Month type of hypes that every big multiplayer game, mainly MMO's, has everynow and then.
As far as I'm concerned all this says is that Zerg is a race that is either less appealing to people or, and that's probably the case, has the most inconvenient mechanics for new players.
The only thing I can't defend is the fact that this trend continues to grow towards the top of the league's and thus the people with the highest skill level. But the only thing that gives us is a slight hunch that Terran might be more effective in the hands of top players and therefore imbalanced.
But again numbers are numbers and allways will be numbers.
Holy christ, you guys are either really dirt stupid or going to great lengths to convince yourselves zerg isn't underpowered. Compared to the general population, which shows a relatively even distribution, the racial distribution of the global top 100 displays clear favoritism to protoss and terran. You can see exactly the statistics regarding how many people play what race and the fact is that they're a significant enough discrepancy between that and what people play at the top levels to easily conclude that zerg is objectively worse. Zerg isn't simply "less appealling to people", 27% play it but the composition of the top 100 players is only 17% zerg. That argument is just plain stupid. Don't believe it still? play a zvt against a remotely competent terran.
The only thing that means is that zerg is underpowered at lower levels of play. Z have the same win rates at high levels as other races and the underrepresentation of zerg can easily be attributed to over-presentation of P.
Without doing a regression model with dummy variables you can NOT imply anything about balance.
But keep blaming balance or the science of statistics all you want.
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EPT
