EPTNBA Season 2017-2018 - Page 39
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
ESPN Real Plus Minus correctly identified Wiggins horrific defense in 2016-2017. On November 28 2017 23:32 JimmiC wrote: Rolf there is a reason why you are a joke that shows up in peoples sigs and new threads and I do not. Effort is not a measurable stat, I've linked articles that say the counter points to yours in the past. People have differing OPINIONS. Now when you prove you don't understand shit is when you post ridiculous shit on the people that show some of the weaknesses to your beloved stat (a beloved stat your don't know how to apply or how it works lol) such as Kyrie. Keep posting long stupid shit and ill keep laughing about it. you just said 1 post ago you were ignoring my posts. what happened? you are contradicting yourself again. have fun name calling  On November 28 2017 23:32 JimmiC wrote: Effort is not a measurable stat lack of effort manifests itself in poor productivity. lack of effort is observable. i saw it last year. so did lots of others. lack of effort made Wiggins the worst starting SF on defense last year. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
more name-calling. no sources. On November 28 2017 23:41 JimmiC wrote: You treat that stat like crazy religious people treat there book, it's true because it says it is. Who cares that it obviously wasn't true or isn't true about kyrie cp3, jordan, tross so on and so forth. i've provided a mountain of other defensive metrics showing Wiggins was terrible last year on defense http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2697532-nba-metrics-101-the-worst-5-defenders-at-every-position then i also presented the 82games.com data and how every team mate has a much worse defensive rating when playing with Wiggins. Wiggins defense was horrible last year. Regarding Minnesota's defense this year i posted my thoughts on reddit and got some interesting replies. https://www.reddit.com/r/timberwolves/comments/7g3ulw/what_is_wrong_with_minnesotas_defense/?st=jajqwlyu&sh=1b676459 Towns frequently over hedges in PnR situations leaving his man open on the role. Not sure if this is coming from Thibs, but KAT seems to stay on the PG for too long, losing valuable recovery time on his big man rolling to the hoop. At that point its too late for any help to come over either. KAT also chases just about every block he is able to. He will get one occasionally, but not with enough consistency to justify it. This leaves him grossly out of position for rebounds, leading to easy put backs. If the shot doesn't go up, it's usually getting dished to his man, who is now wide open because KAT over-committed to the ball handler. He can't guard centers that are bigger than him. I'll reference a two game stretch vs Drummond and Howard. He was getting bullied in the post. DET/CHA would iso their bigs against him and it was free cake. There were also a ton of offensive rebounds given up in those games. KATs length and size should help, but he still needs to do some strengthening. Lower body is especially important for holding post position. Those are a few things I've noticed in watching the games. They are all fixable. It comes down to communication and discipline on defense. Talk to your guard in PnR situations. Don't leave your feet on defense. The third is just time in the weight room. If KAT really wants to be great, which I think he does, he will have to sure up these issues. the comment below is a reflection of Rubio's absence. he was a real QB during break outs last year. It's not just KAT. Our transition defense is poor. On most breaks you have multiple guys chasing the ball when the other, or others, should fan out to a wing runner or the trailer. I don't understand how such supremely talented offensive players do not have clue where to put themselves in rotations or in the best case defensive position against a run out. Just challenge a few more shots per game and it will make a big difference. We just don't work for the opportunity to challenge a shot. All-in-all this is a pretty deep dive into Minnesota's defense this year. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
By the way, you just posted Individual stats about Towns, and that is not how RAPM or xAPM works, can you explain through RAPM why Towns is a bad player? Who are good players according to RAPM? Would Horry and Rodman be considered good RAPM players? | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
On November 29 2017 01:21 Twinkle Toes wrote: JJ, are they many kinds of Plus Minus? What are they? Now I'm more confused. By the way, you just posted Individual stats about Towns, and that is not how RAPM or xAPM works, can you explain through RAPM why Towns is a bad player? We've gone over several types of Plus/Minus this week and last week. Check my previous posts in this thread. Towns' ESPN-Real-Plus-Minus + Show Spoiler + Towns' ESPN Real Plus Minus line is here. http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/9 His Defensive Real Plus Minus is (-1.77) and the worst, by a huge margin, amongst NBA Centers. | ||
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ZenithM
France15952 Posts
 .I remember Cody Zeller was a beast too in one of JimmyJ's link. That's my problem when JimmyJ uses those to say X should start over Y because he has better RPM or something. Otto Porter has better RPM than Lebron James, should the Cavs pick up the phone? Porter for James, who says no? And imo huge shifts for no reason in these +/- values supposed to account for teammates and opposition are also what tells me they might not be working as intended. Westbrook had a DRPM of -0.5 last year, this year he has the 4th best PG DRPM at 1.1. Has he suddenly become a better and more active defender? Or is he just playing with Paul George (a defender who actually passes the eye test) more? I don't mind these metrics, but as any other metrics, they have to be used in conjunction with other metrics, and the "eye test", to be useful. Feels like sometimes JimmyJ singles them out to convince us that they are the best measure we got. Maybe they are, but it's still not very good... | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
On November 29 2017 01:29 ZenithM wrote: I don't mind these metrics, but as any other metrics, they have to be used in conjunction with other metrics, and the "eye test", to be useful. Feels like sometimes JimmyJ singles them out to convince us that they are the best measure we got. Maybe they are, but it's still not very good... yep, that is why i provided many other metrics in assessing Wiggins defense as horrible last year. if you like i can post up an entire cross section of defense metrics for Wiggins this year that point to him being better than horrible this year. Also, I'm watching the games and Wiggins is working harder and doing more on defense. Last year every possible defense metric pointed to Wiggins being horrible and these metrics work best on the extreme best and worst defenders. The identify the very best and hte very worst most easily. The hardest part for any of these metrics is to distinguish between slightly above average and average OR average and slightly below average. But the world and best extremes are easy stuff for the various defense metrics we have at our disposal. In the particular analysis of Minnesota's defense i provided it gives us a Center who is at the extreme worst in terms of defense. That is low hanging fruit for a stat like ESPN's Real Plus Minus. On November 29 2017 01:29 ZenithM wrote: And imo huge shifts for no reason in these +/- values supposed to account for teammates and opposition are also what tells me they might not be working as intended. Westbrook had a DRPM of -0.5 last year, this year he has the 4th best PG DRPM at 1.1. Has he suddenly become a better and more active defender? Or is he just playing with Paul George (a defender who actually passes the eye test) more? the stat needs a lot of data to work effectively. this is why i waited for 3 years before taking the stat seriously. When i see swings from year to year in players i can usually see it long before it shows up in ESPN Real Plus Minus. As I observed Wiggins early in pre-season and early in the season working a lot harder and i posted it here. Surprise .. Surprise all his metrics on defense are better. Have you noticed the difference between "skinny Kyle" and the old fat kyle. i noticed the difference in his play long before it hit ESPN Real PLus MInus. Ultimately, Kyle Lowry's improved diet and off court cardio program made him a lot better as a player and eventually was reflected in his stats. I watch the Raptors pretty closely and I can't find an instance where ESPN Real Plus Minus badly missed the mark on a player's full season 60+ game performance. I'd need to watch Westbrook closely to determine if the metrics are way off. Also, its all relative to players at his own position. You can't compare the Defensive RPM of a Center to a Point Guard. That is like comparing the ERA of a starting pitcher to the ERA of a left handed single inning specialist that throws side arm and only faces lefties. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
Fred Van Vleet's RPM has changed drastically and it is correctly measuring his performance. At their best metrics can accurately measure performance. They rarely can tell you why something happened. F.V.V. switching from off-ball guard to on-ball guard had to come from direct observation. On November 29 2017 02:02 JimmiC wrote: Its funny that because of your lack of reading comprehension you think that people are arguing with you about andrew wiggins defending better this year. It is the cause not being simply effort, and it is how you apply the stat. Its not that the stat is bad its your blanket application. But i guess it gets people responding to you which is your main goal. you still have not addressed the myriad of other defensive metrics all pointing to wiggins being a horrible defender last year. Wiggins last year and Towns this year are good examples because both examples illuminate how defense metrics are good at nailing down the extreme worst defenders. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
Thus, I'd rather talk about what makes Towns a poor defender this year. it appears my reddit post is bearing fruit. https://www.reddit.com/r/timberwolves/comments/7g3ulw/what_is_wrong_with_minnesotas_defense/?st=jajw18az&sh=e2eb6239 Yeah, it doesn't take an expert to see how difficult it is for Towns to play defense. When he "attempts" to contest a shot, he advertises his move from a mile away. It's as if only half his body is awake, pulling the sleeping half across the court. The same thing happens when he does "acrobatic" things, like dunk the ball. His arms flail around as if he's been possessed by a giant cockroach. His core strength is so bad that he reminds me of a chubby kid doing a cartwheel whenever he does anything. His jump shot is about as athletic as an anvil. He could turn it all around by dedicating himself to becoming an NBA caliber athlete, but he seems content to get by on youth. I was thinking about this the other day, but has anyone considered that KAT never really learned how to defend in the post? We hear all the time how he learned how to play with guard skills, and didn't really work on his post moves until he was at Kentucky. I think that may be part of the reason he seems a little off when guarding big men in the post, but looks quite proficient when guarding guards (see rookie year on Curry, or even more recent switches, like how he handles Kemba Walker in I think the first Charlotte matchup). Interesting to think about when you read this piece about his time at Kentucky, and even though I think it's mostly about offense, it wouldn't surprise me if it applied to the defensive end as well. The other part that is interesting is that coming out of college he actually looked like he'd be better defensively than on offense, but I think that can be attributed to his better relative athleticism and size in the college game. When you look at his games in the NBA, his biggest struggles are when matched up against bigger, stronger centers than him (Drummond, Howard, etc.). As he gets older and stronger, with more experience how to handle those types of centers I bet he starts to look a lot better very quickly. https://www.si.com/college-basketball/john-calipari-book-excerpt-kentucky-karl-anthony-towns lots of good info on why Towns is not getting it done at the defensive end. any thoughts on Towns? | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
I think this is a good stat that can be powerful when used correctly, although one that is very difficult to understand. | ||
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ZenithM
France15952 Posts
It's like the opposite of my example with CP3 and DJ. They both posted insane defensive ratings (DRPM, an individual metric), but I'm convinced the correct interpretation is that they're a fearsome defensive duo together (maybe even helped by other good defensive players like Mbah a Moute). Greater than the sum of their parts kinda thing, which is what you look for in a basketball team, but DRPM actually doesn't really reflect the value of the parts themselves (that's my feeling at least, after looking at it in spurts for the past 1 or 2 years). So maybe the same thing is happening with Wiggins and Towns' defense. They look more awful than they really are because they play together. Not through the fault of really any one of them. It's hard to learn how to position yourself in defense if 1) you're quite clueless about it, 2) you're playing with another clueless guy. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Good work trying to explain RPM and it's variants JJ. Great stats (among my favorite). As an aside for those asking RPM stats become clearer the more data points (games) fed into it. RAPM adjusts for this better than normal APM. Secondly you should be comparing players (especially on defense) based on position. Guards, wings, bigs - tends to lessen the noise in your brain thinking of it this way. A guard with a -.1 DRPM isn't a disaster if most guards in the league are +.1. However a big being -.01 when the average big is 1.0 is a potential killer. This is why CP3 is ultra valuable via RPM metrics (a guard with wing level impact on defense) whereas Kyrie can suffer horribly (good boxscore numbers but ORPM shows he isn't as good as advertised relative to other guards) *I haven't looked at either player's numbers this year yet. Those are just examples. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
On November 29 2017 02:39 ZenithM wrote: I'm a bit wary of looking at individual stats of 2 guys sharing the floor a lot, especially to say they're awful defenders. It's like the opposite of my example with CP3 and DJ. They both posted insane defensive ratings (DRPM, an individual metric), but I'm convinced the correct interpretation is that they're a fearsome defensive duo together (maybe even helped by other good defensive players like Mbah a Moute). Greater than the sum of their parts kinda thing, which is what you look for in a basketball team, but DRPM actually doesn't really reflect the value of the parts themselves (that's my feeling at least, after looking at it in spurts for the past 1 or 2 years). So maybe the same thing is happening with Wiggins and Towns' defense. They look more awful than they really are because they play together. Not through the fault of really any one of them. It's hard to learn how to position yourself in defense if 1) you're quite clueless about it, 2) you're playing with another clueless guy. out of the 5 starters Wiggins and Towns are definitely the 2 worst defenders and the reason Minnesota is 25th the NBA in defense. I happen to think Wiggins is better than Towns this year, but i'm canadian; it could be my patriotic bias showing through. On November 29 2017 03:40 Ace wrote: Secondly you should be comparing players (especially on defense) based on position. Guards, wings, bigs - tends to lessen the noise in your brain thinking of it this way. A guard with a -.1 DRPM isn't a disaster if most guards in the league are +.1. However a big being -.01 when the average big is 1.0 is a potential killer. This is why CP3 is ultra valuable via RPM metrics (a guard with wing level impact on defense) whereas Kyrie can suffer horribly (good boxscore numbers but ORPM shows he isn't as good as advertised relative to other guards) true, you must compare position against position.. you can't compare a center to a point guard with these metrics. Another thing you can't really do.. is compare a 38 minute-a-game guy to an 18 minute-a-game guy. Kyle Anderson is a solid above average defender. With surgical, genius 18 minute-a-game usage by Greg Popovich then Anderson ends up with an amazing Defensive Real Plus Minus. Give Anderson starter minutes and make him defend against everyone and its similar to how you can't compare an MLB starting pitcher's ERA to a left handed side-arming specialist that pitches 2 innings a week. The Starting pitcher must face everyone. The left handed side armer might indeed face good left handed hitters.. but they are good hitters that his pitching style is most effective. The minute a right handed hitter with an open batting stance steps up to the plate... the left handed side armer is removed from the game. That's how Pop used Kyle Anderson last year. Anderson's great defense metrics last year are partly due to Anderson indeed being a solid defender and a substantial portion of those great defensive #s are owed to the savant greg popovich. On November 29 2017 03:40 Ace wrote: Paul and Harden are 2 of the most portable players in league history. Anyone saying they wouldn't work never really understood much about NBA offenses. i have not watched enough of Harden to comment. However, Paul has a sky high basketball iq. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17708 Posts
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21598771/la-clippers-blake-griffin-sprained-mcl-miss-two-months On November 29 2017 04:38 Ace wrote: You're missing out man. Harden is just....wow. Games are pretty much over by the 1st quarter. even with those on-demand league pass edited "games in an hour" i don't have enough time. too many teams. | ||
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