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You think the East will be even worse this year?
Bear with me here: So you don't think they will be a 65 win team? So you think they will be between 55 and 60 wins? But you think they could easily get 50 wins in the West? So you think being in the East is only worth about 5-7 wins? My prediction is I'm taking the under for 55 wins.
Remember the Heat won 54 games last year. Granted, there might have been some sandbagging to that as soon as they realized they weren't going to catch Indiana. You could easily argue that this team has more talent/fresh legs than last year's Heat, but chemistry and lineups matter.
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Argue? As in, not playing their second best player 25 games isn't sandbagging?
Plus, I personally think it is more than just talent that gets most teams over the 60 game hump, it's also actually wanting to do it. The shaq Lakers never really racked up wins, and they were disgusting. There are schedule losses, travel losses, etc. When the cavs won a ton, Lebron brought it every night. Teams like the spurs, do it by winning even when they don't give a shit.
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I think 65 wins would be really special. You don't see anything around that figure often. There have been three seasons in recent memory? Mavs in '06, Cavs in '08 (WTF HOW???) and Heat in '12. I guess Lebron was on two of those teams..09 Cavs??? Maybe Ben Wallace really was a plus/plus/plus player.
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The last Heat team clearly didn't give a shit about the regular season. The previous Lebron Cavs teams were full of hustle players and a coach who cared about the regular season. They also had a much younger Lebron who brought it every night.
You forgot Celtics in '07.
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On August 10 2014 13:41 Jerubaal wrote:
You think the East will be even worse this year?
Bear with me here: So you don't think they will be a 65 win team? So you think they will be between 55 and 60 wins? But you think they could easily get 50 wins in the West? So you think being in the East is only worth about 5-7 wins? My prediction is I'm taking the under for 55 wins.
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I think they actually would do better in the West (just like Miami) because for some reason Lebron/Wade tend to dominate Western teams. IIrc their winning % vs the West was better than their overall record 3 out of 4 years. Could also just be familiarity within their conference leads to losses. But Lebron + Love alone are going to get you ~40 wins alone. Kyrie + Varajeo+ flotsam should be able to scrape in another 10 
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On August 10 2014 13:57 slyboogie wrote:
I think 65 wins would be really special. You don't see anything around that figure often. There have been three seasons in recent memory? Mavs in '06, Cavs in '08 (WTF HOW???) and Heat in '12. I guess Lebron was on two of those teams..09 Cavs??? Maybe Ben Wallace really was a plus/plus/plus player.
He was actually still a big plus for that Cavs team on D.
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On August 10 2014 13:57 slyboogie wrote:
I think 65 wins would be really special. You don't see anything around that figure often. There have been three seasons in recent memory? Mavs in '06, Cavs in '08 (WTF HOW???) and Heat in '12. I guess Lebron was on two of those teams..09 Cavs??? Maybe Ben Wallace really was a plus/plus/plus player.
Ya, I think it's kind of what's to be taken from that 65-win number. The way I see it, it is a realistic number on how good they can possibly be. With this being their first year together, figuring stuff out, etc, 65-wins could be their win-total if everything just goes right. In a way it is putting a realistic win-total on their potential upside while taking into consideration all the challenges they might possibly face.
I mean 65 wins is definitely possible by these cast of players, but they would need one hell of a season to pull it off. 65 is more like their cap the way I see it.
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why 65? i thought the record is 72 wins by the bulls, why not use 72 instead?
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On August 11 2014 09:07 rei wrote:
why 65? i thought the record is 72 wins by the bulls, why not use 72 instead?
u mean why not 73? cavs will win 73 games easy.
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Because 72 is unreasonable. Kevin Love would basically have to become the equivalent of Lebron 2012 for them to even conceive of such a season. Or Kyrie would need to become CP3 2009 and Waiters becoming non-insane Lance Stephenson.
Even with all of those things happening they still probably wouldnt get 70.
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Too many variables with new roster and coach. I think 55-60 is a reasonable expectation for the cavs.
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Happy birthday, penile colony.
As I said, I'll take the under on 55 wins.
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You need such luck and a loaded roster to approach 70 wins.
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I read an analysis of the 72 win bulls and their conclusion was basically that the Bulls were historically great and even then only hit 72 wins because the league was historically weak at that point, because the expansion draft both in 89 and the same year meant that talent was diluted throughout the league. It'd be almost impossible for any team to hit 72 wins now both because few teams will ever be as good as those Bulls teams and the league as a whole will be unlikely to have diluted talent to the extent that the NBA was the year the Bulls did it.
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On August 11 2014 10:33 DystopiaX wrote:
I read an analysis of the 72 win bulls and their conclusion was basically that the Bulls were historically great and even then only hit 72 wins because the league was historically weak at that point, because the expansion draft both in 89 and the same year meant that talent was diluted throughout the league. It'd be almost impossible for any team to hit 72 wins now both because few teams will ever be as good as those Bulls teams and the league as a whole will be unlikely to have diluted talent to the extent that the NBA was the year the Bulls did it.
Phil in his book also basically wrote that Ohare Airport + Being in the middle of the country was also a huge part of it. Basically, they rarely had long trips and Chicago basically gave them free reign so they also had no delays. Plus, you know, Jordan. Pissed Jordan.
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lol just come back to the thread to see this discussion happening.
The Cavs won't get 70 wins. I'll put a 3 month ban bet on that.
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On August 11 2014 12:35 Vindicare605 wrote:
lol just come back to the thread to see this discussion happening.
The Cavs won't get 70 wins. I'll put a 3 month ban bet on that.
seeing how only 1 team in history has gotten over 70 wins, i can only say that you have balls of STEEL for making this bet. /s
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On August 11 2014 12:49 zev318 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2014 12:35 Vindicare605 wrote:
lol just come back to the thread to see this discussion happening.
The Cavs won't get 70 wins. I'll put a 3 month ban bet on that. seeing how only 1 team in history has gotten over 70 wins, i can only say that you have balls of STEEL for making this bet. /s
I didn't say I did. I'm making the bet precisely because the notion that the Cavs will make it is so ridiculous I don't feel like I'm actually making a real wager.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
they are not going to break 60 wins unless the east is just disastrously bad. with a soft interior d they can't coast that much.
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I remember that Pistons team in the mid 2000's, where their record was on pace of that 72-10 record. They were so good in the regular season, they sent 4 of the 5 starters to the all star team. Loved watching them pistons play....
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EPT
