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NBA Offseason 2013 - Page 61

Forum Index > Sports
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RowdierBob
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
Australia13293 Posts
July 31 2013 02:52 GMT
#1201
[image loading]
"Terrans are pretty much space-Australians" - H
beesinyoface
Profile Joined May 2012
2450 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-31 02:59:05
July 31 2013 02:56 GMT
#1202
Monroe ain't the best in the league, but he's showing some great signs of improvement. Hell, even everyone during the summer league was praising his efforts (bar from one bad game) and saying how any team would love to have him. He's a great role model on the team and basically tells them that if they don't give 100% every game, they should just fucking say so and sit on the bench. Pretty good quote I found about his transition and shit:

"How will Greg Monroe handle the shift to defending power forwards with extended range? If the numbers are any indication, he'll not only handle it well, he'll excel. According to Synergy Sports, Monroe is ranked 17th in the league (regardless of position) in defending spot-up perimeter shots including long twos and three-point attempts. Synergy has tracked 87 spot-up attempts against Monroe this season, and he's allowed 31.1% inside the three point line and 26.9% beyond. These marks are better than a "who's who" of defensively-acclaimed big men, making him a virtual stopper when the opposing team employs a stretch shooting big man."

Plus, with him and Drummond (who has been getting coached recently) and the defense is going to be pretty damn solid for a team that went 29-53 last year. I think people still have this super high expectation that we should be REALLY GOOD right now instead of gradually getting there with some solid players.
aaaaa
RowdierBob
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
Australia13293 Posts
July 31 2013 03:07 GMT
#1203
How many spot-up perimeter shots has he guarded though? I imagine that would be a pretty small sample size.
"Terrans are pretty much space-Australians" - H
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-31 03:10:37
July 31 2013 03:07 GMT
#1204
Synergy has Monroe at 195 on defense, although it's not perfect. Still, the lack of athleticism and bad positioning are pretty apparent. Remember that blocks and paint FG% paper from the Sloan conference that we were looking at earlier in the season? I think it had Monroe near the bottom in all of its numbers.

^Those Synergy numbers were from January, btw. The more recent numbers are not so pretty, except on PnR's. I think his allowed FG% is like 44%, and 41% from 3.

I think people still have this super high expectation that we should be REALLY GOOD right now instead of gradually getting there with some solid players.
See, this is the argument for not signing Jennings.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-31 03:19:13
July 31 2013 03:10 GMT
#1205
Which means exactly what? That he is bad at some aspects of defense or he is a bad defensive player period? They are very different things. I can't find any defensive metric (APM based anyway) that shows him as a terrible defensive player. If he is there has to be something these stats aren't accounting for that makes it hard to spot. Since it seems like a popular theory that he is a bad defender this should be something easy to spot that Plus-Minus stats pick up on.

ETA: The only aspect Synergy has graded where Monroe is getting absolutely torched is Post Up Defense. I don't see how you can extrapolate that to being bad defensively.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-31 03:21:39
July 31 2013 03:20 GMT
#1206
It's his rank at individual defense (not team defense.) He's fair at spot ups and isolation, good at PnR and horrible at post defense. Now combine with the bad blocking/shot alteration numbers (aka weak help defense) and he's below average.

I'm pretty skeptical of ASPM, especially over just a season.

EDIT: The Synergy stat only covers individual defense (you can see Larry Sanders is like #120 or something,) he's also a bad help defender.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 31 2013 03:25 GMT
#1207
Individual defensive rank means nothing. You can have bench players with low possessions with high rank since it's based off of Points Per Possession. He's included in small sample sizes and there is no way you honestly think he is in the 200 level of defenders in the entire league.

Synergy doesn't show him as a terrible defender except in Post Ups. Add in Sanders, Bosh, and Duncan and look at their awesome defensive numbers then look at Monroe's rows. Then check his numbers in any APM based stat. He is not a terrible defender at all and not even below average.

If you're skeptical - use RAPM which takes prior seasons into account.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
July 31 2013 03:27 GMT
#1208
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/The Dwight Effect A New Ensemble of Interior Defense Analytics for the NBA.pdf

There's the Sloan paper. Monroe was 50th (out of 52) at FG% when opponent was close to basket, and 44th in FG% of opponent when he was within 5ft.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 31 2013 03:32 GMT
#1209
Which is what aspect of defense???? How does that tell us he is a bad overall defender?

Also went digging around looking for non-box score based Plus-Minus so it doesn't give Monroe credit for grabbing rebounds. This is all I could find on "real" RAPM which shows Monroe as horrible defensively. Sadly it only went up to March 30th but that should be enough possessions to get his defensive impact. I'll try to find another one or hope this guy updates it or adds an NPI list.

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2013-rapm-non-prior-informed-updated-march-30


Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
beesinyoface
Profile Joined May 2012
2450 Posts
July 31 2013 03:42 GMT
#1210
No one is really expecting the numbers to be pretty - we all know Monroe isn't a beast on defense yet, even he knows it. It didn't help last year that he had absolutely no help on defense because him and Drummond got no time together. I am 99% sure that when both of them are starting next year, Monroe's numbers are going to increase.

He has some glaring issues that need to get fixed, and from what I've seen/read he's already started to fix his shit during summer league games. Yeah, I know it's summer league but it's still a start in the right direction.
aaaaa
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
July 31 2013 03:50 GMT
#1211
Either way, right now I'd categorize him somewhere with Al Jefferson, and not a FA-drawing name.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
beesinyoface
Profile Joined May 2012
2450 Posts
July 31 2013 03:52 GMT
#1212
No for sure and I think that's where we got mixed up before; he isn't worthy enough to grab big FAs to the team, but when you put him together with a few other pieces, it DOES help out a lot.

Without him honestly I don't think we would have even got Smith, but then again I'm not too sure. Either way, I'm super excited for the season to start and watch some games ^^
aaaaa
RowdierBob
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
Australia13293 Posts
July 31 2013 07:34 GMT
#1213
What do those RAPM numbers represent, Ace? Is Miami's offence 5.1 points better with LeBron on the court, for example?
"Terrans are pretty much space-Australians" - H
krndandaman
Profile Joined August 2009
Mozambique16569 Posts
July 31 2013 09:42 GMT
#1214
--- Nuked ---
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-31 16:53:20
July 31 2013 16:52 GMT
#1215
On July 31 2013 16:34 RowdierBob wrote:
What do those RAPM numbers represent, Ace? Is Miami's offence 5.1 points better with LeBron on the court, for example?


In essence yes. It really means surrounded by average teammates he is +5.1 points better offensively than an average player surrounded by average teammates (average players are set to 0.0). That's why it takes so long for these numbers to come out since you can have situations where say Lebron + Bosh play a ton of minutes together and RAPM has difficulty separating the impact. So they take last year's RAPM and this year's and try to find a solid number. Basically if you see RAPM values for a guy move a lot in consecutive years and he isn't injured, new team,/line up, or nothing drastic happened you usually can say "oh shit, this guy is gonna struggle" or "uh oh, he put it together"and be correct.

This site is box-score based RAPM if I remember correctly, which is less ideal than "normal" but go through the years. Look at some of the RAPM values and try to remember public perception of some players. You'd be surprised at how good/bad some guys really are based on it.

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
karazax
Profile Joined May 2010
United States3737 Posts
July 31 2013 16:54 GMT
#1216
Chris Paul was considering coming to the Rockets if the deal for Doc Rivers hadn't gone thru according to Bill Simmons:


http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9521103/the-nba-midnight-run-part-1

"Hey, nothing personal, Jack, but f--- off."

To Chris Paul, who basically told the Clippers that after they squashed the first incarnation of their Doc Rivers trade. Chris didn't like that. He let them know he was heading to Houston to team up with Dwight. And he wasn't kidding. For about 36 hours, Morey probably felt like all 11 guys in Ocean's Eleven. You know what happened next: The Clippers blinked, the Doc trade got revived and finished, and the Clippers were offering Chris 107 million reasons to play for him. Crisis averted. The lesson, as always: Chris Paul runs the Clippers.
MassHysteria
Profile Joined October 2010
United States3678 Posts
July 31 2013 19:57 GMT
#1217
Meh, all that really shows me is how much smarter Chris Paul is than Dwight Howard =P ...He just knew he had all the leverage and used it to get the coach he wanted. One that would make his whole team better (non-selfish way).

Paul gets it so much that I would question if those claims are even wholly true. I wouldn't question that he said that to the Clippers organization. But I would question how serious he was about it. It's like if Dwight Howard said it, there was no question it is what he meant. But CP3 might have said it just to bluff Sterling, knowing he will really only be in this position once in his career.

Once again, what is surprising about this year's Clippers and the Doc Rivers trade is how much Donald Sterling is willing to spend on what seems like a contending team. But even considering this, Sterling deserves no credit for putting this Clippers team together.

All he did was draft Blake Griffin, which every owner in his position would have done. And then CP3 pretty much fell into his lap (thanks to Stern pretty much making it the only destination possible). He gets no credit for giving them the max-contract b/c any owner would do that. There was just pretty much no way he could screw this up, even after letting Olshey leave to go to Portland.

Only way he could have screwed this up is if he pulled something like the Elton Brand and Baron Davis thing he did years ago. For those who don't know the story, he persuaded Brand to take a paycut so they could sign Davis with excuses like they didn't have enough money, etc. Then Brand found out it was all baloney, got mad, let Davis sign and booked it to Chicago.
"Just ban all the J's...even jinklejoes" --unnamed source
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 31 2013 20:56 GMT
#1218
[image loading]
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
July 31 2013 21:00 GMT
#1219
On August 01 2013 04:57 MassHysteria wrote:
Meh, all that really shows me is how much smarter Chris Paul is than Dwight Howard =P ...He just knew he had all the leverage and used it to get the coach he wanted. One that would make his whole team better (non-selfish way).

Paul gets it so much that I would question if those claims are even wholly true. I wouldn't question that he said that to the Clippers organization. But I would question how serious he was about it. It's like if Dwight Howard said it, there was no question it is what he meant. But CP3 might have said it just to bluff Sterling, knowing he will really only be in this position once in his career.

Once again, what is surprising about this year's Clippers and the Doc Rivers trade is how much Donald Sterling is willing to spend on what seems like a contending team. But even considering this, Sterling deserves no credit for putting this Clippers team together.

All he did was draft Blake Griffin, which every owner in his position would have done. And then CP3 pretty much fell into his lap (thanks to Stern pretty much making it the only destination possible). He gets no credit for giving them the max-contract b/c any owner would do that. There was just pretty much no way he could screw this up, even after letting Olshey leave to go to Portland.

Only way he could have screwed this up is if he pulled something like the Elton Brand and Baron Davis thing he did years ago. For those who don't know the story, he persuaded Brand to take a paycut so they could sign Davis with excuses like they didn't have enough money, etc. Then Brand found out it was all baloney, got mad, let Davis sign and booked it to Chicago.


Good god I remember that debacle. The entire internet nearly raged at how that went down.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
DystopiaX
Profile Joined October 2010
United States16236 Posts
July 31 2013 22:55 GMT
#1220
On August 01 2013 04:57 MassHysteria wrote:
Meh, all that really shows me is how much smarter Chris Paul is than Dwight Howard =P ...He just knew he had all the leverage and used it to get the coach he wanted. One that would make his whole team better (non-selfish way).

Paul gets it so much that I would question if those claims are even wholly true. I wouldn't question that he said that to the Clippers organization. But I would question how serious he was about it. It's like if Dwight Howard said it, there was no question it is what he meant. But CP3 might have said it just to bluff Sterling, knowing he will really only be in this position once in his career.

Once again, what is surprising about this year's Clippers and the Doc Rivers trade is how much Donald Sterling is willing to spend on what seems like a contending team. But even considering this, Sterling deserves no credit for putting this Clippers team together.

All he did was draft Blake Griffin, which every owner in his position would have done. And then CP3 pretty much fell into his lap (thanks to Stern pretty much making it the only destination possible). He gets no credit for giving them the max-contract b/c any owner would do that. There was just pretty much no way he could screw this up, even after letting Olshey leave to go to Portland.

Only way he could have screwed this up is if he pulled something like the Elton Brand and Baron Davis thing he did years ago. For those who don't know the story, he persuaded Brand to take a paycut so they could sign Davis with excuses like they didn't have enough money, etc. Then Brand found out it was all baloney, got mad, let Davis sign and booked it to Chicago.

The difference is I think that D12 had much more issues than just who the coach was. Conflict with Kobe, and even things like the amount of attention his performance was getting that couldn't really be fixed by the Lakers org anyway.

A CP3/Harden/D12 Rockets team would be hella scary, wish that trade would have been pulled off.
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