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On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.
Ya I current have that same mindset as well as I’m on the fence with zvp
I watch Serral get 0-2ed and think toss might be a bit favored.
But then I just watched Harstem vs lambo and think hmmm.
I basically think it’s more Serral play style since he always like to play a late macro game. And that’s where the game starts to fall apart for him. Currently late game wise I think toss is favoured.
We already saw in dreamhack Dallas how Serral struggled against classic (who also loves to play macro games)
I think Zergs need to mix in a few timing committee attacks / pushes thwt will either wins the game or gives him a big enough advantage into the late game.
If everyone just sits back and macro. I think the top tosses can slowly pick the Zergs apart
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Serral tried to switch up with a timing attack in game 1, the same one that killed Showtime straight up, but Zoun defended it well enough. And in both game Serral try to sneak a Spire but got scouted both times and Zoun put in an extra Stargate immediately with Cannon/Battery to prepare for it. So, to be fair to Serral, he didnt just sit back and done nothing, he tried but Zoun was simply on point.
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United States33505 Posts
Not to look past Ryung, but ShoWTimE does seem to have an adv now since him beating Reynor is more probable than SKillous or Lambo beating Serral.
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If I understand the bracket correctly, in terms of EWC qualification:
- Showtime vs Ryung
- Skillous vs Lambo
And then whoever advances further will get the spot?
But if they both get knocked out at the same time, they would have to play-off for the spot?
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I lost count of how many Nydus Worms Reynor built in the third game against Clem, but they were the main reason he lost. So many resources wasted!
That said, I think many Terrans would've fallen apart under such relentless pressure, whereas Clem stayed strong.
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United States33505 Posts
On June 07 2025 01:15 Azzur wrote:
If I understand the bracket correctly, in terms of EWC qualification:
- Showtime vs Ryung
- Skillous vs Lambo
And then whoever advances further will get the spot?
But if they both get knocked out at the same time, they would have to play-off for the spot?
Yeah, that's my understanding of it.
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What Clem did was simply turtling on Libs Mines and Ghost, and that give him time to react better to the Nydus inside of his base. And Reynor refusal to make Corruptor to deal with Mass Libs cost him ton of resource as well, he could only rely on Viper which in turn get EMP/sniped by Ghost was very costly.
If Clem was moving out and trying to fight while getting hit with runby and Nydus, the game would have been over.
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Here is the qualification regulation from wikipedia:
In case of the winner being already qualified, the slot is awarded to the "next-not-already-qualified-player": if more than one player is eligible, Bo5 tie-breaking match(es) are to be played.
So, if Serral and Reynor wins their next match (which will be quite possible), it'll be a bo5 match between the winners of Showtime vs Ryung and Skillous vs Lambo to determine the EWC spot!
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Would be great to see Ryung make it, though it does seem like a stretch.
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On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction.
I haven't seen this series yet, but from his losses vs Classic and some vs MaxPax I feel that the current patch is bad for Serral specifically.
Serral loves to play reactive macro into lategame win condition and doesn't like taking risks that much. And right now PvZ lategame is clearly Protoss favored so Serral's preferred playstyle is just inferior currently.
Is this a problem that needs to be fixed? I'm not sure. I don't think Zerg has a right to have a win condition in lategame.
Maru is another player who loves to turtle to lategame but he realized that playing passive as terran is just a no no in the current metagame, so he figured out ways to kill his opponents early which won him DH Dallas.
Maybe Serral finally feels the limitations of his playstyle and needs to adapt if he wants to succeed. If he has one weakness it's his unwillingness to take risks and in the current metagame it seems like it's finally being exposed.
I mean, against Classic right after 2 extremely difficult super-lategames he chose to go for turtle to lategame strat in the next game as well, that just doesn't seem like the optimal approach.
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On June 07 2025 01:26 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. I haven't seen this series yet, but from his losses vs Classic and some vs MaxPax I feel that the current patch is bad for Serral specifically. Serral loves to play reactive macro into lategame win condition and doesn't like taking risks that much. And right now PvZ lategame is clearly Protoss favored so Serral's preferred playstyle is just inferior currently. Is this a problem that needs to be fixed? I'm not sure. I don't think Zerg has a right to have a win condition in lategame. Maru is another player who loves to turtle to lategame but he realized that playing passive as terran is just a no no in the current metagame, so he figured out ways to kill his opponents early which won him DH Dallas. Maybe Serral finally feels the limitations of his playstyle and needs to adapt if he wants to succeed. If he has one weakness it's his unwillingness to take risks and in the current metagame it seems like it's finally being exposed. I mean, against Classic right after 2 extremely difficult super-lategames he chose to go for turtle to lategame strat in the next game as well, that just doesn't seem like the optimal approach.
And as an added benefit, if Zergs do start really avoiding lategame, tournaments will get a lot more fun.
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On June 07 2025 01:16 MJG wrote:
I lost count of how many Nydus Worms Reynor built in the third game against Clem, but they were the main reason he lost. So many resources wasted!
Yeah, it's an important factor. I also think that's the main risk of Reynor's ZvP style compared to Serral's. While Serral aims to trade more efficiently over time, Reynor attempts to overwhelm the protoss with neverending nydus works and multi-pronged attacks, which can work, but if the protoss turtles tight and holds it together, Reynor is just behind on resources. It seemed to me that Reynor's ZvP wins were all very close in this regard. Then again, since the efficiency-based style is now even enormously difficult to pull off even for Serral, it's hard to see what if any approach is (more) viable in the long term.
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On June 07 2025 01:26 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. I don't think Zerg has a right to have a win condition in lategame.
You probably just worded this poorly but very obviously Zerg does have the right for a win condition in lategame, just as every race should have a win condition in any stage of the game. If any race were altogether unable to win in a particular stage of the game, that would be the end of asymmetrical balance.
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On June 07 2025 01:36 Antithesis wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2025 01:16 MJG wrote:
I lost count of how many Nydus Worms Reynor built in the third game against Clem, but they were the main reason he lost. So many resources wasted! Yeah, it's an important factor. I also think that's the main risk of Reynor's ZvP style compared to Serral's. While Serral aims to trade more efficiently over time, Reynor attempts to overwhelm the protoss with neverending nydus works and multi-pronged attacks, which can work, but if the protoss turtles tight and holds it together, Reynor is just behind on resources. It seemed to me that Reynor's ZvP wins were all very close in this regard. Then again, since the efficiency-based style is now even enormously difficult to pull off even for Serral, it's hard to see what if any approach is (more) viable in the long term.
We're talking about ZvT here, in that matchup I think the efficiency approach is better than ever with the Ghost nerfs.
Still liked the nydus strat, against which 99% of players would have crumbled but Clem was just too on point here.
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On June 07 2025 01:44 Antithesis wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2025 01:26 Charoisaur wrote:On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. I don't think Zerg has a right to have a win condition in lategame. You probably just worded this poorly but very obviously Zerg does have the right for a win condition in lategame, just as every race should have a win condition in any stage of the game. If any race were altogether unable to win in a particular stage of the game, that would be the end of asymmetrical balance.
I think they meant that Zerg doesn't have the right to reach the late game and become unbeatable, which is how some previous patches have felt.
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On June 07 2025 01:44 Antithesis wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2025 01:26 Charoisaur wrote:On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. I don't think Zerg has a right to have a win condition in lategame. You probably just worded this poorly but very obviously Zerg does have the right for a win condition in lategame, just as every race should have a win condition in any stage of the game. If any race were altogether unable to win in a particular stage of the game, that would be the end of asymmetrical balance.
Well, I meant right for guaranteed win condition/auto win in lategame. Which Zerg tbh never had, only Serral.
Probably the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction right now.
Still I find it interesting to see how Serral adapts when he can't force a guaranteed win in lategame. Maru is called the fourth race because he finds ways to win even in unfavored metagames, can Serral too?
With his current approach at least, no
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On June 07 2025 01:50 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2025 01:44 Antithesis wrote:On June 07 2025 01:26 Charoisaur wrote:On June 06 2025 23:01 WombaT wrote:
I’m still unsure what I think of ZvP balance right now. I’m so used to Serral being basically invincible that it feels odd that even he is sometimes struggling.
Equally, that series he, especially in game 1 it felt he was making mistakes and oversights that 100% should cost you the game. Whether he forgot it, or chose not to get it, not having adrenal was a bad state of affairs.
If it wasn’t Serral, I’d probably not even be asking questions, but it is Serral and ZvP, which does make me wonder.
In previous metas, it felt like Serral either scouted well or read Protoss players like a book from intuition and Starsense and was basically invincible. Guys like Dark and Reynor were super scary in the matchup, but not quite as good at making those reads every time.
My old crude calculation was Serral > herO = other top ZvPers > Most other players. Now it feels way more volatile
Now I’m finding even Serral is making bad reads way more often. It could just be his current shape, but I think an alternative explanation is that current ZvP isn’t a matter of read and react, but read and cut a corner somewhere, or gamble a bit.
Make the right call and cut the right corner, and you can get Reynor stomping herO 3-0. Make the wrong ones and it’s a Serral 0-2 Zoun.
As I said I’m not sure at all, we’ve had a strange off season with not a huge amount to go off.
I think last patch was sorta decent for PvZ. Serral gonna Serral but it’s Serral ZvP, IMO the strongest matchup in SC2 history, and below that you had a lot of 50/50 matchups below him.
TvZ feels in a pretty decent spot, where Clem on form is invincible, Maru gets close but it’s pretty 50/50 with the rest of the field.
I think we basically had that in ZvP last patch, perhaps the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. I don't think Zerg has a right to have a win condition in lategame. You probably just worded this poorly but very obviously Zerg does have the right for a win condition in lategame, just as every race should have a win condition in any stage of the game. If any race were altogether unable to win in a particular stage of the game, that would be the end of asymmetrical balance. Well, I meant right for guaranteed win condition/auto win in lategame. Which Zerg tbh never had, only Serral. Probably the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction right now. Still I find it interesting to see how Serral adapts when he can't force a guaranteed win in lategame. Maru is called the fourth race because he finds ways to win even in unfavored metagames, can Serral too?
Yeah, agreed.
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Ryung should have never played a macro game PvT. He was ahead against Trigger, tried to play macro and then lost. So hes not beating Showtime with the same approach when they are on equal footing from early game.
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On June 06 2025 23:33 Tsubbi wrote:both zerg matchups are awful, since the patch the matchups hover around 55% winrate for p and t, one of the worst stretches in the games history
I don't know why we pretend like this isn't the case. But whatever, retribution is sweet or something. Watching zerg streams has been kind of hilarious (especially Reynor's), because you can hear their frustration during basically every game.
Also, is there a single phase of the game in ZvP now where zerg is actually favored or stronger? Yes, you can aim for mid-game timings or gamble/cut corners and end up with Reynor vs HerO on a given day, but good luck doing that enough times to win a full tournament without massive bracket luck. Energy overcharge with Oracles and HTs and Mothership abduct removal make every stage of the MU fraught.
But also, Serral definitely deserved to lose against Zoun, who just played better.
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My fellow Germans (well one of them) going to EWC! Love it
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EPT![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/a/yAkhnQL)
