EPTIEM Katowice 2024 - Page 56
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Vindicare605
United States16122 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26933 Posts
On February 11 2024 22:30 Nakajin wrote: I think HM can put a good fight. Cure and Byun, I don't see it. I guess you’re going back a while, so not super relevant to this meta but I recall HM basically always losing to Serral bar a tournament, and Cure beating him at least a few times. Hoping for a good series here and not too much cyclone wars. Maru with a few early errors by his standards, but he’s making some decent moves now | ||
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{Frozen}
16 Posts
herO wins GSL and DH Atlanta? Time to nerf disruptor purification nova and super battery. What happens? No protoss player has won a premier since. And then we nerf disruptors supply? So... Basically we've had 2 void ray nerfs, 2 battery nerfs (super and if not near nexus), 2 disruptor nerfs, DT attack delay after blink, and interceptor priority nerf. For... slightly faster forge upgrades, faster sentries (+2 seconds guardian shield let's go), slightly faster HTs, archon size, immortal barrier taking first hit, slightly cheaper shield upgrades, stasis ward vision, and tempest acceleration. So huge nerfs and almost inconsequential buffs. Disruptor and battery nerfs would be similar to increasing siege tank supply to 4, reducing their splash damage area, and decreasing medivac healing rate by 25%. I looked at the stats pre and post disruptor/super battery nerfs with 2022 DH Atlanta to 2023 Masters Main event. Feel free to correct if anything is incorrect. In the main events of DH Atlanta 2022 and Masters 2023, player skill is accounted for because all the top players are there except Maxpax (but he's not there in either event) and Reynor (in DH Atlanta 2022). Reynor not being there likely decreases ZvP winrates in 2022. However, he played a total of 2 ZvP games in Masters 2023; remove those from the data and everyone else important is still there. DH Masters Atlanta 2022 Main event ZvP - 45.6% PvT- 45.7% ESL SC2 Masters 2023 Summer Main event ZvP- 58.6% PvT- 33.3% Regional results DH Masters Atlanta 2022 Regionals ZvP - 46.8% PvT- 48.7% ESL SC2 Masters 2023 Summer: Regionals Statistics ZvP- 61.8% PvT- 42.5% Note, this is a total of 243 games before and after patch so this isn't your "Oh well clearly toss made a mistake in 1 game so they lost cuz lol bad protoss players." PvT DH Atlanta 2022 - 48.7% PvT Masters 2023 Summer- 42.5% Hypothesis, PvT winrates are the same pre and post patch, p1-p2 = 0. Assumptions- a bunch of shit is >5, which it is. phat = (x1+x2)/(n1+n2) = (76+37)/(156/87) = 0.465 Z = (p1-p2)/sqrt [phat*(1-phat) *(1/n1 + 1/n2)] = (48.7-42.5)/sqrt[0.465*(1-0.465)*(1/156+1/87)] = 6.2/sqrt 0.004453 = 92.91 At alpha = 0.01, the critical value is 2.58. Since Z > critical value, PvT winrates were significantly worse after the patch in these tournaments. ZvP went even more in favor of zerg after patch so obviously significant as well. This doesnt include the latest patch, but we can see the impact of super battery and disruptors nerfs. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16122 Posts
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lolfail9001
Russian Federation40190 Posts
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Vindicare605
United States16122 Posts
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Topin
Peru10119 Posts
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Poopi
France12927 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4267 Posts
On February 11 2024 09:29 Nebuchad wrote: It's extremely easy to understand why protoss loses, and a bunch of people have already said it here and elsewhere. Mistakes are way more punishing for protoss than they are for terran or zerg. Do you remember the last time you thought Serral made a big mistake? I think one time he lost to Maxpax by flying his entire corruptor force over Maxpax's army and losing them all, in like 2021 or something. By contrast, do you remember the last time Serral lost a costly unit when he didn't have to lose it? Probably not, but that happens a lot more often. It doesn't even register as a mistake because there's an understanding that as terran or zerg sometimes you'll lose some costly units, it's fine. If you're protoss, those types of interactions are amplified because just one of those mistakes, at a key point in the game, can very easily mean that you lose. And then after you lose, smart people will go "Oh yeah I see that he made this key mistake, clearly he is lacking in skill and his opponent is very deserving" and we end up in this current silly discussion. The situation is exactly the same in BW just not as extreme as it is in SC2. | ||
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Nakajin
Canada8990 Posts
On February 11 2024 22:47 Vindicare605 wrote: Maru is neglecting air control and opting to use GtA weapons instead. This is going to backfire. Cyclones are garbage in this situation. or.... Byun can just miscontrol the fight lol. They seems good to me  | ||
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Topin
Peru10119 Posts
didnt helpt that byun a-moved them on top of cyclons xD | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16122 Posts
On February 11 2024 22:50 Topin wrote: didnt helpt that byun a-moved them on top of cyclons xD Yea I wasn't expecting him to do that lol. If Byun is going to do that, then Cyclones are a terrific choice. Once that first battle was over, the choice of Cyclones meant that Maru could remax faster and Byun was trying to get BCs which take ages to build. | ||
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fastr
France902 Posts
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Nakajin
Canada8990 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26933 Posts
On February 11 2024 22:52 fastr wrote: 15 cyclones in the production tab, is this what the balance council intended? IIRC at least all the publicly known members of said council were all like ‘this ain’t it’ re the cyclone change. I don’t have a huge issue with them in lategame alongside actual mech, it’s their massability in early/midgame that sucks (and was entirely predictable with the patch) If you had to manually target lock-ons and you couldn’t just move-click and infinitely kite things I’d have way less issue with the unit, and it could mitigate all sorts of annoyances. | ||
Mizenhauer
United States1927 Posts
On February 11 2024 22:52 fastr wrote: 15 cyclones in the production tab, is this what the balance council intended? another lotv unit that is either dogshit or way too good. is this what blizz intended? | ||
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Topin
Peru10119 Posts
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ekojs
16 Posts
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Azzur
Australia6267 Posts
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Poopi
France12927 Posts
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