EPT
On February 09 2024 16:36 tigera6 wrote:
Getting a 25% chance of an event for 4 times in a row is around 0.4%. And if you still say that means it COULD happen, then yes, you are right, it could although I dont expect it to happen more than once or twice in the history of the IEM Katowice.
Also, the last couple times when this happen IIRC was IEM 2022, we had Maru #1 overall seed the same group with Clem (#1 in tier 2), Raynor (#1 in tier 3), Scarlett (#1 in tier 4), Zoun (#3 in tier 5) and Byun (#1 in tier 6).
Also, the IEM before that, we had TY (#1 overall) get into the same group with Maru (#1 in tier 2), Clem (#1 in tier 3), Solar (#3 in tier 4), Showtime (#1 in tier 5), and Byun (#1 in tier 6). So yes, these group of death kinda happen quite often base on players overall seeding.
Getting a 25% chance of an event for 4 times in a row is around 0.4%. And if you still say that means it COULD happen, then yes, you are right, it could although I dont expect it to happen more than once or twice in the history of the IEM Katowice.
Also, the last couple times when this happen IIRC was IEM 2022, we had Maru #1 overall seed the same group with Clem (#1 in tier 2), Raynor (#1 in tier 3), Scarlett (#1 in tier 4), Zoun (#3 in tier 5) and Byun (#1 in tier 6).
Also, the IEM before that, we had TY (#1 overall) get into the same group with Maru (#1 in tier 2), Clem (#1 in tier 3), Solar (#3 in tier 4), Showtime (#1 in tier 5), and Byun (#1 in tier 6). So yes, these group of death kinda happen quite often base on players overall seeding.
I am a bit too lazy (and kinda trying to get work done before the start of the stream so the day isn't completely wasted on enjoying the games
) to do the math atm, but I am pretty sure the odds of Serral (usually #1 seed or at worst #3 these last few years) NOT being in a group of death are not 25%. It's probably more like 90% or so ; firstly because he has a good seed so unless a top player underperforms the whole year (like herO did), there is a pretty low chance of a group of death happening in the first place. Secondly because Serral is so strong that most groups will be perceived as "easy" for him, which is expected because the other top top players are usually seeded in the other groups.Therefore which group is "easiest" is kinda subjective and outside of group D, the other groups are of similar difficulty for Serral. I assume it's the same for every other year, so the odds are like (if there is a group of death every year, even for Serral): 75% chances of NOT being in the group of death, because every group other than the hypothetical group of death is of same difficulty for Serral, 25% chances of being in the group of death. 0.75^4 is roughly 31%, so Serral should have been put into the group of death at least once in 4 years roughly with 69% odds.
It's not particularly incredible odds either way.
