EPTIEM Katowice 2024 - Page 13
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swarminfestor
Malaysia2449 Posts
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Blargh
United States2103 Posts
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yezzir88
31 Posts
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tigera6
3455 Posts
Group A looks like its a runaway for Solar, HM looking good but Scarlett could make a push for 2nd/3rd place, Gumiho need to also raise his level back up. Group B is in chaos with all the TvT matchup coming. Oliveira are up 2-0 but he has the toughest schedule left, but he probably will lock it down if he beat Clem today. Group C has been the most predictable one so far, the only question is which Protoss will advance unless Kelazhur pulling off some great play today. Group D is also in complete chaos but Dark probably would make it if he 2-0 Cyan today, Reynor would also have to play his S-game to keep the hope alive. | ||
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JJH777
United States4415 Posts
On February 09 2024 14:03 yezzir88 wrote: Serral has never gotten a group of death in a premier event of significance. I wonder why His group draw luck is utterly absurd. The luckiest top player at group draws in SC2 history for sure. The only time I remember him getting something resembling a group of death was Blizzcon 2019 but Zerg was so broken then that any group with only 1 Zerg was really only a group of death for the other players. He's gotten mid difficulty groups a few times like last years Kato but most of the time he's in the easiest or second easiest group at worst. | ||
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yezzir88
31 Posts
On February 09 2024 14:36 JJH777 wrote: His group draw luck is utterly absurd. The luckiest top player at group draws in SC2 history for sure. The only time I remember him getting something resembling a group of death was Blizzcon 2019 but Zerg was so broken then that any group with only 1 Zerg was really only a group of death for the other players. He's gotten mid difficulty groups a few times like last years Kato but most of the time he's in the easiest or second easiest group at worst. Must just be a coincidence. I'm sure he's just been lucky for years straight. What luck. | ||
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Neptuneajax
Australia206 Posts
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Luolis
Finland7157 Posts
On February 09 2024 14:53 yezzir88 wrote: Must just be a coincidence. I'm sure he's just been lucky for years straight. What luck. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that hes been #1 seed for the last few years :D | ||
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tigera6
3455 Posts
On February 09 2024 15:35 Luolis wrote: I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that hes been #1 seed for the last few years :D Except it supposed to be random group draw, being No.1 seed should not give him the easiest opponent while No.3 seed (Dark) got the toughest. | ||
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Kreuger
Sweden805 Posts
On February 09 2024 15:52 tigera6 wrote: Except it supposed to be random group draw, being No.1 seed should not give him the easiest opponent while No.3 seed (Dark) got the toughest. Well. If it is random, isnt that something that could happen? | ||
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Seacow
Sweden99 Posts
Except it supposed to be random group draw According to... you? The pros themselves? TL.net poll results? | ||
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tigera6
3455 Posts
On February 09 2024 15:59 Seacow wrote: According to... you? The pros themselves? TL.net poll results? Everybody I asked gave me that answer, be it caster, streamer or people on TL. So you are telling there is actually a non-random assignment methodology and that is? On February 09 2024 15:58 Kreuger wrote: Well. If it is random, isnt that something that could happen? Yes, we just need to know what the likelihood for that, still doesnt mean there is a conspiracy though, just a top player being luck with the draw in several years in a row. Would be interesting to look that up. | ||
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Balnazza
Germany1254 Posts
On February 09 2024 14:03 yezzir88 wrote: Serral has never gotten a group of death in a premier event of significance. I wonder why It is extremly rare for one of the "if they don't win it is a dissappointement"-type of players to get a "Group of Death". Worst case you usually only get one other top player (which happened to Serral in the past). Group D is just a really big coincidence that doesn't particular happen every year. And if you really just roll a D4 six times...you can get results like this, easily. On February 09 2024 15:27 Neptuneajax wrote: Are you insinuating something? Because if you are please back that up with with something factual. It's just the next episode of "ESL is helping the EU boys *hurrdurr*". Source: "No one can beat koreans at SC2 in any shape or form, so it is either manipulation, cheating and/or balance, dude trust me!" And while I wish ESL would do the seeding a bit more carefully (aka. truely seed through points only, no draw) or would atleast finally do draw-shows...it could get worse. In the next CS2 Major, higher ranked teams actually get punished for that (aka. the 1st seed plays against the 8th seed, 2nd seed vs. 9th etc.) | ||
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tigera6
3455 Posts
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Glorfindelio
221 Posts
On February 09 2024 14:03 yezzir88 wrote: Serral has never gotten a group of death in a premier event of significance. I wonder why Pretty weird how desperate you seem to discredit the man, and then you'd pick this to try. Probably the player, along with Maru, least affected ever by group draw. I'm trying to think of any tournament where he's bombed out in the group stages, premier event or not. I'm sure it's happened, but I honesty can't remember. | ||
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tigera6
3455 Posts
On February 09 2024 16:19 Balnazza wrote: It is extremly rare for one of the "if they don't win it is a dissappointement"-type of players to get a "Group of Death". Worst case you usually only get one other top player (which happened to Serral in the past). Group D is just a really big coincidence that doesn't particular happen every year. And if you really just roll a D4 six times...you can get results like this, easily. It's just the next episode of "ESL is helping the EU boys *hurrdurr*". Source: "No one can beat koreans at SC2 in any shape or form, so it is either manipulation, cheating and/or balance, dude trust me!" And while I wish ESL would do the seeding a bit more carefully (aka. truely seed through points only, no draw) or would atleast finally do draw-shows...it could get worse. In the next CS2 Major, higher ranked teams actually get punished for that (aka. the 1st seed plays against the 8th seed, 2nd seed vs. 9th etc.) Getting a 25% chance of an event for 4 times in a row is around 0.4%. And if you still say that means it COULD happen, then yes, you are right, it could although I dont expect it to happen more than once or twice in the history of the IEM Katowice. Also, the last couple times when this happen IIRC was IEM 2022, we had Maru #1 overall seed the same group with Clem (#1 in tier 2), Raynor (#1 in tier 3), Scarlett (#1 in tier 4), Zoun (#3 in tier 5) and Byun (#1 in tier 6). Also, the IEM before that, we had TY (#1 overall) get into the same group with Maru (#1 in tier 2), Clem (#1 in tier 3), Solar (#3 in tier 4), Showtime (#1 in tier 5), and Byun (#1 in tier 6). So yes, these group of death kinda happen quite often base on players overall seeding. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7040 Posts
Not saying there is foul play. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On February 09 2024 16:36 tigera6 wrote: Getting a 25% chance of an event for 4 times in a row is around 0.4%. And if you still say that means it COULD happen, then yes, you are right, it could although I dont expect it to happen more than once or twice in the history of the IEM Katowice. Also, the last couple times when this happen IIRC was IEM 2022, we had Maru #1 overall seed the same group with Clem (#1 in tier 2), Raynor (#1 in tier 3), Scarlett (#1 in tier 4), Zoun (#3 in tier 5) and Byun (#1 in tier 6). Also, the IEM before that, we had TY (#1 overall) get into the same group with Maru (#1 in tier 2), Clem (#1 in tier 3), Solar (#3 in tier 4), Showtime (#1 in tier 5), and Byun (#1 in tier 6). So yes, these group of death kinda happen quite often base on players overall seeding. I’d agree that how groups are seeded leaves a lot to be desired, and have been a bit wonky at times. And appreciate the examples, it is worth actually checking, sometimes perception and recall can be a tad inaccurate, scanning a few Katowices and the group draws don’t seem all that great, with the caveat that I’m looking the names, and their reputation may outweigh what kind of shape they were in at that time. It’s just people insinuating that it’s somehow deliberate for Serral’s advantage pushes it far. Especially now Reynor and Clem are in contention for these big tournaments, versus just Serral of the foreign contingent. So the ‘foreign fix’ theory makes even less sense if it’s just Serral who’s a beneficiary. I mean ultimately if you’re not making it out of groups, you’re unlikely to make it through the playoff bracket. And if other groups are weaker, in theory you can get a slightly easier if you’re say, coming out of the Group of Death into the bracket versus those who emerged from easier groups. So you’re maybe trading a few tougher matches in groups, but you might get an easier tie or two in playoffs. Just rescanning the groups, you make one player swap from C/D into A/B and they’re pretty damn even, they’re not all that far off. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16118 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On February 09 2024 19:26 Harris1st wrote: IMO if anything these group draws are not to protect Serral, but to protect other top players from him Not saying there is foul play. Aye. If I was to rig a draw I’d: 1. Try to keep the big boys apart for the business end. 2. Have at least one spicy group so that phase of the competition isn’t a procession and keeps eyes on it. I am not accusing ESL, or subsequently UEFA who I’m about to mention of doing this mind. Champions League groups, the majority it’s 100% clear who’s advancing with 2 clear big boys, and unless a team like Man United shit the bed, the groups are almost all processional. Then Inter/Dortmund kept getting drawn together with one of Real Madrid (maybe more than once), and Barcelona one time. The Inter fan in me did consider us unlucky to keep being in groups with 3 contenders, but as a neutral observer it was great to have at least one real competitive group | ||
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