On October 24 2012 18:43 TheBB wrote: Projections after Byun vs Parting:
Are you updating the ELOs you use for match prediction after each match? I only ask because your numbers show the probability of Byun advancing changing depending on the result of Trap v Shine, whereas my numbers do not.
No, I don't. But I those probabilities can change depending on other matches. (If a strong player loses and you are in the lead, the probability that you will qualify should increase — in your case with coinflip matches it shouldn't matter (in this case)). Another thing is that I take like 100,000 samples instead of calculating exact probabilities... so some uncertainty on the order of 0.1% or so should be expected from computation to computation.
For example, it is obviously wrong that Byun's probability to qualify is higher after either result in Shine vs Trap than it was before, but that's purely due to the chance in the sampling.
On October 24 2012 18:43 Netsky wrote: Could a Protoss player explain Parting's play? I've seen the phoenix response to the early gas (although it's uncommon), but usually the transition is into phoenix/colo (i.e. continue to make more than 4 phoenixes). It just seemed really wonky compared to the usual quick 3 nexus into mass gateway units with storm into colo in the late-mid game that we often see from him on larger maps.
he thought he would crush hellion-marine-drop/ or some other aggressive play from Byun, but Byun probably noticed something was fishy, just decided to not waste his troops and defended while building 3 CC. PartinG eventually had to take his own exp and catch up, but was behind already.
Thanks Wax. Yeah, it definitely shuts down drop/banshee play and I guess Parting had no way of knowing that Byun didn't build his starport at the usual timing if he was to go for a hellion drop/banshee play. Byun started to scout and skipped the starport, going straight in his 2nd CC without getting any additional info. from the hellions so he was never going to be aggressive with starport tech.
GSL Season 5 Up & Down Matches Shine (0-0) vs Trap (0-0) Map: Cloud Kingdom
0:00 Shine spawns in the top right Trap spawns in the bottom left
2:00 pool first for Shine Nexus first for Trap Hatch for Shine forge for Trap
3:00 Gateway for Trap at the choke cannon for Trap
4:00 3rd base for Shine double gas for Trap Cybernetics core for Trap 3rd base of Shine is scouted by a probe
5:00 +1 attack started for Trap
6:00 double gas for Shine Trap goes up to 4 gas Robo started for Trap
7:00 Lair started for Shine in the natural Twilight council started for Trap Trap kills both scouting overlords before they see much Roach warren started for Shine ling speed started for Shine 2 more gas for Shine evo chamber for Shine 3 more gates for Trap
8:00 +2 attack started for Trap macro hatch in the natural for Shine blink research started for Trap Roach speed started for Shine +1 missile attacks started for Shine first observer is out for Trap and reaches Shine's base
9:00 infestation pit started for Shine immortal production started for Trap 3rd base started for Trap ling scouts the 3rd base 2 more gates added on for Trap
10:00 Pathogen glands started for Shine 4th base started for Shine Robotics Bay on the way for Trap +3 attack started for Trap infestor production begins
11:00 overlord speed started for Shine 2 more gates for Trap +1 melee started for Shine burrow half way done for Shine
12:00 Spire started for Shine 1st colossus out Extended thermal lance research begins for Trap 2nd colossus started +1 carapace started for Shine 5th base started for Shine in the top left Hive started for Shine
13:00 Shine attacks into the 3rd of Trap forcefields go down leading to Shine backing off +1 armor started for Trap
On October 24 2012 18:47 Too_MuchZerg wrote: hah i always forgot my logins to gomtv site (unless i use always remember) and now I cant register new account unless twitter or facebook. I guess no gomtv anymore for me
err..use the forget password option?
um I have made like 12 accounts using free spam email for just to sign up. Cant remember single one
EPT
It frustrates me to no end...
Shine (0-0) vs 
Trap (0-0)
