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Standard LR rules apply: No balance whining, no KeSPA vs. GomTV inciting, no excessive derailing ESPECIALLY when games are on. This is not a thread for you to argue with other people. | ||
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On October 09 2012 03:16 CosmicSpiral wrote: How much influence did the matchup statistics have on this analysis? I used an average between general Elo and matchup-specific Elo as an "actual" Elo used for the probabilities. I can think of several other ways to do this, but it's not clear at all which is best. | ||
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how2TL
1197 Posts
I have no idea why GSL needs each season to be done so quickly. No hype at all when a season starts so frequently and ends so quickly. | ||
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Phobbers
773 Posts
On October 09 2012 04:10 how2TL wrote: Both matchups are on the same day? I have no idea why GSL needs each season to be done so quickly. No hype at all when a season starts so frequently and ends so quickly. I believe they actually have a pretty packed schedule for the rest of the year. I recall someone mentioning it when this season had started so quick after season 3. | ||
Fionn
United States23455 Posts
On October 09 2012 04:10 how2TL wrote: Both matchups are on the same day? I have no idea why GSL needs each season to be done so quickly. No hype at all when a season starts so frequently and ends so quickly. ...The semifinals have been on the same day forever. What. | ||
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Luepert
United States1934 Posts
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ColtraneL
France248 Posts
On October 09 2012 03:13 TheBB wrote: They're based on the Elo ratings. They, in turn, are based on performance in SC2 games only (not BW). Whether the games come from Bo5s or Bo3s or are standalone doesn't matter, they're weighted equally. In Rain's case, that's 60 games. Ok you did your maths this way. I don't think you can quite give the same value to games in a BO1 or BO3 series than games from a BO5/BO7 serie in those statistics. You basically give the same weight to games that are played in completely different situation. And yet again you need to mention the size of the sample, because except if you took only Mvp's 60 last games, you compare 316 games played over almost two years to the 60 games of Rain, that doesn't seem really meaningful to me. | ||
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Andre
Slovenia3523 Posts
He already has four, and even beating that is an insane feat. gogo 5th! | ||
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Zenbrez
Canada5973 Posts
Also, anybody else expecting Mvp to be cheesy vs Rain? | ||
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TheBB
Switzerland5133 Posts
On October 09 2012 04:23 ColtraneL wrote: Ok you did your maths this way. I don't think you can quite give the same value to games in a BO1 or BO3 series than games from a BO5/BO7 serie in those statistics. You basically give the same weight to games that are played in completely different situation. And yet again you need to mention the size of the sample, because except if you took only Mvp's 60 last games, you compare 316 games played over almost two years to the 60 games of Rain, that doesn't seem really meaningful to me. Well, uh, the sample size isn't that relevant. Elo ratings adjust pretty quickly, old games don't have much of an impact. As much as I would like to try to weigh different games differently, (a) it's not clear how to do it, and (b) I don't have the data anyway, and (c) Elo ratings have worked well like they are for several decades, let's not fix things that aren't broken. | ||
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Tinuss
Netherlands9 Posts
thanks Grubby! | ||
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ACrow
Germany6583 Posts
Even though my beloved Hero has been eliminated, I'm still so hyped for this. Rooting for MVP to take his 5th championship and stopping the unstoppable force that is Rain. | ||
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ch33psh33p
7650 Posts
They said the same thing about everyone before him. Mvp is going to crush this. | ||
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JohnAdams
United States111 Posts
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HaXXspetten
Sweden15718 Posts
I will be in a test from 11:00 am to 15:00. I will have an essay to write in the evening so I won't have time to catch the vods. On thursday I could watch anything and everything whenever. WHY DID YOU HAVE TO CHANGE THE SCHEDULE GOD DAMMIT =FHFsdHFoiådsfhjåosdfokp | ||
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Fueled
United States1610 Posts
On October 09 2012 05:12 JohnAdams wrote: So is this on the 10th or the 11th (in US time)? The 10th | ||
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kratos-23
303 Posts
On October 09 2012 05:12 JohnAdams wrote: So is this on the 10th or the 11th (in US time)? on liquipedia it's 10th and in thread it's 11th. i was confused too. but the schedule on gomtv.net says 10th. so i think the 10th is correct. | ||
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ColtraneL
France248 Posts
On October 09 2012 04:46 TheBB wrote: Well, uh, the sample size isn't that relevant. Elo ratings adjust pretty quickly, old games don't have much of an impact. As much as I would like to try to weigh different games differently, (a) it's not clear how to do it, and (b) I don't have the data anyway, and (c) Elo ratings have worked well like they are for several decades, let's not fix things that aren't broken. I'm sorry, I misunderstood the way you used the TLPD to calculate those numbers. But still, Mvp usually ignores Elo ratings as we've seen in GSL S2. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
if he does manage to find said approach, it then turns on whether rain can adjust fast enough. if he does not, he might lose the series and perhaps even by more than 2 games. however, if he does adjust, he will win. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On October 09 2012 04:20 Luepert wrote: IM happy beat rain, MVP just has to talk with happy. If Rain 3-0's MVP I'll be super pissed. I'll just skulkfully watch the scene untill rain falls into obscurity and MVP still gets GSL code S round of 16 in his slumps like I did with Bomber and MMA. rain has been learning between the happy games and what he is now. he lost to curious badly in WCS then stomped him a few weeks later. | ||
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whirlpool
2788 Posts
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