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Standard LR rules apply: No balance whining, no KeSPA vs. GomTV inciting, no excessive derailing ESPECIALLY when games are on. This is not a thread for you to argue with other people. |
im conflicted here =(
love both players!
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This is the first time ever i'm going to root for mvp before he's actually playing the match.
Life vs taeja is very hard for me. My favourite terran is going up against one of my favourite zergs. I think i'll root for taeja, but not sure yet, though.
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If Rain can just survive all-ins, then he will wear down MVP as the series drags on.
Of course, Parting tried this very thing...
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i expect mvp to do a lot of early game aggression, i hope sun gets ready for it.
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Man... MVP seems like such an underdog because of his wrists but not one has such tricky builds as he does... I find this is my first time full on cheering him in ages in a semifinal :D
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On October 09 2012 03:27 Doubting wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2012 19:08 Aquila- wrote:
People, when will you finally understand it? Mvp doesn't lose. Ever.
Mvp 3-2 Rain
Taeja 3-1 Life Namma disagrees
That never happened.
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On October 09 2012 05:19 ColtraneL wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 04:46 TheBB wrote:On October 09 2012 04:23 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 03:13 TheBB wrote:On October 09 2012 02:46 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 00:58 TheBB wrote:I had some fun today. Disappointingly, this forum doesn't have a monospace environment (that I know of), so my beautiful formatting is lost. (Or, I have to work to prettify it.) Probabilities are based on the Elo ratings from TLPD, where equal weight was given to the total Elo and the matchup-specific Elo. It's not clear which weighing would yield the most accurate predictions. Taeja, Life and Rain are top three in overall Elo. That makes Taeja vs. Life essentially the highest rated match possible at the moment. How often has it happened that the two Elo leaders met in a match while they were Elo leaders, and a best of five at that? + Show Spoiler +Yes, it's "Elo", not "ELO". Anyway: Rain vs. MvpRain wins 3-0: 19.079% 3-1: 24.287% 3-2: 20.610% Total: 63.976% Mvp wins 3-0: 7.639% 3-1: 13.194% 3-2: 15.191% Total: 36.024% Most likely winner: Rain (63.976%) Most likely outcome: Rain 3-1 Mvp (24.287%) Taeja vs LifeTaeja wins 3-0: 22.514% 3-1: 26.453% 3-2: 20.721% Total: 69.688% Life wins 3-0: 6.008% 3-1: 10.964% 3-2: 13.340% Total: 30.312% Most likely winner: Taeja (69.688%) Most likely outcome: Taeja 3-1 Life (26.453%) You should precise the samples and on what they are based, because I suppose you're not using Rain's BO5 results in SC2 to do this because he only played two of them. Is it from broodwar? They're based on the Elo ratings. They, in turn, are based on performance in SC2 games only (not BW). Whether the games come from Bo5s or Bo3s or are standalone doesn't matter, they're weighted equally. In Rain's case, that's 60 games. Ok you did your maths this way. I don't think you can quite give the same value to games in a BO1 or BO3 series than games from a BO5/BO7 serie in those statistics. You basically give the same weight to games that are played in completely different situation. And yet again you need to mention the size of the sample, because except if you took only Mvp's 60 last games, you compare 316 games played over almost two years to the 60 games of Rain, that doesn't seem really meaningful to me. Well, uh, the sample size isn't that relevant. Elo ratings adjust pretty quickly, old games don't have much of an impact. As much as I would like to try to weigh different games differently, (a) it's not clear how to do it, and (b) I don't have the data anyway, and (c) Elo ratings have worked well like they are for several decades, let's not fix things that aren't broken. I'm sorry, I misunderstood the way you used the TLPD to calculate those numbers. But still, Mvp usually ignores Elo ratings as we've seen in GSL S2.
ELO is just meaningless. I believe that Taeja was first in ELO before he had ever even been in Code S due to online tournaments. That's just ridiculous.
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On October 08 2012 11:31 Pandain wrote:
No nevermind, what the fadoodle Rain over MVP? You put Rain going 3-0 over MVP?
Only one way to find out..
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Austria24417 Posts
On October 09 2012 05:53 ES.Genie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 03:27 Doubting wrote:On October 08 2012 19:08 Aquila- wrote:
People, when will you finally understand it? Mvp doesn't lose. Ever.
Mvp 3-2 Rain
Taeja 3-1 Life Namma disagrees That never happened.
He did lose to Monchi but he's the next bonjwa so that's fine.
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MVP losing to rain 3-0? cmon grubby...
also taeja will destroy life easily, taeja wont tilt as badly as MKP did, and life hasn't had a straight up match against a top tier player YET.
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On October 09 2012 06:07 renaissanceMAN wrote:
MVP losing to rain 3-0? cmon grubby...
also taeja will destroy life easily, taeja wont tilt as badly as MKP did, and life hasn't had a straight up match against a top tier player YET.
Seed is clearly a bad player beeing the reigning champion and all...
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Grubby's predictions are 100% identical to mine.
Rain 3-0 MVP
Taeja 2-3 Life
Then I guess a 4-2 victory for Rain in the final.
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Remember that Mvp's very experienced in these high pressure situations. Even if he's down 0-2, he still has the willpower and mental strength to fight back until he wins.
Remember also that in this GSL, the only series Rain has won versus Terran have been short series, Bo1 or Bo3. He has never played a long series against a Terran before. What about Mvp? Well, you can just point towards GSL Season 2, where he beat PartinG, Naniwa, and Squirtle in long series.
Also remember that Mvp is confident. What does that say about this match? Mvp isn't the cocky type who goes around like PartinG. No, Mvp is extremely humble and his confidence stems from somewhere. If he's confident that he can win, we should be confident as well.
Finally, remember that this isn't the first time that someone has looked incredibly scary. Off the top of my head, I can remember MarineKing and DongRaeGu earlier in this year, Symbol, Squirtle, PartinG (near the beginning of the year), Life (right now), TaeJa (right now), etc. All of the incredibly scary players (except the current scary ones) have all met their match and have gone down, even when it looked like they were at the very top. No one has exerted dominance for an extended period of time...
That is, no one, except Mvp in his prime.
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On October 09 2012 05:56 JJH777 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 05:19 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 04:46 TheBB wrote:On October 09 2012 04:23 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 03:13 TheBB wrote:On October 09 2012 02:46 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 00:58 TheBB wrote:I had some fun today. Disappointingly, this forum doesn't have a monospace environment (that I know of), so my beautiful formatting is lost. (Or, I have to work to prettify it.) Probabilities are based on the Elo ratings from TLPD, where equal weight was given to the total Elo and the matchup-specific Elo. It's not clear which weighing would yield the most accurate predictions. Taeja, Life and Rain are top three in overall Elo. That makes Taeja vs. Life essentially the highest rated match possible at the moment. How often has it happened that the two Elo leaders met in a match while they were Elo leaders, and a best of five at that? + Show Spoiler +Yes, it's "Elo", not "ELO". Anyway: Rain vs. MvpRain wins 3-0: 19.079% 3-1: 24.287% 3-2: 20.610% Total: 63.976% Mvp wins 3-0: 7.639% 3-1: 13.194% 3-2: 15.191% Total: 36.024% Most likely winner: Rain (63.976%) Most likely outcome: Rain 3-1 Mvp (24.287%) Taeja vs LifeTaeja wins 3-0: 22.514% 3-1: 26.453% 3-2: 20.721% Total: 69.688% Life wins 3-0: 6.008% 3-1: 10.964% 3-2: 13.340% Total: 30.312% Most likely winner: Taeja (69.688%) Most likely outcome: Taeja 3-1 Life (26.453%) You should precise the samples and on what they are based, because I suppose you're not using Rain's BO5 results in SC2 to do this because he only played two of them. Is it from broodwar? They're based on the Elo ratings. They, in turn, are based on performance in SC2 games only (not BW). Whether the games come from Bo5s or Bo3s or are standalone doesn't matter, they're weighted equally. In Rain's case, that's 60 games. Ok you did your maths this way. I don't think you can quite give the same value to games in a BO1 or BO3 series than games from a BO5/BO7 serie in those statistics. You basically give the same weight to games that are played in completely different situation. And yet again you need to mention the size of the sample, because except if you took only Mvp's 60 last games, you compare 316 games played over almost two years to the 60 games of Rain, that doesn't seem really meaningful to me. Well, uh, the sample size isn't that relevant. Elo ratings adjust pretty quickly, old games don't have much of an impact. As much as I would like to try to weigh different games differently, (a) it's not clear how to do it, and (b) I don't have the data anyway, and (c) Elo ratings have worked well like they are for several decades, let's not fix things that aren't broken. I'm sorry, I misunderstood the way you used the TLPD to calculate those numbers. But still, Mvp usually ignores Elo ratings as we've seen in GSL S2. ELO is just meaningless. I believe that Taeja was first in ELO before he had ever even been in Code S due to online tournaments. That's just ridiculous.
ELO is not meaningless. The ranking is based on players facing and winning/losing to players, not winning/losing tournaments. If you checked the participation list in those online tournaments, you would see why he got first in ELO score.
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United States15275 Posts
On October 09 2012 07:06 Mosoball wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 05:56 JJH777 wrote:On October 09 2012 05:19 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 04:46 TheBB wrote:On October 09 2012 04:23 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 03:13 TheBB wrote:On October 09 2012 02:46 ColtraneL wrote:On October 09 2012 00:58 TheBB wrote:I had some fun today. Disappointingly, this forum doesn't have a monospace environment (that I know of), so my beautiful formatting is lost. (Or, I have to work to prettify it.) Probabilities are based on the Elo ratings from TLPD, where equal weight was given to the total Elo and the matchup-specific Elo. It's not clear which weighing would yield the most accurate predictions. Taeja, Life and Rain are top three in overall Elo. That makes Taeja vs. Life essentially the highest rated match possible at the moment. How often has it happened that the two Elo leaders met in a match while they were Elo leaders, and a best of five at that? + Show Spoiler +Yes, it's "Elo", not "ELO". Anyway: Rain vs. MvpRain wins 3-0: 19.079% 3-1: 24.287% 3-2: 20.610% Total: 63.976% Mvp wins 3-0: 7.639% 3-1: 13.194% 3-2: 15.191% Total: 36.024% Most likely winner: Rain (63.976%) Most likely outcome: Rain 3-1 Mvp (24.287%) Taeja vs LifeTaeja wins 3-0: 22.514% 3-1: 26.453% 3-2: 20.721% Total: 69.688% Life wins 3-0: 6.008% 3-1: 10.964% 3-2: 13.340% Total: 30.312% Most likely winner: Taeja (69.688%) Most likely outcome: Taeja 3-1 Life (26.453%) You should precise the samples and on what they are based, because I suppose you're not using Rain's BO5 results in SC2 to do this because he only played two of them. Is it from broodwar? They're based on the Elo ratings. They, in turn, are based on performance in SC2 games only (not BW). Whether the games come from Bo5s or Bo3s or are standalone doesn't matter, they're weighted equally. In Rain's case, that's 60 games. Ok you did your maths this way. I don't think you can quite give the same value to games in a BO1 or BO3 series than games from a BO5/BO7 serie in those statistics. You basically give the same weight to games that are played in completely different situation. And yet again you need to mention the size of the sample, because except if you took only Mvp's 60 last games, you compare 316 games played over almost two years to the 60 games of Rain, that doesn't seem really meaningful to me. Well, uh, the sample size isn't that relevant. Elo ratings adjust pretty quickly, old games don't have much of an impact. As much as I would like to try to weigh different games differently, (a) it's not clear how to do it, and (b) I don't have the data anyway, and (c) Elo ratings have worked well like they are for several decades, let's not fix things that aren't broken. I'm sorry, I misunderstood the way you used the TLPD to calculate those numbers. But still, Mvp usually ignores Elo ratings as we've seen in GSL S2. ELO is just meaningless. I believe that Taeja was first in ELO before he had ever even been in Code S due to online tournaments. That's just ridiculous. ELO is not meaningless. The ranking is based on players facing and winning/losing to players, not winning/losing tournaments. If you checked the participation list in those online tournaments, you would see why he got first in ELO score.
Elo means something, it's just not a one-to-one correspondence to skill level.
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Oh god I want an MVP Taeja final so bad. The old king versus the challenger for the throne, the Cromwell, if you will.
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On October 09 2012 07:04 Entirety wrote:
Remember that Mvp's very experienced in these high pressure situations. Even if he's down 0-2, he still has the willpower and mental strength to fight back until he wins.
Remember also that in this GSL, the only series Rain has won versus Terran have been short series, Bo1 or Bo3. He has never played a long series against a Terran before. What about Mvp? Well, you can just point towards GSL Season 2, where he beat PartinG, Naniwa, and Squirtle in long series.
Also remember that Mvp is confident. What does that say about this match? Mvp isn't the cocky type who goes around like PartinG. No, Mvp is extremely humble and his confidence stems from somewhere. If he's confident that he can win, we should be confident as well.
Finally, remember that this isn't the first time that someone has looked incredibly scary. Off the top of my head, I can remember MarineKing and DongRaeGu earlier in this year, Symbol, Squirtle, PartinG (near the beginning of the year), Life (right now), TaeJa (right now), etc. All of the incredibly scary players (except the current scary ones) have all met their match and have gone down, even when it looked like they were at the very top. No one has exerted dominance for an extended period of time...
That is, no one, except Mvp in his prime.
Implying that SKT T1's By.Sun has little high pressure experience?
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On October 09 2012 07:27 Chemist391 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 07:04 Entirety wrote:
Remember that Mvp's very experienced in these high pressure situations. Even if he's down 0-2, he still has the willpower and mental strength to fight back until he wins.
Remember also that in this GSL, the only series Rain has won versus Terran have been short series, Bo1 or Bo3. He has never played a long series against a Terran before. What about Mvp? Well, you can just point towards GSL Season 2, where he beat PartinG, Naniwa, and Squirtle in long series.
Also remember that Mvp is confident. What does that say about this match? Mvp isn't the cocky type who goes around like PartinG. No, Mvp is extremely humble and his confidence stems from somewhere. If he's confident that he can win, we should be confident as well.
Finally, remember that this isn't the first time that someone has looked incredibly scary. Off the top of my head, I can remember MarineKing and DongRaeGu earlier in this year, Symbol, Squirtle, PartinG (near the beginning of the year), Life (right now), TaeJa (right now), etc. All of the incredibly scary players (except the current scary ones) have all met their match and have gone down, even when it looked like they were at the very top. No one has exerted dominance for an extended period of time...
That is, no one, except Mvp in his prime. Implying that SKT T1's By.Sun has little high pressure experience?
i'm reading it more as praising mvp than bashing by.rain though
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rain is going to crush mvp 3-0
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On October 09 2012 07:54 pieisamazing wrote:
rain is going to crush mvp 3-0
I'll take you up on that bet. 3-0 Mvp over rain.
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EPT
