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Standard LR rules apply: No balance whining, no KeSPA vs. GomTV inciting, no excessive derailing ESPECIALLY when games are on. This is not a thread for you to argue with other people. |
On October 08 2012 21:21 ElephantBaby wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2012 19:41 sinigang wrote:On October 08 2012 14:58 GolemMadness wrote:On October 08 2012 14:13 sinigang wrote:
So maybe now we can finally see how BW skill translates to SC2:
Here were their stats in BW:
MVP:
All: 30-46 (39.47%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W L L L L W L L W L
By.Sun:
All: 31-31 (50.00%) | Last 10 (old -> recent): W L W L L W W W W W
Game on!! Meaning what... Well MVP obviously sucked in BW, and Sun/Rain was pretty good. If Rain wins, then it means MVP's level of play isn't that good after all and may actually be just as bad as he was in BW. Then ESF players have a problem next GSL when KeSPA pros have fully practiced... Also, MVP vs Flash record in BW was 1-6, so I can't wait to see those two go head to head in SC2. Man, MVP did not suck in BW, he is pretty good, and up coming terran in BW when he retired. People need to understand a 40% winrate with decent game numbers in proleague means you are very good.
MVP was definitely improving and worth sending out in Proleague but 40% win rate is shitty both in SC2 and BW
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Honestly, I love all 4 players!
I'd love to see a TvT, TvZ, or TvP final! Taeja V Mvp, Taeja V Rain, and Mvp V Life could all be amazing.
Going to go with my heart here and vote Mvp and Taeja to meet in the finals. I could see Life or Rain winning too. I just don't want to watch a PvZ, even though Life V Rain would be awesome.
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On October 09 2012 00:58 TheBB wrote:I had some fun today. Disappointingly, this forum doesn't have a monospace environment (that I know of), so my beautiful formatting is lost. (Or, I have to work to prettify it.) Probabilities are based on the Elo ratings from TLPD, where equal weight was given to the total Elo and the matchup-specific Elo. It's not clear which weighing would yield the most accurate predictions. Taeja, Life and Rain are top three in overall Elo. That makes Taeja vs. Life essentially the highest rated match possible at the moment. How often has it happened that the two Elo leaders met in a match while they were Elo leaders, and a best of five at that? + Show Spoiler +Yes, it's "Elo", not "ELO". Anyway: Rain vs. MvpRain wins 3-0: 19.079% 3-1: 24.287% 3-2: 20.610% Total: 63.976% Mvp wins 3-0: 7.639% 3-1: 13.194% 3-2: 15.191% Total: 36.024% Most likely winner: Rain (63.976%) Most likely outcome: Rain 3-1 Mvp (24.287%) Taeja vs LifeTaeja wins 3-0: 22.514% 3-1: 26.453% 3-2: 20.721% Total: 69.688% Life wins 3-0: 6.008% 3-1: 10.964% 3-2: 13.340% Total: 30.312% Most likely winner: Taeja (69.688%) Most likely outcome: Taeja 3-1 Life (26.453%)
You should precise the samples and on what they are based, because I suppose you're not using Rain's BO5 results in SC2 to do this because he only played two of them. Is it from broodwar?
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MVP lets do it! (again) Your GSL wisdom cannot be matched.
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Honestly, I don't see MVP losing to Rain. With MVP, you never know what he's going to pull out. He's also got Happy to help him with planning because Happy beat Rain 2-1. I'm going with a MVP 3-1.
With TaeJa vs Life, I'm pretty sure TaeJa is going to come out of this one. I remember back during the GSTL, Life was the ace/sniper and that was honestly the first time I had ever heard of him. TaeJa, I've known him back from SlayerS and after he joined Liquid, he's been tearing it up everywhere. I'm feeling a TaeJa 3-1 because of his ability to hold all-ins.
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On October 09 2012 02:46 ColtraneL wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 00:58 TheBB wrote:I had some fun today. Disappointingly, this forum doesn't have a monospace environment (that I know of), so my beautiful formatting is lost. (Or, I have to work to prettify it.) Probabilities are based on the Elo ratings from TLPD, where equal weight was given to the total Elo and the matchup-specific Elo. It's not clear which weighing would yield the most accurate predictions. Taeja, Life and Rain are top three in overall Elo. That makes Taeja vs. Life essentially the highest rated match possible at the moment. How often has it happened that the two Elo leaders met in a match while they were Elo leaders, and a best of five at that? + Show Spoiler +Yes, it's "Elo", not "ELO". Anyway: Rain vs. MvpRain wins 3-0: 19.079% 3-1: 24.287% 3-2: 20.610% Total: 63.976% Mvp wins 3-0: 7.639% 3-1: 13.194% 3-2: 15.191% Total: 36.024% Most likely winner: Rain (63.976%) Most likely outcome: Rain 3-1 Mvp (24.287%) Taeja vs LifeTaeja wins 3-0: 22.514% 3-1: 26.453% 3-2: 20.721% Total: 69.688% Life wins 3-0: 6.008% 3-1: 10.964% 3-2: 13.340% Total: 30.312% Most likely winner: Taeja (69.688%) Most likely outcome: Taeja 3-1 Life (26.453%) You should precise the samples and on what they are based, because I suppose you're not using Rain's BO5 results in SC2 to do this because he only played two of them. Is it from broodwar?
They're based on the Elo ratings. They, in turn, are based on performance in SC2 games only (not BW). Whether the games come from Bo5s or Bo3s or are standalone doesn't matter, they're weighted equally. In Rain's case, that's 60 games.
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I DON'T THINK MY BODY CAN CONTAIN ALL THIS AWESOME.
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United States15275 Posts
On October 09 2012 00:58 TheBB wrote:I had some fun today. Disappointingly, this forum doesn't have a monospace environment (that I know of), so my beautiful formatting is lost. (Or, I have to work to prettify it.) Probabilities are based on the Elo ratings from TLPD, where equal weight was given to the total Elo and the matchup-specific Elo. It's not clear which weighing would yield the most accurate predictions. Taeja, Life and Rain are top three in overall Elo. That makes Taeja vs. Life essentially the highest rated match possible at the moment. How often has it happened that the two Elo leaders met in a match while they were Elo leaders, and a best of five at that? + Show Spoiler +Yes, it's "Elo", not "ELO". Anyway: Rain vs. MvpRain wins 3-0: 19.079% 3-1: 24.287% 3-2: 20.610% Total: 63.976% Mvp wins 3-0: 7.639% 3-1: 13.194% 3-2: 15.191% Total: 36.024% Most likely winner: Rain (63.976%) Most likely outcome: Rain 3-1 Mvp (24.287%) Taeja vs LifeTaeja wins 3-0: 22.514% 3-1: 26.453% 3-2: 20.721% Total: 69.688% Life wins 3-0: 6.008% 3-1: 10.964% 3-2: 13.340% Total: 30.312% Most likely winner: Taeja (69.688%) Most likely outcome: Taeja 3-1 Life (26.453%)
How much influence did the matchup statistics have on this analysis?
On October 08 2012 18:06 Dodgin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2012 18:00 Waxangel wrote:eh, I like Life a lot this tournament, tho I'm forbidden from actually picking Mvp to lose  I don't think Life can beat Taeja, not after seeing him vs keen in GSTL.
I don't think Taeja can beat Life, not after seeing him vs Monster in IPTL.
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Wouldn't miss this for the world.
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cannot not freaking wait...
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All this not believing people...... fueling Mvp's next win and championship :p.
At least Wax will think otherwise :D
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On October 08 2012 11:40 SidianTheBard wrote:
MVP going to crush Rain. Everybody always underestimates him but he keeps on winning.
Mvp 3-1
Life gong to crush Rain. Everybody always underestimates him but he keeps on winning.
Life 3-1
Well technically the argument could be reworded like so
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Fuck yeah Rain vs Taeja finals.
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Russian Federation601 Posts
if mvp says he will win - he will win :p
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On October 08 2012 19:08 Aquila- wrote:
People, when will you finally understand it? Mvp doesn't lose. Ever.
Mvp 3-2 Rain
Taeja 3-1 Life
Namma disagrees
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Rain 3-0 and Life 3-2.
I do like Taeja but, I feel like Life is gonna throw in too many strong timings and early rushes and beat Taeja in the early-mid game.
BUT I HOPE TAEJA WINS :D:D:D
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Mvp will take this! #BelieveintheKing
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I love your live report threads, thanks!
Also hoping for life vs rain or taeja vs rain finals!
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On October 08 2012 17:50 Entirety wrote:
Wow, a lot of people are cheering for Rain.
Just like how lots of people were cheering for Naniwa.
Just like how lots of people were cheering for PartinG.
Mvp, please stomp Rain and teach them to never doubt again! :D
exactly! Shame on anyone ever doubting Mvp. It should be ban worthy.
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EPT
